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Are at-large pulls broken

ReginoldJuddReginoldJudd ✭✭✭
in Engineering Room
What I mean is: when you pull a 10-pack, you a have one guaranteed purple or gold and the rest have a 6.33% chance each of getting a purple or gold. I call these remaining 9 at-large pulls because they have no guarantee. In one pack, you have a 45% chance of getting at least one bonus purple or gold, based on the stated values.

In 15 packs, with 135 at-large, you have a 99.9853% chance of getting at least ONE at-large pull.

I got zero.

Comments

  • YateballYateball ✭✭✭✭✭
    The math doesn't work. Just because you have a 6.33% chance each pull doesn't mean you can add that percent together and say there's a higher percent per 10x. Each and every pull re-rolls the 6.33% meaning your 99.9853 in a 15 bundle is also inaccurate
  • ReginoldJuddReginoldJudd ✭✭✭
    Yes I understand that. But in any given group of 135 you do have a 99.98% chance of getting at least one.

    That is, yes each one rolls individually on a 6% chance, but 135 attempts at a 6% chance will yield at least one positive result in 9998 trials out of 10000
  • SST - 9of7SST - 9of7 ✭✭✭
    Mathematically you are right, but I think your assumption is wrong.

    From what people have guessed how the 10 pull works, it's 9 pulls and if non of them are 4*+ a final guaranteed 4*.

    That means you do not have 0/135 but 15/150 (some of which were 4* on random, some not)
  • ReginoldJuddReginoldJudd ✭✭✭
    SST - 9of7 wrote: »
    Mathematically you are right, but I think your assumption is wrong.

    From what people have guessed how the 10 pull works, it's 9 pulls and if non of them are 4*+ a final guaranteed 4*.

    That means you do not have 0/135 but 15/150 (some of which were 4* on random, some not)

    If that’s how that works, it **tsk tsk** quite a lot.

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