Zipf approach to Event Rewards (Proposal)
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[TUFG] Siguard
✭✭✭
in The Bridge
Here is a proposal to make Solo Event Rewards seem fair.
Background:
It's extremely difficult to be in the top 10 and moderately difficult to be in the top 1000. Many players don't feel that the event rewards reflect those levels of difficulty. I personally tend to agree. The 1000th rank being the cut off for 1-5*Crew seems fair for its level of difficulty and the 1st rank seems fair, but the spots in the middle don't seem as fair. There's not really that much of a reward difference between rank 76 and rank 1000. That's a pretty big gap for not much more of a reward.
The Zipf's Law:
In case you don't know, The Zipf's Law describes that pretty much every real world statistical data set will follow a power curve. (Vsause did an ok video describing it) These power curves on a log,log chart form a straight line. Player's rank vs. victory points show this. That's why the gap in victory points between first and second place are always so big as compared to rank 1000.
Event Reward's Value:
Most of the currencies in-game can be converted to an equivalent value of Dilithium. An example for the value of a 5*Crew would be that a 10xPremium Time Portal pull is 650 dil, the drop rate for a 5*Crew in that pack is 1.27%, so the formula would be 650 dil / (10 pulls at 1.27%), or ~5,118 dil.
Using formulas like this and others (including just guessing for Merits), we can find the value for the Event Rewards.
Graphed out on a log,log chart of Rank vs. Dilithium Value:
From the graph, you can see that the event rewards aren't spread out evenly. If you draw a line from rank 1 to rank 1000, you can see the ranks in between dip below that line, which means they don't get the equivalent rewards for their rank as either rank 1 or rank 1000. This inequality is more evident in the lower ranks.
The Equatable Event Rewards Solution:
Using Zipf's Law and current event reward standard practices (like if you get 1-5*Crew you'll automatically get 4-4*Crew), I've come up with this:
I've added a column for Honor to fill in some of the inequality gaps. The time portal pulls jump around a bit because the loss of 1-5*Crew is the single biggest drop to the reward values. Also, If I came in at Rank 1001, I'd be disappointed that I didn't get the 5*Crew, but consoled with the 10x pull I'd get.
It's not perfect, but I think adding Honor and sliding some values around would be a great step in making the Event Rewards more equatable.
All that being said, I understand that Event Rewards aren't on DB's radar and there are still some long-term bugs floating around that need their attention. I'm just trying to offer a solution where DB doesn't need to spend the time and effort figuring it out.
Thanks
Background:
It's extremely difficult to be in the top 10 and moderately difficult to be in the top 1000. Many players don't feel that the event rewards reflect those levels of difficulty. I personally tend to agree. The 1000th rank being the cut off for 1-5*Crew seems fair for its level of difficulty and the 1st rank seems fair, but the spots in the middle don't seem as fair. There's not really that much of a reward difference between rank 76 and rank 1000. That's a pretty big gap for not much more of a reward.
The Zipf's Law:
In case you don't know, The Zipf's Law describes that pretty much every real world statistical data set will follow a power curve. (Vsause did an ok video describing it) These power curves on a log,log chart form a straight line. Player's rank vs. victory points show this. That's why the gap in victory points between first and second place are always so big as compared to rank 1000.
Event Reward's Value:
Most of the currencies in-game can be converted to an equivalent value of Dilithium. An example for the value of a 5*Crew would be that a 10xPremium Time Portal pull is 650 dil, the drop rate for a 5*Crew in that pack is 1.27%, so the formula would be 650 dil / (10 pulls at 1.27%), or ~5,118 dil.
Using formulas like this and others (including just guessing for Merits), we can find the value for the Event Rewards.
Graphed out on a log,log chart of Rank vs. Dilithium Value:
From the graph, you can see that the event rewards aren't spread out evenly. If you draw a line from rank 1 to rank 1000, you can see the ranks in between dip below that line, which means they don't get the equivalent rewards for their rank as either rank 1 or rank 1000. This inequality is more evident in the lower ranks.
