Don't ya just love DB/TP "math"?
Drago Musevni
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So as if failing TWO 99% missions within three hours of each other today wasn't enough, I then get treated to:
My 2 skills @25% vs. 1 skill @5% . DB "Math" at its finest.
My 2 skills @25% vs. 1 skill @5% . DB "Math" at its finest.
01000010 01101001 01110100 01100101 00100000 01101101 01111001 00100000 01110011 01101000 01101001 01101110 01111001 00100000 01101101 01100101 01110100 01100001 01101100 00100000 01100001 01110011 01110011 00100001
5
Comments
Event shuttles are failing far more frequently than their “success rate” percentages imply.
Gauntlet is definitely prone to the same issue.
Random number generator aside, this problem is a statistical anomaly and it is experienced frequently by players.
Suggestion 1: display the correct success rate percentages on shuttle missions, or correct the algorithm that is causing them to fail at unacceptable levels.
Suggestion 2: un-rig the gauntlet. It is clearly demonstrable that you are more likely to fail a round when a prize chest from a win streak is on the line.
This is totally possible and not unusual at all. If ur good in maths and know how chances/statistics work you know why. If not, well u just will continue to complain.
Possible, yes.
You are not interpreting the post correctly. This is not an isolated incident that would fall under the “possible” category you are championing. Statistical anomalies and improbabilities are indeed possible. However, when those anomalies develop a pattern, a deviation from statistical likelihood becomes very apparent.
If you “are good at maths and know how chances/statistics work” you would understand this.
So why don’t you take another look at the entire post and reconsider your position. This is a problem that is experienced by many players. That indicates an issue with the probabilities being displayed and the results that are experienced.
To make this abundantly clear to you and anyone else reading, this is a trend. It is experienced every gauntlet, it is experienced every faction event. It is experienced by WAY more than one player.
I suggest, politely, that you adjust your expectations. 🖖
Unacceptable. “This is nothing new”, “been happening for years”, those are lame excuses. This is an issue that is a prominent feature of a game and commands attention. Its false advertising at the least, and poor business practices at best.
I fully believe what you're seeing is a combination of streaks (and possibly some confirmation bias), mixed with the fact that you're likely not seeing your own crew getting the benefit as often because you may not put them up when they have seemingly no chance to win (but I have done this quite a bit, and I can tell you, I've always felt it's pretty even, the way it pans out).
The other thing is, there's a pretty wide range of proficiencies, and it's just as easy for a number to pop up on the lower end of that range as on the higher end. Plus, your 25% isn't a massive difference from your opponent's 5%.
I understand it's frustrating. But random streaks happen. If you've played dice games or card games, you've no doubt seen some crazy streaks going on that seem to defy the laws of probability. So, if TP is messing with things, so is the universe.
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing.
~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
Good luck with that. I prefer to not beat my head against a brick wall, but ... YMMV. 🖖
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selection_bias
The gauntlet behaves like a slot machine. The code will let you win more often when you are at a disadvantage as long as you are under 5 in a streak. Above a 5 when on a 6,9,12.. you are more likely to loose. At the 7,10,11.. you are more likely to win. Not only does the code low roll you on a third, and high roll you on a first, but there are cues to read in the points and generated opponents.
Once you notice the cues you can use it to make better choices. For example, never trust in luck when a box is on the line. The game will intimidate you with a wall, but if you know how to read the points offered you may survive bad odds. It's pure math, no bias. The code is rigged to keep you gambling, just like any gambling machine. It feeds you wins to keep you interested and willing to take a big risk.
I would complain, but why? They aren't going to change it. Most people think it's pure chance and what I said above is based on coincidence. The reality of a rigged system is that if it's gaming you, you can learn to game it. I have about 82% accuracy in predicting payout from the Dabo over the last two months.
As for the shuttle missions, those haven't played well with statistics for patterns yet. Win and loss is definitely not what is displayed. Anyone who has chased a portal pack for a gold should be able to tell you how many times a one percent win/fail happens three times in a row. Shuttles are a joke. The fraction/shuttle system is perhaps the worst example of a rigged system in the game. Success drives up difficulty and offers nothing to the player to correct this. At the very least you might expect the ability to dial down difficulty at the sacrifice rare loot. The mechanics of it are created for the purpose of forcing failure. But the white knights will shout you down because it rigs factions in their favour. They have the crew to weather the false odds failures, and the forced max difficulty ensures newer crews fail more often anyway.
I'm not suggesting people not complain or point out the casino odds. But it may be more effective to track the real odds to game the system back a bit. This game is basically a casino. And the people behind it will never be in a position care much what a few of us say.
I get your point about the futility of complaining about these types of issues, especially in light of the “white knights” like we have in this thread, who can’t resist rushing to defend a broken system in a technical issue forum.
I still think that at a minimum, the game devs could provide a bit more honesty with the displayed success rates of shuttles. Forced max difficulty aside, when the success rate says “99%” it should be a rarity to see it fail.
I know of the patterns and cues you are describing in gauntlet, and yes, there are ways to “weather the storm”, but it should not be that way. The devs have built in countless ways to make players spend dilithium (i.e. real money). The concern that I have is that if issues such as the subject of this thread are not called out and corrected, they are likely to worsen and more predatory mechanisms are likely to be built in.
