[TOOL] Voyage Estimator

Prof Moriarty

(add up the differences of the max skills and min skills) / (add up all skills / 2) * 100 = %

so for my current voyage:

(1128-425 + 1076-293 + 880-414 + 764-307 + 1000-550 + 1041-412 + 1483-674 + 1024-532 + 963-384 + 1078-768 + 1380-1158 + 929-522) / ( (1128+425 + 1076+293 + 880+414 + 764+307 + 1000+550 + 1041+412 + 1483+674 + 1024+532 + 963+384 + 1078+768 + 1380+1158 + 929+522) / 2) * 100 = 65.75%

(NOTE: in the example by Chewable C++, he used diff/2 / sum/4 ... but that can be reduced to diff/sum/2)

(NOTE2: you only really see a difference once that number > 100% ...)

Peachtree Rex

I just spent far too long trying to figure out what a good way to weight the benefit of each skill point for Primary vs. Secondary vs. Others...Only to realize that the ratio is 3.5 Primary : 2.5 Secondary : 1.0 Other...the exact ratio that we see from the frequency of hazards.

Maybe it's time to go to bed >.>

Edit:
I suppose what I didn't articulate is I'm trying to figure out a simple way to find an optimal crew. However, trying to apply that ratio (where you weight the primary skill by 3.5 and secondary by 2.5) might not be very useful if you have a sizable crew.

Even in my weakest skill combo (MED/ENG) if I follow that ratio strictly with prioritizing my crew, I end up with:
MED: 10190 (Primary)
ENG: 3024 (Secondary)
DIP: 4940
SEC: 4350
CMD: 4120
SCI: 2017

Which, clearly, ends up over-emphasizing MED and has an estimated duration of 6:32 (wasting 2000+ skill points off the top of MED).

If i weighted MED at 2 and ENG at 1.5, I would get the following makeup:
MED: 7556 (Primary)
ENG: 4957 (Secondary)
CMD: 6888
SEC: 5265
DIP: 3829
SCI: 1972

This has a estimated time of a hair over 7 hours and is, I would guess, at least close to optimal for the crew that I have.

Fuzz manly

All. Just curious. I just setup a new voyage last night with a total of 22k across all with gold dip and silver sec. Totalling 12k themselves. Today I look at 5 hours in and the focus has changed to gold cmd and silver dip... I never noticed it changing during vo/age before. It does away with any pre voyage calculations or setup. Anyone else notice this as it definitely has bearing on calculations... I do have screenshots.
Mike

Peachtree Rex

This was a bug. Probably best to keep discussion on it in that thread:
https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/1478/psa-server-push-may-have-changed-your-voyage-skills#latest

Chewable C++

I've updated the estimator to show accurate estimates for the first two refills.

Took me a while to realize that this would be an obvious and important improvement. Hadn't run into a case where it mattered in my own voyage planning until now

Peachtree Rex

@Chewable C++ I recommend you report your post here to be moved to the Ready room and stickied.

Chewable C++

Peachtree Rex wrote: »

@Chewable C++ I recommend you report your post here to be moved to the Ready room and stickied.

Ok. I had it in Ready Room originally but thought that was the wrong place when the forums switched over =/

Captain Tambourine Man

Here's some data from four hours into a voyage: http://prntscr.com/hv0u9r. I started at 2900 AM, and no refills so far.

Captain Tambourine Man

And here's the shot from two hours later: http://prntscr.com/hv5al9 . I recaled the voyage, but hopefully the three data points help you out.

Captain Tambourine Man

Here's a new voyage. Just started: http://prntscr.com/hv91br

Chewable C++

Captain SIds wrote: »

Here's a new voyage. Just started: http://prntscr.com/hv91br

Thanks!

It'd be better if you could enter the data in the appropriate forms:

time: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdWEJWABCVZiBKWeTnFevCYeg9f9DCG_x49KdlSnGTOh3acEQ/viewform?usp=sf_link

skill checks: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScAWaefv0h1Rc2m-plYWeA6KkV_M-qDMBUbMLN1FORvm8J5gA/viewform?usp=sf_link

Almost a Angel

OMG...Divide Antimatter by 30 set your timer and go outside and plant a tree, flowers, throw a Ball to the dog.

