My currently recalled mission is 9.7/9.7/5/3.5/3/3. Should've lasted over 8 but fell short at 7h50m. I started with 2700-2750 AM I think. I didn't have the right ship and I probably made some sub-optimal choices on crew traits. I didn't send Nurse Faith despite being a DIP/MED voyage.
That's been my norm for 100s of voyages sent. sometimes i crack 8 hr, sometimes i don't. and i'm fine with that.
but if you sent out that voyage and it failed after 6:30 would you have thought that was even a possibility?
However, you have a LOT more than 10 minutes left with 467 AM. For one, even if you were in fail-all-hazards mode, it would last 21 minutes. However, if you consider that 60% of hazards (on average) will be your primary or secondary skill, then 467 AM should actually last you closer to 53 minutes on average. Certainly, it could be higher or lower depending on the actual hazards you encounter.
Case in point, I just hit 8 hours with about 450 AM left and primary/secondary skills of 10238/9059. I finally recalled at 8:36 with 14 AM.
However, you have a LOT more than 10 minutes left with 467 AM. For one, even if you were in fail-all-hazards mode, it would last 21 minutes. However, if you consider that 60% of hazards (on average) will be your primary or secondary skill, then 467 AM should actually last you closer to 53 minutes on average. Certainly, it could be higher or lower depending on the actual hazards you encounter.
Case in point, I just hit 8 hours with about 450 AM left and primary/secondary skills of 10238/9059. I finally recalled at 8:36 with 14 AM.
that's awesome!
i should clarify - i don't think this is a global nerf (meaning all voyages have been reduced by x%). I do think that there is now an added RNG modifier that says "if you roll an X you get *cheesepuff smacked*" so in this case, i had the right stats for a 7:45-8:00 run, but i rolled the X and instead i got hit with the 25% nerf
i should clarify - i don't think this is a global nerf (meaning all voyages have been reduced by x%). I do think that there is now an added RNG modifier that says "if you roll an X you get *cheesepuff smacked*" so in this case, i had the right stats for a 7:45-8:00 run, but i rolled the X and instead i got hit with the 25% nerf
Isn't it more likely that after hundreds of voyages, you finally got hit with a 1 in some hundred streak of hitting your lowest skill?
While I think this result is at least possible with current understanding of mechanics, it really is very, very far off the mark. I've seen some very weird outliers reported through my form, but have never experienced them myself or have seen any other screenshot proof - besides this thread. I tend to assume that those are due to data entry human error.
It's hard to argue with a screenshot, though. Something very weird happened here. I'm not sure if this is even possible - it may be, but if so, the odds of this would be miniscule.
Hopefully if something really did change, we'll see a pattern. But so far this is the only sample I've seen that doesn't fit the previously established pattern.
You can all help by reporting your results to my form:
My currently recalled mission is 9.7/9.7/5/3.5/3/3. Should've lasted over 8 but fell short at 7h50m. I started with 2700-2750 AM I think. I didn't have the right ship and I probably made some sub-optimal choices on crew traits. I didn't send Nurse Faith despite being a DIP/MED voyage.
That's been my norm for 100s of voyages sent. sometimes i crack 8 hr, sometimes i don't. and i'm fine with that.
but if you sent out that voyage and it failed after 6:30 would you have thought that was even a possibility?
No but I would require extensive data taking before declaring a nerf. Sure DB can be sketchy at times (deliberate or not) but I've been posting on STT forums for awhile and I've seen more paranoid rants from the player base then I would prefer.
Not making 8 hours is annoying. Not getting any 3/4* crew on the same Voyage has more annoying. It did give me over 550 chrons though.
I should mention that the skewed skill distribution for this voyage does make this situation more likely, but it still seems very, very unlikely to me.
On average based on submissions, the chance of the estimate being off by more than 10% is something like 1%. This result is off by more than 15%...
RNG can be a fickle beast. On my voyage above, I was at 80 AM left at the 7:48 mark, but I got lucky and passed 4 of the next 5 hazards to cross the 8hr mark. I've had other voyages where I failed the last few hazards trying to get to a dilemma and had to recall before I got there.
While I think this result is at least possible with current understanding of mechanics, it really is very, very far off the mark. I've seen some very weird outliers reported through my form, but have never experienced them myself or have seen any other screenshot proof - besides this thread. I tend to assume that those are due to data entry human error.
It's hard to argue with a screenshot, though. Something very weird happened here. I'm not sure if this is even possible - it may be, but if so, the odds of this would be miniscule.
Hopefully if something really did change, we'll see a pattern. But so far this is the only sample I've seen that doesn't fit the previously established pattern.
You can all help by reporting your results to my form:
Also there've been plenty of reports of end of voyage hazard counts that don't follow the pattern in either direction. Something small fraction of the time there are either way too many hazard checks or way too few... at least according to the stats screen. I've seen no corroboration from voyage log of this happening - although I haven't tried mining the voyage log programmatically.
But I've always suspected that if the stats screen can be wrong, perhaps the actual calculations can sometimes be wrong too, leading to zany unexpected results.
