Portal update data collection opportunity
Synthetic Commander
✭✭✭✭✭
in The Bridge
For those of us data nerds (paging @Travis S McClain )
I have had a theory for a while, which might just be confirmation bias, that portal/voyage drops seem to target specific crew during events, or sometimes just a specific crew seems to drop uncommonly often for a short time.
If that theory is correct, portal pulls and/or voyages (voyages have a different drop mechanism so might not follow the same pattern) during this mega event would drop a higher than expected ratio of scoundrels, as well as riker variants for this week for example.
Since we have a number of forum regulars who have been hoarding portal pulls waiting for the update, and we know it's happening in August, this seems like a unique opportunity to gather a large data set of drops to see if there appears to be a bias towards event trait/crew variants.
Thought I'd throw it out there to see if anyone else might be interested in gathering this data and analyzing it. Even the analysis is tricky, because there are a large number of scoundrels and we need to compare the total of their drops to non-scoundrels. If we did all pulls this week (just as an example) we could also analyze including Riker variants, and compare that drop rate to non-variants to see if there is a statistical difference.
I'd be interested to know this information for Legends in particular, but a separate analysis would be interesting for SR crew too. For example it would be interesting to know if more coffee janeways might drop during janeway events, paris events for mutant paris, etc.
It would also be interesting to note if any particular crew seemed to drop more than others who are not event variants. I had seen a VERY low drop rate for xindi counsellor for example, then suddenly within a week 3 of our fleet mates had him drop and more since. It seems like that crew's drop rate has increased, while others like FO Burnham remain lower. This of course might be further confirmation bias without more data!
I have had a theory for a while, which might just be confirmation bias, that portal/voyage drops seem to target specific crew during events, or sometimes just a specific crew seems to drop uncommonly often for a short time.
If that theory is correct, portal pulls and/or voyages (voyages have a different drop mechanism so might not follow the same pattern) during this mega event would drop a higher than expected ratio of scoundrels, as well as riker variants for this week for example.
Since we have a number of forum regulars who have been hoarding portal pulls waiting for the update, and we know it's happening in August, this seems like a unique opportunity to gather a large data set of drops to see if there appears to be a bias towards event trait/crew variants.
Thought I'd throw it out there to see if anyone else might be interested in gathering this data and analyzing it. Even the analysis is tricky, because there are a large number of scoundrels and we need to compare the total of their drops to non-scoundrels. If we did all pulls this week (just as an example) we could also analyze including Riker variants, and compare that drop rate to non-variants to see if there is a statistical difference.
I'd be interested to know this information for Legends in particular, but a separate analysis would be interesting for SR crew too. For example it would be interesting to know if more coffee janeways might drop during janeway events, paris events for mutant paris, etc.
It would also be interesting to note if any particular crew seemed to drop more than others who are not event variants. I had seen a VERY low drop rate for xindi counsellor for example, then suddenly within a week 3 of our fleet mates had him drop and more since. It seems like that crew's drop rate has increased, while others like FO Burnham remain lower. This of course might be further confirmation bias without more data!
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Comments
I get alot of 4* crew such as amb spock leading up to a spock event. To use your example the xindi counselor, exactly the same nvr saw that card until about 6-8 wks ago then suddenly 4 or 5 in my fleet including myself get the drop. This week almost all my voyages have produced sheriff worf and lots of rikers. Last week amb spock. The week before, gorn cpt. I take note of who is dropping in voyages bcuz it for sure correlates with upcoming bonus or event crew. Aprox 1-2 wks in advance of event. No coincidence. 👍🏻 Of course there are the random 4*’s. I am not saying rvery drop is correlated. But even the portal will drop 4* crew more often that are slated for bonus crew in an upcoming event. Playing for 3yrs, 8 months you take notice of these things over time.
As far as coffee janeway and mutant paris i had tons of them dropping before the fused lizard janeway but of course i have both frozen so airlocked all of them for a month. 6-8 janeways and 3 mutant paris. 🤬
...at least for rare crew in event packs, but I think they increase the probability just everywhere and have observed this myself for SRs too, not for legendaries though, but I do not pull that much as that it would have any statistical relevance.
I've never noticed the behavior described there from event packs. But I'm well past the point where any rare crew is anything but a "waste." Still want the honor though.
Exactly. My gut agrees with your gut. Lol
(One just dropped in my first dillema out)
Might be related.
I'll try to make some kind of record while opening my saved pulls.
I started being interested in this thread, then I read "Ambassador Sock", and kinda lost it.
Dammit! I've lost the use of several of my keys. I've been making do by reassigning some and using the touch pad. A replacement palm rest came yesterday. Just gotta install it.
Ambassador Sock
DPI / SEC / CMD
Traits: Sock, Ambassador, Cultural Figure, Survivalist
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zrObDH5UtTOfSm37pdMVmm7hwr2u6kMDgdWZpwfjON8/edit?usp=sharing
If it's all in the same format like this, it'll be easier to compile together. I'm happy to collect and do some analysis, but I won't promise how fast I'll have results.
We did a Star Trek Sock Puppet Contest in TLA in June.
Ambassador Sock would have been a great contender.
Our winner was Locutus of Sock
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Favoring drops for variants is behavior that has existed since damn near Dawn of Game. The data collection has also already been done by two players - Space Lincolon and AA Sisko - in this thread https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/comment/17985#Comment_17985
Proud Former Officer of The Gluten Empire
Retired 12-14-20. So long, and thanks for all the cat pics!
Thanks SilverRose. It's interesting that in the same post Shan is stating there's no preference for crew variants in drops, while 10k pulls is a very good data set to show a pattern emerge.
I'm curious as to the methods used. I wonder if they were simply looking for patterns of the same crew dropping within a 1 week timespan and ignore traits/crew in events to see if any crew were occurring more, then do some random checks against traits/events to confirm the pattern for a given week.
The more I think about this, I realize I probably don't have the math statistical knowledge to compile this data for more than a small timeframe. Thankfully this portal update is going to result in a lot of pulls in a short timeframe to analyze.
I’ve made the decision to stop spending until the portal update...it’s as much to give me a reason to save money as it is a commentary on how we’re nearly halfway through the month and are still waiting. That 3k/3k/15 offer yesterday was tempting, no doubt, but my wallet thanked me for avoiding it.
Literally Shan said: which could also mean that the chance is increased _everywhere_ in the game and not specifically in event packs. This would fit to our observations regarding portal pulls and voyages as well.
It voids the wiki-quote though I referred to earlier in this thread - it is probably outdated.
Proud Former Officer of The Gluten Empire
Retired 12-14-20. So long, and thanks for all the cat pics!
Fair enough, but in those threads Shan also mentioned that Nod's quote may have been true in the past but is no longer the case.
There were also comments from other users in the thread that stated there used to be text in the pack announcements that mentioned an increased odds for crew variants, and that text has of course not been present for quite some time.