All the estimators out there need to be adjusted. DB severely nerfed voyages. This should have gone 7:50-8:00. Instead, it will fail in about 10 min.
No one, to my knowledge, has created an actual Voyage simulator that includes information like variance or 90% confidence intervals. It's totally doable, as we have the base information required. The only item that isn't 100% understood is how difficulty increases over time. It has been hypothesized to increase 2500 points per Dilemma (1250/hr), but I've also seen instances where a skill check will fail and then start passing again, so there's some amount of variability cooked in there.
To your specific case, yes, it looks like you got the bad end of the variance stick. My spreadsheet predicts you should have 1110 AM left at the 6 hour mark, so you're ~700AM in the hole. In 6 hours, you had 240 dilemmas and you failed 20 more than was expected.
However, you have a LOT more than 10 minutes left with 467 AM. For one, even if you were in fail-all-hazards mode, it would last 21 minutes. However, if you consider that 60% of hazards (on average) will be your primary or secondary skill, then 467 AM should actually last you closer to 53 minutes on average. Certainly, it could be higher or lower depending on the actual hazards you encounter.
Edit: I've seen my calculator (And @Chewable C++ 's) be right on the nose. I've seen them be an hour short. I've seen them be an hour long. It's all variance. Until someone develops an actual simulator that gives confidence intervals, all these calculators can give you are averages that are at the whim of your hazard RNG.
Just ran a voyage to ~7:45 with primary at 7.6k and secondary at 6.9k and 2800 AM.
My 8-Point STT Strategy:
1. Voyage.
2. Have fun. If something isn't fun, don't do it.
3. Only pursue characters I care about.
4. Contribute to the fleet.
5. No more spending beyond monthly cards.
6. Have fun.
7. Voyage.
8. Have fun!
All the estimators out there need to be adjusted. DB severely nerfed voyages. This should have gone 7:50-8:00. Instead, it will fail in about 10 min.
No one, to my knowledge, has created an actual Voyage simulator that includes information like variance or 90% confidence intervals. It's totally doable, as we have the base information required. The only item that isn't 100% understood is how difficulty increases over time. It has been hypothesized to increase 2500 points per Dilemma (1250/hr), but I've also seen instances where a skill check will fail and then start passing again, so there's some amount of variability cooked in there.
To your specific case, yes, it looks like you got the bad end of the variance stick. My spreadsheet predicts you should have 1110 AM left at the 6 hour mark, so you're ~700AM in the hole. In 6 hours, you had 240 dilemmas and you failed 20 more than was expected.
However, you have a LOT more than 10 minutes left with 467 AM. For one, even if you were in fail-all-hazards mode, it would last 21 minutes. However, if you consider that 60% of hazards (on average) will be your primary or secondary skill, then 467 AM should actually last you closer to 53 minutes on average. Certainly, it could be higher or lower depending on the actual hazards you encounter.
Edit: I've seen my calculator (And @Chewable C++ 's) be right on the nose. I've seen them be an hour short. I've seen them be an hour long. It's all variance. Until someone develops an actual simulator that gives confidence intervals, all these calculators can give you are averages that are at the whim of your hazard RNG.
I get that the estimators are just that, estimators. I've seen some voyages be right on the nose like you. I'm usually somewhere between the 95-100% estimate. Rarely, I've even gone past the 100% estimate (and why only rarely? But that's another topic for another time).
But I have never seen a single estimate be off by more than 1 hour. In fact, I don't think I've ever encountered a voyage that fell short of the lowest estimate, let alone an additional hour short of it.
Something is severely wrong with the voyages, especially when others here are reporting that 7k/7k voyages are going 7:45.
All the estimators out there need to be adjusted. DB severely nerfed voyages. This should have gone 7:50-8:00. Instead, it will fail in about 10 min.
No one, to my knowledge, has created an actual Voyage simulator that includes information like variance or 90% confidence intervals. It's totally doable, as we have the base information required. The only item that isn't 100% understood is how difficulty increases over time. It has been hypothesized to increase 2500 points per Dilemma (1250/hr), but I've also seen instances where a skill check will fail and then start passing again, so there's some amount of variability cooked in there.
