@Cpt_insano_2k1 Do you know if you used shared crew regularly on those 95% shuttles?
I've heard anecdotal evidence that squad shares can produce unexpected fails.
Yes, the 95% shuttle was a squad share shuttle. That might be interesting to rigorously test.....
Additionally, I'm not sure if there is a reliable answer to this, do we know if the displayed expected success rate is calculated the same as the actual success rate in case of "AND" shuttle seats?
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
However, since I do not record results generally and am acutely aware of the tendency to ignore normal and unexpected positive results while disproportionately paying attention to negative results, whether expected or unexpected, I do not trust my gut here.
@Cpt_insano_2k1 Do you know if you used shared crew regularly on those 95% shuttles?
I've heard anecdotal evidence that squad shares can produce unexpected fails.
Yes, the 95% shuttle was a squad share shuttle. That might be interesting to rigorously test.....
Additionally, I'm not sure if there is a reliable answer to this, do we know if the displayed expected success rate is calculated the same as the actual success rate in case of "AND" shuttle seats?
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
However, since I do not record results generally and am acutely aware of the tendency to ignore normal and unexpected positive results while disproportionately paying attention to negative results, whether expected or unexpected, I do not trust my gut here.
Right, good question and one that i would like to answer by way of further testing. From what I understand, this was possibly identified as a “bug” in the past, but if actual success is calculated differently than expected success for “and” shuttle missions, this could easily explain why failure rates appear to be higher than expected at times.
@Cpt_insano_2k1 Do you know if you used shared crew regularly on those 95% shuttles?
I've heard anecdotal evidence that squad shares can produce unexpected fails.
Yes, the 95% shuttle was a squad share shuttle. That might be interesting to rigorously test.....
Additionally, I'm not sure if there is a reliable answer to this, do we know if the displayed expected success rate is calculated the same as the actual success rate in case of "AND" shuttle seats?
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
However, since I do not record results generally and am acutely aware of the tendency to ignore normal and unexpected positive results while disproportionately paying attention to negative results, whether expected or unexpected, I do not trust my gut here.
The community tested that one to death both before and after the fix for the AND bug was applied. More data collection never hurts, but the consensus is that the AND bug is no longer a problem even for re-run/flashback events from before the fix. It would be interesting to see if it perhaps comes back for shared crew for some reason. I’d offer to help with this but my squad doesn’t even discuss the share options I list, so getting data out of them might be a challenge.
@Cpt_insano_2k1 Do you know if you used shared crew regularly on those 95% shuttles?
I've heard anecdotal evidence that squad shares can produce unexpected fails.
Yes, the 95% shuttle was a squad share shuttle. That might be interesting to rigorously test.....
Additionally, I'm not sure if there is a reliable answer to this, do we know if the displayed expected success rate is calculated the same as the actual success rate in case of "AND" shuttle seats?
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
However, since I do not record results generally and am acutely aware of the tendency to ignore normal and unexpected positive results while disproportionately paying attention to negative results, whether expected or unexpected, I do not trust my gut here.
The community tested that one to death both before and after the fix for the AND bug was applied. More data collection never hurts, but the consensus is that the AND bug is no longer a problem even for re-run/flashback events from before the fix. It would be interesting to see if it perhaps comes back for shared crew for some reason. I’d offer to help with this but my squad doesn’t even discuss the share options I list, so getting data out of them might be a challenge.
I usually force encourage someone in my squadron to post the share. I feel that I contribute more to the team by time boosting the share. Actually, I even stepped aside and let someone else be squadron leader. It frees up more time for admiralling.
@Cpt_insano_2k1 Do you know if you used shared crew regularly on those 95% shuttles?
I've heard anecdotal evidence that squad shares can produce unexpected fails.
Yes, the 95% shuttle was a squad share shuttle. That might be interesting to rigorously test.....
Additionally, I'm not sure if there is a reliable answer to this, do we know if the displayed expected success rate is calculated the same as the actual success rate in case of "AND" shuttle seats?
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
However, since I do not record results generally and am acutely aware of the tendency to ignore normal and unexpected positive results while disproportionately paying attention to negative results, whether expected or unexpected, I do not trust my gut here.
