The odds on a single pull is 1.27% chance at a legendary.
For x10 pull that means 12.7%. But that does not mean that all three legendaries add up to a 12.7% chance. That is for all legendaries. All we know is the three featured legendaries have a better chance of dropping than the other legendaries.
The odds on a single pull is 1.27% chance at a legendary.
For x10 pull that means 12.7%. But that does not mean that all three legendaries add up to a 12.7% chance. That is for all legendaries. All we know is the three featured legendaries have a better chance of dropping than the other legendaries.
The translation from a 1.27% single pull to the 10x pull isn't quite that simple. There is the guarantee feature for the 10th card, so that distorts some of the 10x math. The lack of visibility over how the guarantee works and the fact the guarantee can be a 4* or 5* if the first 9 fail but we don't know the probability of each, means we really won't ever know the exact 10x odds.
Anecdotally, I've pulled a lot of these and while I don't track every pull, I will say that the 1 featured legendary for every 9-10 packs seems about right to be. And that I believe all three of the featured ones have an equal chance to appear (except of course when the new card isn't added to the loot table).
The odds on a single pull is 1.27% chance at a legendary.
For x10 pull that means 12.7%. But that does not mean that all three legendaries add up to a 12.7% chance. That is for all legendaries. All we know is the three featured legendaries have a better chance of dropping than the other legendaries.
The translation from a 1.27% single pull to the 10x pull isn't quite that simple. There is the guarantee feature for the 10th card, so that distorts some of the 10x math. The lack of visibility over how the guarantee works and the fact the guarantee can be a 4* or 5* if the first 9 fail but we don't know the probability of each, means we really won't ever know the exact 10x odds.
Anecdotally, I've pulled a lot of these and while I don't track every pull, I will say that the 1 featured legendary for every 9-10 packs seems about right to be. And that I believe all three of the featured ones have an equal chance to appear (except of course when the new card isn't added to the loot table).
Even without the guaranteed slot it's slightly less than 12.7% for a 10-pull. What people are asking is, "what are the chances I'll get at least one legendary". For a 10 pull, that's equal to the probability of getting one on pull 1 OR the probability on pull 2 OR on pull3 OR ...
Math-wise, and assuming independence, that's:
P(A or = P(A) + P(B) - P(A)*P(B)
(run iteratively 10 times feeding the result of each into the new A)
[Edit: OK, emoji's have now officially killed math, because apparently one cannot type "B nospace )" without converting to an emoji.]
That works out to:
after 2 pulls: 2.5%
after 3 pulls: 3.8%
after 4 pulls: 5.0%
after 5 pulls: 6.2%
after 6 pulls: 7.4%
after 7 pulls: 8.6%
after 8 pulls: 9.7%
after 9 pulls: 10.9%
after 10 pulls: 12.0%
(For low probabilities, it's close to just adding them up but not identical. If that seems wonky, consider the math if the base rate was 25% rather than 1.27% ... simply multiplying by 10 would yield a probability of 250% which doesn't make any sense...)
keeping on going, and switching from pulls to packs, the OR'ing gets more problematic:
after 2 packs: 22.6%
after 3 packs: 31.8%
after 4 packs: 40.0%
after 5 packs: 47.2%
after 6 packs: 53.6%
after 7 packs: 59.1%
after 8 packs: 64.0%
after 9 packs: 68.3%
after 10 packs: 72.1%
after 11 packs: 75.5%
after 12 packs: 78.4%
after 13 packs: 81.0%
after 14 packs: 83.2%
after 15 packs: 85.3%
after 16 packs: 87.0%
after 17 packs: 88.6%
You can see how the chances plateau off, and never hit 100%, which is why some folks above can have horrible runs of bad luck. (Even 23 packs only gets you to 95%). If you're willing to spend for 17 packs, you're probably better off going for the bazonga 11,000 dil guaranteed legendary version instead (which STILL doesn't guarantee you the legendary you want). Similarly, if you're pulling Wednesday packs just to get the event legendary, if you're ready to buy more than 8 packs, and don't care about the SR, just go ahead and plunk down the $50 to buy him/her/it outright. 8 packs only gets you to 64% for 5200 dilithium, which is close to $50 depending on your VIP level.
