Home› The Bridge

Anyone Know the Best Chance of Odds?

Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited May 2018 in The Bridge
I know they are displayed but what do they mean to me? Does it mean I have a 1.27% chance to get Burnham on a single pull or is it even less than that because that is the chance to get a legendary period. Then there is the 10-pull. I thought I saw that with a 10-pull your odds are 12% to get a legendary but this does not help us with the odds of getting the Best Chance Of crew, merely the odds of getting a legendary at all. Basically my question is, if I do a ten pull, what are the odds of actually getting a Burnham out of it?

Comments

  • Peachtree RexPeachtree Rex ✭✭✭✭✭
    Banjo1012 wrote: »
    I know they are displayed but what do they mean to me? Does it mean I have a 1.27% chance to get Burnham on a single pull or is it even less than that because that is the chance to get a legendary period. Then there is the 10-pull. I thought I saw that with a 10-pull your odds are 12% to get a legendary but this does not help us with the odds of getting the Best Chance Of crew, merely the odds of getting a legendary at all. Basically my question is, if I do a ten pull, what are the odds of actually getting a Burnham out of it?

    I believe the odds are 1.27% to get a 5* on a single pull. A 10 pull is made of 9 "1.27%" slots and one slot that is 90% odds of a 4* and 10% odds of a 5*.

    Your odds of getting Burnham are some subset of those legendary odds. I don't believe it's published.
  • Nero84Nero84 ✭✭✭
    So I decided to waste a 10 pull and try my luck... Got 2 super rare beholds and a legendary behold... No option for Burnham but got offered Augment Picard which will help for mega event but it did get me wondering what are the odds if a legendary is picked that Burnham is an option. It obviously isn't guaranteed.
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Shouldn’t those odds also be published as well? It is a gamble pull costing money
  • Althea BiermontAlthea Biermont ✭✭✭✭✭
    1.27% chance of getting a gold crew with a single pull. A 10 pack gives you a 1.27% chance on each of the 10. If you trigger the gold by getting the 1.27%, then it means that the odds of getting the "best chance" crew are greater than it being a different gold crew. They just don't give us the odds on that part.
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Althea Biermont wrote: »
    1.27% chance of getting a gold crew with a single pull. A 10 pack gives you a 1.27% chance on each of the 10. If you trigger the gold by getting the 1.27%, then it means that the odds of getting the "best chance" crew are greater than it being a different gold crew. They just don't give us the odds on that part.

    So then it becomes what are the odds, when getting a gold, of that gold being the Best Chance crew. For instance, 12% chance of a gold, 6% chance of a Burnham. Or 12% of a gold, 50% chance that gold is a Burnham.

  • AmphistaffAmphistaff ✭✭✭✭✭
    Banjo1012 wrote: »
    Althea Biermont wrote: »
    1.27% chance of getting a gold crew with a single pull. A 10 pack gives you a 1.27% chance on each of the 10. If you trigger the gold by getting the 1.27%, then it means that the odds of getting the "best chance" crew are greater than it being a different gold crew. They just don't give us the odds on that part.

    So then it becomes what are the odds, when getting a gold, of that gold being the Best Chance crew. For instance, 12% chance of a gold, 6% chance of a Burnham. Or 12% of a gold, 50% chance that gold is a Burnham.

    Nobody has ever known and DB isn't telling.
  • LummelundaLummelunda ✭✭
    Not a very good chance, it seems. I really want Burnham, so I got around 15 10-pulls. No Burnham in sight.
  • [S14] Elynduil[S14] Elynduil ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    I can understand that it might be difficult to publish that on the tooltip because of space limitations. However, there is nothing preventing them from publishing it on the forums.

    Probability information is not complete without this last piece of the puzzle. Put it in an announcement, DB.

    Speculation: I would not be surprised if "featured" means double the chance of getting a different crew of the same rarity. As in, there are 187 legendaries at the moment. So the chance of Burnham being the legendary that you get, if you get one, is 2/188, or 1.06%, of the 1.27% of a normal slot or the 10% of a guaranteed slot. I.e. 0.0135% on a normal slot and 0.106% on the guaranteed slot. That would mean it's the "best chance" since she isn't competing with any other legendaries for featured status and you're more likely to get her than any other legendary... it's just not a "great chance". :|

    Is a legendary always in a behold? That would increase your chances slightly more.
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Elynduil wrote: »
    I can understand that it might be difficult to publish that on the tooltip because of space limitations. However, there is nothing preventing them from publishing it on the forums.

