[DCC] bebe
Privileged to be Admiral of the Great Fleet
Dilithium Causes Cancer, maxed Starbase level 134
Featuring photonic flee free holodecks and
All you can drink Neelix's Even Better Than Coffee Substitute!
Always expect the unexpected, you'll be surprised at how frequently the unexpected actually occurs.
That also happens on a 45 vs 5 too so yeah. Gauntlet is an exercise in frustration control.
Except for the fact that the results in the original post are not unexpected, just uncommon. I wish everyone was required to take a statistics course.
I would say a 1 in 8000 chance of Surak critting all three times is unexpected.
That is not even taking into account Seven not critting once.
Assuming Seven was 5% too then it would be 1 in 10883 chances of the OP result.
Now if Seven was 25% I would say the OP result was improbable.
Always expect the unexpected, you'll be surprised at how frequently the unexpected actually occurs.
That also happens on a 45 vs 5 too so yeah. Gauntlet is an exercise in frustration control.
Except for the fact that the results in the original post are not unexpected, just uncommon. I wish everyone was required to take a statistics course.
Lol. Did that. Doesn't stop gauntlet RNG being the most frustrating aspect of the game. Expect the unexpected. Like losing against an identical opponent more frequently than not. In fact, just avoid it. It makes statistics look bad.
I take on identical opponents all the time in Gauntlet, and I feel like I win more than half the time. And not infrequently I do a battle against a much stronger opponent expecting to get my butt handed to me, and instead end up somehow winning. RNG goes both ways, people.
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing. ~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
Both were 5% crit rates. It was the first 9f my matches for that "round" so it threw my whole strategy off. I know that statistically it can happen but I feel that I take bad beats like this waaaaay too often.
Most assume that there is randomness involved, but there isn't. It is predetermined how you will perform. For example, you streak WILL be interrupted at a certain point, no matter what you do. You can have the best Gauntlet crew on the planet and spend a ridiculous amount of merits, at a certain point the system will DETERMINE that enough is enough and let you lose against even the most lopsided matchup there is. You can then spend dilithium to extend the streak...
Furthermore, note how your opponents are DETERMINED, there is no randomness in that process as well. Lets say that CMD is the skill that comes up most. Then a good gauntlet crew like Mirror Phlox certainly won't be brought along by everybody, especially if crit rate is 5% (only two skills and not CMD among them). Would someone take him along? Sure, it's still not a bad crew, especially if you do not have an uber gauntlet crew available. But what happens always, when the MED/SEC matchup comes up? You are faced with a wall of Mirror Phlox. This is not because everybody brings him, but because the system DETERMINES without any randomness whatsoever, what setup would make it most difficult for you to succeed.
Also, often you do not bring one non-featured Skill to the gauntlet. If you for example decide not to bring any ENG crew to the CMD featured gauntlet, the ENG skill will pop up more often than one could expect.
Here is something everybody could try: For every fight you do, if one of the characters has 5% crit rate, write down how many crit and how many do not (put zeroes and ones into an excel sheet, one column for you, one for your opponent). Do this for a few weeks/months/years and be amazed what a 5% crit rating means for you, and what it means for your opponent...trust me, it won't be only you, everybody who does that will find out that 5% for opponents is a LOT more that 5% means for you. Of course, you should do this consistently for a while, 200+ datapoints at the least for for each column, better 500+ (it takes not too long to collect enough data if you play gauntlet consistently).
Always expect the unexpected, you'll be surprised at how frequently the unexpected actually occurs.
That also happens on a 45 vs 5 too so yeah. Gauntlet is an exercise in frustration control.
Except for the fact that the results in the original post are not unexpected, just uncommon. I wish everyone was required to take a statistics course.
I am so sick of People using statistics as an excuse for obvious weighted results. Perhaps you do not play gauntlet often? but if you play every day, you will learn, that it is a far cry from uncommon, if anything they are quite common. Defense crits of 5% are more like 25, and 25% more like 45% etc. So spare me the statistics excuse unless you actually supply some.