Captain Tambourine Man

Chewable C++ wrote: »

Captain SIds wrote: »

Here's a new voyage. Just started: http://prntscr.com/hv91br

Thanks!

It'd be better if you could enter the data in the appropriate forms:

time: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdWEJWABCVZiBKWeTnFevCYeg9f9DCG_x49KdlSnGTOh3acEQ/viewform?usp=sf_link

skill checks: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScAWaefv0h1Rc2m-plYWeA6KkV_M-qDMBUbMLN1FORvm8J5gA/viewform?usp=sf_link

OK, will see about doing that. Here is the view after just over an hour... http://prntscr.com/hv9xwi

Chewable C++

ZEBONAIR wrote: »

OMG...Divide Antimatter by 30 set your timer and go outside and plant a tree, flowers, throw a Ball to the dog.

22, not 30. Yes, that will usually work pretty well near the end, but only if your skills are "balanced" otherwise you'll undershoot.

The estimator helps optimize starting crew for best outcome.

Currently it doesn't have a function to get an updated estimate. That's next on my to-do list.

[FF] LeFebvre

I have found that there are 2 strategies that work for me. My Goal is to minimize dilithium usage to reach a certain number of dilemmas (trying to get the Voyage special crew can only happen at dilemmas). For my crew, I can reach 4 dilemmas (8 hrs) using no dilithium by emphasizing primary and secondary to get longest duration. This is the standard strategy. I usually get around 8:20 estimate. If I want a longer voyage, say 6 dilemmas) I am better off optimizing for antimatter bonus and a shorter first refill. Since refill is 5 dilithium per minute duration, the longer the first refill, the higher the cost. For me, a 12 hour voyage will take 2 refills. If I strive for longest first run, I get about about 2700 AM (a little over 2 hours.. First refill would cost 100 and second around 125 for total of 225.

When I optimize around traits, I get 7:41 initial with 2900 AM (about 2:10). First refill costs about 92 and second costs 118 for a total of 210. Saves 15 dilithium.

Estimator helps me work this out.

Thanks.

Liosilath

Hi!

var ticksPerCycle = 28
 ...
  var hazPerCycle = 6
  var activityPerCycle = 18

where there are 4 more ticks?

Chewable C++

guest_928507415724034 wrote: »

Hi!

var ticksPerCycle = 28
 ...
  var hazPerCycle = 6
  var activityPerCycle = 18

where there are 4 more ticks?

Kirian wrote: »

Some data that I don't think I've seen elsewhere, that may help you.

There is a fixed cycle to Voyages.

If we call each event a tick, there's a 28-tick cycle. Every 7th tick is a reward. Every 4th tick is a hazard, except that tick 28 is a reward, not a hazard. In a cycle, you will encounter 6 hazards, 4 rewards, and 18 filler events.

Each tick is exactly 20 seconds. It does not automatically display as such because display is delayed by various things. Each cycle is therefore 9 min 20 sec.

The first two hours consist of exactly 360 ticks (2x60x3). This is 12 cycles and 24 ticks. The 24th tick of cycle 13, which would normally be a hazard, is replaced by a dilemma. This then repeats; the 4 hr dilemma replaces the 20th tick of the 26th cycle.

This explains the 21.2 AM/min number for failing everything. Rewards do not lose an AM. Each 9m20s cycle has 6 hazards (180 AM) and 18 filler (18 AM). 198 AM / 9.333 min = 21.21 AM/min. This is the average, though any given 1 minute may lose as little as 2 or as much as 32 AM.

These numbers are exact. You can verify in your own log, and I encourage you to do so. This does not account for passing or failing hazards, which almost certainly involves RNG.

Liosilath

I just checked, the filler event before the reward takes away antimatter.
At me always through 1 cycle (9m20s) of an antimatter more on 8, than in the beginning (6 hazards * 5 a/m - 22 filler events * 1 a/m = 8)

DavideBooks

I believe your math, but that seems to mean that 2 hours require 2544 AM. I thought it worked with less than that. I guess I had some hazards pass without realizing it.

