Is there any data about the output in regards of proficiency ranges/crits?
The crits sometimes are even lower than non crits which is mindboggling why it is even a crits in the first place
Thanks for the screens, but I'm not manually entering all that. Plus, there are a number of data points iampicard tool tracks that would be impossible to extract from your screens.
Peachtree. That is what I meant, just did not put the words together correctlt.
They end up being nearly identical implementations. In terms of average rolls and what not, that distinction doesn't actually matter at all and it's me just being picky.
I don't expect I will be the only one analyzing this information. In fact, I hope there are others who are interested in it as well. The data is pretty exhaustive and should cover most, if not all, of the various gauntlet theories out there.
Perhaps I need to look more closely, but I didn't see tracking of merit and dilithium refreshes, player rank, or match selection.
Intriguing breakdown otherwise. Wish I could contribute, but using Microsoft products is against my religion. May you reach 100,000 rounds collected!
Okay, I was pooh-poohing the conspiracy theory about the gauntlet because well, it's a gauntlet, it's supposed to be difficult.
However, I decided to try a little experiment of my own: In the current gauntlet I'm in, I purposefully left out the ENG trait (no ENGs entered) and have only 1 MED trait. The result is that the last 14 matchups in a row either had ENG or MED, or had both. What kind of BS nonsense is that?
I don't expect I will be the only one analyzing this information. In fact, I hope there are others who are interested in it as well. The data is pretty exhaustive and should cover most, if not all, of the various gauntlet theories out there.
Perhaps I need to look more closely, but I didn't see tracking of merit and dilithium refreshes, player rank, or match selection.
Intriguing breakdown otherwise. Wish I could contribute, but using Microsoft products is against my religion. May you reach 100,000 rounds collected!
Correct. I'm, personally, uninterested in such metrics. I recommend opening a ticket on the iampicard tool to collect that information separately.
Okay, I was pooh-poohing the conspiracy theory about the gauntlet because well, it's a gauntlet, it's supposed to be difficult.
However, I decided to try a little experiment of my own: In the current gauntlet I'm in, I purposefully left out the ENG trait (no ENGs entered) and have only 1 MED trait. The result is that the last 14 matchups in a row either had ENG or MED, or had both. What kind of BS nonsense is that?
We (or at least some of us) know there is something wrong with gauntlet algorithm. imho There is no need for players to collect data to prove this.
if you read the forums, gauntlet needs major redesign.
DB most likely understand this is a problem, but they just don’t want to spend resources to address this as it won’t give the any revenue increase
Okay, I was pooh-poohing the conspiracy theory about the gauntlet because well, it's a gauntlet, it's supposed to be difficult.
However, I decided to try a little experiment of my own: In the current gauntlet I'm in, I purposefully left out the ENG trait (no ENGs entered) and have only 1 MED trait. The result is that the last 14 matchups in a row either had ENG or MED, or had both. What kind of BS nonsense is that?
We (or at least some of us) know there is something wrong with gauntlet algorithm. imho There is no need for players to collect data to prove this.
if you read the forums, gauntlet needs major redesign.
DB most likely understand this is a problem, but they just don’t want to spend resources to address this as it won’t give the any revenue increase
Okay, I was pooh-poohing the conspiracy theory about the gauntlet because well, it's a gauntlet, it's supposed to be difficult.
However, I decided to try a little experiment of my own: In the current gauntlet I'm in, I purposefully left out the ENG trait (no ENGs entered) and have only 1 MED trait. The result is that the last 14 matchups in a row either had ENG or MED, or had both. What kind of BS nonsense is that?
We (or at least some of us) know there is something wrong with gauntlet algorithm. imho There is no need for players to collect data to prove this.
if you read the forums, gauntlet needs major redesign.
DB most likely understand this is a problem, but they just don’t want to spend resources to address this as it won’t give the any revenue increase
Can you be more specific as to what you think is wrong? I'd be happy to try to put together an analysis that looks into it.
Okay, I was pooh-poohing the conspiracy theory about the gauntlet because well, it's a gauntlet, it's supposed to be difficult.