The Equatable Event Rewards Solution:
Using Zipf's Law and current event reward standard practices (like if you get 1-5*Crew you'll automatically get 4-4*Crew), I've come up with this:
I've added a column for Honor to fill in some of the inequality gaps. The time portal pulls jump around a bit because the loss of 1-5*Crew is the single biggest drop to the reward values. Also, If I came in at Rank 1001, I'd be disappointed that I didn't get the 5*Crew, but consoled with the 10x pull I'd get.
It's not perfect, but I think adding Honor and sliding some values around would be a great step in making the Event Rewards more equatable.
All that being said, I understand that Event Rewards aren't on DB's radar and there are still some long-term bugs floating around that need their attention. I'm just trying to offer a solution where DB doesn't need to spend the time and effort figuring it out.
Thanks
Star Trek Timelines Wiki- Admiral
23
Comments
(and we won't even talk about the squadron rewards).
This would be an excellent improvement, and very fair too
Captain Level: 95
VIP Level: 12
Unique Crew Immortalized: 525
Collections Completed: Vulcan, Ferengi, Borg, Romulan, Cardassian, Uncommon, Rare, Veteran, Common, Engineered, Physician, Innovator, Inspiring, Diplomat, Jury Rigger, Gauntlet Legends
I purposefully hold back from competing (beyond top 1000), since at this point rank ~100-1000 is regularly doable but it's not worth it for me to go for top 15 each week or even every other month. 100% I support and advocate for smoothing through the ranks, so that rank 16-26 for example, doesn't give essentially the same rewards as rank 1000.
Expansion (or adaptiveness) to match player influx would also greatly improve the game and its longevity. With an increasing player population, but lack of update in the ranked reward structure, it's becoming harder to get the ranked 1/5* to the point where many older and newer players alike are becoming discouraged. It's at least twice as hard now as it was a year or two ago. That doesn't make it more fun or more valuable, it's just less return on investment.
The "competition is at an all-time high, so we think it's working well" response in the Q&A, I couldn't disagree with more. Just because there's high participation doesn't mean it couldn't be higher, or that there aren't issues to deal with. It's not mutually exclusive. In fact, growing participation is a large part of why the structure stands to benefit from updating.
Some ideas for addressing this, are a percentage-based system for the rewards, which would adapt to any number of players as it changes over time.
We can also have the event 1/5* obtainable from the threshold rewards, at approximately the amount of VP it took to get them from rank a year or so ago.
As an additional (not the only) possibility, I like the idea of replacing some of the extra copies of crew in the ranks with honour instead, to lessen duplicates and make it flow more with the front-page statement "Assemble a crew of your favourite characters..."
There are also other threads on possible changes to the event reward structure in the Make It So! forum, and we invite your collaboration & thoughts. The most recent version of a reward structure ideas chart, with smoothed rewards through the ranks:
https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/comment/71166/#Comment_71166
~· Fly with the Subspace Eddies! ·~
Participation in events is at an all time high. As such, we believe players are already highly attracted to the rewards and the events themselves. That being said, as we have a growing diversity amongst how long players have been in the game, we are looking at what we can do to make events more interesting across all levels of experience with STT.
I’ve started to slack off now. I’ve stopped using shuttle boosts and I’m being a little more lax in turning my shuttles around.
Now, If I had an incentive to try to improve my rank to something that was achievable and worthwhile....
Maybe not their intention, but I've come around to thinking that it's a good thing. Unless you're fighting for a top 25 finish, you can have a relatively relaxing weekend and still get solid rewards, with little FOMO in the top 1000 ranks.
If rewards are increased in ranks 26-1000, expect a lot more of this.
I can now say I bought the smartest guy on the forums dinner.
This has been my experience as well for quite some time, especially in faction events. Aside from getting a few extra single premium pulls and merits, there's really no difference between 76-1,000 in the rankings.
With regards to the OP, the other option would be for DB to simply eliminate most of the tiers altogether. It could look something like this:
1. #1
2. #2-10
3. #11-100
4. #101-1,000
5. #1,001 - 10,000
6. #10,001 - 50,000
7. #50,001 - 100,000
8. #100,001+
HA! Thanks.
The only thing I would challenge is that this solution doesn't address duplicates, or the variation in utility of the rewards among captains with different crew rosters. How do you account for the difference in value between a crew you needed, versus a duplicate crew which just gets airlocked?
