Begold Simulator

5000 Quatloos

So, results of an experiment ... I created a Begold simulator to see how often I'd be happy with results under (a) legendaries currently in portal, (b) if those not in portal were added. Also wanted to test how much skill inflation was diluted by inclusion of equally meh crew along the way (sorry, Joseph S).

Methodology:
Created a ranked score for all 240 legendaries, from a combination of:

1. Ranking in a faction skill pair top 5 (weighted by frequency of skill pairs in daily shuttles)
2. Total Voyage value
3. Bonus for being a gauntlet monster, or niche gauntlet potential
4. Bonus for % of time the crew would have qualified as bonus crew in past events
5. Bonus for crew with a small number of ship skills that I'm interested in

Then run through a simulator which pulls 3 available, and chooses based on the following logic:

1. If in the top 50%, chooses best score
2. If in the bottom 50%, and one of my existing non-FF legendaries, chooses the best fuse, otherwise chooses the best score

The results are thus skewed a little bit towards my current crew but I think this is a small bias. My small handful of FF/FE are ignored.

Captain Beverly Picard, Kahless the Unforgettable, Locutus of Borg, The Caretaker, and Lucille Davenport were excluded from the simulated portal update.

Results are as follows for 2000 runs, shown as the % of time a choice has the noted attribute under (a) current legendaries in portal, (b) if all non-special legendaries were added in a portal update, (c) difference between the two. Crew may have multiple attributes so the %s below aren't additive. Read as "chances of the best crew in a pull being..."

POOR CREW (no special attributes below, and generally 2-skill crew so have poor voyage value as well):

0.3% / 0.5% / +0.2%

Dancing Uhura, Ambassador Troi, Senator Vreenak, Doctor Chaotica, Ambassador Soval, Lissan, Mariachi Q, Sheriff of Nottingham Q, Rogue Kai Winn, One, Captain Pike, Maid Marian, Kai Opaka, Joseph Sisko, Dr. Soong, Admiral Cartwright, Orion Vina

UNDISTINGUISHED CREW (no special attributes below, but at least potential voyage value from 3 skills):

2% / 2% / -0.7%

Judge Q, Polywater Yar, Captain Morgan Bateson, Gul Madred, North Star Tucker, Undercover Sulu, Suliban Reed, General Chang, Pah-Wraith Cult Dukat, Beowulf Kim, The One Lore, Grilka, Resistance Neelix, Nyoto Uhura, Grand Nagus Rom, Grand Nagus Zek, Ushaan Archer, Astrosciences Sulu, Phoenix Cochrane

SHUTTLE MONSTERS (top 5 in a faction skill pair that occurs frequently in missions):

22% / 27% / + 6%

Professor Sato, First Officer Burnham, Zhian'tara Odo, Falcon O'Brien, Durango Troi, Leonardo da Vinci, Pah-wraith Keiko, Rura Penthe Kirk, Chancellor Gorkon, Alternate Future Jadzia Dax, EV Suit Burnham, Amelia Earhart, Xindi Insectoid Councilor, Commander Kira Nerys, Solar Sails Sisko, Ahdar Ru'Afo, The Prophet, Warship Tuvok, Admiral Kirk, Prisoner Katrina Cornwell, Captain Lorian, Borg Queen, Captain Lorca, Bell Riots Bashir, Temporal Agent Daniels, Dr. Hugh Culber, Dancing Chekov, Protomorphosis Worf, Mobile Doctor, Timicin, Harcourt Fenton Mudd, War Correspondent Jake Sisko, Ripper, Dahar Master Kang, Surgeon Pulaski, Desert Philippa Georgiou, Umpire Odo, Joachim, Dress Uniform Scotty

SHUTTLE, NICHE (top 5 in a faction skill pair that occurs infrequently in missions):

15% / 19% / +4%

(46 crew in this category)

(ANY SHUTTLE TOP 5):

35% / 46% / +10%

VOYAGE MONSTER (>3800 points, includes my current crew/fleet bonuses of 12-13% base / 10-11% proficiency)

4% / 10% / +6%

Gary Seven, Locutus of Borg, Surak, First Officer Burnham, Kahless the Unforgettable, Mirror Jean-Luc Picard, Leonardo da Vinci, The Caretaker, Mambo Picard, Interfaced La Forge, Amelia Earhart, Xindi Insectoid Councilor, Prophet Sarah Sisko, Prisoner Katrina Cornwell, Reverend Phlox

