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Let’s do some math DB

On March 1, when DB offered 10 standard portal packs for $10, I bit. On the last three, I pulled a Mirror Ezri on each one; no beholds, no other super rare or legendary crew. At the time, it appears there were 204 super rares, 58 not in the portal from what other posts have shown me, meaning 146 possible super rares. DB won’t say, but from what I’ve read, there’s about an 8-10% chance of a legendary crew. Giving benefit of the doubt, let’s say 8%. So if 92% chance of super rare, with 146 possible super rares that would mean a 0.68% chance of any particular super rare, meaning roughly about 0.63% chance of a particular super rare with the chance of a legendary included. So by my math, and please correct me if I’m wrong, the odds of a .63% event happening three consecutive times is 0.0000250047%. I raised a ticket, and asked for it to be escalated, but basically they just said it happens.
“With the first link, the chain is forged. The first speech censured, the first thought forbidden, the first freedom denied, chains us all irrevocably.” Captain Picard quoting Judge Aaron Satie.

Comments

  • (HGH)Apollo(HGH)Apollo ✭✭✭✭✭
    The 10 standard portal packs should also include a guaranteed legendary so it isnt a complete loss. I bought one once and got 10 super rares I didnt need and no legendaries. I no longer buy this deal.
    Let’s fly!
  • IkritIkrit ✭✭✭
    So by my math, and please correct me if I’m wrong, the odds of a .63% event happening three consecutive times is 0.0000250047%. I raised a ticket, and asked for it to be escalated, but basically they just said it happens.

    That is a 1-in-4-million event, or flipping a coin 22 times and getting heads each time. That's very rare, but I can still see it. The question is: How many other times has it happened? If this is the first and only instance, then I believe it. If it has happened like 10 times, then I would have to ask how many times have 3 of the same pack been bought in a row by the same player (ideally since the last portal revision, since the chances would be the same).

    Just be careful. Apparently the chances of getting killed by a shark attack is about the same. Then again, you can't get killed a shark attack if you stay out of the water (unless Sharknado).
  • What is your basis for assuming that all the possible drops are equally possible? DB can, and probably does, weight some of the cards so that they drop more often. I know of no requirement or guarantee that all of the cards of equal rarity drop at the same rate.
  • What is your basis for assuming that all the possible drops are equally possible? DB can, and probably does, weight some of the cards so that they drop more often. I know of no requirement or guarantee that all of the cards of equal rarity drop at the same rate.

    That is a fair point, I don’t know, and have wondered about that myself. It certainly is something I would like to know. Even if the odds were higher on certain characters were higher, I think it’s fair to say that mine was still an improbable outcome. I think I can speak for a lot of other folks and say some more transparency about not only the pull rates of specific super rare issue, but a lot of other things involving pack pulls would be appreciated by the STT community.
    “With the first link, the chain is forged. The first speech censured, the first thought forbidden, the first freedom denied, chains us all irrevocably.” Captain Picard quoting Judge Aaron Satie.
  • More transparancy would be great. I had a similar instance last year when trying to get Mirror Troi and Adm Nechayev appeared in back-to-back legendary beholds.
  • Re: weighting cards, I obviously never know if it's confirmation bias or if there is behind-the-scenes weighting, but from a consumer perspective it seems obvious. For example, I bet the Discovery two-stars drop somewhat more often than the old two-stars nowadays. Similarly, whenever they add a new three-star, it certainly seems like they have a higher chance of dropping from the premium portal than older three-stars. Again, I could very well be seeing nothing more than my own bias, but it does strike me as worth investigating.
  • Frank?Frank? ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'll just leave this here.
  • edited March 2018
    Clearly photoshopped... Oh wait, it's Frank. So it's real?! Gee-wiz!
  • On March 1, when DB offered 10 standard portal packs for $10, I bit. On the last three, I pulled a Mirror Ezri on each one; no beholds, no other super rare or legendary crew. At the time, it appears there were 204 super rares, 58 not in the portal from what other posts have shown me, meaning 146 possible super rares. DB won’t say, but from what I’ve read, there’s about an 8-10% chance of a legendary crew. Giving benefit of the doubt, let’s say 8%. So if 92% chance of super rare, with 146 possible super rares that would mean a 0.68% chance of any particular super rare, meaning roughly about 0.63% chance of a particular super rare with the chance of a legendary included. So by my math, and please correct me if I’m wrong, the odds of a .63% event happening three consecutive times is 0.0000250047%. I raised a ticket, and asked for it to be escalated, but basically they just said it happens.