The community tested that one to death both before and after the fix for the AND bug was applied. More data collection never hurts, but the consensus is that the AND bug is no longer a problem even for re-run/flashback events from before the fix. It would be interesting to see if it perhaps comes back for shared crew for some reason. I’d offer to help with this but my squad doesn’t even discuss the share options I list, so getting data out of them might be a challenge.
Good to know. The testing was definitely prior to my time playing timelines.
Whether its a bug related to “and” shuttles or something else entirely, i am interested in determining why, at times, it has seemed as though shuttles are performing worse than their projected success.
@Cpt_insano_2k1 Do you know if you used shared crew regularly on those 95% shuttles?
I've heard anecdotal evidence that squad shares can produce unexpected fails.
Yes, the 95% shuttle was a squad share shuttle. That might be interesting to rigorously test.....
Additionally, I'm not sure if there is a reliable answer to this, do we know if the displayed expected success rate is calculated the same as the actual success rate in case of "AND" shuttle seats?
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
However, since I do not record results generally and am acutely aware of the tendency to ignore normal and unexpected positive results while disproportionately paying attention to negative results, whether expected or unexpected, I do not trust my gut here.
The community tested that one to death both before and after the fix for the AND bug was applied. More data collection never hurts, but the consensus is that the AND bug is no longer a problem even for re-run/flashback events from before the fix. It would be interesting to see if it perhaps comes back for shared crew for some reason. I’d offer to help with this but my squad doesn’t even discuss the share options I list, so getting data out of them might be a challenge.
Good to know. The testing was definitely prior to my time playing timelines.
Whether its a bug related to “and” shuttles or something else entirely, i am interested in determining why, at times, it has seemed as though shuttles are performing worse than their projected success.
I see that you joined the forum earlier this month. How long have you actually been playing the game?
@Cpt_insano_2k1 Do you know if you used shared crew regularly on those 95% shuttles?
I've heard anecdotal evidence that squad shares can produce unexpected fails.
Yes, the 95% shuttle was a squad share shuttle. That might be interesting to rigorously test.....
Additionally, I'm not sure if there is a reliable answer to this, do we know if the displayed expected success rate is calculated the same as the actual success rate in case of "AND" shuttle seats?
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
However, since I do not record results generally and am acutely aware of the tendency to ignore normal and unexpected positive results while disproportionately paying attention to negative results, whether expected or unexpected, I do not trust my gut here.
The community tested that one to death both before and after the fix for the AND bug was applied. More data collection never hurts, but the consensus is that the AND bug is no longer a problem even for re-run/flashback events from before the fix. It would be interesting to see if it perhaps comes back for shared crew for some reason. I’d offer to help with this but my squad doesn’t even discuss the share options I list, so getting data out of them might be a challenge.
Yeah this lines up with my understanding of the AND bug.
Next Faction, I'll see if I can get someone else to squad lead upon and hopefully join in the testing.
@Cpt_insano_2k1 Do you know if you used shared crew regularly on those 95% shuttles?
I've heard anecdotal evidence that squad shares can produce unexpected fails.
Yes, the 95% shuttle was a squad share shuttle. That might be interesting to rigorously test.....
Additionally, I'm not sure if there is a reliable answer to this, do we know if the displayed expected success rate is calculated the same as the actual success rate in case of "AND" shuttle seats?
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
However, since I do not record results generally and am acutely aware of the tendency to ignore normal and unexpected positive results while disproportionately paying attention to negative results, whether expected or unexpected, I do not trust my gut here.
The community tested that one to death both before and after the fix for the AND bug was applied. More data collection never hurts, but the consensus is that the AND bug is no longer a problem even for re-run/flashback events from before the fix. It would be interesting to see if it perhaps comes back for shared crew for some reason. I’d offer to help with this but my squad doesn’t even discuss the share options I list, so getting data out of them might be a challenge.
Good to know. The testing was definitely prior to my time playing timelines.
Whether its a bug related to “and” shuttles or something else entirely, i am interested in determining why, at times, it has seemed as though shuttles are performing worse than their projected success.
I see that you joined the forum earlier this month. How long have you actually been playing the game?
@Cpt_insano_2k1 Do you know if you used shared crew regularly on those 95% shuttles?
I've heard anecdotal evidence that squad shares can produce unexpected fails.
