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How can shuttle missions be this way?

During this current event I have lost 2 95% missions, 2 97% missions, and just now a 98% mission. I think there was a 93% loss in there somewhere too...

How can it be possible to get this unlucky?
I’m not running hundreds of missions so that some unlucky breaks could happen.

This is the first faction event I have pushed to compete in in forever.

I am using boosts & extra shuttles and only running 3 person missions so that all my shuttle success rates are 92% or above - and I still have this kind of failure rate?

It’s soul crushing in a game that’s supposed to be a fun diversion.

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    The entire game is designed for wins with 5/5 golds. Even if the shuttle shows 98%, and you only have say, 2/4 purple crew on there, and the other 2 are golds, but only say 2/5 or 3/5, their combined proficiencies don't add up to nearly what a shuttle filled with 5/5 gold crew would be.

    Don't despair, it does get better as you build better crew. For example, I have 28 gold event crew for this event. About 10 of them are 5/5. (Carlos is negligible, at 1/5 he has missed a couple shuttles.) And add in a Dixon Hill (almost useless compared to the rest of the gold crew BTW)

    I have similar shuttle % as you do, and all but 1 of mine has succeeded (that was an ill-advised 8th shuttle at one point to try to jump ahead,) and I have (barely) been holding rank of around 350.

    Yes, it is VERY frustrating until you build up crew, believe me, after over 4 years of it, I wanted to throw my tablet out the window a couple of times.

    Hang in there!
    I want to become a Dilionaire...
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    Legate Damar Legate Damar ✭✭✭✭✭
    I’ve been running some three seaters with just 5/5 crew and still failing. I just think of it as some shuttles have to fail so the vp get spread out.
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    I’ve been running some three seaters with just 5/5 crew and still failing. I just think of it as some shuttles have to fail so the vp get spread out.

    That seems odd to me. Were they all event crew? The only shuttle fail I have had was with non-event crew.
    I want to become a Dilionaire...
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    These are ALL with Event crew

    I even have 2 copies of Kira & 3 of Dixon Hill
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    I have had around 6 98%+ shuttles fail this weekend, with 5/5 Carlos, and other event crew on board.

    I found it odd, but just put it down to bad RNG. Just have to shake my head and carry one, but it has definitely felt like more fails than I normally get.
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    NoNameNamerNoNameNamer ✭✭✭✭
    Just look at gauntlet and what those crit chances translate into in practice. Also keep in mind that pulling a gold out of a 10x event pack is stated to be as likely as failing a 90% shuttle (wouldn't that be awesome?). I trust WRG's RNG less than than the random number generator of an AMD CPU.
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    Warrior WilloWarrior Willo ✭✭✭✭✭
    I’ve only failed two shuttles during the event so far and I have been running more than usual (currently ranked around 100). All seems ok to me.
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    TarisTaris ✭✭✭
    My shuttles have been failing more frequently as well during this event. It just happens. I used to be furious but now I've just come to terms with it otherwise it'd drive me insane. **tsk tsk** though that it's happening during an event where I need to get to 400k but I guess I won't be adding a star to Kirk.
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    DavideBooksDavideBooks ✭✭✭✭✭
    In Galaxy events, I miss 95% bonus with some regularity. I have been above 90% every shuttle this event. Since I dropped down to 4 shuttles, I've been at least 95% each time. And yet I've failed several, including one at 97. But I've sent a ton of shuttles. At 95%, I should be failing one in 20. I've not kept a log, but that is about right for how many fail. Confirmation bias makes it seem wrong, but I believe the percentage of fails is about where it should be.
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    Princess TristaPrincess Trista ✭✭✭✭✭
    During this current event I have lost 2 95% missions, 2 97% missions, and just now a 98% mission. I think there was a 93% loss in there somewhere too...

    How can it be possible to get this unlucky?
    I’m not running hundreds of missions so that some unlucky breaks could happen.

    This is the first faction event I have pushed to compete in in forever.

    I am using boosts & extra shuttles and only running 3 person missions so that all my shuttle success rates are 92% or above - and I still have this kind of failure rate?

    It’s soul crushing in a game that’s supposed to be a fun diversion.