To Paladin's point, it may be a little better than that depending on how the special wiring works on crew packs.
The math is pretty cleverly insidious. I pulled 5 packs today (against my better judgment), which got me in the 50/50 range, and my coin flip happened to come up a winner. To me that's (unfortunately) JUST ENOUGH a frequent enough positive outcome to tempt me to occasionally buy Tuesday packs when I know, know, know, I really shouldn't.
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The translation from a 1.27% single pull to the 10x pull isn't quite that simple. There is the guarantee feature for the 10th card, so that distorts some of the 10x math. The lack of visibility over how the guarantee works and the fact the guarantee can be a 4* or 5* if the first 9 fail but we don't know the probability of each, means we really won't ever know the exact 10x odds.
Anecdotally, I've pulled a lot of these and while I don't track every pull, I will say that the 1 featured legendary for every 9-10 packs seems about right to be. And that I believe all three of the featured ones have an equal chance to appear (except of course when the new card isn't added to the loot table).
Even without the guaranteed slot it's slightly less than 12.7% for a 10-pull. What people are asking is, "what are the chances I'll get at least one legendary". For a 10 pull, that's equal to the probability of getting one on pull 1 OR the probability on pull 2 OR on pull3 OR ...
Math-wise, and assuming independence, that's:
P(A or
(run iteratively 10 times feeding the result of each into the new A)
[Edit: OK, emoji's have now officially killed math, because apparently one cannot type "B nospace )" without converting to an emoji.]
That works out to:
after 2 pulls: 2.5%
after 3 pulls: 3.8%
after 4 pulls: 5.0%
after 5 pulls: 6.2%
after 6 pulls: 7.4%
after 7 pulls: 8.6%
after 8 pulls: 9.7%
after 9 pulls: 10.9%
after 10 pulls: 12.0%
(For low probabilities, it's close to just adding them up but not identical. If that seems wonky, consider the math if the base rate was 25% rather than 1.27% ... simply multiplying by 10 would yield a probability of 250% which doesn't make any sense...)
keeping on going, and switching from pulls to packs, the OR'ing gets more problematic:
after 2 packs: 22.6%
after 3 packs: 31.8%
after 4 packs: 40.0%
after 5 packs: 47.2%
after 6 packs: 53.6%
after 7 packs: 59.1%
after 8 packs: 64.0%
after 9 packs: 68.3%
after 10 packs: 72.1%
after 11 packs: 75.5%
after 12 packs: 78.4%
after 13 packs: 81.0%
after 14 packs: 83.2%
after 15 packs: 85.3%
after 16 packs: 87.0%
after 17 packs: 88.6%
You can see how the chances plateau off, and never hit 100%, which is why some folks above can have horrible runs of bad luck. (Even 23 packs only gets you to 95%). If you're willing to spend for 17 packs, you're probably better off going for the bazonga 11,000 dil guaranteed legendary version instead (which STILL doesn't guarantee you the legendary you want). Similarly, if you're pulling Wednesday packs just to get the event legendary, if you're ready to buy more than 8 packs, and don't care about the SR, just go ahead and plunk down the $50 to buy him/her/it outright. 8 packs only gets you to 64% for 5200 dilithium, which is close to $50 depending on your VIP level.
To Paladin's point, it may be a little better than that depending on how the special wiring works on crew packs.
The math is pretty cleverly insidious. I pulled 5 packs today (against my better judgment), which got me in the 50/50 range, and my coin flip happened to come up a winner. To me that's (unfortunately) JUST ENOUGH a frequent enough positive outcome to tempt me to occasionally buy Tuesday packs when I know, know, know, I really shouldn't.