However, I decided to try a little experiment of my own: In the current gauntlet I'm in, I purposefully left out the ENG trait (no ENGs entered) and have only 1 MED trait. The result is that the last 14 matchups in a row either had ENG or MED, or had both. What kind of BS nonsense is that?
We (or at least some of us) know there is something wrong with gauntlet algorithm. imho There is no need for players to collect data to prove this.
if you read the forums, gauntlet needs major redesign.
DB most likely understand this is a problem, but they just don’t want to spend resources to address this as it won’t give the any revenue increase
Can you be more specific as to what you think is wrong? I'd be happy to try to put together an analysis that looks into it.
There are two good questions to be asked:
1) For a given set of gauntlet crew that is deficient in a particular skill, does RNGesus preferentially choose said deficient skill(s) for the next two days? Ex.: I have only one of five crew that has ENG. Does ENG show up more frequently in battles during this gauntlet? If there is a preference for a weak skill, is it based on the crew count with said skill or the total proficiency in that skill for the whole crew (such as The Caretaker being your only ENG crew or having both Gangster Spock and the Borg Queen)?
2) When a crew loses a round and is exhausted, do one or two of their skills preferentially show up in the following round? Ex.: I lose a round with The Keeper. Does the next skill pairing contain both MED and SCI, SCI and COM, or MED and COM? Do at least one of these three skills show up in the following round at a higher rate than random chance would suggest?
Again, it’s probably a memory trick but it feels like a huge middle finger when you lose a battle, exhaust a crew, and get that crew member’s exact skills showing up in the next round...or when you skimp on a skill and seem to get a ton of rounds featuring that skill.
Okay, I was pooh-poohing the conspiracy theory about the gauntlet because well, it's a gauntlet, it's supposed to be difficult.
However, I decided to try a little experiment of my own: In the current gauntlet I'm in, I purposefully left out the ENG trait (no ENGs entered) and have only 1 MED trait. The result is that the last 14 matchups in a row either had ENG or MED, or had both. What kind of BS nonsense is that?
We (or at least some of us) know there is something wrong with gauntlet algorithm. imho There is no need for players to collect data to prove this.
if you read the forums, gauntlet needs major redesign.
DB most likely understand this is a problem, but they just don’t want to spend resources to address this as it won’t give the any revenue increase
We've seen DB is not interested in doing anything until they are given indisputable proof. Unfortunately that means players need to collect the data to prove that. Look at the shuttle issue and the portal bug before that. DB ignored the issues for months. Then they were shown it had to be broken and they at least acknowledged the issue.
Okay, I was pooh-poohing the conspiracy theory about the gauntlet because well, it's a gauntlet, it's supposed to be difficult.
However, I decided to try a little experiment of my own: In the current gauntlet I'm in, I purposefully left out the ENG trait (no ENGs entered) and have only 1 MED trait. The result is that the last 14 matchups in a row either had ENG or MED, or had both. What kind of BS nonsense is that?
We (or at least some of us) know there is something wrong with gauntlet algorithm. imho There is no need for players to collect data to prove this.
if you read the forums, gauntlet needs major redesign.
DB most likely understand this is a problem, but they just don’t want to spend resources to address this as it won’t give the any revenue increase
Can you be more specific as to what you think is wrong? I'd be happy to try to put together an analysis that looks into it.
There are two good questions to be asked:
1) For a given set of gauntlet crew that is deficient in a particular skill, does RNGesus preferentially choose said deficient skill(s) for the next two days? Ex.: I have only one of five crew that has ENG. Does ENG show up more frequently in battles during this gauntlet? If there is a preference for a weak skill, is it based on the crew count with said skill or the total proficiency in that skill for the whole crew (such as The Caretaker being your only ENG crew or having both Gangster Spock and the Borg Queen)?
2) When a crew loses a round and is exhausted, do one or two of their skills preferentially show up in the following round? Ex.: I lose a round with The Keeper. Does the next skill pairing contain both MED and SCI, SCI and COM, or MED and COM? Do at least one of these three skills show up in the following round at a higher rate than random chance would suggest?
Again, it’s probably a memory trick but it feels like a huge middle finger when you lose a battle, exhaust a crew, and get that crew member’s exact skills showing up in the next round...or when you skimp on a skill and seem to get a ton of rounds featuring that skill.
