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A wild theory I have regarding the behold “issue”
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I suspect that once a player hit a certain amount of super rare/legendary crew, there is some backend process that weights beholds for that player to contain crew they already have, be it fully fused crew or not fully fused crew.
If true, this would be really hard to find definitive evidence for.
What do you guys think?
If true, this would be really hard to find definitive evidence for.
What do you guys think?
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Task Force Pike/Garrett's Giants, Founder
Task Force April, Fleet Founder Emeritus
Newfie Central, Squad Founder, In Memoriam
Task Force Pike/Garrett's Giants, Founder
Task Force April, Fleet Founder Emeritus
Newfie Central, Squad Founder, In Memoriam
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Oh, also, if you're on a Voyage and your first set of AM gets you 3 super rare characters and you get excited and refresh the voyage, you're totally getting straight trainers after that.
You're right, the backend process is called probability. There are currently 221 SR crew in the game. That makes 1,774,630 different combinations that come up in a behold. If you have no SR then any of those will offer you 3 new choices.
When you get to 150 SR immortalized then 551,300 of those options will be all immortalized. 57,155 will be all new, and the remaining will have a mix FF and not.
So that's 31% chance to be all FF and only 3% chance to be all new. And the odds are likely worse because of all the crew not in the portal yet. There is no nefarious programming necessary. Just simple probability.
I am almost at the point of proving this with the Voyages drops, as I am only missing 7 SR crew now from the entire collection, and Voyages drops an SR I need about 1 in 4 times, otherwise it drops nothing.
The Voyages crew drops are the same for Portal, so I believe it exists there as well. Once you get to a certain level of crew, as you/we speculate, the beholds become more seldom, perhaps almost only for GOLD crew. Again, trying to give you something you don't have, but if you get an SR behold and you already have all 3 immortalized, think if you have one or all in the freezer? I have noticed this more and more as I get higher.
As @GhostStalker mentioned, the exact same thing happened to me today. I had never gotten a top level Dabo before, but there was Kurn (Who has been sitting FE at level 100 for about a year), and he dropped for me on first spin to add his 3rd *.
Just food for thought, but I would stake my 35 years of programming on it! (Yes, I am like NEO, I See Code!)
I really am not concerned about SR beholds being all FF. I am after legendaries. I currently only need three M-113 and one AoS La Forge. So the current odds for me on voyage is very low. Portal Beholds improve my chances but I need a lot of them to have a good chance of getting what I need. Just off the top of my head I would say 73.
Edit: From list in portal 162 SR. Did a quick calc. 96.3% chance for me that a SR behold will be FF. Obviously my 73 above is low. I probably need double that.
The problem once I pull a AoS La Forge my odds get worse. The odds of an all FF SR behold become 98.1%. Edit: on the average it would take 166 SR beholds.
My current voyage drop is 1.2% chance. The problem with voyages, we do not know if anything else factors in to the drop chance. Suppose my dilemma choice divides the available SR crew down. My choice might keep me from having gotten the crew I needed.
@Commander Sinclair
You may have something there about getting crew that are in your freezer. It has been a while but I too had thought I was observing that. It just that I forgot about that because I am more concerned about legendaries.
I had the same issue with Kurn. Never saw him in the time that I've been playing (since August 2017). He randomly dropped on a voyage, then I pulled him in a pack the following day.
There are still a few crew that I haven't seen at all (Captain T'Pol being one).
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Not showing up before and a whole lot of him now... I'm 95% sure he wasn't in standard premium until the last portal update..
That would explain why so few before and so many now..
For the longest time Drafted McCoy and Professor Scott were two purples that I would never get in a behold.
Drafted McCoy has sat in my crew quarters waiting for his final star longer than anyone else I've ever had. I have nearly everyone else in the regular portal FF, but McCoy just sits there staring at me. I cannot wait to send him to the vault one day.
Aarg they got me too. Though I think it just because I have so many super rares immortalized. Would be good if we could get a token 5k or 10k honor when this happens or a legendary or something else.
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I got two copies of chakotay in that event. I was lucky enough to ff him with a dabo spin and a voyage.
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She is elusive indeed. I had her at 2* for about a year, then 2 dropped in back to back Voyages one week about a month ago. There is still hope!
The fact that you need "hundreds of crew" pretty much excludes you from this thread.