The Livery pack is BS. Odds are rigged. I've done like 15 of them, keras dropped 9 times, doctor dropped 3 times, opaka dropped twice, ONE SEVEN. RIGGED.
Uh, RNG. It happens. Ask about the Gary Seven thing. I forgot who it was. But, I guarantee he remembers......
I'm not talking about the odds of getting a 5*. The odds are stated, 10% chance in the 10x pull. If I do 15 pulls, it is resonable that I wouldn't pull a 5*.
However, the way the packs are presented, all 4* crew featured have equal chance, ie. If there are 3 of them, 90/3 or 30% for each crew. You don't do 15 pulls and get only 1 that is SUPPOSED TO BE 30% odds.
Please don't hate me, but I did 8 pulls. Four were Author Doctor and four were Indignant Seven. I didn't see that Romulan dude at all. I didn't want him, so that is clearly good, but the RNG is certainly fickle. It seems rigged on many occasions in my experience. I went through a spell (3 weeks) of horrible shuttle boost RNG. It was way too rare to get time boosts. Nine packs seems excessive to not get something with a 30% chance to drop. I definitely empathize with your plight.
Y'all keep saying "30% chance to drop". As if that means Seven has a 30% chance. Each 4* has a 10.13% chance, according to the info button. Y'all are adding {apparently} all three, and assigning it to one Crew member.....
There is a guarantee that SR or Legendary will drop in each x10 pull. If it's 90/10 SR-to-Legendary, and there's three SR's, then 30% sounds right. There would have to be other math that I don't understand to behave significantly differently.
The Livery pack is BS. Odds are rigged. I've done like 15 of them, keras dropped 9 times, doctor dropped 3 times, opaka dropped twice, ONE SEVEN. RIGGED.
Uh, RNG. It happens. Ask about the Gary Seven thing. I forgot who it was. But, I guarantee he remembers......
I'm not talking about the odds of getting a 5*. The odds are stated, 10% chance in the 10x pull. If I do 15 pulls, it is resonable that I wouldn't pull a 5*.
However, the way the packs are presented, all 4* crew featured have equal chance, ie. If there are 3 of them, 90/3 or 30% for each crew. You don't do 15 pulls and get only 1 that is SUPPOSED TO BE 30% odds.
Please don't hate me, but I did 8 pulls. Four were Author Doctor and four were Indignant Seven. I didn't see that Romulan dude at all. I didn't want him, so that is clearly good, but the RNG is certainly fickle. It seems rigged on many occasions in my experience. I went through a spell (3 weeks) of horrible shuttle boost RNG. It was way too rare to get time boosts. Nine packs seems excessive to not get something with a 30% chance to drop. I definitely empathize with your plight.
Y'all keep saying "30% chance to drop". As if that means Seven has a 30% chance. Each 4* has a 10.13% chance, according to the info button. Y'all are adding {apparently} all three, and assigning it to one Crew member.....
Where did you get 10.13 from? Mine says 5.06 for purple crew, 10.13 is for schematics
Regarding 30% - I don’t know the reason for it either but people think that for 10x pull which guarantees a purple OR a legendary, 90% chance is for purple and 10 is for legendary, as there 3 purples the chance for one of them is 30%
Okay, that is worse then. I looked at the wrong line. My eyes are old. And warranty is expired.
"The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
The Livery pack is BS. Odds are rigged. I've done like 15 of them, keras dropped 9 times, doctor dropped 3 times, opaka dropped twice, ONE SEVEN. RIGGED.
Uh, RNG. It happens. Ask about the Gary Seven thing. I forgot who it was. But, I guarantee he remembers......
I'm not talking about the odds of getting a 5*. The odds are stated, 10% chance in the 10x pull. If I do 15 pulls, it is resonable that I wouldn't pull a 5*.
However, the way the packs are presented, all 4* crew featured have equal chance, ie. If there are 3 of them, 90/3 or 30% for each crew. You don't do 15 pulls and get only 1 that is SUPPOSED TO BE 30% odds.
Please don't hate me, but I did 8 pulls. Four were Author Doctor and four were Indignant Seven. I didn't see that Romulan dude at all. I didn't want him, so that is clearly good, but the RNG is certainly fickle. It seems rigged on many occasions in my experience. I went through a spell (3 weeks) of horrible shuttle boost RNG. It was way too rare to get time boosts. Nine packs seems excessive to not get something with a 30% chance to drop. I definitely empathize with your plight.
