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103 basic 10 pulls

SvenLundgrenSvenLundgren ✭✭✭✭
in The Bridge
So I was totally bored while my shuttles are out and had 103 Basic 10 pulls.....

1 4* behold - took O'Brien
mvwqwdv6qa8v.jpeg

45 Borg Sphere Schematics

7225 Honor from:
10 3*
104 2*
42 1*
Starfleet Commission: August 12, 2017

Comments

  • [RotP]Ran Airen[RotP]Ran Airen ✭✭✭✭
    Not bad odds. I have tracked my last 950 pulls and only have five 4 or 5 star pulls.
    Member of Rise of the Phoenix.
  • Synthetic CommanderSynthetic Commander ✭✭✭✭✭
    DraftedMcCoy wrote: »
    I pulled a basic 10x from the portal this morning. It was from the event rewards.

    Picked Soval.
    lmppkrkts7n39.png

    Based on my information, I think the last time this happenedwas exactly one year ago. Strange.

    Soval??? Man you need this webpage. :)
    https://old.reddit.com/r/StarTrekTimelines/comments/9222um/the_big_book_of_behold_advice/
  • Peachtree RexPeachtree Rex ✭✭✭✭✭
    SvenLundgren wrote: »
    So I was totally bored while my shuttles are out and had 103 Basic 10 pulls.....

    1 4* behold - took O'Brien
    mvwqwdv6qa8v.jpeg

    45 Borg Sphere Schematics

    7225 Honor from:
    10 3*
    104 2*
    42 1*

    So crunching some numbers:
    7z5jw5c8xql9.png

    I'm interested in how you've reported your 2* drops. To my knowledge, all 10x credit pulls are guaranteed a 2* drop, so I would expect 103 pulls to have no less than 103 2*s. However, that leaves 9 "free" drops to fill out the pack. I would expect those 9 slots to reflect the published drop rates.

    From your numbers, 1/2/4/5* drops all seem to be pretty close to true. However, I am unable to reconcile the 2* drops. If your 104 drops aren't including the "guaranteed" ones, then you saw nearly quadruple the expected number. If they don't include the "guaranteed" ones, then you only saw ONE that wasn't a guarantee and saw a tiny fraction of the expected drop rates.

    Thoughts on what might have caused this?
  • AviTrekAviTrek ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think we need to think about those guaranteed drops a little differently. What I've always assumed(but haven't proven) is that DB does 10 random pulls, if you get a 2* then they do nothing, if you don't then they add a random 2*. So you only get more than 1 2* if they both randomly drop which should be 3.3% of the time. I just checked my record of 1224 credit 10x pulls. I had 38 instances where I got exactly 2 2* crew. So the observed 3.1% matches the predicted 3.3% pretty well.

    For his 103 pulls, I'd have expect 3-4 instances of 2 2*, but only getting 1 isn't that shocking given the sample size.
  • SvenLundgrenSvenLundgren ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2018
    There were probably half with at least 2 crew.
    Starfleet Commission: August 12, 2017
  • DraftedMcCoyDraftedMcCoy ✭✭✭✭
    Synthetic Commander wrote: »
    DraftedMcCoy wrote: »
    I pulled a basic 10x from the portal this morning. It was from the event rewards.

    Picked Soval.
    lmppkrkts7n39.png

    Based on my information, I think the last time this happenedwas exactly one year ago. Strange.

    Soval??? Man you need this webpage. :)
    https://old.reddit.com/r/StarTrekTimelines/comments/9222um/the_big_book_of_behold_advice/


    I wasnt crazy about this behold. Im not big on non-canon characters and Soval was a bright spot in Enterprise for me. I did check out the wiki to view stats beforehand. Sometimes since I have so many crew it just comes down to who I like better

    Yar was a close second, but Im just not frazy about that variant
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    DraftedMcCoy wrote: »
    Synthetic Commander wrote: »
    DraftedMcCoy wrote: »
    I pulled a basic 10x from the portal this morning. It was from the event rewards.

    Picked Soval.
    lmppkrkts7n39.png

    Based on my information, I think the last time this happenedwas exactly one year ago. Strange.

    Soval??? Man you need this webpage. :)
    https://old.reddit.com/r/StarTrekTimelines/comments/9222um/the_big_book_of_behold_advice/


    I wasnt crazy about this behold. Im not big on non-canon characters and Soval was a bright spot in Enterprise for me. I did check out the wiki to view stats beforehand. Sometimes since I have so many crew it just comes down to who I like better

    Yar was a close second, but Im just not frazy about that variant

    I’m with you on that. Yar is a good skill set but that Soval is a cool looking card. I went with him on a behold over better stats myself
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