    Because the percents that DB/TP uses are not accurate. They use a RNG which always messes up the percentages. Almost like rolling a number then rolling again to see if you really got that first number. lol
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    SoupKitchen RikerSoupKitchen Riker ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2020
    It’s RNG. How many shuttles did you run? This past event, I ran about 225 shuttles and failed about 10 or so. I averaged around 96% for all shuttle runs. I’ve had events with really crappy RNG doing the same and only having about 90% of shuttles pass...
    “A committee is a cul-de-sac, down which good ideas are lured and quietly strangled.” —Mark TwainMEMBER: [BoB] Barrel of Bloodwine... We are recruiting and putting the “curv” in scurvy! Best Event Finish: #3 Honor Debt: Inconceivable...Honor Bank Account: Slowly building...
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    (HGH)Apollo(HGH)Apollo ✭✭✭✭✭
    I had quite a few 95% shuttles fail this event. It happens.
    Let’s fly!
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    Zombie Squirrel Zombie Squirrel ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2020
    Normal and not unusual, it is how percentages work. If u would sent 1.000 or 10.000 shuttles, it evens out. 🤗
    •SSR Delta Flyers•
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    Normal and not unusual, it is how percentages work. If u would sent 1.000 or 10.000 shuttles, it evens out. 🤗

    We can’t send out 10,000 shuttles though for each event to get it to even out. There will never be a streak where we have 1000 90% shuttles pass in a row.

    And it shouldn’t be pure math anyway. It should be “How much effort can I put in to insure success & eliminate frustration”

    Imagine studying & getting a 97% on a test and find out you still failed? That’s the more accurate dynamic. I have been saving up boosts for months (like studying for the test) decided to push in a shuttle event, and my efforts were being wasted through no fault of my own. You should be able to guarantee success in a shuttle mission at some point. The three hours spent waiting is enough of a time management effort.

    And I think 97% should be that threshold. That should be close enough to insure success. A billion out of a billion 97% missions should pass. Either that or make it so there are boosts & shuttle participant combinations that can reach 100%.
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    Bylo BandBylo Band ✭✭✭✭✭
    There is enough time (4 days) and enough resources are provided for people who put in minimal effort to clear thresholds despite the formulas/algorithms/etc that govern shuttles.

    People pushing to compete for rank are all subject to the same RNG fluctuations provided by the shuttle governing formulas/algorithms/etc.

    Having operated both of my accounts this last event I can tell you that my main failed several 98% missions, and my alt passed WAY more 55% missions than it should have. To quote the late, great Neil Peart, "The odds get even."

    The playing field is level for everyone.
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    PenguinJimPenguinJim ✭✭✭✭✭
    A billion out of a billion 97% missions should pass.
    This has to be the quote of the day. :smiley:
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    Normal and not unusual, it is how percentages work. If u would sent 1.000 or 10.000 shuttles, it evens out. 🤗

    We can’t send out 10,000 shuttles though for each event to get it to even out. There will never be a streak where we have 1000 90% shuttles pass in a row.

    And it shouldn’t be pure math anyway. It should be “How much effort can I put in to insure success & eliminate frustration”

    Imagine studying & getting a 97% on a test and find out you still failed? That’s the more accurate dynamic. I have been saving up boosts for months (like studying for the test) decided to push in a shuttle event, and my efforts were being wasted through no fault of my own. You should be able to guarantee success in a shuttle mission at some point. The three hours spent waiting is enough of a time management effort.

    And I think 97% should be that threshold. That should be close enough to insure success. A billion out of a billion 97% missions should pass. Either that or make it so there are boosts & shuttle participant combinations that can reach 100%.

    While effort does influence some aspects of the game (i.e. sending out numbers of shuttles, using varied boosts to increase odds, less sleep, etc.), that still isn’t a guarantee for anything. And, to use your analogy, depending on the curve of a grading scale or the type of assessment, a 97 could be a failing score. It’s unlikely, but possible... Oscar Wilde said it best, “It’s not enough that you succeed, others must fail.” We can’t all be at the top of the ladder. We all wish we fared better at times, and there will be other events and chances for success.

    “A committee is a cul-de-sac, down which good ideas are lured and quietly strangled.” —Mark TwainMEMBER: [BoB] Barrel of Bloodwine... We are recruiting and putting the “curv” in scurvy! Best Event Finish: #3 Honor Debt: Inconceivable...Honor Bank Account: Slowly building...
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    Normal and not unusual, it is how percentages work. If u would sent 1.000 or 10.000 shuttles, it evens out. 🤗

    People dismissively said similar things about the various shuttle bugs (like ANDGate) and the Frozen Gauntleteer bug. inquiring minds want to know many 0% shuttles should succeed if u sent 1,000 or 10,000?? 🤗

    The only thing that is "normal and not unusual" is the pRNG in this casino is of terrible quality and more often bugged than people tend to realize. A couple of galaxies back I tracked every 96% rare drop over 1000 attempts and had an actual percentage of 78%.

    But I didn't bother to report it, because TP/WRG, like DB before them, doesn't really care. And I didn't previously make a big deal of it on the forum because I don't need people who don't understand data science spouting off Pollyanna-ish nonsense.

    Part of the price of playing this game is accepting that it is poorly coded, will cheat you from time to time, and there's nothing you can do but stop playing.
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