Skirmish chroniton reward drop observation

WaldoMag

I just finished 40 skirmishes. I only bought one extra reward with dil.

I received out of the 161 reward chances 11 chroniton rewards.
6 were 75 (I doubt that these were 75 I just only noticed the 76 once)
1 was 76
2 were 150
2 were 300

11 out of 161 or 6.8%


Edit1:
Did 5 skirmishes no extras brought.
Started off with 1 Chron reward out of 18 so decided to stop at 5 skirmishes.
Out of 20 got 2 Chron reward. Totally inline as my original would have been if I threw out the first 0 out of 41.

So 20 rewards and 2 Chron rewards.
1 was 76
1 was 300.

Edit2:
Ran 3 skirmishes bought 8 extra rewards. For a total of 20 chances.

So 20 rewards and I got 4 Chron rewards. (Finally aplus side result)
All 4 were 76

I am keeping my data sets short at 20 now. I believe this will keep me at the mean.
I also think I will be less likely to have a 0 for 41 result this way. No guarantees.

E3: 4 skirmishes bought 4 I got 3 Chron rewards (again plus side am definitely approaching 11%) so 20 rewards
2 were 76
1 was 150

E4: 5 skirmishes no extra so 20 rewards got 1 Chron reward (my small data sets are now at 12.5%)
1 was 150

E5: 5 skirmishes no extra so 20 rewards got 2 Chron rewards. (Now 12% on the small data sets)
2 were 76

E6: 4S 4X 2C rewards. 120 to 14 11.66% as I thought small sets of data are converging to the mean quickly. All it means is that I do not have long streaks of bad or good data.
2 were 76

[SSR] The Iron Cow

Accounting for the 3.9% margin of error with your sample, at a 95% CI your results would land between 2.9% and 10.7% so it's actually pretty close to the estimated drop rate.

You would only need to have had 1 additional chroniton drop (12 out of 161 observations) for the top end of the MOE to be spot on 11.5%.

GhostStalker

For all intents and purposes, getting credits is the equivalent of "losing."

I wish it were merits, DB. Can we get merits instead of credits?

Yateball

GhostStalker wrote: »

For all intents and purposes, getting credits is the equivalent of "losing."

I wish it were merits, DB. Can we get merits instead of credits?

Intel drops are an even worse case of "losing"... I don't really mind credits TBH

Althea Biermont

I would love to see merits added to the pool

Nero84

Yateball wrote: »

GhostStalker wrote: »

For all intents and purposes, getting credits is the equivalent of "losing."

I wish it were merits, DB. Can we get merits instead of credits?

Intel drops are an even worse case of "losing"... I don't really mind credits TBH

If the Intel Drop was higher I wouldn't mind Intel. When I get 270 Intel I am content but get 30 or 60 Intel is just depressing.

Automaton_2000

I haven't had a chron drop in over 100 battles. I can safely conclude that they do not, in fact, drop at all.

AviTrek

Nero84 wrote: »

Yateball wrote: »

GhostStalker wrote: »

For all intents and purposes, getting credits is the equivalent of "losing."

I wish it were merits, DB. Can we get merits instead of credits?

Intel drops are an even worse case of "losing"... I don't really mind credits TBH

If the Intel Drop was higher I wouldn't mind Intel. When I get 270 Intel I am content but get 30 or 60 Intel is just depressing.

When 3 chrons can become 40 intel, 75 chron drops are worth 1000 Intel. It's hard to get excited about the straight Intel drops.

WaldoMag

[SSR] The Iron Cow wrote: »

Accounting for the 3.9% margin of error with your sample, at a 95% CI your results would land between 2.9% and 10.7% so it's actually pretty close to the estimated drop rate.

You would only need to have had 1 additional chroniton drop (12 out of 161 observations) for the top end of the MOE to be spot on 11.5%.

But it is more likely from my result that the drop rate is lower than 11%

AviTrek

WaldoMag wrote: »

[SSR] The Iron Cow wrote: »

Accounting for the 3.9% margin of error with your sample, at a 95% CI your results would land between 2.9% and 10.7% so it's actually pretty close to the estimated drop rate.

