Home› The Bridge

5*s Don't Drop In Practice & Skill Pack

Captain Greg PorterCaptain Greg Porter ✭✭
in The Bridge
I pulled 7 of the packs trying to get Picard, Mobile Doctor or April. I got 4 Nexus Kirks and 3 Captain Janeways which I already had FF/FE'd. I knew I would get some of them but not one 5*. Does anyone else have a similar experience?

Comments

  • AviTrekAviTrek ✭✭✭✭✭
    The chance of a 5* is 10%. Buying 7 packs, you should never expect to get a 5*. You had a 52% chance to get a 5*.
  • Jim SteeleJim Steele ✭✭✭✭✭
    AviTrek wrote: »
    The chance of a 5* is 10%. Buying 7 packs, you should never expect to get a 5*. You had a 52% chance to get a 5*.
    Precisely why I don't buy any packs anymore. I've not had a begold in 30+ packs so 7 is within 'normal' limits.



    DB: Do Better
  • SSR BarkleySSR Barkley ✭✭✭✭✭
    AA Sisko has gone 45 packs or so in one of those 6 pack offers with none of the new legendary. its just RNG
    /SSR/ Barkley - semi retired
    Second Star to the Right - Join Today!
  • AviTrekAviTrek ✭✭✭✭✭
    Disaster Beam (formerly Jim Steele) wrote: »
    AviTrek wrote: »
    The chance of a 5* is 10%. Buying 7 packs, you should never expect to get a 5*. You had a 52% chance to get a 5*.
    Precisely why I don't buy any packs anymore. I've not had a begold in 30+ packs so 7 is within 'normal' limits.



    I won't buy a pack if I have a 4* ff in it. And I NEVER go shopping for a 5*, it will only end in disappointment.
  • RogueAngylRogueAngyl ✭✭✭
    edited November 2018
    I've had some very odd issues with packs as of late. A couple weeks ago I bought 6 event packs because I really wanted the 5*. I got the same 4* that I purchased with the $9.99 crew deal. Not the first time I got stuck on a character in multiple packs when buying the $9.99 event offer. Expressed my concerns about the improbability of pulling the same character six times in a row (more concerned about this being a glitch than trying to get something extra out of it, the odds of my pulls from the last two events being something in the 1:1300 range), and CS basically told me it's my problem because it's a "game of chance" and to get over it.

    So take CS's response to me and apply here I guess.
    My 8-Point STT Strategy:

    1. Voyage.
    2. Have fun. If something isn't fun, don't do it.
    3. Only pursue characters I care about.
    4. Contribute to the fleet.
    5. No more spending beyond monthly cards.
    6. Have fun.
    7. Voyage.
    8. Have fun!
  • Frank?Frank? ✭✭✭✭✭
    My streak was a few weeks ago on the Tuesday 3x3 Pack for Fennim.

    First pull was Annorax, who I already immortalized when he first came out. At this point, I know golds are dropping, but I can't confirm Fennim was. Then I look on Discord and see someone report that they got him on the first pull. So I know the loot table is good, and I can proceed with the chase.

    Over the span of the 3 days that portal was up, I did *46* additional pulls. 46. None of the 3 featured golds dropped. I did get gold beholds with other characters, but the featured crew drops were all purple.

    I quit Tuesday 3x3 packs after that. That moment is what broke my Pokemon addiction to this game. Astrosciences Sulu for $110 a chance of a pull was close, but this did it for me.
  • RogueAngylRogueAngyl ✭✭✭
    eXo | Frank wrote: »
    Over the span of the 3 days that portal was up, I did *46* additional pulls. 46. None of the 3 featured golds dropped.

    FYI... Less than a 0.8% chance of that happening.
    My 8-Point STT Strategy:

    1. Voyage.
    2. Have fun. If something isn't fun, don't do it.
    3. Only pursue characters I care about.
    4. Contribute to the fleet.
    5. No more spending beyond monthly cards.
    6. Have fun.
    7. Voyage.
    8. Have fun!
  • TaskerTasker ✭✭✭
    All those Tuesday golds end up in the portal eventually anyway. Patience will be rewarded.

    Unless, you know, the game goes under.
  • (HGH)Apollo(HGH)Apollo ✭✭✭✭✭
    I only buy event packs on faction events. Better chance of legendary and you get the extra super rare 1/4 in that event you need.
    Let’s fly!
  • Synthetic CommanderSynthetic Commander ✭✭✭✭✭
    RogueAngyl wrote: »
    eXo | Frank wrote: »
    Over the span of the 3 days that portal was up, I did *46* additional pulls. 46. None of the 3 featured golds dropped.

    FYI... Less than a 0.8% chance of that happening.

    My (admittedly limited) understanding of statistics, tells me that the number of pulls does not change your odds of success. If you had a 1% chance with one pull, you would also have a 1% chance with 100 pulls, or 1000 pulls. A larger number of attempts would eventually get you closer to an expected average 1%, thus 1000 pulls would likely be close to 10 drops if we expect a 1% drop rate (I don't know what it is), while 100 pulls could be 1 drop, but is a smaller sample size to reach the expected overall average so even then is still risky.