    Probability information is not complete without this last piece of the puzzle. Put it in an announcement, DB.

    As for myself, I would not be surprised if "featured" means double the chance of getting a different crew of the same rarity. As in, there are 187 legendaries at the moment. So the chance of Burnham being the legendary that you get, if you get one, is 2/188, or 1.06% of the 1.27%. That would mean it's the "best chance" since she isn't competing with any other legendaries for featured status and you're more likely to get her than any other legendary... it's just not a "great chance". :|

    Right. Saying “hey man, this is your best chance” is not the same as saying “you have a good chance”.

  • RikerWasNumber1RikerWasNumber1 ✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    The best of packs haven't been around in a while. I guess DB is hoping all of us don't remember our nearly 100% chance of disappointment from these packs. I interpret this as a desperate grab for our money since the Jake swarm of Bees packs aren't doing so hot. Nobody in my fleet is buying event packs as we all get a FF Archer with no money. Nice try DB.
  • jestergeniejestergenie ✭✭✭
    There is only one logical way to deal with these packs. Simply ignore them.
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jestergenie wrote: »
    There is only one logical way to deal with these packs. Simply ignore them.

    Agreed. It was dirty pool putting Burnham in one as the only way to get her for months

  • Althea BiermontAlthea Biermont ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you think about it, in a Best Chance pack they could actually lower the chance of the featured crew to be a quarter of what any other specific legendary crew would be and it would still be your "Best Chance" because you can't get it anywhere else. So they could make the odds one-in-a-million and it's still your "best chance" if you want that crew since you can't get them elsewhere. That's a sobering thought.
  • (CSF) Jesus Is Lord [••••](CSF) Jesus Is Lord [••••] ✭✭✭✭✭
    Althea Biermont wrote: »
    If you think about it, in a Best Chance pack they could actually lower the chance of the featured crew to be a quarter of what any other specific legendary crew would be and it would still be your "Best Chance" because you can't get it anywhere else. So they could make the odds one-in-a-million and it's still your "best chance" if you want that crew since you can't get them elsewhere. That's a sobering thought.

    Just a reminder, First Officer Burnham is in the regular premium pack loot table so you can get her elsewhere.
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    (CSF) Jesus Is Lord [••••] wrote: »
    Althea Biermont wrote: »
    If you think about it, in a Best Chance pack they could actually lower the chance of the featured crew to be a quarter of what any other specific legendary crew would be and it would still be your "Best Chance" because you can't get it anywhere else. So they could make the odds one-in-a-million and it's still your "best chance" if you want that crew since you can't get them elsewhere. That's a sobering thought.

    Just a reminder, First Officer Burnham is in the regular premium pack loot table so you can get her elsewhere.

    Yes I did get her from a behold. I was like BOO YEAH!
  • ·§ë· For the Many·§ë· For the Many ✭✭✭✭✭
    Approximately a -5.81% chance.
    Welcome to the Star Trek Timelines Discord server
    ~· Fly with the Subspace Eddies! ·~
  • [QH] Oxmyx[QH] Oxmyx ✭✭✭✭
    Odds are you won’t get what you want you will get garbage most likely. Avoid these packs like the plague they are, they are money pits.
    Fleet= Quarks Holosuite
  • WaldoMagWaldoMag ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    After reading the posts, I think DB should just make it a 50% chance that if you get a legendary or a begold that you will get the best chance legendary.

    One thing from postings now and before I can say that it most likely is just double the odds. That might as well be ignored as any better chance. As mentioned above 2/188 instead of 1/188.

    Edit: Thought of adding this. If I have a best chance pack for a legendary. If it has only twice the chance over a normal legendary. Then if I buy 94 x10 packs I would get one on the average. Where as, i would have to buy 188 x10 packs to get one of everybody and two of the best chance legendary on the average. Putting this up seems like this could be smaller than actual chance. But none of us really know because most of us avoid these best chance packs.
  • ReginoldJuddReginoldJudd ✭✭✭
    Peachtree Rex wrote: »
    Banjo1012 wrote: »
    I know they are displayed but what do they mean to me? Does it mean I have a 1.27% chance to get Burnham on a single pull or is it even less than that because that is the chance to get a legendary period. Then there is the 10-pull. I thought I saw that with a 10-pull your odds are 12% to get a legendary but this does not help us with the odds of getting the Best Chance Of crew, merely the odds of getting a legendary at all. Basically my question is, if I do a ten pull, what are the odds of actually getting a Burnham out of it?