To your specific case, yes, it looks like you got the bad end of the variance stick. My spreadsheet predicts you should have 1110 AM left at the 6 hour mark, so you're ~700AM in the hole. In 6 hours, you had 240 dilemmas and you failed 20 more than was expected.
However, you have a LOT more than 10 minutes left with 467 AM. For one, even if you were in fail-all-hazards mode, it would last 21 minutes. However, if you consider that 60% of hazards (on average) will be your primary or secondary skill, then 467 AM should actually last you closer to 53 minutes on average. Certainly, it could be higher or lower depending on the actual hazards you encounter.
Edit: I've seen my calculator (And @Chewable C++ 's) be right on the nose. I've seen them be an hour short. I've seen them be an hour long. It's all variance. Until someone develops an actual simulator that gives confidence intervals, all these calculators can give you are averages that are at the whim of your hazard RNG.
That is correct in saying there is ALOT more life left in that voyage. I would like to see a screenshot when there is less than 30 AM left. I bet ITV lasted at least another hour
So far your reporting a single odd result. This doesn't immediately mean they have changed how voyages work. This could just be the result of really bad RNG. I've also seen that last 200 AM go longer than you might think below the 8h mark.
I've currently got a 11238/10389/1554/6146/4573/1225 out (so two values greater than 10k) and 2675 starting antimatter. Using Chewable's, it started with a 8h25m estimate. 4 hours in with 2140 antimatter remaining, it's predicting 8h30m total after updating with current stats.
So with similar starting stats, I'm not seeing signs of a change yet. Document it, if it is doing it EVERY time, then there is a sign that something MAY have changed. Also be sure to submit values to the estimators, if they take them (Chewable's does). This can help them look for trends.
"If it wasn't for autocorrect, we wouldn't have Tuvok on a Giraffe."
The RNG could be clustering and you might find that you had a high number of hazards using your lower stats soon after they start to fail. That would cause you to lose more AM than expected.
Also when you have wide splits like this between skills if you start off with a lot of hazards using your main skills (I.e. at a time when any would succeed) natural balancing might mean more hazards from your dump stats later on.
I've had a Voyage fail on me twice yesterday, because it severely fell short of Chewable's -10% estimate. A 10K / 9K / 2-4K... stranded me at just after 7 hours. I don't think I've ever missed the -10% mark, let alone by almost half an hour, but I also don't estimate every voyage at launch. Not saying there is definitely something wrong, just providing another data point.
I try to have tertiary skills around the 5-6k mark and the primary stats above 8/9000, these tend to reach the 8hr mark; having such low skills early on reduces your AM before you get to the better level voyage skill checks.
Also, what was your starting AM since this has a large bearing on how long your voyage lasts.
When you know you will be buying more AM then the loading technique works better as you are critting the later voyage skill checks more often.
And here I just pulled an 8 hour out of a "Meh, should go at least 6" run. I sometimes just eyeball them and monitor them once they hit the 6 hour mark.
The next event would've been a hazard that I would've failed, but I recalled right after the Dilemma.
Plugging the numbers into puts it at 8 hours 1 minute, which is close enough for an estimator.
I have seen up to almost an hour variance with similar skills. It really depends on your luck with how many times your high skills are tested.
I tend to go for 9000, 9000 then 3 between 5 and 6000 then one around 3000.
Jean-Luc Picard: "We think we've come so far. Torture of heretics, burning of witches, is all ancient history. Then, before you can blink an eye, suddenly, it threatens to start all over again."
It's RNG. I've had a similar voyage have a really low tertiary skill get called too frequently and been in your situation, then I resent the same exact crew and hit 8 hours when I sent them out again. The issue is the estimators don't give wide enough confidence intervals, not that DB nerfed anything.
So far your reporting a single odd result. This doesn't immediately mean they have changed how voyages work. This could just be the result of really bad RNG. I've also seen that last 200 AM go longer than you might think below the 8h mark.
I've currently got a 11238/10389/1554/6146/4573/1225 out (so two values greater than 10k) and 2675 starting antimatter. Using Chewable's, it started with a 8h25m estimate. 4 hours in with 2140 antimatter remaining, it's predicting 8h30m total after updating with current stats.
So with similar starting stats, I'm not seeing signs of a change yet. Document it, if it is doing it EVERY time, then there is a sign that something MAY have changed. Also be sure to submit values to the estimators, if they take them (Chewable's does). This can help them look for trends.