Well as long as the hazards are chosen by RNG without any safety modifiers then these unlikely results will hapen someday to someone...
On my current voygae with 6.8k on both featured skills and 6/5/5/2.6 on the others i just passd 6 hours with 1700am left, so it will get me beyond 7 hours eventually...
Captain Lvl 99; Vip0; 552 Unique Immortals; Fleet: Omega Molecules; Base Lvl 134 (MAX); Playing Since March 2016.
Think back to your D&D days... everyone has had dice runs like this.
See, this is the problem.
Absolutely zero ability to do any of my dice rituals, and I can't retire DB's RNG when it gives me too many 1's in a row.
Only the weak retire dice. Every time you need RNG on your side in STT you must be prepared to do the following:
1 - Blow on your phone
2 - Hold it close to your heart
3 - Dance your butt off
If that fails, animal/sibling sacrifice might be acceptable depending on local laws.
Think back to your D&D days... everyone has had dice runs like this.
See, this is the problem.
Absolutely zero ability to do any of my dice rituals, and I can't retire DB's RNG when it gives me too many 1's in a row.
Only the weak retire dice. Every time you need RNG on your side in STT you must be prepared to do the following:
1 - Blow on your phone
2 - Hold it close to your heart
3 - Dance your butt off
If that fails, animal/sibling sacrifice might be acceptable depending on local laws.
I already squeeze my phone and think positive thoughts. I probably should try blowing on it...
As for the sacrifice...well I guess it's time to call my brother.
“Treason, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder.” - Elim Garak
Cardassian wishlist: Tora Ziyal - Thanks!
Natima Lang
Empok Nor Garak
Tekeny Ghemor
Mira
Makbar
Dejar
Ulani Belor
Think back to your D&D days... everyone has had dice runs like this.
See, this is the problem.
Absolutely zero ability to do any of my dice rituals, and I can't retire DB's RNG when it gives me too many 1's in a row.
With all due respect, I’ve seen way too many jumanji rolls in tabletop gaming to ever be comfortable with physical dice when a virtual rng is available.
Is it an rng that is fair to both the server and player? That’s up for debate, but if we assume that the voyage rng is unfair in favor of the server, at least the rng is equally unfair to all the players over time.
I had one with primary and secondary stats like the OP's (about 500 less for each), but my other skills were much lower (1.1, 1.6, 2.1, 2.4). I don't recall the starting AM, but at 6hr it had 177 AM remaining. I ran an identical voyage right after, and recalled it at 6 hrs to compare the hazards. I remember that it would have lasted much longer, possibly to the 7 hr mark.
The number of primary hazards in the first was 59; secondary, 56, all passed. The average number of hazards for the other skills was about 30 (the 2.4 stat passed 17 of 33, the 2.1 passed 9 of 31, and the 1.1 passed 2 of 27).
For the second, primary hazards was 84 and secondary was 52, all passed. The average hazards for the other skills was about 23. I passed about the same number of other hazards in both. The difference between the two voyages was about 20 hazards passed because they were in the primary skill instead of the other skills. So 20 failures is 600 AM, and 20 successes is 100. That's a 700 AM swing based on rng.
I have screenshots if anyone wants to see. One of the final AM and stats of the first voyage, plus the summary pages for both. Crew were identical for both, because i really wanted to test it.
Oh, I agree and understand that. My issue is that I've been sending a boatload of these kind of voyages: 8-10k/ 8-9k, tertiaries between 2-4k, and they have all been 7:45 - 8:20. And I get that these are estimates.
But there is no reason for such a voyage to only last 6 hrs. No estimate even comes close to a 6hr mark, not even within an hour of that.
I don't think RNG can even accomplish a skill check failure of this magnitude.
If it only lasted 7:00 - 7:30, I would've chalked it up to bad RNG. But more than an hour worse, either there's a bug, or new nerfing logic.
Thing is... my voyage right now... 10/10/6/2/2/1 400-something chrons at 6h dilemma. I'm currently 7:15 and still one hazard away from recalling. More if it would've been Gold/Silver ones. You simply recalled too early with plenty of AM left. Problem if you can't watch certainly, but if you can't watch it's better to cut off right after 3rd dilemma anyway.
EDIT: Just passed hazard.
EDIT2: Just passed another hazard. 2 hazards away from recall.
EDIT3: Just got purple.
EDIT4: Recall: 7:21
U never need more than 10k to have success in every hazard up to 8 hrs. Having 9.5k will net u about 95% of all hazards up to 8 hrs. You dont need more than that and u can use the rest on boosting other skills besides primary and secondary.
U never need more than 10k to have success in every hazard up to 8 hrs. Having 9.5k will net u about 95% of all hazards up to 8 hrs. You dont need more than that and u can use the rest on boosting other skills besides peimary and secondary.
Correct. Difficulty increases about 1250 per hour, so 8 hrs would have a 10k skill cap.
