Not all RNGs are the same or odds are just wrong
in The Bridge
Random is random right? But still I have to wonder what craziness is going on roll wise. I fail 99% missions pretty regularly, but am yet to ever get a prize from the top row of the dabo wheel which is supposedly a 1.28% chance. I don't spend much dil there ever, at most I have done 50 dil. but even with the extra spins, probably roughly 600 or so total I have not once seen a top row reward yet have failed 3 of 4 99% missions more than once. Am I alone here, just have a cursed crew?
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Comments
Wrong. Digital != Analog
Most RNG algorithms are psuedo-random number generators. And of those, most are poorly programmed and have limited seed values.
Some people may draw a comparison between pRNG used by gaming companies and that used by casinos. Casino RNG is regulated and independently tested, which may not mean all that much, but at least there's some kind of accountability.
If you're really curious, I'd recommend spending some time googling "random number generator" and learning about the programming/implementation challenges involved. Wikipedia and Random.org are good starting points from such a search.
With a little bit of knowledge and experience, it quickly becomes obvious that DB's implementation of RNG is exceptionally poor and almost certainly manipulated. So really, it's not even pRNG, it's DBNG.
And yes, DBNG hates your crew. Welcome to the club.
I totally get what you’re saying and you have a great point. The RNG only swings wildly in the negative way. If you really have failed 3 out of 4 99% shuttles at one point you should have hit the top row a few times
Most likely the shuttle numbers are just plain wrong, or for some reason they are rolling like 1 - 101 or something.
That is, 5000 credits x 180 = 900,000 credits. Not much in the grand scheme of things.
Just a very slow way of potentially getting a random fun thing. Expect a bit of excitement once every 3 to 6 months.
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13 months, at least 1 roll per day, and I have yet to hit the top tier on Dabo. I suppose I am due for more than a “bit”. Perhaps a byte? 🔜
Same here, working in 13th month , at least 1, often 2rolls per day. Never hit an upper row in dabo. That being said, 5 of the 7 days a week I seem to always get ship schems on 2nd row, which is a great deal more than ever landing on 1rst row.
Yep, I just max-leveled the USS Defiant yesterday via Dabo 2nd row, which made me happy. Of course, the 3rd row had 2 of my wishlist cards, but c’est la vie. 🖖🏻
Yes, it does seem a bit rubbish. I should say I got a super-rare piece of equipment, not a crew card so I don't really know what the drop rates are supposed to be for Dabo at all.
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From the Wiki, last edit 30-01-2018:
Top row: 1.28%
Midde: 35.12%
Bottom: 63.6%
Link: https://stt.wiki/wiki/Time_Portal#Dabo_Wheel
If I recall correctly, Dabo wheel odds were changed somewhere around July-August 2016. Haven't hit top row since. So that's in the neighborhood of 550 spins now.
Maybe I used up all my luck in the pre-nerf era? Got a purple and a top row equipment in the ~4 months before DB made changes. #JusticeForDabo
And I get the point you're after better now, but DBNG is probably not consistent across all aspects of game play. Or at least I don't expect an odds faceplant in one part of the game to be rectified by another aspect of game play. That's probably some gambler's fallacy type expectation there. As terrible as DBNG is, it's easy to fall into observation bias.
But yes, random is a joke, especially when invoked by CS reps. *insert "you keep using that word" meme here*
By these odds, with each person spinning at least 365 times per year, the average should be each person hitting the top row 3 times per year. I will bet not one of us has hit the top row three times in a year unless someone has multiple spun until they hit the top row intentionally.
Why getting 3rd streak of gauntlet is harder?
Why you keep getting walls of same characters?
Why your shuttles fail at 99%?
Why it is almost impossible to get anything the top row in daboo?
Why you keep getting the same duplicate crews even though you still have 200-300 crews not immortalized?
There is RNG in play of course but algorithm controls the weight of it. And guess who implemented that lovely algorithm?
1) Because your crew is more fatigued from the prior two rounds. No one, to my knowledge, has presented any statistical evidence showing that the third round of gauntlets are any less likely to win than you would have otherwise.
2) Because people have and use the same, most powerful characters.
3) The statistics Hope has compiled on shuttle success display rates being wrong are pretty compelling. I'm pretty sure there's a discrepancy between the shuttle success algorithm and the algorithm used to display expected success.
4) Because no one wins at dabo
5) This is a good explanation of a similar "problem": https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-birthday-paradox/. Simply put, the odds of it happening are significantly higher than you give it credit for.
I once hit the top row twice in a week. All only doing the single credit pull. It happens, but it's rare. Rare events can be streaky. Just because you've been unlucky doesn't mean someone else hasn't been lucky.
I stand by my statement I would be willing to bet money not one of us has hit the top row three times in a year.
1/ nah. You can wait til your crew is not fatigued and it's always harder.
2/ happens more when you hit the top 20-30 and sticks around. Up til then there is lots of variety.
3/ I had a 99/99/97 failure. Statistically extremely unlikely. Shuttles are weird. Everybody knows it.
4/ Haha. The tables are rigged. I learned that from Quark.
5/ I find it harder to fully fuse crew than get a new card. It depends on your crew. I worked out the odds for super-rares (for my crew) and it's something like having a 25% chance of getting a card I already have. Some of them are already fully fused. I stand a much greater chance of getting a new card or an existing card than adding a star. I basically need more crew slots.
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RE #2: Yes, I would expect the top 20-30 people in any given gauntlet to be running most of the same crew since there is almost always a "best" team for any given gauntlet. Those with the best crew tend to bubble up to the top. Those with worse crew do worse.