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It would be great if the displayed shuttle success percentages got fixed...

[TFA] Celeres[TFA] Celeres ✭✭✭✭
in The Bridge
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First Officer - Task Force April
Squadron Leader - [TFA] Bateson’s Bulldogs
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    Commander SinclairCommander Sinclair ✭✭✭✭✭
    like, NOT using RNG for the final "roll" toward success or failure!
    I want to become a Dilionaire...
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    This Sisko1This Sisko1 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's constantly 10 points lower between shown and actual. Been tracking for almost a year now. Some events I'm closer to shown, most I'm not. I'm usually top 100 with a few top 50 finishes so tons of shuttles.
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    Burnham, MichelleBurnham, Michelle ✭✭✭
    The results make more sense if you take 10% off what is shown. You don't get quite as many wtf moments if you do that.
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    MagisseMagisse ✭✭✭✭✭
    Boy, with all the Galaxy events lately I've really missed these threads...
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    PallidynePallidyne ✭✭✭✭✭
    Trying my damndest to post a screen shot and it ain't working, but I'm seeing some odd behavior where stats that a character does not have but are on the node are being boosted. Try it yourself and see if I'm just glitching.. Maybe hidden stats but I'm not sure I should see the amount of jump that I am.
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    BenSon2007BenSon2007 ✭✭
    Magisse wrote: »
    Boy, with all the Galaxy events lately I've really missed these threads...

    Yeah, like this catchy song "what the dots mean under the missions", that 's played all day long...
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    [TFA] Celeres[TFA] Celeres ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2017
    Pallidyne wrote: »
    Trying my damndest to post a screen shot and it ain't working, but I'm seeing some odd behavior where stats that a character does not have but are on the node are being boosted. Try it yourself and see if I'm just glitching.. Maybe hidden stats but I'm not sure I should see the amount of jump that I am.

    Yeah, this. I'm definitely seeing bonuses supposedly applied in skill mismatch situations, but the display percentages are also generally higher than the effective rate. RNG itself isn't the problem; it's more like being told you're rolling a d12 when you're really rolling a d6, and you need a 5 to save.
    First Officer - Task Force April
    Squadron Leader - [TFA] Bateson’s Bulldogs
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    [SoCo] Dr. Acular[SoCo] Dr. Acular ✭✭
    4 Shuttels (~83,00% <- shuttle Win chance
    _____________________________________________
    4 wins 47,46%
    3 wins 38,88%
    2 wins 11,95%
    1 wins 1,63%
    0 wins 0,08%
    _______________________________________________
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    [RO]BitterDevil[RO]BitterDevil ✭✭✭
    so far, with the smallest shuttle percentage being 90%, i have a 3/4 return rate...one shuttle out of 4, fails.
    And just now, i got a 3/4 fail...also at 90-95%...
    But the system works great! Do not doubt the system!
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    Burnham, MichelleBurnham, Michelle ✭✭✭
    This event my return rate has been okay, I'd say good, except for the first time I got to 3,500 VP when all my shuttles failed spectacularly overnight, none below 73%. The next two failed as well and I was firmly kicked out of the top 3,000. I've been making grounds since but not enough. I generally expect a failure rate of 1 in 3 at shuttles 75% and above.
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    Captain IanQCaptain IanQ ✭✭
    when your shuttles fail at 98% chance of success and you have event crew on board those shuttles and have applied non time boosts to the shuttles to get it to 98% and it still fails - one can understand how frustrating the rng gets - granted there's a 2% chance of failure but still.....
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    [DB:DB] Deb[DB:DB] Deb ✭✭
    edited October 2017
    Agree with everything that's been said. One curiosity I noticed... if things were truly random, you'd expect differences both ways. I've only seen "unfavorable " differences.

    But Brutus is an honorable man...
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    Odo MarmarosaOdo Marmarosa ✭✭✭✭✭
    (Start Brag) This event the RNG gods are smiling on me, as I've been sending out shuttles ranging from 50-95% and consistently getting 3 or 4 successes. (End Brag) Either that, or Harry Mudd is manipulating things behind the scenes so he can get aboard my ship. :D

    These are, of cource, just ancedontal observations. The odds seem fine to me...I've had streaks of unlikely failures in the past, but not regularly enough to be concerned. Since people are complaining about it during every faction event though, I am curious. I'll start recording my own data after the event ends, and I'll even send out low percentage shuttles to see if the probabilities are reliable on that end too.
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    Jim SteeleJim Steele ✭✭✭✭✭
    Currently the AND missions don'c calculate properly which is a little annoying but not a game breaker.
    It just requires a little foresight when sending out shuttles thats all.

    Sure its annoying when they fail but I just keep sending them out anyways.

    Jim
    DB: Do Better
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    PallidynePallidyne ✭✭✭✭✭
    Jim Steele wrote: »
    Currently the AND missions don'c calculate properly which is a little annoying but not a game breaker.
    It just requires a little foresight when sending out shuttles thats all.

    Sure its annoying when they fail but I just keep sending them out anyways.

    Jim

    What kind of discrepancy is it? Not calcing the second skill correctly?
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    JibbletJibblet ✭
    I sent a ticket regarding AND missions and they told me everything is working fine, I just don't understand statistics
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    Paladin 27Paladin 27 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2017
    The and missions treat a boost to the secondary stat the same as one to a primary stat. An example is if you have a character with 1000 primary and 500 secondary. Their total skill should be 1000+500/4=1125. A 3 Star boost to the 500 skill should give a new skill of 1000+750/4=1187.5, while a boost to the 1000 skill should give 1250+500/4=1375.

