Gauntlet
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[RO]BitterDevil
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Ofc...GAUNTLET!
I've been quiet for a while...trying to accept the status quo...but, this is too much! Into my 38 streak...i get VASTLY outcritted by an opponent who had the same crit chance as me 25%...It pissed me off, esspecially since it was an inferior oponent...but i go into my savings and pony up 50 dil to keep the streak going...next round...SAME **tsk tsk**!
This is ridiculous! This is GREED!
I've been quiet for a while...trying to accept the status quo...but, this is too much! Into my 38 streak...i get VASTLY outcritted by an opponent who had the same crit chance as me 25%...It pissed me off, esspecially since it was an inferior oponent...but i go into my savings and pony up 50 dil to keep the streak going...next round...SAME **tsk tsk**!
This is ridiculous! This is GREED!
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Show me the math formula for bad luck. Or if by some reason you can't, give me the definition of bad luck.
Perhaps you need to take a deep breath and settle down a little. We have all lost a Gauntlet round when the odds were very much in our favour and felt a bit miffed by the loss, but these losses will occur.
That was arogant! It's not the losing part that is the problem but the part where the unlikely happens often.
Perhaps you need to take a step back and dial down your condenscension.
dude go to school --> gaussian distribution model
So in what grade did you learn probabilities? Or in you're sad attempt to look smart you forgot what's the difference between school and college/university?
What ?
So you know probabilities ?
I have no clue about Us education system, but you should know gaussian distribution model.
And because of that there is no need to be mad about losing a fight in gauntlet .
It's a combination of bad luck and bias.
First off, it's not cumulative. Flip a coin and get a head, next time you flip it's still 50/50, and there is nothing to say you won't get 10 heads in a row - probabilities even out over an infinite sample set. Anyone who has martingaled at roulette can tell you that, I've seen people lose thousands doing it.
Secondly there's bias, people tend to take challenges they think they can win, so the failures stand out more. When my characters are 'tired' I'll still use them, I've won around a quarter where I've been outmatched, even improbably outcritted 45% and 65% crit chance opponents.
Those wins don't quite take the sting out of watching BO Troi beat Phlox, but hey, nature of gambling.
I also don't get regular spending on Gauntlet. I spent once as an experiment when it first started, but didn't see any advantage over just waiting.
I've managed 30+ streaks, managed a second placing, usually place in the top 10 when I aim for it, have got a Locutus and 2 Guinans out of it, and all of that without spending dil.
Jim
Both times I lucked out with a Locutus and my first Guinan, I was nursing a mild hangover.
Now I'm not saying a few cheeky Jack Daniels will tilt the odds in your favour, but not much in the way of a downside either
That's almost verbatim from the wiki.
Why do people who hide behind this fallacy tend to forget two VERY important things:
1. In the same fallacy you also have a caveat...which states that when a very unlilely result becomes likely, the ods are most surely rigged;
2. That is related to REAL LIFE CIRCUMSTANCES, not virtual and controlled ones.
tl;dr: you're mixing apples with oranges!
LE: again with the "bad luck" BS. Why not "because aliens/gremlins/santa" or even worse "cause god wants it to happen"?
I'm european...and I never encountered this in either grade or highschool.
And again...as usual, i have to repeat myself IN WRITING(i don't wanna know how u follow a convo live): I am not mad because i lost, i am mad because it is common place to lose when you shouldn't! Because the unlikely is very likely to happen.
sry thats not true. It is your subjective view.
i spend a lot time in the gauntlet, and i never get the impression it is not working correct.
Try to use the gauntlet calculator if you think i´m wrong.
I have...the odds of 3/3 crits for a 5% are 1:40000...it happend at least 4 times now...and i only reached 5k rounds.
Btw...again, 45% vs 45%....at least 50% better prof for me....check out the result
I have only once or twice won a match while being the underdog...so...
Surely in your 38 successive victories you may have had some luck yourself...?
Wrong --> not 1:40000
correct --> 1/8000
[STJ] Wendell is absolutely right, you can lose the one you should win,
and can winn the one you should lose.
1. I only pick rounds where i have at least 70% chance of winning
2. I was already 100 dili down to keep it running
3. As i said earlier and in another post, i only won t most twice when i was the underdog (i do this when i either am at the end of the gauntlet, just lost or out of merits and need to refresh)
1/10000 cause it's 0.01%...but to have 4/5000?
Yes...and you could inherit Google in the next 5 min...
Do you know the difference between theoretical possibility and practical?
P(1 win) = 98%
P(2) = .98*.98 = 96%
P(3) = (.98)^3 = 94%
P(5) = 90%
P(10) = 82%
P(15) = 74%
P(20) = 67%
P(25) = 62%
P(30) = 56%
P(35) = 50%
P(38) = 47%
Now, I'm pretty sure you had rounds where your expected % was higher than 98%, but I'm also pretty sure you had rounds that were significantly lower. Even taking your average % down to 97% yields a 31.4% chance of your streak going to 38. 95% win rate would get to 38 14% of the time.
Basically, you're going to lose some. If you give us the exact strength of your crew vs their crew (since it's impossible to divine from your images) then I could give you the exact probability of that matchup, but I expect that wouldn't change your perception.
Something to also consider is that the variance of a character at 25% crit is *HUGE*. Frequently, they don't crit at all. Sometimes, they'll crit much more often than the "should". When I'm deep in a streak, I avoid 25%+ crew like the plague because eventually one of them is going to get hot.
Unlikely things happening isn't a sign of a bad RNG. In fact, it's a sign of an RNG that is behaving as it's supposed to. If unlikely things happen at a rate higher than expected, then that might be cause for concern.
Don't do that. Problem solved.
Until you post the exact stats, I'm skeptical that any of your matchups were actually 1/10000.