    Trying to correct your math:
    The low chance event happens only 2 times. The first one is just any super rare, so 92%. Combined that would be a 0.0037% chance.
  • Peachtree RexPeachtree Rex ✭✭✭✭✭
    Tygra Dax wrote: »
    On March 1, when DB offered 10 standard portal packs for $10, I bit. On the last three, I pulled a Mirror Ezri on each one; no beholds, no other super rare or legendary crew. At the time, it appears there were 204 super rares, 58 not in the portal from what other posts have shown me, meaning 146 possible super rares. DB won’t say, but from what I’ve read, there’s about an 8-10% chance of a legendary crew. Giving benefit of the doubt, let’s say 8%. So if 92% chance of super rare, with 146 possible super rares that would mean a 0.68% chance of any particular super rare, meaning roughly about 0.63% chance of a particular super rare with the chance of a legendary included. So by my math, and please correct me if I’m wrong, the odds of a .63% event happening three consecutive times is 0.0000250047%. I raised a ticket, and asked for it to be escalated, but basically they just said it happens.

    Trying to correct your math:
    The low chance event happens only 2 times. The first one is just any super rare, so 92%. Combined that would be a 0.0037% chance.

    Was just about to point this out too, and even those odds are (probably) pessimistic.

    Odds of getting 3 of the same 4* on three pulls (you aren't upset that you, specifically, got Ezri, only that you got three of the same 4*. That means the first one could have been ANY 4* and the subsequent two had to be specifically one of them):
    100% * 0.63%^2 = 0.003969%

    This, however, doesn't take into account two things that are sort of difficult to take into account because they aren't independent (that is, the odds of seeing a specific 4* in a given pack is dependent on if the guaranteed slot ends up yielding a 4 or 5*). Without some specific information on how the packs are constructed, I don't think a precise probability is knowable.:
    1. That one slot is guaranteed to be a 4* 90% of the time and a 5* 10% of the time
    2. That any other slot could have also been a 4 or 5*

    So, yes, this was a very rare occurrence, I would totally agree with you. However, we're not taking struck-by-lightning-while-winning-the-lottery rare.
  • kapukapu ✭✭✭
    it's like winning in the national lottery, some one eventually gets the main prize. very unlikely event but it still happens. go figure.
    Captain Lvl 99; Vip0; 552 Unique Immortals; Fleet: Omega Molecules; Base Lvl 134 (MAX); Playing Since March 2016.
  • I forgot to mention, but part of what made it most frustrating was that I already had Mirror Ezri FFFE
    “With the first link, the chain is forged. The first speech censured, the first thought forbidden, the first freedom denied, chains us all irrevocably.” Captain Picard quoting Judge Aaron Satie.
  • Commander SinclairCommander Sinclair ✭✭✭✭✭
    This is one of the reasons I ALWAYS space out my pulls over the course of days, when I get the packs.
    I want to become a Dilionaire...
  • MuadDaveMuadDave ✭✭✭
    Isn't this exactly the same chance as getting one 4*, and then any particular 4* in the next pull? All sequences of the same rarity should be equally unlikely- we just don't notice when it's 2 different ones.
  • [BL] Q [BL] Q ✭✭✭✭✭
    130k Vp (chocolate donut amount of chrons) equals 13k place and woeful rewards this is the first time in two years I decided to partipate beyond 25k Vp in a galaxy event with the exception (galaxy mega) not because I wanted Pulaski or to be competetive more out of curiosity. I’m left scratching my head wondering why people enjoy these types of events. The chron cost v rewards are underwhelming to say the least. You’d be better off buying packs so why not do away with the events and just put up packs for sale?
  • DralixDralix ✭✭✭✭✭
    MuadDave wrote: »
    Isn't this exactly the same chance as getting one 4*, and then any particular 4* in the next pull? All sequences of the same rarity should be equally unlikely- we just don't notice when it's 2 different ones.

    Yes. In other words, what happened to the OP is no more unlikely than getting Gorn Captain, Galen, Kazon Seska on back to back to back pulls. But the latter would not have been remarkable.
  • Travis S McClainTravis S McClain ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2018
    Re: weighting cards, I obviously never know if it's confirmation bias or if there is behind-the-scenes weighting, but from a consumer perspective it seems obvious. For example, I bet the Discovery two-stars drop somewhat more often than the old two-stars nowadays. Similarly, whenever they add a new three-star, it certainly seems like they have a higher chance of dropping from the premium portal than older three-stars. Again, I could very well be seeing nothing more than my own bias, but it does strike me as worth investigating.

    I track my portal pulls. Here in 2018, I have so far acquired 1033 items from the Basic Time Portal. Here's the breakdown on crew:

    x6
    2* CMO Crusher
    2* Security Chief Worf

    x5
    2* Cadet Sito Jaxa
    2* Dabo Girl Leeta
    2* Nurse Paris

    x4
    2* Captain Kirk
    2* Lt Commander Scott
    2* Persis
    1* Bartender Quark
    1* Ensign Chapel
    1* Ensign Mayweather

    x3
    2* Acting Ensign Crusher
    2* Away Team Archer
    2* Commander Chakotay
    2* Ensign Ro
    2* KDF Alexander
    2* Lt Commander Data
    2* Recovering Spock
    2* Technician Rom
    1* Chef Neelix
    1* Counselor Troi
    1* Teenager Nog
    1* Yeoman Rand