Y'all keep saying "30% chance to drop". As if that means Seven has a 30% chance. Each 4* has a 10.13% chance, according to the info button. Y'all are adding {apparently} all three, and assigning it to one Crew member.....
There is a guarantee that SR or Legendary will drop in each x10 pull. If it's 90/10 SR-to-Legendary, and there's three SR's, then 30% sounds right. There would have to be other math that I don't understand to behave significantly differently.
The 10.13% in the info box is the chance of getting 3 star, 4 star, or 5 star (30.39% total) schematics on a 72 dil pull.
Yeah. I got it now. I was looking wrong.
But, my evaluation of how the odds actually work out in real life holds. Four ten pulls do not give you a 120% chance of getting Seven. Each ten pull that ten pull has a 30% chance. then the next also has a 30% chance. I know that classroom statistics say that the percentage does {on paper} go up each time by some percentage. But, that does not mean it will in real life.
Sorry I messed people up by looking at the wrong numbers.
Maths is not my long suit. But, my anti-matter generator is coming along nicely.....
"The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
The Livery pack is BS. Odds are rigged. I've done like 15 of them, keras dropped 9 times, doctor dropped 3 times, opaka dropped twice, ONE SEVEN. RIGGED.
Uh, RNG. It happens. Ask about the Gary Seven thing. I forgot who it was. But, I guarantee he remembers......
I'm not talking about the odds of getting a 5*. The odds are stated, 10% chance in the 10x pull. If I do 15 pulls, it is resonable that I wouldn't pull a 5*.
However, the way the packs are presented, all 4* crew featured have equal chance, ie. If there are 3 of them, 90/3 or 30% for each crew. You don't do 15 pulls and get only 1 that is SUPPOSED TO BE 30% odds.
Please don't hate me, but I did 8 pulls. Four were Author Doctor and four were Indignant Seven. I didn't see that Romulan dude at all. I didn't want him, so that is clearly good, but the RNG is certainly fickle. It seems rigged on many occasions in my experience. I went through a spell (3 weeks) of horrible shuttle boost RNG. It was way too rare to get time boosts. Nine packs seems excessive to not get something with a 30% chance to drop. I definitely empathize with your plight.
Y'all keep saying "30% chance to drop". As if that means Seven has a 30% chance. Each 4* has a 10.13% chance, according to the info button. Y'all are adding {apparently} all three, and assigning it to one Crew member.....
There is a guarantee that SR or Legendary will drop in each x10 pull. If it's 90/10 SR-to-Legendary, and there's three SR's, then 30% sounds right. There would have to be other math that I don't understand to behave significantly differently.
The 10.13% in the info box is the chance of getting 3 star, 4 star, or 5 star (30.39% total) schematics on a 72 dil pull.
Yeah. I got it now. I was looking wrong.
But, my evaluation of how the odds actually work out in real life holds. Four ten pulls do not give you a 120% chance of getting Seven. Each ten pull that ten pull has a 30% chance. then the next also has a 30% chance. I know that classroom statistics say that the percentage does {on paper} go up each time by some percentage. But, that does not mean it will in real life.
Sorry I messed people up by looking at the wrong numbers.
Maths is not my long suit. But, my anti-matter generator is coming along nicely.....
I knew the concept you meant. I probably should have mentioned that part was solid. But we all agree that 9 pulls with no Seven is bad.
The Livery pack is BS. Odds are rigged. I've done like 15 of them, keras dropped 9 times, doctor dropped 3 times, opaka dropped twice, ONE SEVEN. RIGGED.
Uh, RNG. It happens. Ask about the Gary Seven thing. I forgot who it was. But, I guarantee he remembers......
I'm not talking about the odds of getting a 5*. The odds are stated, 10% chance in the 10x pull. If I do 15 pulls, it is resonable that I wouldn't pull a 5*.
However, the way the packs are presented, all 4* crew featured have equal chance, ie. If there are 3 of them, 90/3 or 30% for each crew. You don't do 15 pulls and get only 1 that is SUPPOSED TO BE 30% odds.
Please don't hate me, but I did 8 pulls. Four were Author Doctor and four were Indignant Seven. I didn't see that Romulan dude at all. I didn't want him, so that is clearly good, but the RNG is certainly fickle. It seems rigged on many occasions in my experience. I went through a spell (3 weeks) of horrible shuttle boost RNG. It was way too rare to get time boosts. Nine packs seems excessive to not get something with a 30% chance to drop. I definitely empathize with your plight.
