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Legendary More Likely than Useful Super Rare (Or Why the Portal Needs a Change)
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[GoT] LuckyNumberHat
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in The Bridge
I've run some rough numbers and come to the conclusion I am more likely to get a Legendary card than I am to get a useful Super Rare from a standard Premium Rewards 10x pack.
For a little background, historically I have tried to go after pack-only SRs in the past, typically only one copy for collecting purposes. I have acquired all copies of SRs available in events for quite some time. At this time, there are only 6 SRs I need in the portal:
Tarquin (currently 3*)
Admiral Ross (currently 3*)
Vice Admiral Dougboy (currently 3*)
C.O.P. Founder Archer (currently 2*)
Captain Janeway (copies needed for Evolved Janeway)
Mutated Paris (same)
There are currently ~300 SRs in the game. Let's assume 270 of those are in the portal. With only 6 SRs useful to me, that means each SR drop has a ~97% probability of not being useful to me. A SR behold has a ~93.5% probability of being all fused, ~6.5% probability of at least one useful option.
Similarly, there are ~350 Legendaries, so let's assume there are ~300 in the portal. I have 21 FF (a few of which themselves are not yet in the portal). Each Legendary drop has a ~7% probability of not being useful to me. A Legendary behold has a ~0.03% probability of being all fused, 99.97% probability of at least one useful option.
Conservatively assuming EVERY guaranteed drop I get from a 10x is a SR or Legendary behold, based on a 90% probability of getting a SR behold and a 10% probability of a Legendary behold, I'm looking at:
90% x 6.5% = 5.9% chance of useful SR
10% x 99.97% = 9.997% ~= 10% chance of useful Legendary
I'm nearly TWICE as likely to get a Legendary I can use than a SR I can use. It gets even worse for the other 9 pulls in the 10x pack. Using the given probabilities:
5.06% x 6.5% = 0.33% chance of useful SR
1.27% x 99.97% = 1.27% chance of useful Legendary.
Nearly FOUR times as likely to get a Legendary I can use than a SR I can use.
Assuming most players clear thresholds each week, the above seems like it's not terribly far off for many others. If you don't chase any pack SRs, perhaps your useful SR count is more like 9 or 10. At 10 useful SRs in the portal, you're looking at about even odds between a useful SR and a Legendary. Around 20 useful SRs in the portal, you're still only about twice as likely (~20%) to get one.
And all of that pales in comparison to the staggering fact that for me, it still means that a whopping 84% of packs are just complete busts. No useful crew, just a handful of honor and a few schematics to throw in the replicator. This ballooning portal is really starting to show it's effect.
For a little background, historically I have tried to go after pack-only SRs in the past, typically only one copy for collecting purposes. I have acquired all copies of SRs available in events for quite some time. At this time, there are only 6 SRs I need in the portal:
Tarquin (currently 3*)
Admiral Ross (currently 3*)
Vice Admiral Dougboy (currently 3*)
C.O.P. Founder Archer (currently 2*)
Captain Janeway (copies needed for Evolved Janeway)
Mutated Paris (same)
There are currently ~300 SRs in the game. Let's assume 270 of those are in the portal. With only 6 SRs useful to me, that means each SR drop has a ~97% probability of not being useful to me. A SR behold has a ~93.5% probability of being all fused, ~6.5% probability of at least one useful option.
Similarly, there are ~350 Legendaries, so let's assume there are ~300 in the portal. I have 21 FF (a few of which themselves are not yet in the portal). Each Legendary drop has a ~7% probability of not being useful to me. A Legendary behold has a ~0.03% probability of being all fused, 99.97% probability of at least one useful option.
Conservatively assuming EVERY guaranteed drop I get from a 10x is a SR or Legendary behold, based on a 90% probability of getting a SR behold and a 10% probability of a Legendary behold, I'm looking at:
90% x 6.5% = 5.9% chance of useful SR
10% x 99.97% = 9.997% ~= 10% chance of useful Legendary
I'm nearly TWICE as likely to get a Legendary I can use than a SR I can use. It gets even worse for the other 9 pulls in the 10x pack. Using the given probabilities:
5.06% x 6.5% = 0.33% chance of useful SR
1.27% x 99.97% = 1.27% chance of useful Legendary.
Nearly FOUR times as likely to get a Legendary I can use than a SR I can use.
