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Don't ya just love DB/TP "math"?

So as if failing TWO 99% missions within three hours of each other today wasn't enough, I then get treated to:

My 2 skills @25% vs. 1 skill @5% . DB "Math" at its finest.
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Comments

  • Drago MusevniDrago Musevni ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2020
    Indeed I'm hesitant to chalk it up to the RNG. I notice I'm able to "beat the odds" on things not in my favor like rolling the 1 percent out of 100 to fail a mission ... TWICE within 3 hours. Or losing with both a percentage and number-of-stats advantage in gauntlet. Yet when it comes to razor thin odds of winning gold crew from the Dabo wheel, I never have in my 3 years playing the game. And it's been months since any gauntlet crew has dropped for me. Notice how the RNG seems to be working correctly when it's something that could directly benefit the player. But when it's a hindrance , your chance of beating the odds goes through the roof.
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  • Drago MusevniDrago Musevni ✭✭✭✭
    and now a THIRD 99% failure, this is getting really old

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  • Drago MusevniDrago Musevni ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2020
    Oh I know how math works. And If the Timelines RNG was working like it should (i.e. accurate), I'd have a better chance of hitting the lottery in all 50 states on the same day than I would failing as many 90%+ shuttle missions as happens regularly in faction events. This event alone normal tolerances say that THREE 99% failures should occur with sending 300 shuttles. I've sent well under half that. In previous events I've had shuttles fail at 10x the accepted rate before. A 96%er that failed 4 times in 10 as opposed to 4 times in 100. Well above what "normal tolerances" and "random chance" would allow for. I ticketed it and had it escalated to a supervisor (who tows the same tired company line you just echoed). Devs know its broken, devs just don't care.
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  • Cpt_insano_2k1Cpt_insano_2k1 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Appreciate your thoughts Exanimus. It’s nice to see a player who understands the issue and present some logical reasoning.

    I get your point about the futility of complaining about these types of issues, especially in light of the “white knights” like we have in this thread, who can’t resist rushing to defend a broken system in a technical issue forum.

    I still think that at a minimum, the game devs could provide a bit more honesty with the displayed success rates of shuttles. Forced max difficulty aside, when the success rate says “99%” it should be a rarity to see it fail.

    I know of the patterns and cues you are describing in gauntlet, and yes, there are ways to “weather the storm”, but it should not be that way. The devs have built in countless ways to make players spend dilithium (i.e. real money). The concern that I have is that if issues such as the subject of this thread are not called out and corrected, they are likely to worsen and more predatory mechanisms are likely to be built in.
  • Cranky {§C} Cranky {§C} ✭✭✭✭✭
    Someone dig out the old study into gauntlet successes? It proved, with a pretty decent sample size, everything works as it is advertised.
  • Cpt_insano_2k1Cpt_insano_2k1 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2020
    Someone dig out the old study into gauntlet successes? It proved, with a pretty decent sample size, everything works as it is advertised.

    My sample size is playing gauntlet aggressively for 6 solid months, trying different strategies and observing results. In that same span of time I have been a big participant in faction events.

    I am not really interested in reviewing someone’s data. Numbers can easily be manipulated or even fabricated. It is abundantly clear that this forum has a bunch of people who support everything about this game, and aggressively attack any criticisms. I would question the legitimacy of any claims made by members of this forum that “everything is working just fine”, so lets not go down that road please.

    I trust my dataset because I know it to be untampered and unbiased. I consider it to be evidence enough of a problem which is why i am adding support to this OP’s thread.

    I am not here to duke it out with fanboys.

    I am here to express concern and ask for the devs to consider looking into this issue.
  • Cranky {§C} Cranky {§C} ✭✭✭✭✭
    I dont support everything TP does with the game. If you look over in the thread about game outages, I'm critical of how they treat 'internet issues' and always have been. Some can be a bit like that and I find it off putting too, but please don't tar all of us with the same brush.

    The study in question involved collecting results from lots of people, that's why I suggest it's a decent sample size. Whether you agree with the findings or not, I think you might find it interesting and if not, its still very relevant to the thread.
  • I dont support everything TP does with the game. If you look over in the thread about game outages, I'm critical of how they treat 'internet issues' and always have been. Some can be a bit like that and I find it off putting too, but please don't tar all of us with the same brush.

    The study in question involved collecting results from lots of people, that's why I suggest it's a decent sample size. Whether you agree with the findings or not, I think you might find it interesting and if not, its still very relevant to the thread.

    Yes, that study had a decent sample size, but that is the only positive thing it had going for it. It really doesn't matter how "good" or how big your data set is if you ask the wrong questions when gathering/analyzing it. Keep in mind that the only items tracked were match outcomes and (I think) crit percentages, which involves less than 50% of the variables involved in gauntlet.

