How do you evaluate LTOs?
Jenos Idanian
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in The Bridge
Hey all, just wondering if the wise players here can share best practices on how you evaluate if an LTO is worth buying or not?
Thanks!
Thanks!
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When packs are included I usually count 10-15 packs as $10 of value, same as a single 5* citation, while chrons, credits, and replicator rations are valued at zero. 4* citations are a little harder to value, as we don’t see them in too many offers; I’ve put them up as high as $5 each in the past but might consider them more in the $2-3 range now.
So, for today’s offer:
-600 dil ≈ $7-10
-15 packs ≈ $10-15
-1,500 chrons = $0
-187,500 credits = $0
If I used my high value estimates this offer comes in about even compared to the list price of $25, but if I use the more conservative estimates I figure it’s only $17 in value for $25.
Interesting way of looking at it. You could toss in there that during galaxies chrons are values at 1250 for $10, if chrons mean something to you. Yes they are usually in abundance in some peoples banks but after burning through them in an event, sometimes one can be scraping for extra chrons anywhere they can get them
Once you have that figured out, step two is to establish a baseline value for that commodity. That can be tricky, but if you play long enough you start to understand roughly what things are worth.
Step three is to then evaluate every LTO that comes along and run it through your needs filter to decide if it is something that will enhance your game, and then compare the listed price with your established value to determine how good the deal is.
From there, arriving at a decision will be pretty simple.
"Ooh! Me likey!"
Or...
"Ugh. Me no likey."
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing.
~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
1. 3k/3k/15packs or better for 25 $ or aliquot value with different price tags
2. 15 packs for 10 $
3. Dil packs see below
4. Characters with stuff for 10 $ only if I really really want the first star (like Queen Po) or if I can add a useful star
My personal price list looks like this:
Dil (3000 Dil ~ 15 $)
Citation (Legendary ~ 8 $, SuperRare ~ 1.5 $)
5* good Char (~ 7 $)
5* "ok" Char to add a star (~ 4 $)
Packs (15 ~ 10$)
Chrons (1000 ~ 1 $)
Honor (10k ~ 2 $)
Credits (1 million ~ 0.5 $)
Char packs always make me consider forth and back the most as they provide relatively few value for their steep price to me. Compared to campaigns they are the most aweful. I would hardly buy them without VIP14 and the Dil that comes with it.
1k dil = $6
1 10x pack = $0.75
1 10x event pack = $4 (though it appears they have nerfed these to mimic the drop rates of the Tuesday special packs, so I am considering dropping this value)
1 Gold Cite = $10
1 Purple Cite = $0 (only viewed as sweetener)
1k honor = $0.75 (basically 1 10x pack)
Credits = $0 (only viewed as sweetener)
1200 Chrons = $10
Gold Card = $10 (but evaluated as a go/no go depending on the character)
Rep Fuel = $0 (not factored in at all)
This just tells me quickly if the offer should be considered or not. If it is a “bad offer”, I pretty much ignore it regardless (though I will on occasion do a $5 offer it hits a problem area for me at the time). But if it is a “good offer”, then I decide if I really want what is offered. Just because there is a GREAT sale on milk at the store does not mean I rent a truck to stock up...
The Tuesday 5* offer I almost always buy. But as my crew has become stronger and stronger, I have become more picky about buying it. For example, I passed on Airiam this week. I just don’t need daily shuttlers. Particularly at 1/5.
The 15 pack / 3k chron / 3k dil is about as no-brainer as it gets.
I value 100 Dil. = $1.00
Packs are tough RNG has made me value them at 1 x10 pack = $0.4
Legendary Crew and legendary citation I value at $10 but some crew I do not value as much or at all.
Keep in mind I do value shuttle tokens and voyage supply but have not yet determined at what price.
Nothing else I value, but this can tip close offers in favor of me buying them.
I look for bargains. So just because I come up with the same amount of worth, does not mean I will buy offer.
So an offer of 2500 Dil. for $24.99 I will not buy. Even with 15 x10 packs included I will not buy. But make it 3000 Dil. and 15 x10 packs I am on the fence post.
Ditto. With all these interesting price per dil, price per pull, price per.. complicated calculations, I'm glad to find one other that evaluates offers like I do.