Assuming most players clear thresholds each week, the above seems like it's not terribly far off for many others. If you don't chase any pack SRs, perhaps your useful SR count is more like 9 or 10. At 10 useful SRs in the portal, you're looking at about even odds between a useful SR and a Legendary. Around 20 useful SRs in the portal, you're still only about twice as likely (~20%) to get one.
And all of that pales in comparison to the staggering fact that for me, it still means that a whopping 84% of packs are just complete busts. No useful crew, just a handful of honor and a few schematics to throw in the replicator. This ballooning portal is really starting to show it's effect.
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So long and thanks for all the fish.
That exists. What do you think the 6500 dil pack is? It's guaranteed to drop a legendary.
I think it would be in DB's own interest to increase the legendary drop rate. A lot of long-time players run into the problem that there isn't anything to do between events, meaning there is no goal you could work towards. Leveling new crew and finishing collections could be such a goal that keeps players motivated and engaged. It certainly would be for me.
The only reason for me to do pulls (or buy them) is potential legendaries. SR's are just fodder at this point, and not even worth spending dil during a faction event because I don't need them 4/4 to rank. I'm kind of confused that people are surprised by this, most games have an "end game" phase when you're so well equipped you're only chasing the most elite/rare characters/equipment remaining.
I don't mind chasing something that's harder to get. I mind that it is nearly impossible to get.
Not sure anyone is expressing surprise. Certainly not me (OP). Just illustrating through the numbers how boring this end game is.
This is becoming especially true for Discovery events, where the bonus crew lists are getting overly inflated.
It makes me wonder...given how many events recently have had humongous bonus crew lists, if a new Faction event were to come out with a limited crew list, or if there was a re-run of Ready to Rumble, how would people react? Relief at not having to thaw dozens of bonus crew or torches ‘n’ pitchforks for not having “enough” bonus crew?
1. Change legendary beholds to a 4 crew selection. For those who commonly come across the all 3 already FF issue,
2. And/Or if a legendary is air-locked, give a legendary citation instead of honor.
3. Change all SR Drops to beholds, again changing the behold to a 4 choice process instead of 3.
4. Increase the drop-rate of all SR and legendary crew since the pool is so diluted.
5. Increase drop-rate and add more older crew including decrepit legendaries in voyages.
Just some of the good ideas i have seen floating around the forums for quite a while now.
I have a lot of SRs at 3*s right now, just that none of them are in the portal at the moment. When the portal gets updated next, my number of "useful SRs" in the portal will jump, then burn back down as I fuse up those that I need one more star on. Right now, we are at a point where I have all the Faction SRs that the portal has to offer. In general, though, I use the campaign 4* citation on the next Faction SR after I receive it. I do not buy packs.
For the Legendary part, I think you may have misread or I was unclear. Only 21 Legendaries are not of use to me (i.e. I have them FF). I consider all other Legendaries useful. I am yet to either airlock or dupe a Legendary.
Perhaps and expansion of item 2, when a Legendary Behold is all FF, you have the option to take a 5* Citation instead of a dupe? For an all FF SR behold, maybe not a 4* Citation (since fusing event SRs is, I'm sure, a huge part of DB's income), but a large Honor bonus? 2000 bonus Honor? 5000?
Both!
Put me solidly in the list of people who would rather not thaw out 20 crew.
But the last time this happened we had plenty of people complaining, "I don't have enough bonus crew for my shuttles".
Yeah this already happened not too long ago, though it escapes me what the crew were. Megas tend to have a LOT more faction event crew, while faction/hybrids in between megas usually have significantly smaller lists of variants. Especially since you gain more during the mega.
I think it's a good idea to keep both scenarios, so that newer players with smaller crews see some improved ability to compete, while there are also some events where veterans benefit more so they feel there was some benefit for their time playing.
Another good idea. And to expand on that, how about combine and upgrade items 2&3 with your idea.
Make all SR beholds, and add a fourth option to all SR and legendary beholds, the fourth option being a cite every time. Then u can choose one of three crew as the system is now, or choose the equal value citation in the event the optional crew dropped are already FF.
Aside from the mention of event crew, a SR should be of the same value as a cite. I see your point on new event crew not released to portal yet, but even then as mentioned above the pool is so diluted the chance of getting a straight drop of the Few SR event crew you may need is not likely anyway. Once you get to that point in the game most of your SR are already complete.
Getting a legendary citation from airlocking a legendary would be catastrophic.