My fresh Kahless lost to GI Chakotay yesterday. 6 rolls at 25%, not a single crit, all in the bottom 10% of the range and he crit 5/6 with a 45% chance, all of them in the upper 80% of his range. Whatever this game can FOAD
Most assume that there is randomness involved, but there isn't. It is predetermined how you will perform. For example, you streak WILL be interrupted at a certain point, no matter what you do. You can have the best Gauntlet crew on the planet and spend a ridiculous amount of merits, at a certain point the system will DETERMINE that enough is enough and let you lose against even the most lopsided matchup there is. You can then spend dilithium to extend the streak...
Furthermore, note how your opponents are DETERMINED, there is no randomness in that process as well. Lets say that CMD is the skill that comes up most. Then a good gauntlet crew like Mirror Phlox certainly won't be brought along by everybody, especially if crit rate is 5% (only two skills and not CMD among them). Would someone take him along? Sure, it's still not a bad crew, especially if you do not have an uber gauntlet crew available. But what happens always, when the MED/SEC matchup comes up? You are faced with a wall of Mirror Phlox. This is not because everybody brings him, but because the system DETERMINES without any randomness whatsoever, what setup would make it most difficult for you to succeed.
Also, often you do not bring one non-featured Skill to the gauntlet. If you for example decide not to bring any ENG crew to the CMD featured gauntlet, the ENG skill will pop up more often than one could expect.
Here is something everybody could try: For every fight you do, if one of the characters has 5% crit rate, write down how many crit and how many do not (put zeroes and ones into an excel sheet, one column for you, one for your opponent). Do this for a few weeks/months/years and be amazed what a 5% crit rating means for you, and what it means for your opponent...trust me, it won't be only you, everybody who does that will find out that 5% for opponents is a LOT more that 5% means for you. Of course, you should do this consistently for a while, 200+ datapoints at the least for for each column, better 500+ (it takes not too long to collect enough data if you play gauntlet consistently).
I have gone through plenty of gauntlets without having my streak broke. You have to be cautious but it’s not unheard of
Always expect the unexpected, you'll be surprised at how frequently the unexpected actually occurs.
That also happens on a 45 vs 5 too so yeah. Gauntlet is an exercise in frustration control.
Except for the fact that the results in the original post are not unexpected, just uncommon. I wish everyone was required to take a statistics course.
I am so sick of People using statistics as an excuse for obvious weighted results. Perhaps you do not play gauntlet often? but if you play every day, you will learn, that it is a far cry from uncommon, if anything they are quite common. Defense crits of 5% are more like 25, and 25% more like 45% etc. So spare me the statistics excuse unless you actually supply some.
If it is obvious, then the statistics should be very easy to collect.
The onus is on those making a claim to prove it. If you claim it is broken, then show it.
Always expect the unexpected, you'll be surprised at how frequently the unexpected actually occurs.
That also happens on a 45 vs 5 too so yeah. Gauntlet is an exercise in frustration control.
Except for the fact that the results in the original post are not unexpected, just uncommon. I wish everyone was required to take a statistics course.
I am so sick of People using statistics as an excuse for obvious weighted results. Perhaps you do not play gauntlet often? but if you play every day, you will learn, that it is a far cry from uncommon, if anything they are quite common. Defense crits of 5% are more like 25, and 25% more like 45% etc. So spare me the statistics excuse unless you actually supply some.
I don't know what's worse. People who complain about Gauntlet match fixing or me reading threads about Gauntlet match fixing. I'm pretty sure at least one of us is in error.
Anyways you only have about a 46% chance of winning 15/15 gauntlet matches where you're 95% likely to win each match.
More importantly the Gauntlet isn't especially hard to get some decent loot from it. A fixed game that gives you free stuff isn't horrible.