FYI - Final value on this one - 9h6m - 43 am on recall. So I beat the estimator by 40 minutes.
"If it wasn't for autocorrect, we wouldn't have Tuvok on a Giraffe."
The Voyage calculator we use for our fleet has a pretty solid rate of success in predicting... The variance can obviously mess up the prediction, such as when I wind up with an inordinate amount of non-primary/secondary skill checks over the course of the first 6h... But it is right far more often than wrong, provided the users have input their crew properly so that the Bot can recommend the best mix.
I was surprised and hit the 8 hour mark with 8k/8k and 454 dil lef. That was a first without a refill.
The first time I hit the 8-hour mark without a refill it was with similar numbers, completely unexpected. When it was finally recalled I sent it out with the same crew and it fell about 20 minutes short of the 8 hour mark (but with much better rewards). Sometimes Voyages are weird like that.
I haven't noticed a change with voyages, i'm guessing rng just got the best of you on this one, i'm currently out on one right now and just passed a 6h hazard with only 8k skill.
The more uneven is stat distribution - the more random chance have a say in the length of you voyage. 9/9/4/4/4/4 and 9/9/8/6/1/1 theoretically should have about same voyage length on average. Practically second would often be either (much) longer or (much) shorter depending on what skills you'll hit at what times.
The more uneven is stat distribution - the more random chance have a say in the length of you voyage. 9/9/4/4/4/4 and 9/9/8/6/1/1 theoretically should have about same voyage length on average. Practically second would often be either (much) longer or (much) shorter depending on what skills you'll hit at what times.
Oh, I agree and understand that. My issue is that I've been sending a boatload of these kind of voyages: 8-10k/ 8-9k, tertiaries between 2-4k, and they have all been 7:45 - 8:20. And I get that these are estimates.
But there is no reason for such a voyage to only last 6 hrs. No estimate even comes close to a 6hr mark, not even within an hour of that.
I don't think RNG can even accomplish a skill check failure of this magnitude.
If it only lasted 7:00 - 7:30, I would've chalked it up to bad RNG. But more than an hour worse, either there's a bug, or new nerfing logic.
It's just bad luck - or bad RNG I guess. Last week, I sent out 2 voyages back-to-back. Same crew in the same slots. I started with 2775 AM. The first run, after the first dilemma I had 1200 and change AM left, the second run, after the first dilemma, I had 2620-something(or close). If you hit a bad batch of skill checks it can blow pretty hard...
The more uneven is stat distribution - the more random chance have a say in the length of you voyage. 9/9/4/4/4/4 and 9/9/8/6/1/1 theoretically should have about same voyage length on average. Practically second would often be either (much) longer or (much) shorter depending on what skills you'll hit at what times.
Oh, I agree and understand that. My issue is that I've been sending a boatload of these kind of voyages: 8-10k/ 8-9k, tertiaries between 2-4k, and they have all been 7:45 - 8:20. And I get that these are estimates.
But there is no reason for such a voyage to only last 6 hrs. No estimate even comes close to a 6hr mark, not even within an hour of that.
I don't think RNG can even accomplish a skill check failure of this magnitude.
If it only lasted 7:00 - 7:30, I would've chalked it up to bad RNG. But more than an hour worse, either there's a bug, or new nerfing logic.
Like I said in my post earlier, you were about 20 failures above expectation at 6hrs. Your other stats average around 3k, so those started failing around 2:15 into the voyage. Over the next 3:45, you saw 150 hazards (40/hr has been the observed rate). In that span, you would normally see about 90 primary/secondary and 60 "other". In your case, I am guessing you saw a 70/80 split instead.
It is certainly not outside the realm of reality. Like I have said before, the tools havent really been developed to quantify exactly how unlucky you were, but it doesn't seem unreasonable.
The more uneven is stat distribution - the more random chance have a say in the length of you voyage. 9/9/4/4/4/4 and 9/9/8/6/1/1 theoretically should have about same voyage length on average. Practically second would often be either (much) longer or (much) shorter depending on what skills you'll hit at what times.