VOYAGER (3600-3800 points, as above)

48% / 58% / +10%

(87 crew in this category)

GAUNTLET MONSTER (recipe too complicated to describe but includes past trait frequencies):

7% / 6% / -1%

Gary Seven, Locutus of Borg, Surak, Kahless the Unforgettable, The Caretaker, Defensive Phlox, Gangster Spock, Chancellor Gowron, Mademoiselle de Neuf, Seven of Nine ... interestingly MJLP doesn't make my cut and shows up as highest in niche, so my formula may need a little tuning

GAUNTLET, NICHE (some gauntlet value under special skill/trait combinations)

23% / 20% / -3%

(37 crew in this category)

VERY OFTEN EVENT FEATURED (would qualify for >10.5% of past events, i.e. featured > every 9 weeks, on average. A.k.a. "attack of the hybrids")

27% / 26% / -1%

Mirror Intendent Kira (18.3%), Mirror Spock (17.6%), Mirror Regent Worf (16.9%), Romulan Data, Mirror Data, Frank Hollander, Klingon Janeway, Captain Killy (15%), Mirror T'Pol, Klingon Bride Jadzia, Warship Tuvok, Mirror Kirk, Honey Bare Jadzia, Captain Spock, Kolinhar Spock, Laborer Spock, Mirror Jean-Luc Picard, Romulan Picard, Niners Worf, Gangster Spock, Protomorphosis Worf, Tyler Son of None, The Prophet, Data V, H.M.S. Pinafore Data, Age of Sail Data, Emotion Chip Data, Tempted Data, Detective Data, Assimilated Janeway, Agent Janeway, Assimilated Torres, Mirror Bashir, Trader Worf, Will Scarlett, Captain Lorca, Changeling Martok, Musketeer Picard, Musketeer La Forge, Mirror Inquisitor Troi

OFTEN EVENT FEATURED (would qualify for 6.0-10.1% of past events, or > once every 16 weeks)

41% / 35% / -7%

(75 crew in this category)

NOTABLE SHIP (as above):

16% / 13% / -3%

---

Then some other calculations:

TOP 25% SCORED:

43% / 47% / +4%

TOP 50%-25% SCORED:

33% / 34% / +1%

TOP 75%-50% SCORED:

22% / 16% / -6%

BOTTOM 25% SCORED:

3% / 3% / +0%

Some observations:

• Thanks to the power of "best of 3", unless you're swimming in FF golds, a surprising number of pulls yield a card of *some* potential value. More than I would have thought. The chances of having to settle for bad or undistinguished crew are pretty low. There will be some "meh" ones mixed in but mathematically they should still have play value, even if uninspiring (the question will be the premium you place on crew slots).
• If the portal were fully updated today, the chances of pulling good shuttle or voyage crew in a Begold would go up by 6-10%, depending on how you calculate. Slicing across other attributes, a portal refresh would roughly yield about 10% overall better results than the current portal.
• Skill creep outweighs dilution by new poor crew ... the gain in top crew comes from depletion of the 50-75% "meh" crew.
• For my roster, if the portal were updated, the chances of pulling in the top 50% are 81%, which is very nice for a random behold (50% chance of pulling in the top 25% ain't bad either). However, it would need to be >=90% for the 45,000 Honor / 10% "discount" over a 50K citation to make sense. I still have some strategic cites to work through before rolling the 45K dice...

*** All assumes chances of pulls are uniform, which is a big IF ***

<whew>

Thorozar

Fascinating experiment. I too am surprised by the power of selecting the best of 3.

Synthetic Commander

Unfortunately direct drops of golds instead of begolds would increase likelihood of poor drops since you can't select a better alternative. It's good to know that begolds have a good chance of something useful, especially after portal updates.

5000 Quatloos

Synthetic Commander wrote: »

Unfortunately direct drops of golds instead of begolds would increase likelihood of poor drops since you can't select a better alternative. It's good to know that begolds have a good chance of something useful, especially after portal updates.

Great point. I was kind of wondering something similar looking at today's crew offer: I suspect the same 650 dil would net better results (1.27% of the time) from a you-choose Premium Rewards begold than a "DB chooses which three" crew offer (SRs aside).