We are all downstream from each other and ourselves, therefore choose to be relaxed and groovy. Consider participating in civil discourse, understanding the Tardigrade, and wandering with the Subspace Eddies.
You only had about an 80% chance of winning the second one, give or take a few percentage points. I've seen bad beats... that's not a bad beat. As for the Caretaker battle — yeah, so an unleveled version beat your fully-leveled version head-to-head. It happens. And I've seen it happen plenty of times the other way around — but I generally don't screenshot Gauntlet matches because I know it all evens out, over the long run.
You are a victim, though. A victim of confirmation bias. And it's self-inflicted.
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing. ~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
Always expect the unexpected, you'll be surprised at how frequently the unexpected actually occurs.
That also happens on a 45 vs 5 too so yeah. Gauntlet is an exercise in frustration control.
Except for the fact that the results in the original post are not unexpected, just uncommon. I wish everyone was required to take a statistics course.
I am so sick of People using statistics as an excuse for obvious weighted results. Perhaps you do not play gauntlet often? but if you play every day, you will learn, that it is a far cry from uncommon, if anything they are quite common. Defense crits of 5% are more like 25, and 25% more like 45% etc. So spare me the statistics excuse unless you actually supply some.
I decided to take up your challange. I have been tracking my crit rolls for the last three and a half days. I wanted to get more data points for the 45% tier before I posted these, but as the thread has been revived anyway I might as well show my findings so far:
Player "25%": 97/375 = 25.9%
Opponent "25%": 70/312 = 22.4%
Player "45%": 7/18 = 38.9%
Opponent "45%": 1/6 = 16.7%
Player "65%": 29/48 = 60.4%
Opponent "65%": 29/45 = 64.4%
Again, I want more data for the 45% tier as I really haven't gotten a gauntlet condusive to those and the 65% tier as well. I'll try to collect more data points for at least a few more days, and I invite others to add their data to these numbers.
It's interesting how the human mind works. I only remember the one time my opponet crit twice on 5%, but would not have noticed the dozens of times they went 0 for 6 on 5% if I had not written them down, and the 5% tier is still slightly lower than expected based on the data I have so far.
Always expect the unexpected, you'll be surprised at how frequently the unexpected actually occurs.
That also happens on a 45 vs 5 too so yeah. Gauntlet is an exercise in frustration control.
Except for the fact that the results in the original post are not unexpected, just uncommon. I wish everyone was required to take a statistics course.
I am so sick of People using statistics as an excuse for obvious weighted results. Perhaps you do not play gauntlet often? but if you play every day, you will learn, that it is a far cry from uncommon, if anything they are quite common. Defense crits of 5% are more like 25, and 25% more like 45% etc. So spare me the statistics excuse unless you actually supply some.
I decided to take up your challange. I have been tracking my crit rolls for the last three and a half days. I wanted to get more data points for the 45% tier before I posted these, but as the thread has been revived anyway I might as well show my findings so far:
Player "25%": 97/375 = 25.9%
Opponent "25%": 70/312 = 22.4%
Player "45%": 7/18 = 38.9%
Opponent "45%": 1/6 = 16.7%
Player "65%": 29/48 = 60.4%
Opponent "65%": 29/45 = 64.4%
Again, I want more data for the 45% tier as I really haven't gotten a gauntlet condusive to those and the 65% tier as well. I'll try to collect more data points for at least a few more days, and I invite others to add their data to these numbers.
It's interesting how the human mind works. I only remember the one time my opponet crit twice on 5%, but would not have noticed the dozens of times they went 0 for 6 on 5% if I had not written them down, and the 5% tier is still slightly lower than expected based on the data I have so far.
I've also tracked crits in the past about 500-750 and they lined up with expected values. That being said, there's also ranges to consider and I've seen the theory that the 3rd fight (before gauntlet chest) is "unfair" too. There's a lot more testing to be done of several variables, but I agree after running the numbers myself that crits as a whole line up with what's on the box.
