Further Proof that shuttle success % displayed is wrong
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I just got a mission: SCI and SEC / ENG / ENG or SEC.
I have Detective Data in the SCI and SEC node, One in the ENG node, and Dress Uniform Scotty in the ENG or SEC node.
When I apply a SEC boost, it's 77% (just Detective Data getting boosted). When I apply an ENG boost, I was expecting it to be higher, since 2 crew have ENG skills. But it's the same 77%.
I submitted a ticket, hopefully this will finally get resolved.
I have Detective Data in the SCI and SEC node, One in the ENG node, and Dress Uniform Scotty in the ENG or SEC node.
When I apply a SEC boost, it's 77% (just Detective Data getting boosted). When I apply an ENG boost, I was expecting it to be higher, since 2 crew have ENG skills. But it's the same 77%.
I submitted a ticket, hopefully this will finally get resolved.
1
Comments
So that's
DD: SEC 1214 SCI 905
One: ENG 1128
DUS: ENG 981
Part two is yet another bug: in an "A or B" slot, if your crew has ONLY A and not B, a boost for B will have NO effect. However, if your crew has ONLY B and not A (as is the case with your Scotty), BOTH boosts will work, and will have the same effect.
I knew about #1, so the math works out like this:
1: ((1214 + .25 x 905)+250) + 1128 + 981 + 0 (no sec bonus) = 3549
2: (1214 + .25 x 905) + (1128 + 250) + (981 + 250) = 4029
But, I didn't know about #2. Are you sure you're not mixing it up with a known "feature" for AND slots - meaning say ENG and SEC, applying a SEC boost on Scotty, he gets the full effect of the boost?
I didn't think the bug worked on OR slots as well.
Either way with your formula the values are 3799 and 4049, so adding the bugged 250 to the first values results in the same number.
Yep, just try it yourself, use any mission with any OR slot.
The formula for AND slots is supposed to be:
HigherSkill + (LowerSkill / 4)
I don't think they have ever officially commented on how exactly boosts are supposed to work with that formula.
I think the boost is a base number (not a multiplier) regardless of whether it is the stronger of the skills in an AND slot or even if you do not have that skill. I have had characters with only skill A for an AND slot with no skill B and using a B boost still increases the success. The same does not seem to apply for OR slots.
2x Bonus characters and 3x event characters also get an increased multiplier for the boost slot as well it seems although I have not tested if it is 2 or 3x the standard flat bonus. That’s why in events it is is sometime better to use a “weaker” bonus character (after adjusting for the bonus) than a stronger regular character IF the slot is going to be boosted... For example, a 500 point SEC bonus character (doubled to 1000) is better than a 1100 point SEC regular character if you are going to use a SEC boost.
Trista
So if the slot has the stat that is being boosted that slot adds the boost to the crews no matter if they have the skill or not.
Ran some checks. I noticed if the crew has both skills in an OR slot it will actually be added to the crew stats. So a lower skill that is boosted will be used instead of higher skill if the boost makes it higher. ( I also suspect if lower boosted is not higher, then no boost happens for lower skill) However, if the crew has only one stat it gets the boost for either stat.
I can confirm if the lower skill boosted is not higher than the higher skill, there will be no boost.
But if crew only had one skill, either boost of OR slot skills will boost them.
Edit: I made the mistake of forgetting that if crew has neither skill on an OR slot he will just get what the boost gives him.
It is confusing but Crunch has it right. If you have a crew with the first skill but not the second, he only gets a boost for that first skill. If the crew has the second skill of the OR he will get a boost for either skill boosted.
I totally agree. If I have, say DIP or ENG, and I put a diplomat there, I will still get just as much bonus for an engineering boost
If a slot has the skill available in either an AND or and OR configuration, then a boost will trigger for that slot, regardless of if the crew actually has that skill.
Formula for AND is (higher + 1/4 lower) + boost for either skill.
Formula for OR is (higher) + boost for either skill.
Ah. I did not know that. I stand corrected
that is correct for event shuttles, or at least seems correct according to displayed projected success percentages. however, OR slots on regular day to day shuttles do not follow this pattern. regular OR slots DO require the crew to possess a skill that matches both the slot and the the boost you're applying, or the boost won't work.