Data1001

DavideBooks wrote: »

I believe your math, but that seems to mean that 2 hours require 2544 AM. I thought it worked with less than that. I guess I had some hazards pass without realizing it.

You don't need that much AM to pass the first 2 hours. I have been doing it with less on my alternate account.

DavideBooks

The first two aren't an issue. The second two can be.

Commander Sinclair

Has anyone given consideration to the refresh cost being associated with the amount of AM? I have always seen the refresh/reload Dil cost different on nearly every Voyage. Today I noticed the first one was the same as my last one: 80 for the first, 103 for the second. I have not been keeping track, but I am guessing my combined Skill and/or AM was the same in both cases.

OR

Could it have to do with how much time has elapsed? Both similar, but which does the system measure to get the amount of Dils needed? This would be especially helpful in charting from the onset of a Voyage as to how much Dils you need to go a certain amount of time.

To support this, I found another person's recent post about how much they spent:

I just did a 20 Hour Voyage with base stats '11232, 10774, 5371, 4344, 2353, 2246' and it costed me 821 Dil for 5 revives:
1. 9:12 - 111
2. 11:32 - 139
3. 13:40 - 165
4. 15:48 - 190
5. 15:57 - 216

Bobkyou

Commander Sinclair wrote: »

Has anyone given consideration to the refresh cost being associated with the amount of AM?

It's length of time the voyage has been going on in minutes divided by 5.

1. 9:12 - 111
552 minutes divided by 5 = 110.4 dilithium
2. 11:32 - 139
692 minutes divided by 5 = 138.4 dilithium
ect.

Generally speaking the game always rounds up for this calculation, though I have seen one or two odd results which I attributed to sync issues.

Chewable C++

I've also had refresh cost in my estimator since the first version

Bobkyou

Would it be possible to have the estimator show the estimated anti matter expected to be remaining at 2 hours, 4 hours, and 6 hours? Assuming of course it wouldn't be a huge headache to try to do of course.

I've had one or two voyages where I should have hit 8 hours comfortably, but ended up having unusually low hits for my primary or secondary which caused the voyage to fail (including one where a tertiary skill came up more than the secondary). If people could see what their expected antimatter is at the different dilemma milestones, it'd be an easy way for players to compare how normalized their skill checks are being for that voyage so far.

Chewable C++

Bobkyou wrote: »

Would it be possible to have the estimator show the estimated anti matter expected to be remaining at 2 hours, 4 hours, and 6 hours? Assuming of course it wouldn't be a huge headache to try to do of course.

I've had one or two voyages where I should have hit 8 hours comfortably, but ended up having unusually low hits for my primary or secondary which caused the voyage to fail (including one where a tertiary skill came up more than the secondary). If people could see what their expected antimatter is at the different dilemma milestones, it'd be an easy way for players to compare how normalized their skill checks are being for that voyage so far.

Good idea.

Actually, I plan to allow you to specify elapsed time and then you could just state what your current AM is to get an updated estimate. I haven't found much spare time yet (actually playing STT has eaten up a ton of my free time, heh).

Bobkyou

That's great to hear, I look forward to seeing it.

And thank you for all the hard work you've put into the the estimator so far.

Chewable C++

Bobkyou wrote: »

That's great to hear, I look forward to seeing it.

And thank you for all the hard work you've put into the the estimator so far.

Glad it's appreciated!

I just added the ability to specify elapsed time.

Commander Sinclair

This seems to support my hypothesis.

Bobkyou wrote: »

Would it be possible to have the estimator show the estimated anti matter expected to be remaining at 2 hours, 4 hours, and 6 hours? Assuming of course it wouldn't be a huge headache to try to do of course.

I've had one or two voyages where I should have hit 8 hours comfortably, but ended up having unusually low hits for my primary or secondary which caused the voyage to fail (including one where a tertiary skill came up more than the secondary). If people could see what their expected antimatter is at the different dilemma milestones, it'd be an easy way for players to compare how normalized their skill checks are being for that voyage so far.

That is, in fact, what I was asking. Sorry I wasn't more concise.

[RR] Redbeard

For the 20 hour achievement - does starting AM matter more than skills since you'll be failing most of the challenges for most of the voyage?