10x 650 dil pack or 1x 6500 dil pack
in Ready Room
Which one of these options makes me more likely to get the character I want, which for example let’s say is 1 legendary. Just curious so I can no this when a pack with a character I want comes around.
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6500 dil pack: 1 legendary, up to 1800 honor (depending on how many of the 9 4* crew get chucked out an airlock), no schematics
10 650 dil packs: probably no legendary, likely 7000-8000 honor (maybe more, maybe less), and several hundred schematics (which you may or may not need)
It’s a gamble either way...good luck!
*If someone can check my math here, that would be great. I didn’t sleep great last night and I may have fat-fingered something along the way.
I believe it's a 1.3% chance of a legendary PER SLOT in a 10 pack (or 1.3% chance for a single 65dil pull). So while not guaranteed by any means, I believe statistical odds are about 10% chance per 650dil 10-pack. Thus, if you buy 10 of these packs you have a good chance of getting a legend (though may also get a non-featured legendary instead). With the added benefit of more honor and ship schematics (small benefit), 10x650 dil packs are more of a gamble but potentially pay off more than 6500dil.
If you specifically want that featured legend though, 6500 dil is a safer investment to ensure you get at least one of the crew you really want.
There is a 1.27% chance of any of the legendaries in a single 650-dil Tuesday pack, or about 0.42% for a specific legendary. Across ten packs that should be about 4.12% chance (or (1-(.9958^10))*100) to get a particular one of the three. I have no clue how I bungled that this morning.
Maybe I'm just failing to understand your assertion, because I recall one of the whales on the forum doing some 30+ 10 pack pulls for Gary Seven and people posting the overwhelming low odds of that happening.
If I'm understanding your math properly (quite possibly I'm missing something), it sounds like you're saying that there's a 1% chance of any legend drop in an entire 10-pack (or 1/10 of 1% PER SLOT in a 10 pack). If that were true, droughts of 100 10-pack pulls without a legend would be AVERAGE. I don't think I've ever seen anyone claim a drought that long, 30+ is the most I've seen discussed, and personally I've never been anywhere near 30 x 10 packs without a legend.
Now that I think about it, you’re right that it’s probably not 1.27% for the entire pack but rather for each slot. So for a legendary in a regular portal 10-pack you’re looking at a 98.73% chance of getting anything else per slot, or 12% chance of getting a legendary in a given pack. While RNG is a fickle mistress and many have indeed gone 30-40 packs without a legendary crew, the mean number of packs between expected 5* drops is closer to 10 rather than 100.
The rest of this reply started off pretty long-winded but then I decided to just fire up a spreadsheet instead, where I realized there is one huge problem with trying to calculate the probability of getting *any particular crew* from a given pack: we don’t really know the drop rates for 4* vs. 5* crew in the guaranteed slot for 650-dil packs from any source. We know for sure that the 6500-dil pack guarantees one featured legendary and has a 90% chance of any portal-plus-themed 4* crew and 10% chance for any portal-plus-themed 5* for the other nine slots. I think we know that the event packs work similarly, in that the event 4*s collectively drop 90% of the time and the event 5* drops 10% of the time in that guaranteed slot. I don’t think we have a good idea of how the probability of schematics and 3* crew is allocated to guaranteed 4*/5* crew from other 10-packs.
For my spreadsheet, I made kind of a large assumption: that the drop rate for 4* crew in that guaranteed slot is the sum of the drop rates for 3* crew, 4* crew, and all schematics - with the drop rate for legendaries remaining the same. It seems to make sense but does throw an element of doubt into the calculations. In any case, with this assumption the drop rate for getting a particular themed legendary from a set of ten Tuesday 650-dil packs (or a special like today’s Mirror Sulu, Warship EMA, and HMS Pinafore Data pack) is still under 5% while it is around 37% for the 6500 dil pack.
Nope.
It’s a trade-off: you give up a couple thousand honor and any chance at schematics to massively boost the chance of getting a featured legendary.
Sometimes it can be brutal and you'll end up with 30 purples in a row.
Sometimes it can be nice and you end up with 3 golds in 5 draws.
Ultimately, it depends on how you feel about burning your money.