Four fails? At 65% plus each? I shouldn't leave my house by that probability

FEwe2

I could be hit by a car or bus. Frozen excrement could hit me from a plane. I should buy a lottery ticket and revel in my millions.

This isn't simple RNG. There is a problem with event faction missions and it needs to be dealt with.

I've had normal results all week for NORMAL MISSION'S. As soon as I'm bothering with an event this £#_& starts to happen again. WTF?

It's not just bad luck. Every faction event for the last couple of months has had this BS to contend with.

WTF is going on with your calculations?

FEwe2

Lol 'B no space S' gets translated to 'chocolate cronut'

Zetterbeard

I honestly can't tell if this is satire.

FEwe2

I know I'm ranting against RNG. I know how maths works... but still...

One of those was 90%+ , one at 85%, the last two at 65% plus.

4 fails? If it was just this once I could accept this... but the last couple of events have had the same 'weirdness', but maybe not this extreme.

Capt. Chaos

This probably isn't helpful, but I wouldn't even bother sending out a 65% event shuttle.

Zombie Squirrel

You are new to the game? No, then everything is as usual. A mess.

<TGE> Clifford

The odds of losing those four is still better than the odds of winning the powerball, so I’d say you’re safe to leave the house.

[10F] Belle'Anna

Capt. Chaos wrote: »

This probably isn't helpful, but I wouldn't even bother sending out a 65% event shuttle.

Oh dear. Mine are going out at 72/67/67/66 with boosts. A bit close to the cut-off point don't you think?

On the other hand, some of us don't have a lot of choices, event crew being what they are, and a 66% - theoretically - is still a better than 50/50 chance, plus you get VP even if it fails.

It will be interesting to see what my overall success rates are. Last event I only failed 3 shuttles - that's extraordinary luck - so I won't be surprised if I don't do so well in this one.

Ivanstone

I've been sending out 90 min shuttles with a 3/4 success rate despite an 80% average. Then the game decided I needed some variety by giving me 1/4 successes on my last set. DB is clearly out to get me. When I get home I'll crack out the tin foil, make a pirate hat out of it and that should insulate me from further failures.

Astrometrics

FEwe2 wrote: »

I know I'm ranting against RNG. I know how maths works... but still...

One of those was 90%+ , one at 85%, the last two at 65% plus.

For reference, this "extreme" result is valued to one chance in 610, or 0.13%. It is low, but let's put into perspective.

With a playerbase estimated in the tens of thousands, there's probably going to be hundreds of players who have experienced the same as you have by the end of the event (because, of course, each batch of four shuttles carries the chance of ending like this).

This is not "extreme" in any way. It's a thing expected to happen to hundreds of players during an event. The unusual thing would be if this rare event didn't happen at all.

The only way you are special is, of course, that you have opened a thread to lament your woes, while those other hundreds of players haven't.

Magisse

I'd recommend leaving the house anyway. Not good to be boarded up, just playing STT all day. Get out, get some sunshine. It's good for you.

Davey1983

This is why people should learn statistics. Your result is in no way extreme. The fact you equated this result to winning the lottery makes me concerned about the education system.

Peachtree Rex

Maybe use the existing front page thread on the subject in the future:
https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/3467/do-they-understand-what-95-chance-to-succeed-actually-means#latest

Knight Ranger

Capt. Chaos wrote: »

This probably isn't helpful, but I wouldn't even bother sending out a 65% event shuttle.

My alt acct isn't even getting 50%. The last four shuttles went away with varying percentages in the 40s and 30s. Though to be fair, I haven't played my alt consistently so the crew are still a bit meh.

(KM) Yojimbo

FEwe2 wrote: »

I know I'm ranting against RNG. I know how maths works... but still...

One of those was 90%+ , one at 85%, the last two at 65% plus.

4 fails? If it was just this once I could accept this... but the last couple of events have had the same 'weirdness', but maybe not this extreme.

That's nothing. I've had 4 fails on 88%+ success chance. I've had 7 in row fail on 80%+. etc...

[Deleted User]

It still fascinates me that some players actually have the resources (mainly time) to own "alternate accounts".

I have trouble maintaining one!

[TFA] CaptainObvious

[ING:ENL] OsirisSonOfGeb wrote: »

It still fascinates me that some players actually have the resources (mainly time) to own "alternate accounts".

I have trouble maintaining one!