You would only need to have had 1 additional chroniton drop (12 out of 161 observations) for the top end of the MOE to be spot on 11.5%.

But it is more likely from my result that the drop rate is lower than 11%

That's not how probability works. You can only claim if your data supports the hypothesis or rejects it. If you're within the confidence interval then you're in it. All you can do is collect more data to narrow the interval.

WaldoMag

AviTrek wrote: »

WaldoMag wrote: »

[SSR] The Iron Cow wrote: »

Accounting for the 3.9% margin of error with your sample, at a 95% CI your results would land between 2.9% and 10.7% so it's actually pretty close to the estimated drop rate.

You would only need to have had 1 additional chroniton drop (12 out of 161 observations) for the top end of the MOE to be spot on 11.5%.

But it is more likely from my result that the drop rate is lower than 11%

That's not how probability works. You can only claim if your data supports the hypothesis or rejects it. If you're within the confidence interval then you're in it. All you can do is collect more data to narrow the interval.

Well then we are not in it as you said.

But the point of all this was to have other people add there drop rates. For more data.

And I love when you need one more to be in the interval how you are willing to add one more. You are either in it with the given data or you are out of it. You are willing to add that it was close so you are in it.

More likely because this is not a real RNG, data like my observation is a common occurrence but still likely to happen.

By the way my first 41 chances I got zilch Chron. Reward. So 11 out of 120 is much closer to actual reported rate. But I did have 41 that got none.

I had 48k Intel at start I probably had more than 161 attempts, but I only kept track of Chron.

Commander Sinclair

Credit drop rate for me is about 65%+. Kind of ridiculous.

Captain Lost

I'd be happy to get credits, if it were a decent amount. I'm experiencing a credit crunch partly due to all the bonus chrons I've been getting in this event, so I could certainly use more. 750 credits isn't much help, though. I wish they would put a zero behind all of these credit drops.

V.

After a good data set I can now say I'm getting honor 3x more often than chronitons. Around 5% chronitons and 15% honor. Both by far most often at 76.

kapu

well all i can say my event has become self sufficient....

I get so much chrons that if used on ship battles with supply kit I get roughly 85-95% of my intel back.... The feedback loop is real. lol
Currently at 660k points, so thats less than 110 runs meaning less than 440 drops and ive got one time portal pull... wayy better than the 0,13% listed :DD

(also as a side effect I've earned 1.8 million credits along the way...)

[SSR] The Iron Cow

WaldoMag wrote: »

Well then we are not in it as you said.

But the point of all this was to have other people add there drop rates. For more data.

And I love when you need one more to be in the interval how you are willing to add one more. You are either in it with the given data or you are out of it. You are willing to add that it was close so you are in it.

More likely because this is not a real RNG, data like my observation is a common occurrence but still likely to happen.

By the way my first 41 chances I got zilch Chron. Reward. So 11 out of 120 is much closer to actual reported rate. But I did have 41 that got none.

I had 48k Intel at start I probably had more than 161 attempts, but I only kept track of Chron.

Again, that's not how statistics work. My statement about adding in one more observation is to point out how volatile the MOEs are at such a low Test % level, given n=161 as your sample. Your data are not proving anything, and as was mentioned elsewhere in the thread, a significantly larger set of observations would be necessary to make any sort of conclusion.

Beyond even that...the MOEs are calculated at a 95% confidence level. What that means is that if the same "test" i.e. a sample of drops was conducted 100 times, 95 of those times, the sample would have a proportion of chron drops within the MOE. But 5% of the time, it would be higher or lower. That's just the way statistics and sampling works. Unless you are able to view the entire population of a dataset (which is an incredibly rare event), you have to understand that sample estimates are estimates, and thus are subject to margins of error and an element of unpredictability.

WaldoMag

You are also assuming I have the complete data set in sequence sent to me one at a time. Which I doubt. That is part of pseudorandom. I have no doubt that I am given results that can actually be duplicates of the same location in the data set. I can also have bad timing to account for why 11% chance gave me 0 drops out of 41. My results are definitely tending towards this 11% if I remove the 0 for 41. Hopefully I will get a 8 for 41 to put me back on track with all my data.