2 - Isn't there something else I'd rather buy this week?
3 - How much is it? I tend to ignore the more expensive offers regardless of value. The ~25k dil one was an exception.
4 - Did I buy the campaign this month? No means I might if I didn't spend all of my games budget on something else.
5 - Am I interested in the content? If it's mostly packs the answer is probably no.
That being said I'm VIP 12 now so I guess playing for a long time, buying most campaigns and an offer every other month does that to you.
"Do I need stars on that card?"
"Is it worth paying to cite?"
...as one example.
I usually look at the Legendary for $9.99, with 1250 Chronitons and 200,000 Fed Creds as "free" Legendary and Fed Creds. The company has set a specific price for 1250 Chronitons of $9.99, based on the Galaxy/Skirmish Event Offer. Which is likely visible in your Portal right now.
1250 Chronitons for $9.99, and can be bought up to five times.
Does that mean that if I have $9.99 in loose funds, I buy every Legendary LTO? No, it doesn't. Other questions apply.
Do I have Crew Slots, if it is a new Legendary for me?
If I already have the Legendary, is it useful to add a 🌟?
Does the Legendary have "legs"? {Useful in Events, good Voyage Rating, and/or good Shuttle value.}
Is it "Main Crew"? {More likely to feature in Events.}
Is it a Crew I have a particular fondness for?
Does the Legendary have an unique or limited choices Skill Set?
Am I needful of the Primary Skill, or will one of the other Skills help my Voyage scores?
2) Do I want to spend my personal set on budget on the game this month or roll it over?
3) Is the premium track campaign this month worth it? (The 5 star card is a big draw to me as the premium pulls are generally useless and need a significant overhaul for more choices over straight drops...especially the 4 star cards that straight drop, but I digress)
4) Is the LTO better value than the campaign? (Almost always it never is)
5) Does getting the offer keep me roughly in line with my own personal monthly budget (I dont mind going over £1or £2 if its REALLY worth it, especially if I have already bought a premium campaign)
5) Usually the above steps keep me AWAY FROM buying the LTOs, but thats just me personally.
Like many, my budget is limited too. I buy monthly cards and campaigns. I treated myself in Dec to a 15-for-$10 offer (happy b-day to me), and I bought the $25 dilithium-palooza offer. I pass up plenty of good-value offers. That doesn’t stop me from evaluating them.
Fair point.
My own guide to evaluating a LTO is: if im getting a 5 star card or 3k dilithium for around £3 - in line with a monthly card, then im potentially in. So I look at price first, then whats on offer. Then come to a decision.
If the price is too much, i just ignore what the offer is by not bothing to read it and close it if it pops up again.
The premium campaign offers a 5/5(or a 4/5 + a 5* citation if I already have the crew) for $10.
Will this offer provide more value to me in the game than a 5/5? Or will it provide enough resources to get another 5/5 instead?
Most likely the answer is no, so I pass. If they were to offer 4 5* citations for $10, I would buy that.
I used to look at pack + dil and compare it to the 3000 DIL/$4 monthly card. But I've hit the point where those extra packs are likely just 1/5s I don't need or honor. So I'm no longer interested in them either.
The kind of guidance that would assist me the most, is helping me understand how to anticipate which crew might (or might not) become available through LTOs versus events. A number of my 4* & 5* crew have been earned as event rewards (usually thresholds), and I'm still in need of single upgrades to finish them off without resorting to citations. But it would be wasteful to spend good dilithium on such crew, if they're just going to be given away in some event a month from now. Or conversely, maybe there's a way to predict if a crew's future availability will be extremely low? While there are surely no hard and fast rules on this sort of thing, I'm hoping there are at least patterns to these LTOs & related crews/events, so a player can make some educated guesses. If it's all completely random, please tell me now lol.
To use the example of a current offer, Double Jeopardy Recap, the price of 390 dilithium guarantees at least one featured crew. It's maybe not very expensive to some players, but for me it would be an investment. Anyways, it represents a 44% chance (total) to finish upgrading one of my following crew: Soji Asha, Lt. Commander Airiam, Fenris Ranger Seven, Dr. Agnes Jurati, or Christobal Rios. There's also a 10% chance of pulling an unneeded Raffi Musiker, who would be instantly dismissed. The remaining 46% chance would result in getting a new crew, who I would have to ultimately develop or destroy. So if the short answer to my basic question is, "Yes, you can probably finish upgrading one of those five crew without buying this LTO"...that leaves me with less than a 50% chance to pull a new crew which I may or may not actually use. Please advise, and thanks in advance for any insight you can lend.
