This weeks faction part a nightmare even for DB standards
IIort
✭
in The Bridge
Hi,
lets be honest: except for the fanatics out there we all know that the shuttle percentages, especially during faction events, are nothing but a bunch of hooey. But this weeks was even for DB standards the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen in my life.
Usually I can reach the 3500 VP/mission at least temporarily then fall back and reach it again at some point. This week, although my crew is MUCH better than last weeks and I got much higher percentages, the success chance was so crappy that even a lottery jackpot seems almost more likely than this. As I mentioned in a previous post I failed seven shuttles in a row that all had percentages beyond 90%, one of those had 99% and another 97%. The whole 2 days I was not able to go beyond 1200 (I think one time was 1500) and was mostly moving between 800 and 1200...almost no mission showed a percentage below 90% (I think 84% was the lowest). Every week I think that the things I observe are beyond anything that should reasonably happen, but every week they happen again.
But what I experienced this week is so bizarre, that I ask myself if DB now starting to not even care to somewhat hide how they screwing with their players.
My question is, if any of you had similar experiences this week. Not if you had bad luck, or if it is as bad as it always was, but if you too observed a display so grotesque that you seriously questioned if the laws of probability are still valid.
lets be honest: except for the fanatics out there we all know that the shuttle percentages, especially during faction events, are nothing but a bunch of hooey. But this weeks was even for DB standards the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen in my life.
Usually I can reach the 3500 VP/mission at least temporarily then fall back and reach it again at some point. This week, although my crew is MUCH better than last weeks and I got much higher percentages, the success chance was so crappy that even a lottery jackpot seems almost more likely than this. As I mentioned in a previous post I failed seven shuttles in a row that all had percentages beyond 90%, one of those had 99% and another 97%. The whole 2 days I was not able to go beyond 1200 (I think one time was 1500) and was mostly moving between 800 and 1200...almost no mission showed a percentage below 90% (I think 84% was the lowest). Every week I think that the things I observe are beyond anything that should reasonably happen, but every week they happen again.
But what I experienced this week is so bizarre, that I ask myself if DB now starting to not even care to somewhat hide how they screwing with their players.
My question is, if any of you had similar experiences this week. Not if you had bad luck, or if it is as bad as it always was, but if you too observed a display so grotesque that you seriously questioned if the laws of probability are still valid.
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Comments
This event decent returns mostly 3/4 some 2/4. Hit 4k Friday morning. That's the big difference. Not that you fail but when you fail and failing multiple times in a row.
Last week, I ran 78 3-hour shuttles that averaged 81.5. My success rate was 70.5.
During the Shore Leave event in March, I ran 47 3-hour shuttles averaging 73, but my success rate was 76.6.
I'm going to try to keep more consistent records going forward.
Timelines Crew Cost Viewer
if I were you, I would have bought lottery tickets... then I can spend $100k to buy tons of dillithium
Current results (excerpt):
- 396 send shuttles
- Average displayed success rate: 81,7%
- Actual average success rate: 80,6% (two-sided 95% confidence interval: 76,7% to 84,5%)
And the data for the current event: 77 shuttles with an displayed average success rate of 81,9%. The actual success rate was 84,4%, just slightly better.
tl;dr: The displayed success rates are not off.
sooo...the players that had average DSR over 70% but the actual ASR was around 50% are either liars or, what?
I know, you can't help yourself defending a system that works FOR YOU...
I considered doing the same thing, but are too lazy to do so, since I am on the road a lot. I did it once for the percentages in an galaxy event and percentages were off there, but it was in the realm of possibility...
...well, if you are stuck between 800 and 1200 with percentages above 90, the percentages are off!
The only reason I collect the data is that I once had the impression the success rates were off. But after doing my homework I have found no evidence for that.
last 3 faction events, including this one, i got only 4 times a 4/4 successful return. the DSR ranged between 55% and 92%, never dropped below 55%. The most prevalent outcome was 2/4, then 1/4 and lastly 3/4.
4 shuttles, never missed a run except for night time.
.. This isn't .. data. Data would be: I ran zaz shuttles with an average return of foo, and got bar.
That said, I think I should track the next few faction events and see what I get.
It's why while I felt the odds I got back weren't wrong, I don't think I'd trust my own data. (Also, it's only ~15 shuttles, far too low to be significant.) If you really want to prove your case, you'd need to be able to point to all of your runs.
this is much more relevant data as opposed to "they work as they should"
and, i'm curious, what would you call "data" since you don't have access to the RNG algorithm?
you mean the shuttles that say 99%, are actually more than 99%, but still fail?
You test a pRNG by results, in any case.
second, just as you can claim that i may not be remembering correctly and may be biased, so can i claim that your numbers are false...to prove that you have to provide the records (screenshots with verifiable dates and hours etc).
third, where do you get the seed number for the pRNG?
1. Yes, yes it does.
2. I am not holding myself to a higher standard than you held yourself. You said "the odds ranged " with x/x shuttles, but you didn't really get precise. Had you provided say, "I ran 112 shuttles, with an average success rate of 69%, and got 58%." I can do *something* with that, such as calc the significance. (I think.)
Besides, if I do this, I'll probably have a spreadsheet so you can follow my math. And I think I will since next week is faction-galaxy again, if I don't miss my guess.
3. In a properly configured pRNG , it's irrelevant. You don't need to care about that until you've determined it's failed (from our end - a dev would look at it differently!)
2. 320 shuttles - average DSR 78% - actual ASR 50%
3. you do need it. the results are quite different if the percentage is calculated in the 1000, 10000, 100000, 1000000 and so on. without the base number you're just guesstimating.
so I wish you good luck!
As a comparison, every shuttle event I feel that I'm getting cheated with an abundance of failed missions. However, the last event I could do no wrong passing 4000VP missions with 38-55% chance. I came 6,000VP from the 250k merit reward. This event, I tracked each mission (I used to do this but stopped since it takes so much time). I was failing 70-80% chance missions and just could not get higher than the 2250VP. When phase 1 was over, I calculated the pass/fail ratio. I ran 79 missions, the average success chance was 84%. I passed 62 and failed 17 which is a 78.5% success rate. So for some reason this event was under the expected rate, but without even tracking the last event, I know I was over the expected rate. I can't say the events are rigged to fail, but if I wasn't tracking the numbers, I sure would feel that way.
That is another suspicion I have...I am a low payer, I even am reluctant to pay for month cards and do that only once in two month or so. I know that some people pay ridiculous amounts of money. I could imagine that displayed chances are much closer for high payers than for low payers. Think about it, if they could screw with us or certain players however they want for whatever reason they want, and nobody will ever be able to prove that, since they do not publish their source code. Does a company that charges $100 for a damn 1/5 crew (and find people actually paying those rates) would really be honest enough to tell the truth about what they are displaying, or would they tweak and cheat and screw every way they can to squeeze the most amount of money out of their player base (just think about how many people must have paid dilithium to save a voyage that has failed because of a display bug)?
Call me crazy, but those dudes are not passionate about what they are doing (otherwise they would offer a well thought through game and not a bug infested one), it's simply a money draining machine.
That's the point. You are supposed to have event crew. It's really the only time when characters like 4* Janeway are worth bringing out of the freezer.
The Galaxy portion is proving to be somewhat more competitive. Guess everyone's got lots of surplus chrons and loot from voyages. I don't recall ever seeing the community 10 pack getting hit so quickly.