    The boost to the secondary stat should provide less of an impact to the percentage displayed than the primary, However the percentages displayed in game are equal no matter where you apply it.
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    PallidynePallidyne ✭✭✭✭✭
    Paladin 27 wrote: »
    The and missions treat a boost to the secondary stat the same as one to a primary stat. An example is if you have a character with 1000 primary and 500 secondary. Their total skill should be 1000+500/4=1125. A 3 Star boost to the 500 skill should give a new skill of 1000+750/4=1187.5, while a boost to the 1000 skill should give 1250+500/4=1375.

    The boost to the secondary stat should provide less of an impact to the percentage displayed than the primary, However the percentages displayed in game are equal no matter where you apply it.

    That makes some real sense of why some folks don't see a discrepancy and others do. I go out of my way to only boost the primary skill as much as possible and I think that's why I've had the success that I have.

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    [RO]BitterDevil[RO]BitterDevil ✭✭✭
    Jibblet wrote: »
    I sent a ticket regarding AND missions and they told me everything is working fine, I just don't understand statistics

    that's correct, because for them, statistics and probabilities are synonyms.
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    [SoCo] Dr. Acular[SoCo] Dr. Acular ✭✭
    edited October 2017
    .
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    [SoCo] Dr. Acular[SoCo] Dr. Acular ✭✭
    here is the % if you send 4 shuttles.

    4 times 98,00%
    4 wins 92,24%
    3 wins 7,53%
    2 win 0,23%
    1 wins 0,00%
    0 wins 0,00%

    4 times 90,00%
    4 wins 65,61%
    3 wins 29,16%
    2 win 4,86%
    1 wins 0,36%
    0 wins 0,01%

    4 times 80,00%
    4 wins 40,96%
    3 wins 40,96%
    2 win 15,36%
    1 wins 2,56%
    0 wins 0,16%

    so your chance for 4 wins in a row is 40,96% if all your shuttles have a win chance of 80%
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    [RO]BitterDevil[RO]BitterDevil ✭✭✭
    [SoCo] Pullermann wrote: »
    here is the % if you send 4 shuttles.

    4 times 98,00%
    4 wins 92,24%
    3 wins 7,53%
    2 win 0,23%
    1 wins 0,00%
    0 wins 0,00%

    4 times 90,00%
    4 wins 65,61%
    3 wins 29,16%
    2 win 4,86%
    1 wins 0,36%
    0 wins 0,01%

    4 times 80,00%
    4 wins 40,96%
    3 wins 40,96%
    2 win 15,36%
    1 wins 2,56%
    0 wins 0,16%

    so your chance for 4 wins in a row is 40,96% if all your shuttles have a win chance of 80%

    well...with 90% chance...I successfully managed to hit the 29% odds every single time...and the 0.36% at least 4 times...damn, i'm lucky!
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    RNGeverythingRNGeverything ✭✭✭
    Just sent one at 90% on a 5* time boost. Expectation were pretty high of a successful shuttle because it was chock full of nothing but event crew. Not bonus crew. EVENT CREW! STILL FAILED! So hate this game at times.
    239 Immortalized
    Gametag: ECH
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    sorinevsorinev ✭✭✭
    edited October 2017
    I had the same exact shuttle setup for 3 of the event's 4 days. Each shuttle always had the same crew with the same boost on the same mission. They went out with 93%, 89%, 75%, 70% each time. Before the event started the shuttles were a bit different. The last two runs before it ends have been different because I ran out of diplomacy boosts. But for that period of a dozen rounds or so where it was always the same, the 70% shuttle failed every single time. EVERY SINGLE TIME. That's around a dozen in a row where that 70% shuttle failed 100% of the time.

    Remember, this is artificial RNG, the "laws" regarding real RNG such as actual, physical dice don't apply here. Code can have flawed / bugged algorithms, dice can't.

    Also, yes the display needs to show the real value. The formula used for the shuttles is known and documented and has been proven to result in significantly different figures than what is shown on shuttle screen. It needs to be fixed.
    [SSR] Sorin08
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    ericdxericdx ✭✭
    Transparency? Correct Info? Such silly silly thoughts.
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    Burnham, MichelleBurnham, Michelle ✭✭✭
    It would be great if I didn't get one failure in every three at 90% plus 'success rate'. Sigh. It certainly means I won't be getting any more failures this year. Theoretically.
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    Peachtree RexPeachtree Rex ✭✭✭✭✭
    BelleAnna wrote: »
    It would be great if I didn't get one failure in every three at 90% plus 'success rate'. Sigh. It certainly means I won't be getting any more failures this year. Theoretically.

    Past results aren't an indication of future performance.
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    SpaceWereDragonSpaceWereDragon ✭✭✭
    edited November 2017
    How I look at shuttles percent is this:

    If shuttle percent is 90%, then 9 people who does the shuttle will succeed and 1 will fail.

    If 30,000 people are doing a 90% shuttle, then at least 3,000 shuttles will fail.

    The percent doesn't apply just to you. It applies to the entire player base who are sending out shuttles. Which is why you can fail a 99% shuttle.

    If 30,000 are doing a 99% shuttle, at least 300 players will fail. Sometimes, that player is you.

    That is how I look at it. It takes away some of the pain when I fail a shuttle lol
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    Burnham, MichelleBurnham, Michelle ✭✭✭
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    The T'Kuvma shuttle has failed the last three missions, now the rot has spread.

    If I didn't need to farm Bajoran items anyway if just quit right now. For the entire weekend.
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    Burnham, MichelleBurnham, Michelle ✭✭✭
    I can't just keep doing the same thing over and over and over again. What am I doing wrong and what can I do differently to get better success rates?
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