So, like I said earlier, I'm not, personally, interested in match selection. I both highly doubt anything is "wrong" there and if there was, it would be extraordinarily difficult to prove. Trying to set up specific rules for what it should/not do is a very tall effort.
And request an update that tracks for each time new crew is presented (post-match or post-refresh):
Primary skill of the current gauntlet
Skill-pair presented
Point values for the six opponents presented
Expected strength of six opponents (I don't know that you care exactly which characters are presented, just how strong their rolls can be expected to be)
State of your current crew (fatigue/exhaustion of each character when the choices were presented)
Why I'm suspicious that this is actually an issue is because, simply over time, in a given gauntlet, you have more and more "bad" matchups as your crew gets weaker from use. The likelyhood of being presented a "bad" matchup is just going to increase with every time you use your crew. That's just how it's designed.
Edit: And, also, the worst-case scenario here just means I end up having to spend more merits to find a favorable matchup. At least the match choice is still transparent (even if it is "rigged")
One note that I want to add, it is incredibly likely that we will see win percentages that are slightly below the estimated win percentage. This is not due to a bias in the system, but is instead due to selection bias of voyages. With everyone trying to choose very high estimated win percentages, combined with the high variability of crits, you are going to see one sided distribution curves that will have a good chance of reducing the actual win percentage.
One note that I want to add, it is incredibly likely that we will see win percentages that are slightly below the estimated win percentage. This is not due to a bias in the system, but is instead due to selection bias of voyages. With everyone trying to choose very high estimated win percentages, combined with the high variability of crits, you are going to see one sided distribution curves that will have a good chance of reducing the actual win percentage.
Right now, we're actually outpacing iampicard's win expectation:
I have also added a third analysis sheet just for mirror matches. This looks at ALL mirror matches (even ones with characters that are fatigued or not fully equipped). With only 26 matches to look at, so far, it'll take a while before these results are anywhere close to meaningful.
One note that I want to add, it is incredibly likely that we will see win percentages that are slightly below the estimated win percentage. This is not due to a bias in the system, but is instead due to selection bias of voyages. With everyone trying to choose very high estimated win percentages, combined with the high variability of crits, you are going to see one sided distribution curves that will have a good chance of reducing the actual win percentage.
Right now, we're actually outpacing iampicard's win expectation:
I have also added a third analysis sheet just for mirror matches. This looks at ALL mirror matches (even ones with characters that are fatigued or not fully equipped. With only 26 matches to look at, so far, it'll take a while before these results are anywhere close to meaningful.
Update: that gauntlet round where I ran no Eng and just 1 med. It finished with 25 out of 28 rounds having either trait or both. It had gotten up to 18 in a row before it gave me CMD-SEC.
It's definitely not an error, it's rigged.
Update: that gauntlet round where I ran no Eng and just 1 med. It finished with 25 out of 28 rounds having either trait or both. It had gotten up to 18 in a row before it gave me CMD-SEC.
It's definitely not an error, it's rigged.
28 rounds is an incredibly small sample size. If either ENG or MED was the focused trait for the gauntlet (you didn't actually specify) then it would significantly skew your results. Additionally, you'd need to test it missing other trait combinations as well.
Update: that gauntlet round where I ran no Eng and just 1 med. It finished with 25 out of 28 rounds having either trait or both. It had gotten up to 18 in a row before it gave me CMD-SEC.
It's definitely not an error, it's rigged.
28 rounds is an incredibly small sample size. If either ENG or MED was the focused trait for the gauntlet (you didn't actually specify) then it would significantly skew your results. Additionally, you'd need to test it missing other trait combinations as well.
Update: that gauntlet round where I ran no Eng and just 1 med. It finished with 25 out of 28 rounds having either trait or both. It had gotten up to 18 in a row before it gave me CMD-SEC.
It's definitely not an error, it's rigged.
28 rounds is an incredibly small sample size. If either ENG or MED was the focused trait for the gauntlet (you didn't actually specify) then it would significantly skew your results. Additionally, you'd need to test it missing other trait combinations as well.
Some more stats we need to check up on then
Yes, you also need to develop a definition of what would be fair/expected. For example, in my analyses here, I have looked at crit rates, percentile distribution, and performance vs expectations for three different scenarios (all rounds, "reward" rounds, and mirror matches). Significant deviations from expected performance would warrant further investigation.