Y'all keep saying "30% chance to drop". As if that means Seven has a 30% chance. Each 4* has a 10.13% chance, according to the info button. Y'all are adding {apparently} all three, and assigning it to one Crew member.....
Where did you get 10.13 from? Mine says 5.06 for purple crew, 10.13 is for schematics
Regarding 30% - I don’t know the reason for it either but people think that for 10x pull which guarantees a purple OR a legendary, 90% chance is for purple and 10 is for legendary, as there 3 purples the chance for one of them is 30%
Okay, that is worse then. I looked at the wrong line. My eyes are old. And warranty is expired.
I'm glad this was already explained so I didn't have to rage at you calling me an idiot. on the 10x pull your are guaranteed a featured crew. 90% chance it is a 4*, 10% chance it's the 5*. The odds you are talking about are the individual odds for the other 9 spots. Ie. This:
The Livery pack is BS. Odds are rigged. I've done like 15 of them, keras dropped 9 times, doctor dropped 3 times, opaka dropped twice, ONE SEVEN. RIGGED.
Uh, RNG. It happens. Ask about the Gary Seven thing. I forgot who it was. But, I guarantee he remembers......
I'm not talking about the odds of getting a 5*. The odds are stated, 10% chance in the 10x pull. If I do 15 pulls, it is resonable that I wouldn't pull a 5*.
However, the way the packs are presented, all 4* crew featured have equal chance, ie. If there are 3 of them, 90/3 or 30% for each crew. You don't do 15 pulls and get only 1 that is SUPPOSED TO BE 30% odds.
Please don't hate me, but I did 8 pulls. Four were Author Doctor and four were Indignant Seven. I didn't see that Romulan dude at all. I didn't want him, so that is clearly good, but the RNG is certainly fickle. It seems rigged on many occasions in my experience. I went through a spell (3 weeks) of horrible shuttle boost RNG. It was way too rare to get time boosts. Nine packs seems excessive to not get something with a 30% chance to drop. I definitely empathize with your plight.
Y'all keep saying "30% chance to drop". As if that means Seven has a 30% chance. Each 4* has a 10.13% chance, according to the info button. Y'all are adding {apparently} all three, and assigning it to one Crew member.....
There is a guarantee that SR or Legendary will drop in each x10 pull. If it's 90/10 SR-to-Legendary, and there's three SR's, then 30% sounds right. There would have to be other math that I don't understand to behave significantly differently.
The 10.13% in the info box is the chance of getting 3 star, 4 star, or 5 star (30.39% total) schematics on a 72 dil pull.
Yeah. I got it now. I was looking wrong.
But, my evaluation of how the odds actually work out in real life holds. Four ten pulls do not give you a 120% chance of getting Seven. Each ten pull that ten pull has a 30% chance. then the next also has a 30% chance. I know that classroom statistics say that the percentage does {on paper} go up each time by some percentage. But, that does not mean it will in real life.
Sorry I messed people up by looking at the wrong numbers.
Maths is not my long suit. But, my anti-matter generator is coming along nicely.....
I knew the concept you meant. I probably should have mentioned that part was solid. But we all agree that 9 pulls with no Seven is bad.
Oh, I agree that nine packs without one is bad and does that thing that gets tsk tsked if you type it. Was just pointing out it is entirely possible to have that kind of bad luck, maths not withstanding.
"The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
The Livery pack is BS. Odds are rigged. I've done like 15 of them, keras dropped 9 times, doctor dropped 3 times, opaka dropped twice, ONE SEVEN. RIGGED.
Uh, RNG. It happens. Ask about the Gary Seven thing. I forgot who it was. But, I guarantee he remembers......
I'm not talking about the odds of getting a 5*. The odds are stated, 10% chance in the 10x pull. If I do 15 pulls, it is resonable that I wouldn't pull a 5*.
However, the way the packs are presented, all 4* crew featured have equal chance, ie. If there are 3 of them, 90/3 or 30% for each crew. You don't do 15 pulls and get only 1 that is SUPPOSED TO BE 30% odds.
Please don't hate me, but I did 8 pulls. Four were Author Doctor and four were Indignant Seven. I didn't see that Romulan dude at all. I didn't want him, so that is clearly good, but the RNG is certainly fickle. It seems rigged on many occasions in my experience. I went through a spell (3 weeks) of horrible shuttle boost RNG. It was way too rare to get time boosts. Nine packs seems excessive to not get something with a 30% chance to drop. I definitely empathize with your plight.