Oh, I agree and understand that. My issue is that I've been sending a boatload of these kind of voyages: 8-10k/ 8-9k, tertiaries between 2-4k, and they have all been 7:45 - 8:20. And I get that these are estimates.
But there is no reason for such a voyage to only last 6 hrs. No estimate even comes close to a 6hr mark, not even within an hour of that.
I don't think RNG can even accomplish a skill check failure of this magnitude.
If it only lasted 7:00 - 7:30, I would've chalked it up to bad RNG. But more than an hour worse, either there's a bug, or new nerfing logic.
Like I said in my post earlier, you were about 20 failures above expectation at 6hrs. Your other stats average around 3k, so those started failing around 2:15 into the voyage. Over the next 3:45, you saw 150 hazards (40/hr has been the observed rate). In that span, you would normally see about 90 primary/secondary and 60 "other". In your case, I am guessing you saw a 70/80 split instead.
It is certainly not outside the realm of reality. Like I have said before, the tools havent really been developed to quantify exactly how unlucky you were, but it doesn't seem unreasonable.
Also, as others have said, that Voyage has a lot more than 10 minutes before it fails. I'd say it'd end closer to 7hrs than 6hrs.
I just had an 8k/8k Voyage last almost 8 hours (7hrs 48min), tertiary skills between 2k and 5k. So pretty sure there has been no nerf. Just RNG. And also a little added pessimism about how much longer your Voyage will last.
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All the estimators out there need to be adjusted. DB severely nerfed voyages. This should have gone 7:50-8:00. Instead, it will fail in about 10 min.
Maybe I’m up too early but there is no way that 10k in both primary and secondary skills will run out of antimatter after ten minutes of a voyage.
Not at the 6 hour mark. Last night I was waiting about 30 minutes for my 200 AM to run out from around the same time. It started to get annoying. I felt like Kramer - it was enough already and I just wanted to get some sleep.
All the estimators out there need to be adjusted. DB severely nerfed voyages. This should have gone 7:50-8:00. Instead, it will fail in about 10 min.
What you really need to capture from this voyage is the skill check distribution. It looks to me like the featured skills were a low percentage and your 10k loading hurt you badly.
Recalling an 8.5 hour mission with these skills now
My currently recalled mission is 9.7/9.7/5/3.5/3/3. Should've lasted over 8 but fell short at 7h50m. I started with 2700-2750 AM I think. I didn't have the right ship and I probably made some sub-optimal choices on crew traits. I didn't send Nurse Faith despite being a DIP/MED voyage.
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Comments
7:16 / 7:40 / 8:04, highest skill 503 too high
7:19 / 7:44 / 8:08, highest skill 424 too high
I have sent out hundreds of similar stat voyages and never gotten below 7:40.
Instead,had to recall at 6:15 with 200am left.
No one, to my knowledge, has created an actual Voyage simulator that includes information like variance or 90% confidence intervals. It's totally doable, as we have the base information required. The only item that isn't 100% understood is how difficulty increases over time. It has been hypothesized to increase 2500 points per Dilemma (1250/hr), but I've also seen instances where a skill check will fail and then start passing again, so there's some amount of variability cooked in there.
To your specific case, yes, it looks like you got the bad end of the variance stick. My spreadsheet predicts you should have 1110 AM left at the 6 hour mark, so you're ~700AM in the hole. In 6 hours, you had 240 dilemmas and you failed 20 more than was expected.
However, you have a LOT more than 10 minutes left with 467 AM. For one, even if you were in fail-all-hazards mode, it would last 21 minutes. However, if you consider that 60% of hazards (on average) will be your primary or secondary skill, then 467 AM should actually last you closer to 53 minutes on average. Certainly, it could be higher or lower depending on the actual hazards you encounter.
Edit: I've seen my calculator (And @Chewable C++ 's) be right on the nose. I've seen them be an hour short. I've seen them be an hour long. It's all variance. Until someone develops an actual simulator that gives confidence intervals, all these calculators can give you are averages that are at the whim of your hazard RNG.
1. Voyage.
2. Have fun. If something isn't fun, don't do it.
3. Only pursue characters I care about.
4. Contribute to the fleet.
5. No more spending beyond monthly cards.
6. Have fun.
7. Voyage.
8. Have fun!
I get that the estimators are just that, estimators. I've seen some voyages be right on the nose like you. I'm usually somewhere between the 95-100% estimate. Rarely, I've even gone past the 100% estimate (and why only rarely? But that's another topic for another time).