In this case, your hypothesis seems to be that if you are missing a particular skill on your team, you are more likely to be presented with match choices of that skill. To investigate this, you need to compare team composition to the skills that are presented following each match/refresh.
Outputs:
Featured skill for the gauntlet
Fatigue/Exhaustion level per character on the team
The skills covered by each character on the team
Skill combination presented
List of opponent targets presented (this wouldn't necessarily be needed for the above analysis, but could be used in further refinements)
With those numbers, you could set up a few views of the data. First, you'd want to assess ALL data. For a given featured skill, how often does it show up. When SEC is featured, how frequently is it presented? When MED is featured, how frequently is it presented? etc. If it is working, all of these things should be approximately identical. I'm not sure a detailed analysis has been done on how prevalent the featured skill is.
The next step is to isolate instances where the crew is missing a skill either via exhaustion or simply not being a part of the team. If the percentages deviate significantly from the control analysis, then your hypothesis might have legs.
So, I just had an unusual round of good RNG. I had a four head-to-heads in a row where the other guy had a 1 or 2% advantage on me, and I won them all. That's obviously a very small sample size, but it shows that the unlikely will happen less frequently than the likely, but it will still happen.
So, I just had an unusual round of good RNG. I had a four head-to-heads in a row where the other guy had a 1 or 2% advantage on me, and I won them all. That's obviously a very small sample size, but it shows that the unlikely will happen less frequently than the likely, but it will still happen.
I hope you were tracking. Out of the nearly 700 results so far, only 32 were mirror matches.
Update: that gauntlet round where I ran no Eng and just 1 med. It finished with 25 out of 28 rounds having either trait or both. It had gotten up to 18 in a row before it gave me CMD-SEC.
It's definitely not an error, it's rigged.
28 rounds is an incredibly small sample size. If either ENG or MED was the focused trait for the gauntlet (you didn't actually specify) then it would significantly skew your results. Additionally, you'd need to test it missing other trait combinations as well.
Yes, you're right. It was a spur of the moment thing as I entered that gauntlet. It's intriguing however, and I'm going to test it further. In that particular round, neither Eng or Med were the primary, which is why I went so heavy in the others. When I saw the unbalance, I thought, why not do a little test and see what happens?
If you have read the enough forum threads and played this game/gauntlet long enough, you don't need any more explanation or collecting any data.
1. When gauntlet starts, it is easy to win even without refresh.
But once you read top 50, your chance of losing is much much much bigger. You can lose 5/5 in 30s and be done for 4hr. Starts very easy and then suddenly it is like super hardcore hell level.
2. The crits/proficiency rolls are total BS. Same as #1.
I always choose the match where I have advantage: higher/better stats, higher crits, but there are always unbelievable loses that can only means it is rigged. feels like getting sucker punch and you just want to throw away the phone.
3. The round selection are designed to give you disadvantage: Skills that don't match your crews, Skills for the crew that you just lost, etc etc. I could refresh merits with 10 times and I still don't get the match that I want
4. Every 3rd match for the crate is always harder to win
5. Talking about merits, I have one thread asking about longest streak without any refresh (when in top 50), no one actually responded with video it can be done even though they did it.
6. The wall of same characters all the time esp combined with #3 above
7. others??
Gauntlet is not pure RNG, the algorithm there is messed up big time.
In fact when people blamed RNG, they are wrong, and they should blame the algorithm -- which means the developer that implemented that --- the designer that design it --- and the company that couldn't figure this out themselves and asking their players to prove it
To me the behold problem is a big problem for veteran players but players have options not to buy the pack since they require dil purchase that requires $$$.
OTOH Gauntlet is free and can get you legendary crew and free parts. Not playing is a loss, but playing is prob an even bigger "loss". FOMO forces ppl to play gauntlet whether they want it or not.
You can read how ppl respond when they play gauntlet:
1. try to make fun of it
2. just get the free stuff
3. turn the screen away and just click continue
4. etc etc
All in all, if DB gets rid gauntlet, it would have made my experience better.