    Also important to note, the only analysis done on that dataset was a non-contextual aggregate, which is just slightly above useless. If an aggregate was useful in determining local variables, it would have detected the frozen gauntleteer exploit, among other things, which it didn't.

    Regardless, we shouldn't have to rely on player analysis. If this were a real casino, it would have some sort of independent testing. The real takeaway is that this game is a casino simulator... the purpose of a casino is for the house to win. Anyone who doesn't believe DB/TP hasn't biased game play mechanisms in their favor is naive.

    Players need to understand that this IS a casino simulator. The devs are not going to fundamentally change it from that and make it "fair" or even "random". You either make peace with your not-quite-but-close gambling addiction or you stop playing the game.

    To supply my own game result anecdote, I went through the last full faction event not failing a single shuttle. And I only failed one during the faction event of the current event. Sometimes you can get DBNG to work in your favor if you know what you're looking for (or stumble into accidentally and then analyze what you did). Perhaps the larger question is, does this really matter? Failing one, three, or even ten shuttles is very unlikely to prevent someone from achieving the rank they want in and of itself.
  • Drago MusevniDrago Musevni ✭✭✭✭
    When you crit 4 times @45% against a 5% that doesn't crit, and -still- lose
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  • Drago MusevniDrago Musevni ✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2020
    When the roles are reversed and you STILL get beat. it's a "Heads they win, tails you lose" situation. Somehow I couldn't beat a 5% Armus 2 stats to 2 with -my- Surak at 45%. Yet fighting with my 2-stat Armus against a 1-stat Surak and suddenly -my opponent- crits enough to win. Things that make you go hmmmm.

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  • Bylo BandBylo Band ✭✭✭✭✭
    @Drago Musevni, are these serious comments or is this some elaborate parody/faux outrage?
  • Cpt_insano_2k1Cpt_insano_2k1 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2020
    I don’t think its necessary for players in this forum to come to a technical issue thread and defend a broken mechanic.

    The burden is on the devs to justify this. All things considered, since they just purchased the platform from db, I really don’t think its too much to ask for a little more transparency. They are presently at a point in time where they can easily say “db did it this way, we fixed it” and be heroes. Is that really such a big thing to ask?

    I mean, what would be the issue with having the correct shuttle success rates displayed? Faction events are already pay to win. How would it hurt peoples feelings if when shuttle success rate was 99%, they were likely to succeed 99% of the time? If you still want to justify the discrepancy between expected vs. observed outcomes, then you need to define the level at which those discrepancies would be unacceptable. For me, and others, the line has already been crossed. So to quote Picard, “The line must be drawn HERE! This far and no farther!” (Again, for me at least)
  • Cpt_insano_2k1Cpt_insano_2k1 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 2020
    Gauntlet is broken (rigged) for the house, always has been, always will be. Accept that and it gets better. Now, just as soon I as find the "required to play gauntlet" button I will turn it to "OFF"..... ;):D

    100% correct. As long as players will come onto technical issue forums and justify a broken mechanic, the devs will not fix it. Feel free to IM me when you get upset that they have pushed this concept into the aspects of the game that you care about. (It is likely that I will be on your side when this inevitably happens)

    In the meantime can i politely ask that you don’t tell people to “accept” that there are broken mechanics in the aspects of the game that THEY care about? I didn’t see you posting in the thread about disabled purchases telling people “thats just how it is”. Consistency, please.
  • Prime LorcaPrime Lorca ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don’t think its necessary for players in this forum to come to a technical issue thread and defend a broken mechanic.

    The burden is on the devs to justify this. All things considered, since they just purchased the platform from db, I really don’t think its too much to ask for a little more transparency. They are presently at a point in time where they can easily say “db did it this way, we fixed it” and be heroes. Is that really such a big thing to ask?

    I mean, what would be the issue with having the correct shuttle success rates displayed? Faction events are already pay to win. How would it hurt peoples feelings if when shuttle success rate was 99%, they were likely to succeed 99% of the time? If you still want to justify the discrepancy between expected vs. observed outcomes, then you need to define the level at which those discrepancies would be unacceptable. For me, and others, the line has already been crossed. So to quote Picard, “The line must be drawn HERE! This far and no farther!” (Again, for me at least)

    No argument about shuttle percentages. If there's a good, quick fix, then I'm all for it. It's not a priority for me, personally. So I think drawing a line is a bit dramatic.