Y'all keep saying "30% chance to drop". As if that means Seven has a 30% chance. Each 4* has a 10.13% chance, according to the info button. Y'all are adding {apparently} all three, and assigning it to one Crew member.....
Where did you get 10.13 from? Mine says 5.06 for purple crew, 10.13 is for schematics
Regarding 30% - I don’t know the reason for it either but people think that for 10x pull which guarantees a purple OR a legendary, 90% chance is for purple and 10 is for legendary, as there 3 purples the chance for one of them is 30%
Okay, that is worse then. I looked at the wrong line. My eyes are old. And warranty is expired.
I'm glad this was already explained so I didn't have to rage at you calling me an idiot. on the 10x pull your are guaranteed a featured crew. 90% chance it is a 4*, 10% chance it's the 5*. The odds you are talking about are the individual odds for the other 9 spots. Ie. This:
Can't actually find the word "idiot" in any of my posts. if you took it that way, I apologize. And I am sorry the odds did not fall in your favor sincerely.
"The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
"So, you don't understand that statistics are predictive, not objective."
As a learned man, I take this as "you idiot! Gawd". All that said, regarding the "rigged name applying to computers" I absolutely believe that computers perform the same functions the exact same way every time. That's the whole point of a computing device. They are in and of themselves without bias. What I mean by rigged is, I don't believe the programmers set the three 4* crew featured in the pack to receive an equal probability in the rng calculation. Despite the card implying that they have equal probability.
What I mean by rigged is, I don't believe the programmers set the three 4* crew featured in the pack to receive an equal probability in the rng calculation. Despite the card implying that they have equal probability.
My experience was actually fairly good with seven on this pack. On mine got 11 sevens and 2 golds out of 26 pulls, so 11/24 on the packs with a purple.
I’m happy. I got two Sevens on four pulls Tuesday and used my two SR citations I’d been sitting on from Campaigns. $9.99 well spent. I’ll just have to have two less Nitro Cold Brews this month.
Good skill set, and come on, it’s a great version of Seven.
"So, you don't understand that statistics are predictive, not objective."
As a learned man, I take this as "you idiot! Gawd". All that said, regarding the "rigged name applying to computers" I absolutely believe that computers perform the same functions the exact same way every time. That's the whole point of a computing device. They are in and of themselves without bias. What I mean by rigged is, I don't believe the programmers set the three 4* crew featured in the pack to receive an equal probability in the rng calculation. Despite the card implying that they have equal probability.
Again, I apologize. That was harshly phrased by me. No offense was intended.
They do have equal probability. For each Pull. However, It's not like the Dabo Wheel, where when you get something, it is struck from the list. Yes, you should be more likely to get someone else the next time. Especially nine times in a row. However, you can also fall into the "luck" that equates to getting hit by lightning. Twice.
As for the accusation that the company is committing a Federal crime, that probably should not be said based on a feeling. Just free advice.
"The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
At first I didn't want to go on the hunt for Seven. In the past I had extremely bad luck with the tuesday packs. And my Holodoc is at 3/5 and I definitely don't want to waste him for a 1/5 cheesecake.
But with the new offer I decided to go for it. Wrong decision...
First pull: Opaka (my first tuesday gold in a long time...)
Then 8 Authors in a row.
Followed by 4 Keras (2 of them in beholds)
And another Author in the last pack.
Out of dil now.
14 packs and no Seven.
I know why I hate these tuesday packs...
Only good thing was a begold, that brought DF Paris to 4/5.
At first I didn't want to go on the hunt for Seven. In the past I had extremely bad luck with the tuesday packs. And my Holodoc is at 3/5 and I definitely don't want to waste him for a 1/5 cheesecake.
But with the new offer I decided to go for it. Wrong decision...
First pull: Opaka (my first tuesday gold in a long time...)
Then 8 Authors in a row.
Followed by 4 Keras (2 of them in beholds)
And another Author in the last pack.
Out of dil now.
14 packs and no Seven.
I know why I hate these tuesday packs...
Only good thing was a begold, that brought DF Paris to 4/5.
This is what I'm talking about. The odds of pulling holodoc each time is 30%. The odds of pulling him 8 times in a row??? GTFO
"So, you don't understand that statistics are predictive, not objective."