Yes, the 95% shuttle was a squad share shuttle. That might be interesting to rigorously test.....
Additionally, I'm not sure if there is a reliable answer to this, do we know if the displayed expected success rate is calculated the same as the actual success rate in case of "AND" shuttle seats?
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
However, since I do not record results generally and am acutely aware of the tendency to ignore normal and unexpected positive results while disproportionately paying attention to negative results, whether expected or unexpected, I do not trust my gut here.
The community tested that one to death both before and after the fix for the AND bug was applied. More data collection never hurts, but the consensus is that the AND bug is no longer a problem even for re-run/flashback events from before the fix. It would be interesting to see if it perhaps comes back for shared crew for some reason. I’d offer to help with this but my squad doesn’t even discuss the share options I list, so getting data out of them might be a challenge.
Good to know. The testing was definitely prior to my time playing timelines.
Whether its a bug related to “and” shuttles or something else entirely, i am interested in determining why, at times, it has seemed as though shuttles are performing worse than their projected success.
I see that you joined the forum earlier this month. How long have you actually been playing the game?
A little over a year
Cool. I think at that point, I was starting to develop my end game roster. Does that sound about like where you're at?
@Cpt_insano_2k1 Do you know if you used shared crew regularly on those 95% shuttles?
I've heard anecdotal evidence that squad shares can produce unexpected fails.
Yes, the 95% shuttle was a squad share shuttle. That might be interesting to rigorously test.....
Additionally, I'm not sure if there is a reliable answer to this, do we know if the displayed expected success rate is calculated the same as the actual success rate in case of "AND" shuttle seats?
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
However, since I do not record results generally and am acutely aware of the tendency to ignore normal and unexpected positive results while disproportionately paying attention to negative results, whether expected or unexpected, I do not trust my gut here.
The community tested that one to death both before and after the fix for the AND bug was applied. More data collection never hurts, but the consensus is that the AND bug is no longer a problem even for re-run/flashback events from before the fix. It would be interesting to see if it perhaps comes back for shared crew for some reason. I’d offer to help with this but my squad doesn’t even discuss the share options I list, so getting data out of them might be a challenge.
Good to know. The testing was definitely prior to my time playing timelines.
Whether its a bug related to “and” shuttles or something else entirely, i am interested in determining why, at times, it has seemed as though shuttles are performing worse than their projected success.
I see that you joined the forum earlier this month. How long have you actually been playing the game?
A little over a year
Cool. I think at that point, I was starting to develop my end game roster. Does that sound about like where you're at?
Yes, typically 10hr voyages every time even during faction events. The christmas and convergence day sales really propped me up
@Cpt_insano_2k1 Do you know if you used shared crew regularly on those 95% shuttles?
I've heard anecdotal evidence that squad shares can produce unexpected fails.
Yes, the 95% shuttle was a squad share shuttle. That might be interesting to rigorously test.....
Additionally, I'm not sure if there is a reliable answer to this, do we know if the displayed expected success rate is calculated the same as the actual success rate in case of "AND" shuttle seats?
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
However, since I do not record results generally and am acutely aware of the tendency to ignore normal and unexpected positive results while disproportionately paying attention to negative results, whether expected or unexpected, I do not trust my gut here.
The community tested that one to death both before and after the fix for the AND bug was applied. More data collection never hurts, but the consensus is that the AND bug is no longer a problem even for re-run/flashback events from before the fix. It would be interesting to see if it perhaps comes back for shared crew for some reason. I’d offer to help with this but my squad doesn’t even discuss the share options I list, so getting data out of them might be a challenge.
Good to know. The testing was definitely prior to my time playing timelines.
Whether its a bug related to “and” shuttles or something else entirely, i am interested in determining why, at times, it has seemed as though shuttles are performing worse than their projected success.
I see that you joined the forum earlier this month. How long have you actually been playing the game?
A little over a year
Cool. I think at that point, I was starting to develop my end game roster. Does that sound about like where you're at?
Yes, typically 10hr voyages every time even during faction events. The christmas and convergence day sales really propped me up
You're doing better than I was. I don't think I was hitting 10 hours during events.
