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Begold Odds
AviTrek
✭✭✭✭✭
in The Bridge
Seeing people complain about all their bad begolds, I decided to run some numbers to show how bad the odds are.
First, the makeup of the 5* crew in the portal by BB Tier:
2: 2.3%
3: 4%
4: 5.2%
5: 8.2%
6: 17.4%
7: 17.2%
8: 17.8%
9: 18.8%
10: 9.2%
Note that currently there are no tier 1 crew in the portal.
Now what does that mean for begold odds. The odds of getting at least 1 crew of this tier or better:
2: 6.7%
3: 17.7%
4: 30.7%
5: 48.2%
6: 75%
7: 90.4%
8: 97.8%
9: 99.9%
10: 100%
In any single random begold, you are more likely to only see tier 6 or worse. And slightly less than 50% chance of seeing a tier 5. Anything better than that is even less likely. And if you consider that you likely have more tier 1-4 crew FF than lower tiers, the odds of getting a begold with a good tier crew you need are even worse.
First, the makeup of the 5* crew in the portal by BB Tier:
2: 2.3%
3: 4%
4: 5.2%
5: 8.2%
6: 17.4%
7: 17.2%
8: 17.8%
9: 18.8%
10: 9.2%
Note that currently there are no tier 1 crew in the portal.
Now what does that mean for begold odds. The odds of getting at least 1 crew of this tier or better:
2: 6.7%
3: 17.7%
4: 30.7%
5: 48.2%
6: 75%
7: 90.4%
8: 97.8%
9: 99.9%
10: 100%
In any single random begold, you are more likely to only see tier 6 or worse. And slightly less than 50% chance of seeing a tier 5. Anything better than that is even less likely. And if you consider that you likely have more tier 1-4 crew FF than lower tiers, the odds of getting a begold with a good tier crew you need are even worse.
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Comments
A few notes:
- I recall WRG (Ben) stating that they don't weigh beholds on any stat-related criteria. **citation needed
- Tiers are not distributed equally. I believe atm the distribution of the top five legendary tiers are 5/20/30/40/50 with the remaining 408 (74%) legendary crew distributed (unevenly) between the bottom five tiers. It's done that way because delineation between "daily use"-type crew is more important than the hordes of event and collection-only older crew who (mostly) would not contribute to voyages or daily shuttles.
I think the point is valid that in most cases begolds are just ticking a box on collection or event help. I'm sure part of it is wearing rose-colored glasses, but I don't think the average behold is nearly as exciting as it used to be years ago. I hate seeing new players pop in on Discord and say, "I guess my behold **tsk tsk**?"
Behold re-rolls or more preferably something to do with all our finished and unused crew would be really welcome.
Reunion Spock and Kirk aren’t technically in the portal but I imagine some people would be happy to treat FTPSpock as a Tier 1 crew.
I have one copy. Not sure if I would wait around to collect 10 copies of Spock and 24 copies of Anxious Kirk just to get all of 3 of them FFed.
For sure. And a Braxton tier 2 is basically as good if you don't have him. For that matter, I'd be happy to get the fifth star on a tier 8 if it also completed a collection level. But there are too many personal variables to determine who is a good card for that person. That's why I went with tiers. It's generic and gives everyone a rough idea regardless of any personal differences.