If you have read the enough forum threads and played this game/gauntlet long enough, you don't need any more explanation or collecting any data.
1. When gauntlet starts, it is easy to win even without refresh.
But once you read top 50, your chance of losing is much much much bigger. You can lose 5/5 in 30s and be done for 4hr. Starts very easy and then suddenly it is like super hardcore hell level.
2. The crits/proficiency rolls are total BS. Same as #1.
I always choose the match where I have advantage: higher/better stats, higher crits, but there are always unbelievable loses that can only means it is rigged. feels like getting sucker punch and you just want to throw away the phone.
3. The round selection are designed to give you disadvantage: Skills that don't match your crews, Skills for the crew that you just lost, etc etc. I could refresh merits with 10 times and I still don't get the match that I want
4. Every 3rd match for the crate is always harder to win
5. Talking about merits, I have one thread asking about longest streak without any refresh (when in top 50), no one actually responded with video it can be done even though they did it.
6. The wall of same characters all the time esp combined with #3 above
7. others??
Gauntlet is not pure RNG, the algorithm there is messed up big time.
In fact when people blamed RNG, they are wrong, and they should blame the algorithm -- which means the developer that implemented that --- the designer that design it --- and the company that couldn't figure this out themselves and asking their players to prove it
To me the behold problem is a big problem for veteran players but players have options not to buy the pack since they require dil purchase that requires $$$.
OTOH Gauntlet is free and can get you legendary crew and free parts. Not playing is a loss, but playing is prob an even bigger "loss". FOMO forces ppl to play gauntlet whether they want it or not.
You can read how ppl respond when they play gauntlet:
1. try to make fun of it
2. just get the free stuff
3. turn the screen away and just click continue
4. etc etc
All in all, if DB gets rid gauntlet, it would have made my experience better.
It’s easy at first and then gets harder as you move up the ranks? Wow, who knew? /sarc
There are currently some good questions to be asked with regards to actual crit rate vs. stated crit rate, skill selection for matches immediately after a crew loses (or if someone is very weak in a particular skill across the five crew), and even which opponents are offered. A lot of data collection is happening right now and early conclusions are that it isn’t broken RNG or Evil DB pulling the strings to make us lose...just a lot of selection bias and other fun quirks of human psychology that make it seem worse than it is. More data needs to be collected, of course.
And if it is such a horrible, game-ruining experience for you...why participate? No daily missions require you to go through the meat grinder and the achievements are pretty out of whack with the effort required to get them, so why put yourself though such a terrible experience? Let people enjoy things.
If you have read the enough forum threads and played this game/gauntlet long enough, you don't need any more explanation or collecting any data.
1. When gauntlet starts, it is easy to win even without refresh.
But once you read top 50, your chance of losing is much much much bigger. You can lose 5/5 in 30s and be done for 4hr. Starts very easy and then suddenly it is like super hardcore hell level.
2. The crits/proficiency rolls are total BS. Same as #1.
I always choose the match where I have advantage: higher/better stats, higher crits, but there are always unbelievable loses that can only means it is rigged. feels like getting sucker punch and you just want to throw away the phone.
3. The round selection are designed to give you disadvantage: Skills that don't match your crews, Skills for the crew that you just lost, etc etc. I could refresh merits with 10 times and I still don't get the match that I want
4. Every 3rd match for the crate is always harder to win
5. Talking about merits, I have one thread asking about longest streak without any refresh (when in top 50), no one actually responded with video it can be done even though they did it.
6. The wall of same characters all the time esp combined with #3 above
7. others??
Gauntlet is not pure RNG, the algorithm there is messed up big time.
In fact when people blamed RNG, they are wrong, and they should blame the algorithm -- which means the developer that implemented that --- the designer that design it --- and the company that couldn't figure this out themselves and asking their players to prove it
To me the behold problem is a big problem for veteran players but players have options not to buy the pack since they require dil purchase that requires $$$.
OTOH Gauntlet is free and can get you legendary crew and free parts. Not playing is a loss, but playing is prob an even bigger "loss". FOMO forces ppl to play gauntlet whether they want it or not.
You can read how ppl respond when they play gauntlet:
1. try to make fun of it
2. just get the free stuff
3. turn the screen away and just click continue
4. etc etc
All in all, if DB gets rid gauntlet, it would have made my experience better.