Been doing math (it is NOT plural, folks!) for decades, and there are definite patterns and probability sequences that should hold true if, in fact, the RNG was a true RNG. Two years ago, I started seriously playing the Gauntlet. In the first 6 months, hit Armus 6 times, and nabbed a Guinan. In the following 6 months, nabbed a second Guinan, another Armus and a Caretaker (on a 3-sequence win run!). In the past 12 months, hit my 3rd Guinan. I have played over 15,200 rounds, generally placing in the top 20 (best is #5). I have had final rewards where you get 7 "medium" chests, and they give 3 and 4 star goodies; when I hit that #5 win, all rewards were 2 star or less. Now, I don't expect all the games to be like the first 6 months, but I have not had ANY Gauntlet crew rewards in the past 8 months!
Not sure why it's been dry for so long; my plan is to continue to play daily and by the end of the year, hit 20K rounds and grab my Locutus. Maybe they can change the way the game wins work during long streaks and/or final rank win levels so that the higher you go, you are guaranteed a minimum level of loot. For example, after a 9-streak, you know you'll never get less than a 3* item; after 15, maybe a 4* minimum (you get the idea). When end in the top 30, those reward chests shouldn't give you less than 3*, and top 5 should be 4* or better. You should also be able to get random crew, and if you have a top 10 finish, the best odds to nab a Gauntlet crew or maybe a behold /begold.
But right now, the odds, stats and rewards are meaningless. I've lost big when I take my fresh Caretaker (at 25%, big numbers in two stats ready) against a single-stat 5% Donatra at 1/2 my points; I've also won the other way, when I decide I just want to bump up my game play counter and toss my 4-played Guinan (who's down to about 200pts) against a fresh Caretaker - and manage to win! I was thinking "ah, there's NO WAY she'd win" - but she did.
Maybe it's rigged, maybe it's just crappy code,but what would help is if you could see your % Chance of winning when you select your crew against another, before you click on battle start. Then we could make our own logs of percentage wins and do independent analysis. For example, over a period of 3 months, I could have played 1500 games, and based on that set, 1000 were played with a win chance between 60%-70%. The expected win count would be between 600-700; if my actual wins were 450, that means that there was a significant statistical difference between expected and actual outcome. Either the win calculator would be faulty, or the game's RNG isn't really random. We can't do that now, but it would definitely help all of us statisticians to be able to track that in the future.
Been doing math (it is NOT plural, folks!) for decades
So, I know almost nothing about math, but I do know a wee bit about words. Maths is indeed the common word among British, Irish, and Australian speakers. The general belief, as I recall, is that it has an 's' at the end because 'mathematics' has an 's' at the end. So, no, it's not plural, but both forms of the word are correct, depending on where you're from.
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing. ~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
Although later posts indicate that this was tested by the community post-fix, I'm still suspicious of this one, and try to pick a card with higherskill-lowerskill in the same order as the AND requirement.
Gauntlet seems random to me, except the paranoid side of believes a 5% Locutus will crit against you much more often than he should. Same with Mirror Phlox.
Having neither the math skills nor the recorded data, I don't have any particular dog to bark in this argument, except to scoff and shake my head at the many sage advisers coming down from their mountaintop monasteries and deigning to counsel all herein against complaining or criticizing any aspect of any functions of the game that is the very subject of the forum.
"My child, tarry not in the fields of the feedback, but instead go forth from this place, chastened by my calm yet condescending and smarmy version of 'nothing to see here'."
What compels the nannies to mete out punishment so? Who can say. But there's a humorous irony in their spending so much time in a feedback forum telling others not to waste their time in a feedback forum.
Gauntlet is broken (rigged) for the house, always has been, always will be. Accept that and it gets better. Now, just as soon I as find the "required to play gauntlet" button I will turn it to "OFF".....
Comments
Yes, the 95% shuttle was a squad share shuttle. That might be interesting to rigorously test.....
Additionally, I'm not sure if there is a reliable answer to this, do we know if the displayed expected success rate is calculated the same as the actual success rate in case of "AND" shuttle seats?
(I've read, and suspect it still holds true, that the displayed success expectation is calculated by higher skill + 1/4 lower skill while the actual success is determined by 1st skill + 1/4 2nd skill) - at least I get that impression.
