Voyage Gripe

GhostStalker

So here's the thing. You start a voyage with great numbers. You get some good prizes. Crew, replicator rations, lots of chrons. It's going well.

And then you hit the end of your AM. And you think to yourself, this has been a good voyage. Perhaps you're very close to that 8 hour mark. Perhaps you've gotten TWO purple crew and you think "I'm going to let this ride and see what comes up." After all, when it rains, it pours.

So you refresh the AM.

And then you proceed to get absolutely jack. Credits and Trainers. For the entire second run, you get absolutely no crew, no replicator rations, and barely any extra chrons. To make it even worse, your dilemma comes up and it's a junk one.

Why do I always feel like I should have cashed out when I was ahead?

PenguinJim

Well... because you should have. Once you're getting past the six-hour mark, even if it's just 6:20, you've got two decent chances there for a free purple crew. Low on AM? Recall it, and get another two free decent chances later on.

I know 100 Dil is only $0.13 as part of a monthly card, but if you're refreshing Voyages regularly, it adds up. All that Voyage stuff is available for free if you give it time.

(The exception being the 20-hour run that people should do at some point to get that 10K honor!)

Peachtree Rex

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

You are just as likely to have an exceptional post-refill as you are to have pre-refill. Since you had an above average "Part 1", it's more likely that "Part 2" will be worse (because an average "Part 2" would be worse than your "Part 1").

I never have gone into a voyage with the expectation of extending it. The only times it's close is if I can expect to get two additional dilemmas out of it (like a fail at 7:55).

Dirk Gunderson

The only times I extend are when I miss a low AM warning or I've gotten multiple 4* crew. And if the next couple of hours don’t yield any further 4* crew, it gets recalled...no need to extend to 10+ hours unless you’re going for the achievement or good stuff drops that is impossible to get in quantity through 6 hours.

SST - 9of7

Peachtree Rex wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

You are just as likely to have an exceptional post-refill as you are to have pre-refill. Since you had an above average "Part 1", it's more likely that "Part 2" will be worse (because an average "Part 2" would be worse than your "Part 1").

I never have gone into a voyage with the expectation of extending it. The only times it's close is if I can expect to get two additional dilemmas out of it (like a fail at 7:55).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy might be an interesting read for you.

Peachtree Rex

SST - 9of7 wrote: »

Peachtree Rex wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

You are just as likely to have an exceptional post-refill as you are to have pre-refill. Since you had an above average "Part 1", it's more likely that "Part 2" will be worse (because an average "Part 2" would be worse than your "Part 1").

I never have gone into a voyage with the expectation of extending it. The only times it's close is if I can expect to get two additional dilemmas out of it (like a fail at 7:55).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy might be an interesting read for you.

Yup, that's one I like to link from time to time as well (it was my signature in the old forums).

...unless your implication is that I'm committing the Gambler's Fallacy, which I'd be interested in knowing why as I think I worded my response pretty carefully to avoid it.

GhostStalker

I should have clarified, I don't typically extend voyages. A lot of my experiences are when I accidentally let it run out, and I didn't want to sacrifice the good stuff I'd already gotten. I refill it and proceed to get absolutely NOTHING good during the rest of the run. Credits and trainers, man. Credits and trainers.

But sometimes I do choose to extend them. Because when you start with 2900 AM and great stats, you can easily get to 10 hours on one refill.

S14 Bri

I often extend voyages as much for the chrons as anything else.... I only really level crew every two or three days with a supply kit, so between gorging on chrons, I usually have a period of acquiring them through voyages and like someone said, mainly if I get close to 8 hours and can get an additional two dilemmas.

Besides, I think the flow of chrons is more steady and predictable than other items

SST - 9of7

Peachtree Rex wrote: »

SST - 9of7 wrote: »

Peachtree Rex wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

You are just as likely to have an exceptional post-refill as you are to have pre-refill. Since you had an above average "Part 1", it's more likely that "Part 2" will be worse (because an average "Part 2" would be worse than your "Part 1").

I never have gone into a voyage with the expectation of extending it. The only times it's close is if I can expect to get two additional dilemmas out of it (like a fail at 7:55).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy might be an interesting read for you.

Yup, that's one I like to link from time to time as well (it was my signature in the old forums).

...unless your implication is that I'm committing the Gambler's Fallacy, which I'd be interested in knowing why as I think I worded my response pretty carefully to avoid it.

I have to apologise! It read like you would imply worse chances after the refill, because of chances evening out.
But you just said that the above average result before the refill, will be followed by "normal" probabilities, which will most likely lead to average results and thus "feeling worse".

So it is a perfect analysis!

Let's just say that gamblers fallacy fits for the OP, as he thought he was on a lucky "streak".

[SSR] GTMET

Only time that I refill is when I can get high value. i.e. multiple dilemmas, very high AM, and/or very high primary stats that lead to extensions of 3+ hours.

WaldoMag

The only way to know if the streak is over is to try one refill.
You did and it was over. So you brought them home.

For that refill, I still think you got more Chrons than just 45. (One chron in voyage and 30 for dilemma) To break even as far as MWF cadet one refill you need to get 1 chron for every dil. spent
So if your refill cost 90 dil. you want to get 90 chron.

If you got that you came out ahead no matter what.

jestergenie

SST - 9of7 wrote: »

Peachtree Rex wrote: »

SST - 9of7 wrote: »

Peachtree Rex wrote: »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

You are just as likely to have an exceptional post-refill as you are to have pre-refill. Since you had an above average "Part 1", it's more likely that "Part 2" will be worse (because an average "Part 2" would be worse than your "Part 1").

I never have gone into a voyage with the expectation of extending it. The only times it's close is if I can expect to get two additional dilemmas out of it (like a fail at 7:55).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy might be an interesting read for you.

Yup, that's one I like to link from time to time as well (it was my signature in the old forums).

...unless your implication is that I'm committing the Gambler's Fallacy, which I'd be interested in knowing why as I think I worded my response pretty carefully to avoid it.

I have to apologise! It read like you would imply worse chances after the refill, because of chances evening out.
But you just said that the above average result before the refill, will be followed by "normal" probabilities, which will most likely lead to average results and thus "feeling worse".

So it is a perfect analysis!

Let's just say that gamblers fallacy fits for the OP, as he thought he was on a lucky "streak".

This kind of "average" reasoning is still very tricky. In fact you can't predict how many trials it will take to average statistical results. It's perfectly fine to say that second part will be as bad as first part and third part could be even worse than first and second. There is only one thing sure here - you eventually manage to average your voyage's outcome but there is no way to know how long it will take. You could continue your voyage for hundred years and still be far from reaching average point.

RikerWasNumber1

GhostStalker wrote: »

So here's the thing. You start a voyage with great numbers. You get some good prizes. Crew, replicator rations, lots of chrons. It's going well.

And then you hit the end of your AM. And you think to yourself, this has been a good voyage. Perhaps you're very close to that 8 hour mark. Perhaps you've gotten TWO purple crew and you think "I'm going to let this ride and see what comes up." After all, when it rains, it pours.

So you refresh the AM.

And then you proceed to get absolutely jack. Credits and Trainers. For the entire second run, you get absolutely no crew, no replicator rations, and barely any extra chrons. To make it even worse, your dilemma comes up and it's a junk one.

Why do I always feel like I should have cashed out when I was ahead?

Nobody is forcing you to cash out that is your choice. You have freedom.