Here is something everybody could try: For every fight you do, if one of the characters has 5% crit rate, write down how many crit and how many do not (put zeroes and ones into an excel sheet, one column for you, one for your opponent). Do this for a few weeks/months/years and be amazed what a 5% crit rating means for you, and what it means for your opponent...trust me, it won't be only you, everybody who does that will find out that 5% for opponents is a LOT more that 5% means for you. Of course, you should do this consistently for a while, 200+ datapoints at the least for for each column, better 500+ (it takes not too long to collect enough data if you play gauntlet consistently).
I did that over the course of a year ..
rough results showed:
AI:
5% => Actual crit rate =10%
25% => Actual crit rate = 40%
45% => Actual crit rate = 40%
Me:
5% => Actual crit rate = 6%
25% => Actual crit rate = 15%
45% => Actual crit rate = 35%
... or something like that, if memory serves me correctly ..
after I confirmed to myself things were definitely skewed in AI's favour, I adjusted my play style ... *shrug* ...
RogaDanar
✭✭✭
Comments
Yes it does...when using DBRNG
Perfectly normal
Working as intended
Privileged to be Admiral of the Great Fleet
Dilithium Causes Cancer, maxed Starbase level 134
Featuring photonic flee free holodecks and
All you can drink Neelix's Even Better Than Coffee Substitute!
Always expect the unexpected, you'll be surprised at how frequently the unexpected actually occurs.
That also happens on a 45 vs 5 too so yeah. Gauntlet is an exercise in frustration control.
Check out our website to find out more:
https://wiki.tenforwardloungers.com/
Except for the fact that the results in the original post are not unexpected, just uncommon. I wish everyone was required to take a statistics course.
I would say a 1 in 8000 chance of Surak critting all three times is unexpected.
That is not even taking into account Seven not critting once.
Assuming Seven was 5% too then it would be 1 in 10883 chances of the OP result.
Now if Seven was 25% I would say the OP result was improbable.
Lol. Did that. Doesn't stop gauntlet RNG being the most frustrating aspect of the game. Expect the unexpected. Like losing against an identical opponent more frequently than not. In fact, just avoid it. It makes statistics look bad.
Check out our website to find out more:
https://wiki.tenforwardloungers.com/
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing.
~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
Most assume that there is randomness involved, but there isn't. It is predetermined how you will perform. For example, you streak WILL be interrupted at a certain point, no matter what you do. You can have the best Gauntlet crew on the planet and spend a ridiculous amount of merits, at a certain point the system will DETERMINE that enough is enough and let you lose against even the most lopsided matchup there is. You can then spend dilithium to extend the streak...
Furthermore, note how your opponents are DETERMINED, there is no randomness in that process as well. Lets say that CMD is the skill that comes up most. Then a good gauntlet crew like Mirror Phlox certainly won't be brought along by everybody, especially if crit rate is 5% (only two skills and not CMD among them). Would someone take him along? Sure, it's still not a bad crew, especially if you do not have an uber gauntlet crew available. But what happens always, when the MED/SEC matchup comes up? You are faced with a wall of Mirror Phlox. This is not because everybody brings him, but because the system DETERMINES without any randomness whatsoever, what setup would make it most difficult for you to succeed.
Also, often you do not bring one non-featured Skill to the gauntlet. If you for example decide not to bring any ENG crew to the CMD featured gauntlet, the ENG skill will pop up more often than one could expect.
Here is something everybody could try: For every fight you do, if one of the characters has 5% crit rate, write down how many crit and how many do not (put zeroes and ones into an excel sheet, one column for you, one for your opponent). Do this for a few weeks/months/years and be amazed what a 5% crit rating means for you, and what it means for your opponent...trust me, it won't be only you, everybody who does that will find out that 5% for opponents is a LOT more that 5% means for you. Of course, you should do this consistently for a while, 200+ datapoints at the least for for each column, better 500+ (it takes not too long to collect enough data if you play gauntlet consistently).