    To be clear, I am NOT representing that a Tuesday pull is a 1% event legendary drop rate, I don't know what the programmed rate is. This is just an easy number to illustrate my point.
  • RogueAngylRogueAngyl ✭✭✭
    edited November 2018
    Synthetic Commander wrote: »
    RogueAngyl wrote: »
    eXo | Frank wrote: »
    Over the span of the 3 days that portal was up, I did *46* additional pulls. 46. None of the 3 featured golds dropped.

    FYI... Less than a 0.8% chance of that happening.

    My (admittedly limited) understanding of statistics, tells me that the number of pulls does not change your odds of success. If you had a 1% chance with one pull, you would also have a 1% chance with 100 pulls, or 1000 pulls. A larger number of attempts would eventually get you closer to an expected average 1%, thus 1000 pulls would likely be close to 10 drops if we expect a 1% drop rate (I don't know what it is), while 100 pulls could be 1 drop, but is a smaller sample size to reach the expected overall average so even then is still risky.

    To be clear, I am NOT representing that a Tuesday pull is a 1% event legendary drop rate, I don't know what the programmed rate is. This is just an easy number to illustrate my point.

    I'm going on what I've heard about even packs having a 10% chance of event 5*.

    Your right in the sense that buying more packs does not increase the odds of each individual pack. If I buy six packs, it does not mean that the sixth pack has a greater chance of dropping something 5* in of itself. However, when you have a large number of events, probably suggests that there should be a certain distribution of outcomes. This does not dictate the outcome of any specific pack, though.

    For instance, if you have a 10% chance of dropping 5*, one might think that buying 10 packs guarantees it. This is wrong, it's only about 65% chance of getting one 5* out of any of those packs. Here's the math on that:
    Probability= 1-(.9^10).
    Since it's a 90% chance of dropping 4*, you want 1 minus the probability of every pack being 4*.
    My 8-Point STT Strategy:

    1. Voyage.
    2. Have fun. If something isn't fun, don't do it.
    3. Only pursue characters I care about.
    4. Contribute to the fleet.
    5. No more spending beyond monthly cards.
    6. Have fun.
    7. Voyage.
    8. Have fun!
  • (HGH)Apollo(HGH)Apollo ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited November 2018
    Synthetic Commander wrote: »
    RogueAngyl wrote: »
    eXo | Frank wrote: »
    Over the span of the 3 days that portal was up, I did *46* additional pulls. 46. None of the 3 featured golds dropped.

    FYI... Less than a 0.8% chance of that happening.

    My (admittedly limited) understanding of statistics, tells me that the number of pulls does not change your odds of success. If you had a 1% chance with one pull, you would also have a 1% chance with 100 pulls, or 1000 pulls. A larger number of attempts would eventually get you closer to an expected average 1%, thus 1000 pulls would likely be close to 10 drops if we expect a 1% drop rate (I don't know what it is), while 100 pulls could be 1 drop, but is a smaller sample size to reach the expected overall average so even then is still risky.

    To be clear, I am NOT representing that a Tuesday pull is a 1% event legendary drop rate, I don't know what the programmed rate is. This is just an easy number to illustrate my point.
    But this is not unweighted dice in the real world but a computer program that could be flawed. I have found that the packs can get locked in on super rares and no legendary pulls. I have found that if I pull three packs with no legendary it helps if I leave the pack screen then reenter it and buy packs again. Otherwise when I have kept pulling the game just seems stuck in super rare draws and I could draw many packs without a single legendary. I have no proof of this but my own experience. Make of it what you will.
    Let’s fly!
  • [ISA] Raven[ISA] Raven ✭✭✭
    Disaster Beam (formerly Jim Steele) wrote: »
    AviTrek wrote: »
    The chance of a 5* is 10%. Buying 7 packs, you should never expect to get a 5*. You had a 52% chance to get a 5*.
    Precisely why I don't buy any packs anymore. I've not had a begold in 30+ packs so 7 is within 'normal' limits.



    Precisely why i don't understand statistics..
  • Mark DMark D ✭✭
    [SJ] Admiral Aki wrote: »
    Captain Greg Porter wrote: »
    which I already had FF/FE'd.

    The first rule of Pack buying is: Don't buy the pack if you have something FF'd ;)

    The thought the first rule was don't talk about pack buying.
  • AviTrekAviTrek ✭✭✭✭✭
    Synthetic Commander wrote: »
    RogueAngyl wrote: »
    eXo | Frank wrote: »
    Over the span of the 3 days that portal was up, I did *46* additional pulls. 46. None of the 3 featured golds dropped.

    FYI... Less than a 0.8% chance of that happening.

    My (admittedly limited) understanding of statistics, tells me that the number of pulls does not change your odds of success. If you had a 1% chance with one pull, you would also have a 1% chance with 100 pulls, or 1000 pulls. A larger number of attempts would eventually get you closer to an expected average 1%, thus 1000 pulls would likely be close to 10 drops if we expect a 1% drop rate (I don't know what it is), while 100 pulls could be 1 drop, but is a smaller sample size to reach the expected overall average so even then is still risky.

    To be clear, I am NOT representing that a Tuesday pull is a 1% event legendary drop rate, I don't know what the programmed rate is. This is just an easy number to illustrate my point.

    It's assumed to be 10% chance of a gold from the pack. And you're right that the number of pulls does not change the odds of success for any individual pull, but you can say what the odds of losing 46 times in a row is. For independent trials it's (1-Probability of Success) ^ Number of Trials. In this case that was (1-.1)^46 = .9^46 = .0079 = .8%
Sign In or Register to comment.