This has always baffled me as well. I've maintained alts in other games before, but the interaction between the two always provided a mutual benefit. In STT, it only takes away time you could spend on your main. Plus, I would imagine it to be extremely frustrating receiving the Gauntlet exclusive or having better portal luck on an alt and not on the main.

Hunter247

Astrometrics wrote: »

FEwe2 wrote: »

I know I'm ranting against RNG. I know how maths works... but still...

One of those was 90%+ , one at 85%, the last two at 65% plus.

For reference, this "extreme" result is valued to one chance in 610, or 0.13%. It is low, but let's put into perspective.

With a playerbase estimated in the tens of thousands, there's probably going to be hundreds of players who have experienced the same as you have by the end of the event (because, of course, each batch of four shuttles carries the chance of ending like this).

This is not "extreme" in any way. It's a thing expected to happen to hundreds of players during an event. The unusual thing would be if this rare event didn't happen at all.

The only way you are special is, of course, that you have opened a thread to lament your woes, while those other hundreds of players haven't.

That was my thought as well. This is just bad luck IMO. In a previous event I failed three shuttles out of three with a 99% success rate (which is literally a million to one against) twice in three attempts

That was unlikely - this is unfortunate luck.

Crazy Leo

last event, during the kickstart I sent out 14 shuttles at 99% and failed 7 of them. I swore at my phone, and chalked it up to bad luck. The event before I didn't fail a single shuttle so at least it goes both ways.

NivenFres

Crazy Leo wrote: »

last event, during the kickstart I sent out 14 shuttles at 99% and failed 7 of them. I swore at my phone, and chalked it up to bad luck. The event before I didn't fail a single shuttle so at least it goes both ways.

Bingo. I've had both too. Those ones where you just can't seen to get any traction at all. And others where you can't seem to fail if you try.

[edit]
Corrected a can to a can't - completely changes the meaning

prometheus1701

you think thats bad? try running around with 19 evasion on and constantly dying to people with no accuracy at all

[RR] Redbeard

prometheus1701 wrote: »

you think thats bad? try running around with 19 evasion on and constantly dying to people with no accuracy at all

The only real evasion is a cloak.

Astrometrics

[RR] Redbeard wrote: »

prometheus1701 wrote: »

you think thats bad? try running around with 19 evasion on and constantly dying to people with no accuracy at all

The only real evasion is a cloak.

The only real evasion is not actually being there.

Dralix

RennJaxo

Meh, I just failed two missions that were both above 95%. Just DB being **tsk tsk**, as usual. The sun rises, the sun sets, DB delivers an inferior product. Ya learn ta live with it.

Wesley M Clarke

I have seen a boat load of 5 seater shuttle in mine, had to run them, as I only have a few runs for each of these factions, I am barely attempting this even so I am less bothered by it, but I have never had such a poor run, just glad I have a large enough crew to at least fill the shuttle

Jean-Luc Kenobi

I'm not keeping detailed stats like you guys. But the past two faction events have been brutal. Prior to this I had no problems keeping myself in the 3500-4000k range throughout the event. Last past 2 events I have a hard time keeping myself even in the 2750 slot.

This event I had 50k+ points when I went to sleep on Thursday. I had 80k+ when I went to bed last night. I spent most of the of day in the 4k on Thursday, I did drop down to 3500 once but quickly went back to 4k. Yesterday I just kept failing my way down until I was between 2250 and 2750 throughout the day. Currently i'm at the 2250 range and most of my shuttles have been 80%+ range. I'll admit my crew is not the strongest to have 95% every shuttle I've sent but I've never failed as much as I have these past couple of events

Secret Journey

Try this for comedy...my free account is sending out shuttles with 2* cards at 20%-30% success rates...both come back successful regularly.

earthman34

Let me tell about the time I had all 4 missions fail at 95-99%. Kind of irritating, to say the least. I've also had three out of four fail at 99% as well. Kind of makes me think "event" RNG is a little .... wonky.

izausome

earthman34 wrote: »

Let me tell about the time I had all 4 missions fail at 95-99%. Kind of irritating, to say the least.

Let me tell about the time I had all 4 missions pass at 65-75%. Kind of irritating, to say the least. Actually was nice.
The shuttle AND slots have their issues but everything else is straight computer RNG.

This has been going on over 2 years. Changes are gonna be either slow or not happening. Prepare to argue forever or just deal with it and figure out how to take it to your advantage.

If you qualify, check out SSR, they will coach you over these issues.

[10F] Hyndland

I regularly fail all five shuttles despite them all being 99%