    I believe the odds are 1.27% to get a 5* on a single pull. A 10 pull is made of 9 "1.27%" slots and one slot that is 90% odds of a 4* and 10% odds of a 5*.

    Your odds of getting Burnham are some subset of those legendary odds. I don't believe it's published.

    I've read that it's 10 chances and if any of those pop a purple or yellow then that's your guaranteed pull, otherwise when it gets to #10 it generates a gold like you describe.
  • WaldoMagWaldoMag ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    Technically if you fail to get the guaranteed superrare or better in the first 9 pulls it has to be a 1.27% to get a legendary on last. Otherwise, the odds would have to be different on the x10 pull.

    10*1.27% yields a 12.7% chance of getting Legendary in a x10 pull
  • This Sisko1This Sisko1 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you buy a 10x pack you have a 10 percent chance of getting a gold as it's a guarantee of super rare or better. In other packs it shows this. On each slot you have the 1.27 chance of a gold. So that's why the wiki shows a gold every 8.5 pulls. However of the golds, who knows the best chance percent. Maybe 50/50? 5 percent would seem right.
  • (CSF) Jesus Is Lord [••••](CSF) Jesus Is Lord [••••] ✭✭✭✭✭
    Banjo1012 wrote: »
    (CSF) Jesus Is Lord [••••] wrote: »
    Althea Biermont wrote: »
    If you think about it, in a Best Chance pack they could actually lower the chance of the featured crew to be a quarter of what any other specific legendary crew would be and it would still be your "Best Chance" because you can't get it anywhere else. So they could make the odds one-in-a-million and it's still your "best chance" if you want that crew since you can't get them elsewhere. That's a sobering thought.

    Just a reminder, First Officer Burnham is in the regular premium pack loot table so you can get her elsewhere.

    Yes I did get her from a behold. I was like BOO YEAH!

    I got 1 from the first week she was added to the loot table. I was like "YEEEEEEEEAH!!!! oh wait...thats 200,000 honor im gonna have to spend" so i got 2 citations (had some honor saved) and was at 45,000 honor to get my 4th star for her...THEN BAM!!! I get her in another behold, so i was able to ff/fe her in under a week! She is AWESOME! Hope you can get some more stars for her @Banjo1012
  • WaldoMagWaldoMag ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    If you are planning to get x10 premium pack (650 dil. ) , and you want the best chance crew, that is when you do the best chance pack. Do not do it if you are only doing it because you want that crew.

    This brings back memories of the Gorn he went though a lot of these best chance packs to get Gorn Captain FF. It was before they had honor. Of course, this was only a superrare.
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    (CSF) Jesus Is Lord [••••] wrote: »
    Banjo1012 wrote: »
    (CSF) Jesus Is Lord [••••] wrote: »
    Althea Biermont wrote: »
    If you think about it, in a Best Chance pack they could actually lower the chance of the featured crew to be a quarter of what any other specific legendary crew would be and it would still be your "Best Chance" because you can't get it anywhere else. So they could make the odds one-in-a-million and it's still your "best chance" if you want that crew since you can't get them elsewhere. That's a sobering thought.

    Just a reminder, First Officer Burnham is in the regular premium pack loot table so you can get her elsewhere.

    Yes I did get her from a behold. I was like BOO YEAH!

    I got 1 from the first week she was added to the loot table. I was like "YEEEEEEEEAH!!!! oh wait...thats 200,000 honor im gonna have to spend" so i got 2 citations (had some honor saved) and was at 45,000 honor to get my 4th star for her...THEN BAM!!! I get her in another behold, so i was able to ff/fe her in under a week! She is AWESOME! Hope you can get some more stars for her @Banjo1012

    I am very close to 100,000 honor so I’m going to put 2 more stars on her. My new plan is to get my legendaries that are not immortalized to 3 stars. That way if I get one in a behold I can DYC them to 5 stars. I just claimed the 5 basic pulls from the threshold reward (I’m not trying at all in this event). Got A begold from it which was a very pleasant surprise. One of the choices was Detective Data, who I had at 3 stars. Got the DYC and BAYUM. Immortalized. This seems to be a good strategy

  • Jim SteeleJim Steele ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2018
    I got my Burnham after the 8 single 72 dil pulls back when the discovery pack is was released prior to the first mega
    DB: Do Better
Sign In or Register to comment.