As a learned man, I take this as "you idiot! Gawd". All that said, regarding the "rigged name applying to computers" I absolutely believe that computers perform the same functions the exact same way every time. That's the whole point of a computing device. They are in and of themselves without bias. What I mean by rigged is, I don't believe the programmers set the three 4* crew featured in the pack to receive an equal probability in the rng calculation. Despite the card implying that they have equal probability.
Again, I apologize. That was harshly phrased by me. No offense was intended.
They do have equal probability. For each Pull. However, It's not like the Dabo Wheel, where when you get something, it is struck from the list. Yes, you should be more likely to get someone else the next time. Especially nine times in a row. However, you can also fall into the "luck" that equates to getting hit by lightning. Twice.
As for the accusation that the company is committing a Federal crime, that probably should not be said based on a feeling. Just free advice.
At first I didn't want to go on the hunt for Seven. In the past I had extremely bad luck with the tuesday packs. And my Holodoc is at 3/5 and I definitely don't want to waste him for a 1/5 cheesecake.
But with the new offer I decided to go for it. Wrong decision...
First pull: Opaka (my first tuesday gold in a long time...)
Then 8 Authors in a row.
Followed by 4 Keras (2 of them in beholds)
And another Author in the last pack.
Out of dil now.
14 packs and no Seven.
I know why I hate these tuesday packs...
Only good thing was a begold, that brought DF Paris to 4/5.
This is what I'm talking about. The odds of pulling holodoc each time is 30%. The odds of pulling him 8 times in a row??? GTFO
Across fifteen pulls I ended up with one Seven, four Doctors, one Ziyal (plus one extra), one Tainer (plus one extra), and 8 Kerases. I don’t recall the exact order, but that doesn’t really matter - what matters is that the chances of getting crew in the exact order I did are about the same as getting ELiL’s exact particular order. There is no conditional probability (that we know of) that tips the scales towards getting one crew over the other because “too many” of one of them were pulled across an arbitrary number of packs.
OK, I feel like you guys aren't following, or I'm not communicating effectively. These packs have "featured crew". When you buy a 10x pack at 650 Dil, you are guaranteed one of the featured crew. 10% chance at the 5*, 90% chance at one of the 4*s. So with one 5*, and the 4*s featured it would be, 10/30/30/30 odds. It is either stated explicitly or at least implied that the odds between the offered crew is identical.
What I'm saying is, I am suspicious that indignant seven is set up to have lower odds than doctor and keras. FOR EXAMPLE: 10% at one of the 5*s, 40% at keras, 40% at the doctor, and only 10% at seven.
OK, I feel like you guys aren't following, or I'm not communicating effectively. These packs have "featured crew". When you buy a 10x pack at 650 Dil, you are guaranteed one of the featured crew. 10% chance at the 5*, 90% chance at one of the 4*s. So with one 5*, and the 4*s featured it would be, 10/30/30/30 odds. It is either stated explicitly or at least implied that the odds between the offered crew is identical.
What I'm saying is, I am suspicious that indignant seven is set up to have lower odds than doctor and keras. FOR EXAMPLE: 10% at one of the 5*s, 40% at keras, 40% at the doctor, and only 10% at seven.
Except that lots of people have been beating the odds to get her. Lorca got her four times out of eight packs. gobolts got her two times out of four packs. I got her one time out of one pack. If we add all of the results across thousands of players together (so that we have enough numbers to actually mean something!), I imagine we'd be around that 30%.
A bit like when we collated the results across thousands of "rigged" Gauntlet matches together, and found that it was completely fair after all.
Actually we don’t have to add the results across all players. RNG must be per player, not global. And it really looks like in STT it’s global. Some got 4 crew out of 4 pulls, while at the same period of time others got 0 out of 9 or more pulls. Some got 4 legendaries out of 10 10x Tuesday pulls, some got 0 out of 20 10x Tuesday pulls. And so on.
I don’t think that the odds are rigged in a sense they’re tweaked for purpose. I just think that developers cannot into proper RNG implementation
Actually we don’t have to add the results across all players. RNG must be per player, not global. And it really looks like in STT it’s global.
No, it's just that one player doesn't typically open 500+ packs to provide a nice sample size. Using the results across multiple players simply gives a better idea of the odds in play. If you keep limiting your sample size to, say, 15 packs, you'll frequently spit out what appear to be oddities, e.g. one Seven in 15 packs, or four Legendaries, or the same super-rare back-to-back five times!
Some got 4 crew out of 4 pulls, while at the same period of time others got 0 out of 9 or more pulls. Some got 4 legendaries out of 10 10x Tuesday pulls, some got 0 out of 20 10x Tuesday pulls. And so on.
