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Skirmish chroniton reward drop observation
WaldoMag
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I just finished 40 skirmishes. I only bought one extra reward with dil.
I received out of the 161 reward chances 11 chroniton rewards.
6 were 75 (I doubt that these were 75 I just only noticed the 76 once)
1 was 76
2 were 150
2 were 300
11 out of 161 or 6.8%
Edit1:
Did 5 skirmishes no extras brought.
Started off with 1 Chron reward out of 18 so decided to stop at 5 skirmishes.
Out of 20 got 2 Chron reward. Totally inline as my original would have been if I threw out the first 0 out of 41.
So 20 rewards and 2 Chron rewards.
1 was 76
1 was 300.
Edit2:
Ran 3 skirmishes bought 8 extra rewards. For a total of 20 chances.
So 20 rewards and I got 4 Chron rewards. (Finally aplus side result)
All 4 were 76
I am keeping my data sets short at 20 now. I believe this will keep me at the mean.
I also think I will be less likely to have a 0 for 41 result this way. No guarantees.
E3: 4 skirmishes bought 4 I got 3 Chron rewards (again plus side am definitely approaching 11%) so 20 rewards
2 were 76
1 was 150
E4: 5 skirmishes no extra so 20 rewards got 1 Chron reward (my small data sets are now at 12.5%)
1 was 150
E5: 5 skirmishes no extra so 20 rewards got 2 Chron rewards. (Now 12% on the small data sets)
2 were 76
E6: 4S 4X 2C rewards. 120 to 14 11.66% as I thought small sets of data are converging to the mean quickly. All it means is that I do not have long streaks of bad or good data.
2 were 76
I received out of the 161 reward chances 11 chroniton rewards.
6 were 75 (I doubt that these were 75 I just only noticed the 76 once)
1 was 76
2 were 150
2 were 300
11 out of 161 or 6.8%
Edit1:
Did 5 skirmishes no extras brought.
Started off with 1 Chron reward out of 18 so decided to stop at 5 skirmishes.
Out of 20 got 2 Chron reward. Totally inline as my original would have been if I threw out the first 0 out of 41.
So 20 rewards and 2 Chron rewards.
1 was 76
1 was 300.
Edit2:
Ran 3 skirmishes bought 8 extra rewards. For a total of 20 chances.
So 20 rewards and I got 4 Chron rewards. (Finally aplus side result)
All 4 were 76
I am keeping my data sets short at 20 now. I believe this will keep me at the mean.
I also think I will be less likely to have a 0 for 41 result this way. No guarantees.
E3: 4 skirmishes bought 4 I got 3 Chron rewards (again plus side am definitely approaching 11%) so 20 rewards
2 were 76
1 was 150
E4: 5 skirmishes no extra so 20 rewards got 1 Chron reward (my small data sets are now at 12.5%)
1 was 150
E5: 5 skirmishes no extra so 20 rewards got 2 Chron rewards. (Now 12% on the small data sets)
2 were 76
E6: 4S 4X 2C rewards. 120 to 14 11.66% as I thought small sets of data are converging to the mean quickly. All it means is that I do not have long streaks of bad or good data.
2 were 76
0
Comments
You would only need to have had 1 additional chroniton drop (12 out of 161 observations) for the top end of the MOE to be spot on 11.5%.
Tour of duty: January 2016 to present.
Shut up Wesley.
I wish it were merits, DB. Can we get merits instead of credits?
Intel drops are an even worse case of "losing"... I don't really mind credits TBH
If the Intel Drop was higher I wouldn't mind Intel. When I get 270 Intel I am content but get 30 or 60 Intel is just depressing.
When 3 chrons can become 40 intel, 75 chron drops are worth 1000 Intel. It's hard to get excited about the straight Intel drops.
But it is more likely from my result that the drop rate is lower than 11%
That's not how probability works. You can only claim if your data supports the hypothesis or rejects it. If you're within the confidence interval then you're in it. All you can do is collect more data to narrow the interval.
Well then we are not in it as you said.
But the point of all this was to have other people add there drop rates. For more data.
And I love when you need one more to be in the interval how you are willing to add one more. You are either in it with the given data or you are out of it. You are willing to add that it was close so you are in it.
More likely because this is not a real RNG, data like my observation is a common occurrence but still likely to happen.
By the way my first 41 chances I got zilch Chron. Reward. So 11 out of 120 is much closer to actual reported rate. But I did have 41 that got none.
I had 48k Intel at start I probably had more than 161 attempts, but I only kept track of Chron.
I get so much chrons that if used on ship battles with supply kit I get roughly 85-95% of my intel back.... The feedback loop is real. lol
Currently at 660k points, so thats less than 110 runs meaning less than 440 drops and ive got one time portal pull... wayy better than the 0,13% listed :DD
(also as a side effect I've earned 1.8 million credits along the way...)
Again, that's not how statistics work. My statement about adding in one more observation is to point out how volatile the MOEs are at such a low Test % level, given n=161 as your sample. Your data are not proving anything, and as was mentioned elsewhere in the thread, a significantly larger set of observations would be necessary to make any sort of conclusion.
Beyond even that...the MOEs are calculated at a 95% confidence level. What that means is that if the same "test" i.e. a sample of drops was conducted 100 times, 95 of those times, the sample would have a proportion of chron drops within the MOE. But 5% of the time, it would be higher or lower. That's just the way statistics and sampling works. Unless you are able to view the entire population of a dataset (which is an incredibly rare event), you have to understand that sample estimates are estimates, and thus are subject to margins of error and an element of unpredictability.
Tour of duty: January 2016 to present.
Shut up Wesley.
Results:
Honor: 29 drops (22 at 76, 5 at 159, and 2 at 300)
Chronitons: 23 drops (13 at 76 and 10 at 150)
Man you must have been lucky with your pulls. I probably lost a few thousand chronitons while ranking about 200. Still not bad considering what I have gotten but haven’t gained for sure.
I popped the 10 dil reward once & got 300 VP, paused to reflect on the pros & cons of using my dilithium for VP, then continued playing. Voyage extensions still have more value for my dilithium. 🖖🏻
Check out our website to find out more:
https://wiki.tenforwardloungers.com/
For instance, Risa seems to be dropping chrons at about 500% over Gralik.
Which planet increases honor drops
Check out our website to find out more:
https://wiki.tenforwardloungers.com/
Same here. The chrons have barely dropped in the second stage and I’m ranked in top 40. First stage of the event the chrons were dropping all over the place
So 192 total reward drops.
22 Intel 30
22 Intel 60
03 Intel 240
37 Credits 1500
15 Credits 3000
02 Credits 6000
14 Chronitons 76
05 Chronitons 150
28 Honor 76
07 Honor 150
02 Honor 300
30 VP 300
05 VP 600
The only observation I noticed. When I started Intel did not drop. When Intel started dropping it was the 60 that dropped. Got 8 of them before a 30 dropped.
I have had zero portal pulls drop.
i have run over 600 skirmish missions (i'm ranked in the 400s).
That's at least 480 chances to get a portal pull.
at the advertised rate, i should have had at least 5 by now.