But I have never seen a single estimate be off by more than 1 hour. In fact, I don't think I've ever encountered a voyage that fell short of the lowest estimate, let alone an additional hour short of it.
Something is severely wrong with the voyages, especially when others here are reporting that 7k/7k voyages are going 7:45.
That is correct in saying there is ALOT more life left in that voyage. I would like to see a screenshot when there is less than 30 AM left. I bet ITV lasted at least another hour
I've currently got a 11238/10389/1554/6146/4573/1225 out (so two values greater than 10k) and 2675 starting antimatter. Using Chewable's, it started with a 8h25m estimate. 4 hours in with 2140 antimatter remaining, it's predicting 8h30m total after updating with current stats.
So with similar starting stats, I'm not seeing signs of a change yet. Document it, if it is doing it EVERY time, then there is a sign that something MAY have changed. Also be sure to submit values to the estimators, if they take them (Chewable's does). This can help them look for trends.
Also when you have wide splits like this between skills if you start off with a lot of hazards using your main skills (I.e. at a time when any would succeed) natural balancing might mean more hazards from your dump stats later on.
Also, what was your starting AM since this has a large bearing on how long your voyage lasts.
When you know you will be buying more AM then the loading technique works better as you are critting the later voyage skill checks more often.
Jim
The next event would've been a hazard that I would've failed, but I recalled right after the Dilemma.
Plugging the numbers into puts it at 8 hours 1 minute, which is close enough for an estimator.
I tend to go for 9000, 9000 then 3 between 5 and 6000 then one around 3000.
FYI - Final value on this one - 9h6m - 43 am on recall. So I beat the estimator by 40 minutes.
GoT Chief Communications Officer
The first time I hit the 8-hour mark without a refill it was with similar numbers, completely unexpected. When it was finally recalled I sent it out with the same crew and it fell about 20 minutes short of the 8 hour mark (but with much better rewards). Sometimes Voyages are weird like that.
Oh, I agree and understand that. My issue is that I've been sending a boatload of these kind of voyages: 8-10k/ 8-9k, tertiaries between 2-4k, and they have all been 7:45 - 8:20. And I get that these are estimates.
But there is no reason for such a voyage to only last 6 hrs. No estimate even comes close to a 6hr mark, not even within an hour of that.
I don't think RNG can even accomplish a skill check failure of this magnitude.
If it only lasted 7:00 - 7:30, I would've chalked it up to bad RNG. But more than an hour worse, either there's a bug, or new nerfing logic.
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0×2★; 0×3★; 18×4★; 21×5★
Like I said in my post earlier, you were about 20 failures above expectation at 6hrs. Your other stats average around 3k, so those started failing around 2:15 into the voyage. Over the next 3:45, you saw 150 hazards (40/hr has been the observed rate). In that span, you would normally see about 90 primary/secondary and 60 "other". In your case, I am guessing you saw a 70/80 split instead.
It is certainly not outside the realm of reality. Like I have said before, the tools havent really been developed to quantify exactly how unlucky you were, but it doesn't seem unreasonable.
Also, as others have said, that Voyage has a lot more than 10 minutes before it fails. I'd say it'd end closer to 7hrs than 6hrs.
I just had an 8k/8k Voyage last almost 8 hours (7hrs 48min), tertiary skills between 2k and 5k. So pretty sure there has been no nerf. Just RNG. And also a little added pessimism about how much longer your Voyage will last.
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Maybe I’m up too early but there is no way that 10k in both primary and secondary skills will run out of antimatter after ten minutes of a voyage.
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haha, i meant 10 min after the posting - so after the 6h dilemma. i ended up recalling at 6:15 with 300 am left (not 200 as posted earlier).
Not at the 6 hour mark. Last night I was waiting about 30 minutes for my 200 AM to run out from around the same time. It started to get annoying. I felt like Kramer - it was enough already and I just wanted to get some sleep.
What you really need to capture from this voyage is the skill check distribution. It looks to me like the featured skills were a low percentage and your 10k loading hurt you badly.
Recalling an 8.5 hour mission with these skills now