For example, in the event that just finished, I ranked 49th. I already had Pel and Brunt immortalized prior to the start of the event. So, all those 4* Pels and 3* Brunts just got air locked. Which means that the actual value or utility of the reward which I earned is different and lower from someone who might have needed those crew and didn't airlock them. So, what I actually/effective received, instead of useful crew was 1,100 honor.
I think that is likely there is a swarm of thousands of freshly airlocked Brunts, and hundreds of Pels floating around. DB knows that most of the active players at this point, particularly those in the top 2000 or so, will be airlocking at least the 3*, if not most of the 4* (depending on the event, and the captain). Therefore, I'd like to see the difference you'd calculate in dilithum, for crew that you can use vs one that you airlock.
This is one of the reasons I advocated finding a way to minimize duplicates, because it alters the actual/effective value of whatever reward you earn. Which, decreases incentive to compete in the events. Whereas a reasonable amount of honor, useful to everyone, could potentially increase the incentive to compete in events.
I also made an attempt, Event Rewards, Threshold:Crew and Ranked:Honor over in Make It So!, which was meant to help outline and visualize some of the suggestions which have been discussed, and reasons for doing so, in terms of changes to the event reward structure. The third version of which shows one possible way of doing things which attempts to combine some of the predominate suggestions (percentage based ranks, smoothed rewards) with my own suggestion of moving the crew into the thresholds as a way to address the ongoing issues with honor and duplicates.
That said, let's consider context from October Timelines Q&A:
Then, after the near future passed us by, during the Q&A with Admiral Prince April '18
There were lots of people who asked questions about changes in the event reward structure for the last Q&A. I for one would be curious to know exactly how we went from changes to the event rewards being planned for the "near future" during the previous Q&A in october, to "we believe players are already highly attracted to the rewards".
+1
Consider participating in civil discourse, understanding the Tardigrade, and wandering with the Subspace Eddies.
My suggestion advocated for greater smoothing throughout the ranks, top to bottom. This threads event reward suggestion could be used to demonstrate some possibility like that as well.
Also, given that we are all swimming in the same ocean, what effects the whales and everyone else's participation in events, effects the game as a whole.
Consider participating in civil discourse, understanding the Tardigrade, and wandering with the Subspace Eddies.
Well, I was just using the top 1000 rewards as an example. All of the ranks lower than 1000 have higher rewards than they do currently.
Folks who weren't habitués of the old forum may not remember this, but recall when DB did a survey that included which event types people preferred, and the clear preference by respondents was for Faction events. DB took that into account, sent Nod onto the forums to spin the results, and promptly continued churning out Galaxy events because the logical conclusion from the survey and their revenue numbers were that people who spend on the game dislike Galaxy events so much that they're willing to pay their way out of having to participate.
I wish that weren't the natural conclusion, but the complete disregard for us is palpable.
There are plenty of F2P and low VIP players ranking under 1k. It may be hard for newer players, but those of us that have been around for 2 years are ranking under 1k and have all the same reward complaints without spending money.
Very true. Iknamur, from VIP0, ranked #11 last event (the Rule 125 rerun). StellarIce, admiral of VIP0, ranked #1 in a galaxy event in November. (Although I hear SSR is trying to seduce her to the dark side...)
Not only do people with low VIP levels rank in the top 1000, they can rank a heck of a lot higher.
As it is now, what incentive is there to get higher than the minimum for the 5 star event crew? I was rank 146 last event and there isn't that much difference between that and 999. I just ran my shuttles, was squad leader and ended up there by chance didn't spend any dilithium. In galaxy events I only shoot for the 900's, sane with expedition (as rarely as those are). Why shoot higher after you achieve the achievement?
As is this needs to seriously be looked at. I've been here since the beginning, and I'm getting burnt out. I stay cuz of the lore, but seeing how greedy DB is being is putting a bad taste in my mouth. I'm not planning on renewing my VIP next week. However if they reworked the rewards to reflect the actual numbers now, and the effort, it will encourage me and others. Giving honor is a great idea. Since we get the purples from community rewards and threshold the honor will be well used.