However, since I do not record results generally and am acutely aware of the tendency to ignore normal and unexpected positive results while disproportionately paying attention to negative results, whether expected or unexpected, I do not trust my gut here.
Right, good question and one that i would like to answer by way of further testing. From what I understand, this was possibly identified as a “bug” in the past, but if actual success is calculated differently than expected success for “and” shuttle missions, this could easily explain why failure rates appear to be higher than expected at times.
The community tested that one to death both before and after the fix for the AND bug was applied. More data collection never hurts, but the consensus is that the AND bug is no longer a problem even for re-run/flashback events from before the fix. It would be interesting to see if it perhaps comes back for shared crew for some reason. I’d offer to help with this but my squad doesn’t even discuss the share options I list, so getting data out of them might be a challenge.
I usually force encourage someone in my squadron to post the share. I feel that I contribute more to the team by time boosting the share. Actually, I even stepped aside and let someone else be squadron leader. It frees up more time for admiralling.
Good to know. The testing was definitely prior to my time playing timelines.
Whether its a bug related to “and” shuttles or something else entirely, i am interested in determining why, at times, it has seemed as though shuttles are performing worse than their projected success.
I see that you joined the forum earlier this month. How long have you actually been playing the game?
Yeah this lines up with my understanding of the AND bug.
Next Faction, I'll see if I can get someone else to squad lead upon and hopefully join in the testing.
A little over a year
Cool. I think at that point, I was starting to develop my end game roster. Does that sound about like where you're at?
Yes, typically 10hr voyages every time even during faction events. The christmas and convergence day sales really propped me up
You're doing better than I was. I don't think I was hitting 10 hours during events.
Not sure why it's been dry for so long; my plan is to continue to play daily and by the end of the year, hit 20K rounds and grab my Locutus. Maybe they can change the way the game wins work during long streaks and/or final rank win levels so that the higher you go, you are guaranteed a minimum level of loot. For example, after a 9-streak, you know you'll never get less than a 3* item; after 15, maybe a 4* minimum (you get the idea). When end in the top 30, those reward chests shouldn't give you less than 3*, and top 5 should be 4* or better. You should also be able to get random crew, and if you have a top 10 finish, the best odds to nab a Gauntlet crew or maybe a behold /begold.
But right now, the odds, stats and rewards are meaningless. I've lost big when I take my fresh Caretaker (at 25%, big numbers in two stats ready) against a single-stat 5% Donatra at 1/2 my points; I've also won the other way, when I decide I just want to bump up my game play counter and toss my 4-played Guinan (who's down to about 200pts) against a fresh Caretaker - and manage to win! I was thinking "ah, there's NO WAY she'd win" - but she did.
Maybe it's rigged, maybe it's just crappy code,but what would help is if you could see your % Chance of winning when you select your crew against another, before you click on battle start. Then we could make our own logs of percentage wins and do independent analysis. For example, over a period of 3 months, I could have played 1500 games, and based on that set, 1000 were played with a win chance between 60%-70%. The expected win count would be between 600-700; if my actual wins were 450, that means that there was a significant statistical difference between expected and actual outcome. Either the win calculator would be faulty, or the game's RNG isn't really random. We can't do that now, but it would definitely help all of us statisticians to be able to track that in the future.
But, hey, who said life had to be fair, right?
So, I know almost nothing about math, but I do know a wee bit about words. Maths is indeed the common word among British, Irish, and Australian speakers. The general belief, as I recall, is that it has an 's' at the end because 'mathematics' has an 's' at the end. So, no, it's not plural, but both forms of the word are correct, depending on where you're from.
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing.
~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
Although later posts indicate that this was tested by the community post-fix, I'm still suspicious of this one, and try to pick a card with higherskill-lowerskill in the same order as the AND requirement.
Gauntlet seems random to me, except the paranoid side of believes a 5% Locutus will crit against you much more often than he should. Same with Mirror Phlox.
Its not a bug.. its a feature.
"My child, tarry not in the fields of the feedback, but instead go forth from this place, chastened by my calm yet condescending and smarmy version of 'nothing to see here'."
What compels the nannies to mete out punishment so? Who can say. But there's a humorous irony in their spending so much time in a feedback forum telling others not to waste their time in a feedback forum.
ouch rough day for you i see
dont give them ideas nomad lol