Do Super Rare crew stop dropping on ultra-long voyages?

Dingbat1

I've noticed that on a typical 8-10 hour voyage, every so often a super rare will drop randomly (i.e. not from a dilemma). Sometimes none, sometimes 2-4, but I'd guess maybe one per voyage on average.

However, every time I've gone past 12 hours, super rares stop dropping randomly, only from Dilemmas. Is this just horrible luck, or is there something else going on?

DavideBooks

I have anecdotally found the same thing. Someone here once suggested that they drop primarily as a result of a certain number of successes. Additional drops are by chance. That explains (partly) why most of the 4* drops outside of dilemmas happen in a certain time frame. This is good enough for me until I hear/read a better explanation.

Dingbat1

DavideBooks wrote: »

I have anecdotally found the same thing. Someone here once suggested that they drop primarily as a result of a certain number of successes. Additional drops are by chance. That explains (partly) why most of the 4* drops outside of dilemmas happen in a certain time frame. This is good enough for me until I hear/read a better explanation.

that doesn't quite make sense, because the drops would be a lot more consistent. But if it's a chance based on successful checks, then that does make sense

Cuttysark

I've noticed that as one progresses from one segment to the next certain items stop randomly dropping. I'm not an expert on 12+ hour journeys but I can see that happening. You can probably skip blaming it on "horrible luck".

AviTrek

Every 2 hours after 6 hours I average .4 SR crew dropping. But the standard deviation on the drops is .66. So there are a lot of 2 hour blocks with 0, and a rare 2 hour block with more than 1.

I've done 2 long voyages. One maintained those rates, the second under performed but was well within the expected possible outcomes. Think about how many voyages in a row you go without getting a SR to drop between 6-8. Then picture those as being 8-10, 10-12, etc... If you can go 6 voyages in a row without a random drop, then you can go to 18 hours in a single Voyage without a random drop.

Dingbat1

AviTrek wrote: »

Every 2 hours after 6 hours I average .4 SR crew dropping. But the standard deviation on the drops is .66. So there are a lot of 2 hour blocks with 0, and a rare 2 hour block with more than 1.

I've done 2 long voyages. One maintained those rates, the second under performed but was well within the expected possible outcomes. Think about how many voyages in a row you go without getting a SR to drop between 6-8. Then picture those as being 8-10, 10-12, etc... If you can go 6 voyages in a row without a random drop, then you can go to 18 hours in a single Voyage without a random drop.

makes sense. I rarely go that long, but every time I've gone for ultra-long voyages, SRs stopped dropping. Just my luck, I suppose

None

I’ve done two super long voyages to get all the 4 star voyage crew. Both went over 60 hours to get them.

The first voyage, I didn’t have a single random drop after the 15 hour mark. Not many dropped at all that voyage, but I did manage to get 3 regular ones that I was missing from the dilemmas.

The second voyage, they dropped almost to the end. I got a ton that voyage, and a lot more that I needed. I think the last one dropped after the 50 hour mark.

I read somewhere that someone had a theory that each voyage drops a resource more often than others. One voyage might have a ton of crew, another voyage might have a ton of replicator rations, while another might be full of chronitons.

It could be that some are just having bad luck with crew like my first voyage.