"The eyes...are the groin...of the face." ~ Dwight K. Schrute III
It's impossible to predict what card will be offered in a LTO. Don't worry about guessing.
Also, most of the crew in LTO are not a great deal. If you're limited in funds I would skip them.
Where do you regularly rank in events? If you're not getting a 4/4 in faction or skirmish events, the first packs I would buy are those event packs. You will either get the 4th star on the threshold reward, an extra star towards a rank reward, or the 5* reward. But you will be guaranteed it's useful.
I would also suggest checking out the discount packs each week during the mega. See if there is a pack where you need both crew, then again you can buy that pack and not risk getting a pack of all honor.
Are you able to complete the campaign? If you are and have a little more money you want to spend, then I would suggest buying the premium campaign when it's a good 5*. It's the cheapest way to get a 5/5 and you get a nice amount of DIL and premium packs too.
Beyond the monthly card and campaign I would suggest skipping all LTOs. They are rarely a better deal. It's only around Christmas, New Years, and maybe Convergence day that there are offers better than a monthly card or premium campaign.
While I don't recall exact event performances, I've generally exceeded 100K VP for threshold rewards and ranked within the final top 5K-15K. This has been giving me a few super-rares/legendaries which are mostly, but not completely, upgraded...hence, my possible interest in LTO pulls. But if I'm understanding you correctly, the time to snag an extra event crew is before the event begins? For instance, I'm now looking at the "Faster Future" pack for 650 dilithium, which has a much better chance of giving the same crew which will be won during the event. Is this the sort of thing you're referring to?
A couple last miscellaneous questions, please. I've seen players mention purchasing extra shuttles, but idk how to do this? My factions screen shows shuttle tokens next to the status of both regular shuttles...but nothing I click on seems to offer the option of expanding this motor pool. Also, I've heard there are occasional sales on buying extra crew slots. Any idea when, or how often, this may happen? Thanks again!
"The eyes...are the groin...of the face." ~ Dwight K. Schrute III
45% : Mirror La Forge
45% : Zora
10% : Admiral Janeway
If you can get to 120k threshold you will get 3 Zoras
At a rank of 5k you will miss La Forge in rank rewards.
If you buy packs until you get a Zora you know it won't go to waste. Then having zora and la forge will help you do better in the event.
I believe where I circled is where you buy extra shuttles. Yours should be less than four.
Just click on it.
Odd way to have to figure that out. It's no surprise that many players have no idea.
Is this deal better or worse?
Do I have the money to spend right now?
The premium campaign is the best value in the game. The dilithium, honor, premium pulls, shuttle tokens, and all the rest are simply miles ahead of the next best deal - the monthly card. The monthly card is a good deal and will help get the dilithium for the 3rd and 4th shuttles, which are necessary to be competitive.
Personally, when I started out, I ignored recap packs. Now they're my #1 dilithium purchase. Their value depends on where you are in the game. It doesn't sound like recaps are your best option just yet. Next mega event, use those 490 packs to build up bonus crew. Talk with your fleet (or come back to the forum to talk) about which packs might be best for your roster. You will probably want to focus on crew with more event potential. That's how I built my roster. This may take a couple mega events before you're better served by recap packs.
490 packs are good for building roster and having bonus crew during the mega event. They also give a good dilithium-to-honor return on investment (ROI).
390 recap packs are good when you have a deep roster and don't need to add bonus crew during the mega event. 390 packs give the best dilithium-to-honor ROI.
Before you start buying packs with dilithium though, there are better uses. Shuttles are #1. Crew slots during a sale and extra Thursday cadet tickets are better uses of dilithium than packs. At least until you have a good stash of slots and boosts built up.
When I was truly motivated to build my reserves, I was buying two refills, ad warping 5 times, and ad doubling 15-17 missions. It requires some planning, yes, but it's not that bad.
Your math is flawless.