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Gauntlet Conspiracy Theory

After reading about the layoffs earlier in the day, I got this and thought that WRG was going to make it impossible to win a gauntlet ever again. Bring on the conspiracy theories with your transparent aluminum foil hats.
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Comments

  • AviTrekAviTrek ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm betting someone is following the Elon management theory. Fire the staff, then pull plugs on things and see what breaks.
  • DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    The last round I just did to finish the last few wins for the OE was a pain. I keep getting everyone of my team being No Matching Skills.....

    On the other hand, I did get Archer the other night in one of the Chests after a Gauntlet.

    came4mmd4tp7.png
    "The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
  • So did I, twice. Got a screenshot for posterity 😊
  • Bylo BandBylo Band ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think the new Archer is the conspiracy. I've lost track of how many Gauntlets I've won since he was allegedly introduced but it is at least 12, and this keeps happening.

    rr5lp772pl0k.jpg
    5v8negj9g4e6.jpg
    bfl4bdx5hp5p.jpg
    rmsxm684wcia.jpg
    9bslcben80yw.jpg
    8gj6srz0uvhr.jpg
    ehjglq1gv4nd.jpg
    y2bffcvd3urt.jpg

    I've had long streaks, I win well over 90% of the Gauntlets I'm in, is there a secret handshake I need to learn?
  • Bylo Band wrote: »
    I think the new Archer is the conspiracy. I've lost track of how many Gauntlets I've won since he was allegedly introduced but it is at least 12, and this keeps happening.

    rr5lp772pl0k.jpg
    5v8negj9g4e6.jpg
    bfl4bdx5hp5p.jpg
    rmsxm684wcia.jpg
    9bslcben80yw.jpg
    8gj6srz0uvhr.jpg
    ehjglq1gv4nd.jpg
    y2bffcvd3urt.jpg

    I've had long streaks, I win well over 90% of the Gauntlets I'm in, is there a secret handshake I need to learn?

    Its just not worth the effort to rank high.

    My alts barely play any gauntlet and already have seen 2 Archer
    (1 out of not even ranking, only joined gauntlet and didn t play a single round).

    My main plays hardcore always ranks high and nothing.
    There is no sense in it all. Pure luck.
    •SSR Delta Flyers•
  • i play gauntlet to get merits to do merit pulls to get more honor.

    this is the way.
    pro deo et denny crane
  • Jurati_whoaJurati_whoa ✭✭✭
    edited February 2023
    You just need to cycle through a 15 streak win, then break the streak and cycle back up.

    There seems to be some sort of nested “win” value that seems to reset each time you reset Your streak.

    Following this strategy i get 1-2 gauntlet golds per contest.
  • AndrewAndrew ✭✭✭
    Bylo Band wrote: »
    I think the new Archer is the conspiracy. I've lost track of how many Gauntlets I've won since he was allegedly introduced but it is at least 12, and this keeps happening.

    rr5lp772pl0k.jpg
    5v8negj9g4e6.jpg
    bfl4bdx5hp5p.jpg
    rmsxm684wcia.jpg
    9bslcben80yw.jpg
    8gj6srz0uvhr.jpg
    ehjglq1gv4nd.jpg
    y2bffcvd3urt.jpg

    I've had long streaks, I win well over 90% of the Gauntlets I'm in, is there a secret handshake I need to learn?

    Its just not worth the effort to rank high.

    My alts barely play any gauntlet and already have seen 2 Archer
    (1 out of not even ranking, only joined gauntlet and didn t play a single round).

    My main plays hardcore always ranks high and nothing.
    There is no sense in it all. Pure luck.

    It would seem to be pure luck. Or pure bad luck. Doesn't matter how high I've placed, six months of gauntlets and I've never seen a single crew from it.
  • Bylo Band wrote: »
    I think the new Archer is the conspiracy. I've lost track of how many Gauntlets I've won since he was allegedly introduced but it is at least 12, and this keeps happening.

    rr5lp772pl0k.jpg
    5v8negj9g4e6.jpg
    bfl4bdx5hp5p.jpg
    rmsxm684wcia.jpg
    9bslcben80yw.jpg
    8gj6srz0uvhr.jpg
    ehjglq1gv4nd.jpg
    y2bffcvd3urt.jpg

    I've had long streaks, I win well over 90% of the Gauntlets I'm in, is there a secret handshake I need to learn?

    Its just not worth the effort to rank high.

    My alts barely play any gauntlet and already have seen 2 Archer
    (1 out of not even ranking, only joined gauntlet and didn t play a single round).

    My main plays hardcore always ranks high and nothing.
    There is no sense in it all. Pure luck.

    My main and my alts have been Archer-free since he was introduced, yet there are those in my fleets with one account with multiples already. RNG gone haywire. lol
    Admiral of the Inner Planets Alliance fleets
  • DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't think I have ever gotten any of them from finishing high. Mostly from a divisible by three win box or finishing in the middle.
    "The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
  • Sven LundgrenSven Lundgren ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't think I have ever gotten any of them from finishing high. Mostly from a divisible by three win box or finishing in the middle.

    Me too. Never got a gauntlet crew from the rewards.
  • I have gotten about 1/2 of mine from finishing top 3 then the rest from random 3-win boxes or finishes between 11-150.
    Admiral of the Inner Planets Alliance fleets
  • IIRC, gauntlet crew are supposed to have the same drop chance no matter what the box's quality.
  • AviTrekAviTrek ✭✭✭✭✭
    IIRC, gauntlet crew are supposed to have the same drop chance no matter what the box's quality.