Right. Yes. Sure. In a small sample size, variations pop up that look crazy if you don't understand the math. But those variations would average out as the sample size grows. Per player, global, it's all the same - it's just that per player gives such small sample sizes that are, in isolation, statistically misleading.
OK, I feel like you guys aren't following, or I'm not communicating effectively. These packs have "featured crew". When you buy a 10x pack at 650 Dil, you are guaranteed one of the featured crew. 10% chance at the 5*, 90% chance at one of the 4*s. So with one 5*, and the 4*s featured it would be, 10/30/30/30 odds. It is either stated explicitly or at least implied that the odds between the offered crew is identical.
What I'm saying is, I am suspicious that indignant seven is set up to have lower odds than doctor and keras. FOR EXAMPLE: 10% at one of the 5*s, 40% at keras, 40% at the doctor, and only 10% at seven.
But, you are assuming shenanigans on the part of Disruptor beam, based on your real life results not exactly matching the odds. People beat the odds all the time to win huge lottery pay outs. You just "beat" the odds in a way that was detrimental to what you wanted to happen. Does not mean DB committed a crime, or "fudged" the odds. As I have said: Statistics tell us what should happen. Real life is what actually happens. Someone who is more in tune with maths can explain the how the odds change for each Pull in a series, as to getting the same card repeatedly. It gets complex. And the odds go down each time you repeat a result for that result repeat again. but it still happens.
I follow what you are saying. You communicated it fine. I am just explaining that even though you can usually predict outcomes to some extent pretty accurately, there are still "wild card" results, that defy the odds.
As Robert Anson Heinlein pointed out, a baby is impossible. Yet, people have them pretty often.......
Should Disruptor Beam list the specific odds per card? Yes, if it is "weighted" within the Purples or the Golds. It could very well be that the 90% is not divided 30%/30%/30%. However, the reason the percentages is listed is because DB operates under rules set by some of the third parties which provide downloads of the App and which allow people to purchase the add ons and specials. I imagine those rules might include a rule about being more specific is the Golds and/or Purples are "weighted" within their drop pools......
"The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
Actually we don’t have to add the results across all players. RNG must be per player, not global. And it really looks like in STT it’s global. Some got 4 crew out of 4 pulls, while at the same period of time others got 0 out of 9 or more pulls. Some got 4 legendaries out of 10 10x Tuesday pulls, some got 0 out of 20 10x Tuesday pulls. And so on.
I don’t think that the odds are rigged in a sense they’re tweaked for purpose. I just think that developers cannot into proper RNG implementation
PenguinJim covered sample size very well. Nothing to add, except his point is totally on spot.
"The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
You’re both say right things, but I’d like to point a couple of very important moments.
How long should ‘long enough sequence’ be? A player really doesn’t have to open 500+ packs for it to be ‘long enough’. It depends on the odds. For 30% probability (if it’s really 30%) the odds of NOT getting it in 14 attempts are 0.00678223072. So I call 14 pulls as long enough sequence in this case.
And regarding weighted probability - CS had clearly told me that for the same level of cards probability in all packs are the same. So it have to be the same for Seven, Doctor and Keras.
You’re both say right things, but I’d like to point a couple of very important moments.
How long should ‘long enough sequence’ be? A player really doesn’t have to open 500+ packs for it to be ‘long enough’. It depends on the odds. For 30% probability (if it’s really 30%) the odds of NOT getting it in 14 attempts are 0.00678223072. So I call 14 pulls as long enough sequence in this case.
And regarding weighted probability - CS had clearly told me that for the same level of cards probability in all packs are the same. So it have to be the same for Seven, Doctor and Keras.
The problem with that Bolded part is that although it is unlikely, the odds can still be "beat".......
Thus, a sample size of fourteen {especially one that varies from the parameters of the odds, is NOT a large enough sample. Sorry.
"The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
You’re both say right things, but I’d like to point a couple of very important moments.
How long should ‘long enough sequence’ be? A player really doesn’t have to open 500+ packs for it to be ‘long enough’. It depends on the odds. For 30% probability (if it’s really 30%) the odds of NOT getting it in 14 attempts are 0.00678223072. So I call 14 pulls as long enough sequence in this case.
And regarding weighted probability - CS had clearly told me that for the same level of cards probability in all packs are the same. So it have to be the same for Seven, Doctor and Keras.
The problem with that Bolded part is that although it is unlikely, the odds can still be "beat".......