My sample size is playing gauntlet aggressively for 6 solid months, trying different strategies and observing results. In that same span of time I have been a big participant in faction events.
I am not really interested in reviewing someone’s data. Numbers can easily be manipulated or even fabricated. It is abundantly clear that this forum has a bunch of people who support everything about this game, and aggressively attack any criticisms. I would question the legitimacy of any claims made by members of this forum that “everything is working just fine”, so lets not go down that road please.
I trust my dataset because I know it to be untampered and unbiased. I consider it to be evidence enough of a problem which is why i am adding support to this OP’s thread.
I am not here to duke it out with fanboys.
I am here to express concern and ask for the devs to consider looking into this issue.
The study in question involved collecting results from lots of people, that's why I suggest it's a decent sample size. Whether you agree with the findings or not, I think you might find it interesting and if not, its still very relevant to the thread.
https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/12178/your-gauntlet-just-wow-moment/p1
It's full of things mentioned above. Why? Because after thousands of players play thousands of rounds with RNG that swings wildly, wild things happen. There's some explanations in the thread if you're patient enough to read through.
There seems to be a certain demanding, insulting, and entitled tone in this thread that seems counterproductive. I don't see this thread accomplishing anything but venting. If you want to take a more productive approach, I recommend seeking to understand the current system, find out why players do or don't like it, then make some suggestions to improve things.
Good luck. 🖖
(Yes, it is a long, time-honored tradition wish our newer, angrier forum folks luck in their endeavors.)
Yes, that study had a decent sample size, but that is the only positive thing it had going for it. It really doesn't matter how "good" or how big your data set is if you ask the wrong questions when gathering/analyzing it. Keep in mind that the only items tracked were match outcomes and (I think) crit percentages, which involves less than 50% of the variables involved in gauntlet.
Also important to note, the only analysis done on that dataset was a non-contextual aggregate, which is just slightly above useless. If an aggregate was useful in determining local variables, it would have detected the frozen gauntleteer exploit, among other things, which it didn't.
Regardless, we shouldn't have to rely on player analysis. If this were a real casino, it would have some sort of independent testing. The real takeaway is that this game is a casino simulator... the purpose of a casino is for the house to win. Anyone who doesn't believe DB/TP hasn't biased game play mechanisms in their favor is naive.
Players need to understand that this IS a casino simulator. The devs are not going to fundamentally change it from that and make it "fair" or even "random". You either make peace with your not-quite-but-close gambling addiction or you stop playing the game.
To supply my own game result anecdote, I went through the last full faction event not failing a single shuttle. And I only failed one during the faction event of the current event. Sometimes you can get DBNG to work in your favor if you know what you're looking for (or stumble into accidentally and then analyze what you did). Perhaps the larger question is, does this really matter? Failing one, three, or even ten shuttles is very unlikely to prevent someone from achieving the rank they want in and of itself.
The burden is on the devs to justify this. All things considered, since they just purchased the platform from db, I really don’t think its too much to ask for a little more transparency. They are presently at a point in time where they can easily say “db did it this way, we fixed it” and be heroes. Is that really such a big thing to ask?
I mean, what would be the issue with having the correct shuttle success rates displayed? Faction events are already pay to win. How would it hurt peoples feelings if when shuttle success rate was 99%, they were likely to succeed 99% of the time? If you still want to justify the discrepancy between expected vs. observed outcomes, then you need to define the level at which those discrepancies would be unacceptable. For me, and others, the line has already been crossed. So to quote Picard, “The line must be drawn HERE! This far and no farther!” (Again, for me at least)
100% correct. As long as players will come onto technical issue forums and justify a broken mechanic, the devs will not fix it. Feel free to IM me when you get upset that they have pushed this concept into the aspects of the game that you care about. (It is likely that I will be on your side when this inevitably happens)
In the meantime can i politely ask that you don’t tell people to “accept” that there are broken mechanics in the aspects of the game that THEY care about? I didn’t see you posting in the thread about disabled purchases telling people “thats just how it is”. Consistency, please.
No argument about shuttle percentages. If there's a good, quick fix, then I'm all for it. It's not a priority for me, personally. So I think drawing a line is a bit dramatic.
I can't say that I agree even a little bit about gauntlet. I also don't like gauntlet and don't play regularly. But I've won plenty of gauntlets, so please don't mistake that for ignorance. It's just something that's not a priority.
I think it refers to the players who do spend the dilithium to keep a streak alive. I think there aren't a lot of forum people who do that. And the few who do, usually have some personal goal or mission. I don't know how heavily this factors in, but I chalk it up to observation bias and those who use this strategy get more than one round out of the dilithium.
Didn’t see anything in their original post about dilithium.
The first part of the post above implies that the devs have some system to try and get players to spend dilithium to keep streaks alive on those multiples of 3. No, it's not the OP's point, but these threads tend to branch in other directions after the initial post, including you, yourself, @Cpt_insano_2k1 mentioning dilithium in the following post:
So... You do kind of have to follow the thread to understand the inferences. It may not have been the OP's intention to go in such a direction, but... here we are. I've had a few threads get derailed in my day. Sometimes it's a pleasant surprise, sometimes it's frustrating. That's just life.