Try it. That is what I did. Put crew in without either OR skill 0% success. Then boosted with either skill, crew gets bonus.
Edit: I am making a big mistake. That is, the boost gets added to zero. So yes they will get the boost. So I have to say you must be right.
Okay I get it Crunch you are right. And I have to believe it is an error. If I have a crew with the first skill but not the second in an OR he only gets a boost for the skill he has.
If I have a crew with the second skilll he will get a boost for both as above shows.
It is even worse, if my crew has both skills, if the larger one is the second skill of the OR slot that skill will get boosted by either boost.
If the larger one is the first then only that boost will effect the larger stat. The smaller skill (or the second in OR) wil get the other boost.
A typical way of doing it in code would be to do rand(100) - giving a random number between 0 and 100. If the random number is less than the percentage likelihood it’s a success, else fail.
Woah! For someone who knows nothing about such things, I have to say I’ve never heard that but it makes sense to use that as the method
A possible explanation is that when you read the mission synopsis it mentions a "starfleet" crew perhaps traits are involved and has more significance on the boost being applied rather than just the skill and therefore the non starfleet crew gives a reduced or nullifying effect perhaps.
We already know traits are used in faction events I wouldn't be surprised if they aren't used to some extent in non faction events.
IIRC, that includes zero and 100, which gives you 101 numbers that might be chosen. Which would explain how 0%ers succeed, if it's more of a if randNumber > successRate, shuttle = fail, rather than if successRate < randNumber, shuttle = succeed. So that in the case that randNumber = successRate, it succeeds. So 0 percenters succeed a little under 1% of the time.
I do wonder if the server's method of calculating percentages differs from the way the UI calculates and displays them, though. It could make sense if they use a more complicated equation on the server side than on the UI side, in order to allow for faster calculations of percentages.
Just a thought.
Please note: It's been years since I even thought about doing more coding than an Excel/Google Sheets workbook, or a Wiki edit. I'd like to request you go gentle on me in the case that I am completely and irrevocably wrong. (Which is all too likely.
The "success at 0%" problem was solved months (years?) ago. The formula they use for display the success rates was reverse engineered and available on the wiki:
https://stt.wiki/wiki/Faction_Missions
If you substitute 0 for "AvgSkill", you wind up with about a 15% mission failure rate. Why DB displays "0%" when there are very low skill characters, I have no clue. But, if you run a large number of missions with level 1 crew, you should see approximately a 15% success rate.
There is a separate, but similar, issue relating to displayed success rates when "Leveled" crew is in place. I'm not sure that this behavior has, yet, been specifically described, just that a pretty large sampling of displayed success rates vs. actual success rates has shown a discrepancy.
I'm going to say with pretty much absolutely certainty that this is incorrect. Somwhere in the exchange was a miscommunication and/or misunderstanding. There is no active process that monitors success rates across all players and then creates more successes or failures to force overall successes to the average. That doesn't pass the sniff test.
What CS was likely trying to explain is that individual variance in shuttle success can occur while overall it averages out correct. It's the same thing as saying you can flip a fair coin and have it come out heads 5 in a row, and still average out to 50/50 in a larger sample.
None of this precludes the very likely possibility that displayed success rates are incorrect in certain situations.
I've received the identical canned response from DB on several occasions, stating that my personal success is influenced by the wider universal success of all players, at least during faction events. When I asked follow-up questions to confirm that more than just my mission's posted success rate % and individual RNG impact my success as a player, they confirmed that there is in fact a universal portion that impacts all players.
I wonder if that universal portion is what leads to the maddening failures on the VP=1800-2750 range of event shuttles, usually followed by successes on the VP=3500-4000's.
I don't think Dralix is disputing that CS is saying these things. I think the point is that probability is a difficult thing to explain/understand and that CS is, likely, doing a very poor job of it. If their development is actually doing some of this, then, I would agree, it's a little silly to also display an expected success rate that isn't reflective of whatever "universal" number is happening.
What I think is more likely is that whoever wrote that email template had about 75% understanding of what probability is and did a poor job explaining the idea that small sample sizes aren't necessarily representative of the whole.
Exactly. This is probably further compounded by language issues with the CSR, and in some cases the player, being non-native English speakers.