Thus, a sample size of fourteen {especially one that varies from the parameters of the odds, is NOT a large enough sample. Sorry.
You’re both say right things, but I’d like to point a couple of very important moments.
How long should ‘long enough sequence’ be? A player really doesn’t have to open 500+ packs for it to be ‘long enough’. It depends on the odds. For 30% probability (if it’s really 30%) the odds of NOT getting it in 14 attempts are 0.00678223072. So I call 14 pulls as long enough sequence in this case.
And regarding weighted probability - CS had clearly told me that for the same level of cards probability in all packs are the same. So it have to be the same for Seven, Doctor and Keras.
The problem with that Bolded part is that although it is unlikely, the odds can still be "beat".......
Thus, a sample size of fourteen {especially one that varies from the parameters of the odds, is NOT a large enough sample. Sorry.
For 30% 14 is more than long enough. Sorry
Except that the real world results proved it was not. Some people just do not like it. Does not make it untrue.
"The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
You’re both say right things, but I’d like to point a couple of very important moments.
How long should ‘long enough sequence’ be? A player really doesn’t have to open 500+ packs for it to be ‘long enough’. It depends on the odds. For 30% probability (if it’s really 30%) the odds of NOT getting it in 14 attempts are 0.00678223072. So I call 14 pulls as long enough sequence in this case.
And regarding weighted probability - CS had clearly told me that for the same level of cards probability in all packs are the same. So it have to be the same for Seven, Doctor and Keras.
The problem with that Bolded part is that although it is unlikely, the odds can still be "beat".......
Thus, a sample size of fourteen {especially one that varies from the parameters of the odds, is NOT a large enough sample. Sorry.
For 30% 14 is more than long enough. Sorry
Except that the real world results proved it was not. Some people just do not like it. Does not make it untrue.
It hasn’t proved anything so far. The fact that others are getting Seven every two pulls doesn’t prove anything really. I’d say that on the contrary this situation - not getting in 14 pulls - can prove that there’s something wrong with RNG. But we don’t know the exact probability. If it’s 30%, I’ve provided the odds, they’re essentially 0.
Comments
There is a guarantee that SR or Legendary will drop in each x10 pull. If it's 90/10 SR-to-Legendary, and there's three SR's, then 30% sounds right. There would have to be other math that I don't understand to behave significantly differently.
Okay, that is worse then. I looked at the wrong line. My eyes are old. And warranty is expired.
Yeah. I got it now. I was looking wrong.
But, my evaluation of how the odds actually work out in real life holds. Four ten pulls do not give you a 120% chance of getting Seven. Each ten pull that ten pull has a 30% chance. then the next also has a 30% chance. I know that classroom statistics say that the percentage does {on paper} go up each time by some percentage. But, that does not mean it will in real life.
Sorry I messed people up by looking at the wrong numbers.
Maths is not my long suit. But, my anti-matter generator is coming along nicely.....
I knew the concept you meant. I probably should have mentioned that part was solid. But we all agree that 9 pulls with no Seven is bad.
I'm glad this was already explained so I didn't have to rage at you calling me an idiot.
Oh, I agree that nine packs without one is bad and does that thing that gets tsk tsked if you type it. Was just pointing out it is entirely possible to have that kind of bad luck, maths not withstanding.
Can't actually find the word "idiot" in any of my posts. if you took it that way, I apologize. And I am sorry the odds did not fall in your favor sincerely.
As a learned man, I take this as "you idiot! Gawd". All that said, regarding the "rigged name applying to computers" I absolutely believe that computers perform the same functions the exact same way every time. That's the whole point of a computing device. They are in and of themselves without bias. What I mean by rigged is, I don't believe the programmers set the three 4* crew featured in the pack to receive an equal probability in the rng calculation. Despite the card implying that they have equal probability.
My experience was actually fairly good with seven on this pack. On mine got 11 sevens and 2 golds out of 26 pulls, so 11/24 on the packs with a purple.
Good skill set, and come on, it’s a great version of Seven.
Again, I apologize. That was harshly phrased by me. No offense was intended.
They do have equal probability. For each Pull. However, It's not like the Dabo Wheel, where when you get something, it is struck from the list. Yes, you should be more likely to get someone else the next time. Especially nine times in a row. However, you can also fall into the "luck" that equates to getting hit by lightning. Twice.
As for the accusation that the company is committing a Federal crime, that probably should not be said based on a feeling. Just free advice.