    x2
    3* Boxer Chakotay
    2* Commander Riker
    2* Dr Phlox
    2* Ensign Sato
    2* Enterprise-D Picard
    2* First Maje Haron
    2* Kathryn Janeway
    2* Lt Naomi Wildman
    2* Prisoner Michael Burnham
    2* Telek R'Mor
    1* CMO Bashir
    1* Commander Spock
    1* Crewman Tarses
    1* Ensign Chekov
    1* Ensign Ogawa
    1* Investigator Odo
    1* Lt Sulu
    1* Wesley Crusher

    x1
    4* Behold! Klingon Quark, Commander Dolim, Fesek
    3* Captain Dathon
    3* Command Wrap Kirk
    3* Lieutenant Saavik
    3* Mora Pol
    3* Racquetball Bashir
    3* Tailor Garak
    3* Temporal Shift Kes
    3* Third Remata'Klan
    2* Boomer Mayweather
    2* Cadet Nog
    2* Ensign Pazlar
    2* Ensign Seska
    2* Glinn Damar
    2* Lieutenant Commander Saru
    2* Major Kira
    2* Section 31 Reed
    2* Seven in Blue
    1* Botanist Keiko
    1* Chief Engineer Torres
    1* CMO 'Bones' McCoy
    1* Comm Officer Uhura
    1* Desert Ezri Dax
    1* Ensign Tuvok
    1* Lt Jadzia Dax
    1* Lt Thomas Riker
    1* Will Riker

    If the Disco cadets have been weighted, it certainly hasn't presented itself in my data pool. I've had as many 4* Beholds as I've had Lieutenant Commander Saru, and as many Boxer Chakotays as I've had Prisoner Michael Burnhams.
  • Tygra Dax wrote: »
    On March 1, when DB offered 10 standard portal packs for $10, I bit. On the last three, I pulled a Mirror Ezri on each one; no beholds, no other super rare or legendary crew. At the time, it appears there were 204 super rares, 58 not in the portal from what other posts have shown me, meaning 146 possible super rares. DB won’t say, but from what I’ve read, there’s about an 8-10% chance of a legendary crew. Giving benefit of the doubt, let’s say 8%. So if 92% chance of super rare, with 146 possible super rares that would mean a 0.68% chance of any particular super rare, meaning roughly about 0.63% chance of a particular super rare with the chance of a legendary included. So by my math, and please correct me if I’m wrong, the odds of a .63% event happening three consecutive times is 0.0000250047%. I raised a ticket, and asked for it to be escalated, but basically they just said it happens.

    Trying to correct your math:
    The low chance event happens only 2 times. The first one is just any super rare, so 92%. Combined that would be a 0.0037% chance.

    Was just about to point this out too, and even those odds are (probably) pessimistic.

    Odds of getting 3 of the same 4* on three pulls (you aren't upset that you, specifically, got Ezri, only that you got three of the same 4*. That means the first one could have been ANY 4* and the subsequent two had to be specifically one of them):
    100% * 0.63%^2 = 0.003969%

    This, however, doesn't take into account two things that are sort of difficult to take into account because they aren't independent (that is, the odds of seeing a specific 4* in a given pack is dependent on if the guaranteed slot ends up yielding a 4 or 5*). Without some specific information on how the packs are constructed, I don't think a precise probability is knowable.:
    1. That one slot is guaranteed to be a 4* 90% of the time and a 5* 10% of the time
    2. That any other slot could have also been a 4 or 5*

    So, yes, this was a very rare occurrence, I would totally agree with you. However, we're not taking struck-by-lightning-while-winning-the-lottery rare.

    Also consider that he didn't just open three packs, but ten, so there were eight different pulls that could have been the start of a three-in-a-row streak that would trigger such a reaction, so the chances of getting such result somewhere in the ten packs are even higher.
  • Travis S McClainTravis S McClain ✭✭✭✭✭
    Re: Weighting of Disco crew - Funnily enough, Prisoner Michael Burnham dropped from one of my Voyage dilemmas earlier today, and in a 10x standard pull yesterday and today. So did CMO Crusher, however.
  • Ikrit wrote: »
    So by my math, and please correct me if I’m wrong, the odds of a .63% event happening three consecutive times is 0.0000250047%. I raised a ticket, and asked for it to be escalated, but basically they just said it happens.

    That is a 1-in-4-million event, or flipping a coin 22 times and getting heads each time. That's very rare, but I can still see it. The question is: How many other times has it happened? If this is the first and only instance, then I believe it. If it has happened like 10 times, then I would have to ask how many times have 3 of the same pack been bought in a row by the same player (ideally since the last portal revision, since the chances would be the same).

    Just be careful. Apparently the chances of getting killed by a shark attack is about the same. Then again, you can't get killed a shark attack if you stay out of the water (unless Sharknado).

    You're obviously too young to remember the terror of the Land-Shark!

    *knock knock*
    "Who is it?"
    "Candy-gram"
    "Oh, hell...AUGHHHHH!"

    tragic.
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