    I can't say that I agree even a little bit about gauntlet. I also don't like gauntlet and don't play regularly. But I've won plenty of gauntlets, so please don't mistake that for ignorance. It's just something that's not a priority.
    Farewell 🖖
  • Could someone explain how "the house (TP) wins" in the gauntlet. The closest casino equivalent I can come up with is the free drinks. It's there to keep us in the game (doors) longer. The only way TP wins is if you spend dil, which is way more foolish than tipping Waitress Ezri everytime she brings you another free Martini.
  • Prime LorcaPrime Lorca ✭✭✭✭✭
    Could someone explain how "the house (TP) wins" in the gauntlet. The closest casino equivalent I can come up with is the free drinks. It's there to keep us in the game (doors) longer. The only way TP wins is if you spend dil, which is way more foolish than tipping Waitress Ezri everytime she brings you another free Martini.

    I think it refers to the players who do spend the dilithium to keep a streak alive. I think there aren't a lot of forum people who do that. And the few who do, usually have some personal goal or mission. I don't know how heavily this factors in, but I chalk it up to observation bias and those who use this strategy get more than one round out of the dilithium.
    Farewell 🖖
  • Cpt_insano_2k1Cpt_insano_2k1 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I’m pretty sure the OP’s intent was to express dissatisfaction with displayed shuttle success rate % and observed outcomes, as well as the gauntlet’s rng seeming to favor the opponent in critical moments.

    Didn’t see anything in their original post about dilithium.
  • Prime LorcaPrime Lorca ✭✭✭✭✭
    Exanimus wrote: »
    After recording every gauntlet outcome for 4 weeks I can confirm the OPs observations. I counted all wins and losses, no bias.

    The gauntlet behaves like a slot machine. The code will let you win more often when you are at a disadvantage as long as you are under 5 in a streak. Above a 5 when on a 6,9,12.. you are more likely to loose. At the 7,10,11.. you are more likely to win. Not only does the code low roll you on a third, and high roll you on a first, but there are cues to read in the points and generated opponents.
    Once you notice the cues you can use it to make better choices. For example, never trust in luck when a box is on the line. The game will intimidate you with a wall, but if you know how to read the points offered you may survive bad odds. It's pure math, no bias. The code is rigged to keep you gambling, just like any gambling machine. It feeds you wins to keep you interested and willing to take a big risk.

    I would complain, but why? They aren't going to change it. Most people think it's pure chance and what I said above is based on coincidence. The reality of a rigged system is that if it's gaming you, you can learn to game it. I have about 82% accuracy in predicting payout from the Dabo over the last two months.

    As for the shuttle missions, those haven't played well with statistics for patterns yet. Win and loss is definitely not what is displayed. Anyone who has chased a portal pack for a gold should be able to tell you how many times a one percent win/fail happens three times in a row. Shuttles are a joke. The fraction/shuttle system is perhaps the worst example of a rigged system in the game. Success drives up difficulty and offers nothing to the player to correct this. At the very least you might expect the ability to dial down difficulty at the sacrifice rare loot. The mechanics of it are created for the purpose of forcing failure. But the white knights will shout you down because it rigs factions in their favour. They have the crew to weather the false odds failures, and the forced max difficulty ensures newer crews fail more often anyway.

    I'm not suggesting people not complain or point out the casino odds. But it may be more effective to track the real odds to game the system back a bit. This game is basically a casino. And the people behind it will never be in a position care much what a few of us say.

    The first part of the post above implies that the devs have some system to try and get players to spend dilithium to keep streaks alive on those multiples of 3. No, it's not the OP's point, but these threads tend to branch in other directions after the initial post, including you, yourself, @Cpt_insano_2k1 mentioning dilithium in the following post:
    Appreciate your thoughts Exanimus. It’s nice to see a player who understands the issue and present some logical reasoning.

    I get your point about the futility of complaining about these types of issues, especially in light of the “white knights” like we have in this thread, who can’t resist rushing to defend a broken system in a technical issue forum.

    I still think that at a minimum, the game devs could provide a bit more honesty with the displayed success rates of shuttles. Forced max difficulty aside, when the success rate says “99%” it should be a rarity to see it fail.

    I know of the patterns and cues you are describing in gauntlet, and yes, there are ways to “weather the storm”, but it should not be that way. The devs have built in countless ways to make players spend dilithium (i.e. real money). The concern that I have is that if issues such as the subject of this thread are not called out and corrected, they are likely to worsen and more predatory mechanisms are likely to be built in.

    So... You do kind of have to follow the thread to understand the inferences. It may not have been the OP's intention to go in such a direction, but... here we are. I've had a few threads get derailed in my day. Sometimes it's a pleasant surprise, sometimes it's frustrating. That's just life.
    Farewell 🖖
  • Cpt_insano_2k1Cpt_insano_2k1 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Point taken @Prime Lorca [10FH] just trying to keep the thread on track for the primary complaint.
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