But with the new offer I decided to go for it. Wrong decision...
First pull: Opaka (my first tuesday gold in a long time...)
Then 8 Authors in a row.
Followed by 4 Keras (2 of them in beholds)
And another Author in the last pack.
Out of dil now.
14 packs and no Seven.
I know why I hate these tuesday packs...
Only good thing was a begold, that brought DF Paris to 4/5.
This is what I'm talking about. The odds of pulling holodoc each time is 30%. The odds of pulling him 8 times in a row??? GTFO
We're good.
Across fifteen pulls I ended up with one Seven, four Doctors, one Ziyal (plus one extra), one Tainer (plus one extra), and 8 Kerases. I don’t recall the exact order, but that doesn’t really matter - what matters is that the chances of getting crew in the exact order I did are about the same as getting ELiL’s exact particular order. There is no conditional probability (that we know of) that tips the scales towards getting one crew over the other because “too many” of one of them were pulled across an arbitrary number of packs.
What I'm saying is, I am suspicious that indignant seven is set up to have lower odds than doctor and keras. FOR EXAMPLE: 10% at one of the 5*s, 40% at keras, 40% at the doctor, and only 10% at seven.
Except that lots of people have been beating the odds to get her. Lorca got her four times out of eight packs. gobolts got her two times out of four packs. I got her one time out of one pack. If we add all of the results across thousands of players together (so that we have enough numbers to actually mean something!), I imagine we'd be around that 30%.
A bit like when we collated the results across thousands of "rigged" Gauntlet matches together, and found that it was completely fair after all.
You had bad luck this week. Don't sweat it.
I don’t think that the odds are rigged in a sense they’re tweaked for purpose. I just think that developers cannot into proper RNG implementation
Right. Yes. Sure. In a small sample size, variations pop up that look crazy if you don't understand the math. But those variations would average out as the sample size grows. Per player, global, it's all the same - it's just that per player gives such small sample sizes that are, in isolation, statistically misleading.
But, you are assuming shenanigans on the part of Disruptor beam, based on your real life results not exactly matching the odds. People beat the odds all the time to win huge lottery pay outs. You just "beat" the odds in a way that was detrimental to what you wanted to happen. Does not mean DB committed a crime, or "fudged" the odds. As I have said: Statistics tell us what should happen. Real life is what actually happens. Someone who is more in tune with maths can explain the how the odds change for each Pull in a series, as to getting the same card repeatedly. It gets complex. And the odds go down each time you repeat a result for that result repeat again. but it still happens.
I follow what you are saying. You communicated it fine. I am just explaining that even though you can usually predict outcomes to some extent pretty accurately, there are still "wild card" results, that defy the odds.
As Robert Anson Heinlein pointed out, a baby is impossible. Yet, people have them pretty often.......
Should Disruptor Beam list the specific odds per card? Yes, if it is "weighted" within the Purples or the Golds. It could very well be that the 90% is not divided 30%/30%/30%. However, the reason the percentages is listed is because DB operates under rules set by some of the third parties which provide downloads of the App and which allow people to purchase the add ons and specials. I imagine those rules might include a rule about being more specific is the Golds and/or Purples are "weighted" within their drop pools......
PenguinJim covered sample size very well. Nothing to add, except his point is totally on spot.
How long should ‘long enough sequence’ be? A player really doesn’t have to open 500+ packs for it to be ‘long enough’. It depends on the odds. For 30% probability (if it’s really 30%) the odds of NOT getting it in 14 attempts are 0.00678223072. So I call 14 pulls as long enough sequence in this case.
And regarding weighted probability - CS had clearly told me that for the same level of cards probability in all packs are the same. So it have to be the same for Seven, Doctor and Keras.
The problem with that Bolded part is that although it is unlikely, the odds can still be "beat".......
Thus, a sample size of fourteen {especially one that varies from the parameters of the odds, is NOT a large enough sample. Sorry.
Now, is there anywhere in the game odds for, let’s say, Dabo wheel specified? I wonder why the app that violates the rules is still in the store.
For 30% 14 is more than long enough. Sorry
Except that the real world results proved it was not. Some people just do not like it. Does not make it untrue.
It hasn’t proved anything so far. The fact that others are getting Seven every two pulls doesn’t prove anything really. I’d say that on the contrary this situation - not getting in 14 pulls - can prove that there’s something wrong with RNG. But we don’t know the exact probability. If it’s 30%, I’ve provided the odds, they’re essentially 0.