Irial

I am appreciative of how generous this Event is as, the overall amount of useful rewards I can individually acquire through the course of a 4 day Skirmish Event far exceeds what is possible when any of the other currently existing Event types are occurring.

DavideBooks

I do not know how many rounds I've done. I didn't keep track of that. I believe I've had mostly credit drops, though at the start I was getting a lot of victory points dropping. I kept track of chronitons and honor only. The last event I felt like I was getting no chroniton drops at all. I had a dozen the whole time. I set out to prove it wrong this time. Instead, I have recieved a lot of them. Until near the end, the chronitons fo honor drop rates were almost the same. Then honor was more. I wonder if ranking makes a difference to drop rates?

Results:
Honor: 29 drops (22 at 76, 5 at 159, and 2 at 300)
Chronitons: 23 drops (13 at 76 and 10 at 150)

Banjo1012

43rd place, 30,000 honor so far. 5 million credits. +3,000 chrons. Skirmish events are awesome!!!

CSR _Waylander

Im most pleased that i have 3k holo emitters saved up

Nero84

Banjo1012 wrote: »

43rd place, 30,000 honor so far. 5 million credits. +3,000 chrons. Skirmish events are awesome!!!

Man you must have been lucky with your pulls. I probably lost a few thousand chronitons while ranking about 200. Still not bad considering what I have gotten but haven’t gained for sure.

Banjo1012

I failed to mention I’ve also spent 10,000 dilithium. Get the 10 dil reward every time. Also most of those credits are from running missions to gain intel

Captain May I.

Started with 2000 Crons, and with Supply kits and non-extended Voyages I made it over 1 million VP before my Crons finally dried up. Phase II hasn’t dropped a single Cron for me, tons of Honor though.

~peregrine~

Banjo1012 wrote: »

I failed to mention I’ve also spent 10,000 dilithium. Get the 10 dil reward every time. Also most of those credits are from running missions to gain intel

I popped the 10 dil reward once & got 300 VP, paused to reflect on the pros & cons of using my dilithium for VP, then continued playing. Voyage extensions still have more value for my dilithium. 🖖🏻

[10F] Belle'Anna

Over 200,000 VP I received 19 drops of honor equalling 1814 honor, which is well within the range of 14.11% advertised.

Commander Sinclair

Just an observation, and it could be completely random, but I noticed that playing out the Skirmishes around certain planets nets more Chron loot drops than others.

For instance, Risa seems to be dropping chrons at about 500% over Gralik.

Seven of One

Commander Sinclair wrote: »

Just an observation, and it could be completely random, but I noticed that playing out the Skirmishes around certain planets nets more Chron loot drops than others.

For instance, Risa seems to be dropping chrons at about 500% over Gralik.

Which planet increases honor drops

S14 Bri

Captain May I. wrote: »

Started with 2000 Crons, and with Supply kits and non-extended Voyages I made it over 1 million VP before my Crons finally dried up. Phase II hasn’t dropped a single Cron for me, tons of Honor though.

Same here. The chrons have barely dropped in the second stage and I’m ranked in top 40. First stage of the event the chrons were dropping all over the place

WaldoMag

Did a long data set again. 48 skirmishes no extra purchased.
So 192 total reward drops.

22 Intel 30
22 Intel 60
03 Intel 240
37 Credits 1500
15 Credits 3000
02 Credits 6000
14 Chronitons 76
05 Chronitons 150
28 Honor 76
07 Honor 150
02 Honor 300
30 VP 300
05 VP 600

The only observation I noticed. When I started Intel did not drop. When Intel started dropping it was the 60 that dropped. Got 8 of them before a 30 dropped.

[FF] Frylock IBOL17

i don't see any "portal pulls" here.
I have had zero portal pulls drop.
i have run over 600 skirmish missions (i'm ranked in the 400s).
That's at least 480 chances to get a portal pull.
at the advertised rate, i should have had at least 5 by now.