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing.
~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
So there is going to be like 10 similar cases each day, I for one am happy they don't all post about them on the forums.
I am so sick of People using statistics as an excuse for obvious weighted results. Perhaps you do not play gauntlet often? but if you play every day, you will learn, that it is a far cry from uncommon, if anything they are quite common. Defense crits of 5% are more like 25, and 25% more like 45% etc. So spare me the statistics excuse unless you actually supply some.
I have gone through plenty of gauntlets without having my streak broke. You have to be cautious but it’s not unheard of
It's a RNG (random number generator). It is unlikely but you can have 3 crits in a row with 5%. It happens and it did happen.
If it is obvious, then the statistics should be very easy to collect.
The onus is on those making a claim to prove it. If you claim it is broken, then show it.
I don't know what's worse. People who complain about Gauntlet match fixing or me reading threads about Gauntlet match fixing. I'm pretty sure at least one of us is in error.
Anyways you only have about a 46% chance of winning 15/15 gauntlet matches where you're 95% likely to win each match.
More importantly the Gauntlet isn't especially hard to get some decent loot from it. A fixed game that gives you free stuff isn't horrible.
For those interested, here are some threads with gauntlet data to consider:
Gauntlet Data Set: Mirror Matches
Proof that the Gauntlet is RIGGED!
And from the old forums:
Gauntlet bias data results
Am I the only one who thinks the Gauntlet is working just fine?
Consider participating in civil discourse, understanding the Tardigrade, and wandering with the Subspace Eddies.
yup, still working as intended
You only had about an 80% chance of winning the second one, give or take a few percentage points. I've seen bad beats... that's not a bad beat. As for the Caretaker battle — yeah, so an unleveled version beat your fully-leveled version head-to-head. It happens. And I've seen it happen plenty of times the other way around — but I generally don't screenshot Gauntlet matches because I know it all evens out, over the long run.
You are a victim, though. A victim of confirmation bias. And it's self-inflicted.
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing.
~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
I decided to take up your challange. I have been tracking my crit rolls for the last three and a half days. I wanted to get more data points for the 45% tier before I posted these, but as the thread has been revived anyway I might as well show my findings so far:
Player "5%": 15 crits /311 rolls = 4.8%
Opponent "5%": 9/326 = 2.8%
Player "25%": 97/375 = 25.9%
Opponent "25%": 70/312 = 22.4%
Player "45%": 7/18 = 38.9%
Opponent "45%": 1/6 = 16.7%
Player "65%": 29/48 = 60.4%
Opponent "65%": 29/45 = 64.4%
Again, I want more data for the 45% tier as I really haven't gotten a gauntlet condusive to those and the 65% tier as well. I'll try to collect more data points for at least a few more days, and I invite others to add their data to these numbers.
It's interesting how the human mind works. I only remember the one time my opponet crit twice on 5%, but would not have noticed the dozens of times they went 0 for 6 on 5% if I had not written them down, and the 5% tier is still slightly lower than expected based on the data I have so far.
I've also tracked crits in the past about 500-750 and they lined up with expected values. That being said, there's also ranges to consider and I've seen the theory that the 3rd fight (before gauntlet chest) is "unfair" too. There's a lot more testing to be done of several variables, but I agree after running the numbers myself that crits as a whole line up with what's on the box.
I did that over the course of a year ..
rough results showed:
AI:
5% => Actual crit rate =10%
25% => Actual crit rate = 40%
45% => Actual crit rate = 40%
Me:
5% => Actual crit rate = 6%
25% => Actual crit rate = 15%
45% => Actual crit rate = 35%
... or something like that, if memory serves me correctly ..
after I confirmed to myself things were definitely skewed in AI's favour, I adjusted my play style ... *shrug* ...
JFC clear your twitter notifications. It's making my eyes twitch.
PM for details.
So long and thanks for all the fish.