    Not correct. Gauntlet crew have a higher chance the better the box quality. That was confirmed by Shan when they changed the rewards and added the old gauntlet crew.
  • DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    AviTrek wrote: »
    IIRC, gauntlet crew are supposed to have the same drop chance no matter what the box's quality.

    Not correct. Gauntlet crew have a higher chance the better the box quality. That was confirmed by Shan when they changed the rewards and added the old gauntlet crew.

    Part of the reason it seems like lower boxes have an equal chance is that at some levels you get more of the lower boxes than you would if you finished a little higher and got less of the next better boxes. So, people have more chances for a "hit" opening more boxes and when they do "hit" confirmation bias kicks in.
    "The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
  • WebberoniWebberoni ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2023
    AviTrek wrote: »
    IIRC, gauntlet crew are supposed to have the same drop chance no matter what the box's quality.

    Not correct. Gauntlet crew have a higher chance the better the box quality. That was confirmed by Shan when they changed the rewards and added the old gauntlet crew.

    That's what I thought too, but fairly recently here on the forms Shan had said that the odds of getting gauntlet crew is the same in every loot box, with only the odds of getting better equipment improving with the better boxes.

    That stood out to me since it was the complete opposite of what I thought for the past six years. It also changed how I play gauntlet; now I go for maximum boxes in terms of end standings, rather than pushing for a top-10 finish and getting less loot boxes, even if that means getting worse equipment as my secondary prize.
  • AviTrekAviTrek ✭✭✭✭✭
    Webberoni wrote: »
    AviTrek wrote: »
    IIRC, gauntlet crew are supposed to have the same drop chance no matter what the box's quality.

    Not correct. Gauntlet crew have a higher chance the better the box quality. That was confirmed by Shan when they changed the rewards and added the old gauntlet crew.

    That's what I thought too, but fairly recently here on the forms Shan had said that the odds of getting gauntlet crew is the same in every loot box, with only the odds of getting better equipment improving with the better boxes.

    That stood out to me since it was the complete opposite of what I thought for the past six years. It also changed how I play gauntlet; now I go for maximum boxes in terms of end standings, rather than pushing for a top-10 finish and getting less loot boxes, even if that means getting worse equipment as my secondary prize.

    Any chance you can find that comment? I'll see if I can find the one I'm referring to. But we may need @WRG Ben or @STT Community to confirm this if there are conflicting comments.
  • AviTrekAviTrek ✭✭✭✭✭
    I found the one I was thinking of.

    https://forum.wickedrealmgames.com/stt/discussion/13002/v7-0-10-release-notes-and-gauntlet-changes
    - Gauntlet Update

    • We're adding a secondary chance table to the loot boxes where Captains can earn previous Gauntlet exclusive crew such as Locutus and Bartender Guinan! Both chance tables will have the same probability, so this change ultimately doubles the likelihood of receiving one of the Gauntlet exclusives from loot boxes.
    • The odds of receiving Gauntlet exclusive crew from Loot Boxes is being significantly increased.
    • The best chances to receive Gauntlet crew can be found in the Gauntlet loot boxes that come from ranking amongst the top Gauntlet players.
  • EnderWEnderW ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think what Shan was talking about was streaks:
    Shan wrote: »
    Nothing has changed in how the gauntlet works.

    We often see tickets where players believe that having a long streak increases the chance of getting a gauntlet exclusive crew, and that is what I was hoping to address.
    Playing Since: 2018-02-26 Level: 99 Fleet: ÷ Battleship Yamato, Squad Leader & Fleet Officer; 17hr, 20min Voyage /wo Refuel; 1575 Immortalized Crew; Highest Event Rank: 8 (God of Thunder)
  • AviTrekAviTrek ✭✭✭✭✭
    That makes sense. I feel like there are always a ton of cases of miscommunication where Shan tried to explain A, players took any slight vagueness to assume she meant B, asked poorly worded questions about B that resulted in Shan answering X instead.

    My current understanding: The better the quality gauntlet box, the better the odds of getting the featured crew. A streak of 30 will not be a better chance at the crew than a streak of 15. It is still the same Gauntlet Crate every 3 wins. However, continuing your streak so that you continue to win Gauntlet Crates will be better than losing your streak and starting over with Gauntlet Box and Chest before getting back to Crates.

    I also assume(and hope) that 3 Gauntlet Vaults for finishing 6-10, is better odds at the crew than 7 Gauntlet Crates for finishing at 11. But I have never seen WRG confirm that or any player track enough boxes to confirm the odds from each.
  • DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    AviTrek wrote: »
    That makes sense. I feel like there are always a ton of cases of miscommunication where Shan tried to explain A, players took any slight vagueness to assume she meant B, asked poorly worded questions about B that resulted in Shan answering X instead.

    My current understanding: The better the quality gauntlet box, the better the odds of getting the featured crew. A streak of 30 will not be a better chance at the crew than a streak of 15. It is still the same Gauntlet Crate every 3 wins. However, continuing your streak so that you continue to win Gauntlet Crates will be better than losing your streak and starting over with Gauntlet Box and Chest before getting back to Crates.

    I also assume(and hope) that 3 Gauntlet Vaults for finishing 6-10, is better odds at the crew than 7 Gauntlet Crates for finishing at 11. But I have never seen WRG confirm that or any player track enough boxes to confirm the odds from each.

    The difference that people rely on by trying to finish where they get the seven boxes versus three boxes. Because one gives you three chances and the other gives you seven chances. They are aiming for quantity over quality.
    "The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
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