Am I Looking at This Wrong?

Banjo1012

I thought For sure I had much better numbers however my voyage did not hit 8 hours whereas the one I thought the numbers were not as good hit 8 hours 18 minutes. It’s a well over 20 minute difference. Seems a stretch even for bad luck RNG. Any advice on how to best staff a voyage?

Banjo1012

And I didn’t notice this before but where did my 1 dilithium go? I know I did not spend a single dilithium on anything.

Data1001

Enterprise Was Best wrote: »

And I didn’t notice this before but where did my 1 dilithium go? I know I did not spend a single dilithium on anything.

Wow, that's freaky. Reminds me of the cyber criminals who only steal pennies at a time but do it to so many accounts they make a ton of $$. Time to put on your tinfoil hats, everyone!

Banjo1012

Data1001 wrote: »

Enterprise Was Best wrote: »

And I didn’t notice this before but where did my 1 dilithium go? I know I did not spend a single dilithium on anything.

Wow, that's freaky. Reminds me of the cyber criminals who only steal pennies at a time but do it to so many accounts they make a ton of $$. Time to put on your tinfoil hats, everyone!

Right? Also leave it to me to steer my own thread in a totally different direction than where it started, before it even started

DavideBooks

The dilithium refills do not go by even numbers, thus the apparent missing 1 dil

Banjo1012

DavideBooks wrote: »

The dilithium refills do not go by even numbers, thus the apparent missing 1 dil

I get that but I would not spend 1 dilithium on a one second recall, or a refresh, or anything else.

Data1001

Enterprise Was Best wrote: »

DavideBooks wrote: »

The dilithium refills do not go by even numbers, thus the apparent missing 1 dil

I get that but I would not spend 1 dilithium on a one second recall, or a refresh, or anything else.

Actually, though, he's probably right in that you may have done something between those two screenshots which accrued you exactly one less dilithium than what you spent on an Antimatter refill. For example: you may have bought a 1250 chroniton offer (which comes with 500 VIP points), getting you an additional 250 bonus dilithium, and then had a refill (or a combination of refills) in a Voyage which totaled 251 dilithium. Despite the fun of putting on a tinfoil hat, Occam's Razor seems to apply here, in that the simplest explanation is the most likely.

Banjo1012

Data1001 wrote: »

Enterprise Was Best wrote: »

DavideBooks wrote: »

The dilithium refills do not go by even numbers, thus the apparent missing 1 dil

I get that but I would not spend 1 dilithium on a one second recall, or a refresh, or anything else.

Actually, though, he's probably right in that you may have done something between those two screenshots which accrued you exactly one less dilithium than what you spent on an Antimatter refill. For example: you may have bought a 1250 chroniton offer (which comes with 500 VIP points), getting you an additional 250 bonus dilithium, and then had a refill (or a combination of refills) in a Voyage which totaled 251 dilithium. Despite the fun of putting on a tinfoil hat, Occam's Razor seems to apply here, in that the simplest explanation is the most likely.

Ah now I get it. Very coincidental but that must be what happened. Still confused about the voyage though. I was thinking I would get 8.5 hours out of the top one

Data1001

I've hit the 8 hour mark (sans refills) only three times myself (the latest one just today), and for me it's been luck in the opposite direction which has gotten me there. My skill stats on the Voyages that made it past that 4th dilemma weren't particularly stronger than any of my other Voyages from the past month. I think RNG just swings wildly sometimes, in both directions.

Banjo1012

Data1001 wrote: »

I've hit the 8 hour mark (sans refills) only three times myself (the latest one just today), and for me it's been luck in the opposite direction which has gotten me there. My skill stats on the Voyages that made it past that 4th dilemma weren't particularly stronger than any of my other Voyages from the past month. I think RNG just swings wildly sometimes, in both directions.

It does in other aspects of the game. I guess I shouldn’t think Voyages are any different

Peachtree Rex

The difference in the two voyages has to do with variance in which hazards you see and, more importantly, when you see them.

I don't know what your starting AM levels are, so I'm going to assume 2650. I would estimate the crew on your first voyage to go an average of 8:29 and the second 8:05.

As with all averages, it's helpful to know what sort of standard deviation we're dealing with. To my knowledge, no one has developed a tool yet that simulates a bunch of runs with a given crew to estimate that. However, I know I've see voyages go +/- 30 minutes (and probably more) from my estimates.

While that might mean my estimates are wrong, the fact that I see deviations both ways means there's a decent chance it's due to variation in hazards. If you have a run of bad luck in the 4:00+ range and get your stats other than primary/secondary, then your AM levels will drop a lot faster than "normal".

My estimator, for reference: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Bm0emOz-eNHU-_YCH741vG4DxRltoyS4tWvA6cee3V8/edit

Banjo1012

Peachtree Rex wrote: »

The difference in the two voyages has to do with variance in which hazards you see and, more importantly, when you see them.

I don't know what your starting AM levels are, so I'm going to assume 2650. I would estimate the crew on your first voyage to go an average of 8:29 and the second 8:05.

As with all averages, it's helpful to know what sort of standard deviation we're dealing with. To my knowledge, no one has developed a tool yet that simulates a bunch of runs with a given crew to estimate that. However, I know I've see voyages go +/- 30 minutes (and probably more) from my estimates.

While that might mean my estimates are wrong, the fact that I see deviations both ways means there's a decent chance it's due to variation in hazards. If you have a run of bad luck in the 4:00+ range and get your stats other than primary/secondary, then your AM levels will drop a lot faster than "normal".

My estimator, for reference: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Bm0emOz-eNHU-_YCH741vG4DxRltoyS4tWvA6cee3V8/edit

Good point. The skills do drop at a consistent overall but WHEN they drop is the key

Odo Marmarosa

Enterprise Was Best wrote: »

Data1001 wrote: »

I've hit the 8 hour mark (sans refills) only three times myself (the latest one just today), and for me it's been luck in the opposite direction which has gotten me there. My skill stats on the Voyages that made it past that 4th dilemma weren't particularly stronger than any of my other Voyages from the past month. I think RNG just swings wildly sometimes, in both directions.

It does in other aspects of the game. I guess I shouldn’t think Voyages are any different

I once got the same hazard back-to-back, failing it the first time and passing the second. Hit the same hazard again a couple minutes later and failed. RNG is a huge factor; I don't monitor the voyage log as much anymore but in between the constantly malfunctioning replicators and crew members begging to name "constellations" there are all sorts of random things going on with hazards.