I would presume that the lower skill would begin failing far sooner than usual, which accounts for a significant AM drop, which was already low to start. I have had pretty even skill Voyages – around 4-6K each skill – get me to 8 hours (Starting with max AM of course)
Comments
That's been my norm for 100s of voyages sent. sometimes i crack 8 hr, sometimes i don't. and i'm fine with that.
but if you sent out that voyage and it failed after 6:30 would you have thought that was even a possibility?
Aka yes, I’m up way too early, haha. I Should’ve been able to glean your intent from the screenshots.
Task Force Pike/Garrett's Giants, Founder
Task Force April, Fleet Founder Emeritus
Newfie Central, Squad Founder, In Memoriam
Case in point, I just hit 8 hours with about 450 AM left and primary/secondary skills of 10238/9059. I finally recalled at 8:36 with 14 AM.
No Worries
that's awesome!
i should clarify - i don't think this is a global nerf (meaning all voyages have been reduced by x%). I do think that there is now an added RNG modifier that says "if you roll an X you get *cheesepuff smacked*" so in this case, i had the right stats for a 7:45-8:00 run, but i rolled the X and instead i got hit with the 25% nerf
Isn't it more likely that after hundreds of voyages, you finally got hit with a 1 in some hundred streak of hitting your lowest skill?
This appears to be a very strange anomaly.
While I think this result is at least possible with current understanding of mechanics, it really is very, very far off the mark. I've seen some very weird outliers reported through my form, but have never experienced them myself or have seen any other screenshot proof - besides this thread. I tend to assume that those are due to data entry human error.
It's hard to argue with a screenshot, though. Something very weird happened here. I'm not sure if this is even possible - it may be, but if so, the odds of this would be miniscule.
Hopefully if something really did change, we'll see a pattern. But so far this is the only sample I've seen that doesn't fit the previously established pattern.
You can all help by reporting your results to my form:
https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/175/tool-voyage-estimator-help-us-gather-data
Voyage Estimator Tool thread
No but I would require extensive data taking before declaring a nerf. Sure DB can be sketchy at times (deliberate or not) but I've been posting on STT forums for awhile and I've seen more paranoid rants from the player base then I would prefer.
Not making 8 hours is annoying. Not getting any 3/4* crew on the same Voyage has more annoying. It did give me over 550 chrons though.
On average based on submissions, the chance of the estimate being off by more than 10% is something like 1%. This result is off by more than 15%...
Voyage Estimator Tool thread
See, this is the problem.
Absolutely zero ability to do any of my dice rituals, and I can't retire DB's RNG when it gives me too many 1's in a row.
Cardassian wishlist:
Tora Ziyal - Thanks!
Natima Lang
Empok Nor Garak
Tekeny Ghemor
Mira
Makbar
Dejar
Ulani Belor
Thanks Chewable. I submitted my anomalous voyage. hopefully that will help you out.
But I've always suspected that if the stats screen can be wrong, perhaps the actual calculations can sometimes be wrong too, leading to zany unexpected results.
Voyage Estimator Tool thread
On my current voygae with 6.8k on both featured skills and 6/5/5/2.6 on the others i just passd 6 hours with 1700am left, so it will get me beyond 7 hours eventually...
Only the weak retire dice. Every time you need RNG on your side in STT you must be prepared to do the following:
1 - Blow on your phone
2 - Hold it close to your heart
3 - Dance your butt off
If that fails, animal/sibling sacrifice might be acceptable depending on local laws.
I already squeeze my phone and think positive thoughts. I probably should try blowing on it...
As for the sacrifice...well I guess it's time to call my brother.
Cardassian wishlist:
Tora Ziyal - Thanks!
Natima Lang
Empok Nor Garak
Tekeny Ghemor
Mira
Makbar
Dejar
Ulani Belor
With all due respect, I’ve seen way too many jumanji rolls in tabletop gaming to ever be comfortable with physical dice when a virtual rng is available.
Is it an rng that is fair to both the server and player? That’s up for debate, but if we assume that the voyage rng is unfair in favor of the server, at least the rng is equally unfair to all the players over time.
Task Force Pike/Garrett's Giants, Founder
Task Force April, Fleet Founder Emeritus
Newfie Central, Squad Founder, In Memoriam
The number of primary hazards in the first was 59; secondary, 56, all passed. The average number of hazards for the other skills was about 30 (the 2.4 stat passed 17 of 33, the 2.1 passed 9 of 31, and the 1.1 passed 2 of 27).
For the second, primary hazards was 84 and secondary was 52, all passed. The average hazards for the other skills was about 23. I passed about the same number of other hazards in both. The difference between the two voyages was about 20 hazards passed because they were in the primary skill instead of the other skills. So 20 failures is 600 AM, and 20 successes is 100. That's a 700 AM swing based on rng.
I have screenshots if anyone wants to see. One of the final AM and stats of the first voyage, plus the summary pages for both. Crew were identical for both, because i really wanted to test it.
EDIT: Just passed hazard.
EDIT2: Just passed another hazard. 2 hazards away from recall.
EDIT3: Just got purple.
EDIT4: Recall: 7:21
Correct. Difficulty increases about 1250 per hour, so 8 hrs would have a 10k skill cap.