Well, if you've read THIS thread, I am attempting to quantify some of these behaviors. The specifics on what people think is or isn't fair is really important from a data collection perspective. I have running total of around 750 gauntlet rounds worth of data.
This observation isn't surprising at all. At the start of the gauntlet, you're intermixed with lower and higher level crews. It is much easier to find easy matchups. As the gauntlet proceeds, the results get stratified where you're a lot more likely to be around people with similar crew strength to your own.
I'm assuming by "total BS" you mean you feel opponents get preferential rolls to the player. In this case, I would direct you to the "General Analysis" tab of my spreadsheet to see for yourself how those rolls have fallen in my analysis so far.
As I've said a few times, I am not planning on analyzing this aspect of the gauntlet, but I've laid out some specific steps you (or anyone else) could take to go a long ways towards showing this behavior is happening
This is also a part of my analysis. The "Reward Round" Analysis tab isolates JUST data for when streaks are at 2/5/8/etc. Obviously, this constitutes a smaller portion of the matches so the results are less statistically significant, but they are available to watch as they grow.
I'm not 100% sure how to respond to this comment (since it's more of a comment than an actual gripe about the system). The longest recorded streak in my analysis looks like it goes into the 90s, but I'm also not tracking DIL refreshes.
"Wall of Characters" is more of a design issue from DB's perspective than fairness in the rolls. If they create a strong gauntlet character and make it widely available (Surak/Mirror Picard are probalby the best examples) then everyone is going to use them. Sure, it's DB's fault that they released a character that is strong that people want to use when the gauntlet is favorable for that character, but that isn't exactly something that's directly wrong with the gauntlet
I plan on creating a followup post with a more detailed analysis/explanation of my findings once I get over 1000 rounds. If there's one part of the gauntlet that "looks" shady so far, it's that 25% crits are under performing across the board. It's running in about the 7th percentile against what a binomial distribution would expect. However, this observation is seen in both the player (23.63%) and opponent (23.82%) rolls.
EDIT: And to repeat, this is an ongoing collection. If you would like to contribute in helping my analysis of the gauntlet, I encourage you to use the iampicard tool and email me your exported results. All of this "how to" information is in the OP.
If you have read the enough forum threads and played this game/gauntlet long enough, you don't need any more explanation or collecting any data.
1. When gauntlet starts, it is easy to win even without refresh.
But once you read top 50, your chance of losing is much much much bigger. You can lose 5/5 in 30s and be done for 4hr. Starts very easy and then suddenly it is like super hardcore hell level.
2. The crits/proficiency rolls are total BS. Same as #1.
I always choose the match where I have advantage: higher/better stats, higher crits, but there are always unbelievable loses that can only means it is rigged. feels like getting sucker punch and you just want to throw away the phone.
3. The round selection are designed to give you disadvantage: Skills that don't match your crews, Skills for the crew that you just lost, etc etc. I could refresh merits with 10 times and I still don't get the match that I want
4. Every 3rd match for the crate is always harder to win
5. Talking about merits, I have one thread asking about longest streak without any refresh (when in top 50), no one actually responded with video it can be done even though they did it.
6. The wall of same characters all the time esp combined with #3 above
7. others??
Gauntlet is not pure RNG, the algorithm there is messed up big time.
In fact when people blamed RNG, they are wrong, and they should blame the algorithm -- which means the developer that implemented that --- the designer that design it --- and the company that couldn't figure this out themselves and asking their players to prove it
To me the behold problem is a big problem for veteran players but players have options not to buy the pack since they require dil purchase that requires $$$.
OTOH Gauntlet is free and can get you legendary crew and free parts. Not playing is a loss, but playing is prob an even bigger "loss". FOMO forces ppl to play gauntlet whether they want it or not.
You can read how ppl respond when they play gauntlet:
1. try to make fun of it
2. just get the free stuff
3. turn the screen away and just click continue
4. etc etc
All in all, if DB gets rid gauntlet, it would have made my experience better.
It’s easy at first and then gets harder as you move up the ranks? Wow, who knew? /sarc
There are currently some good questions to be asked with regards to actual crit rate vs. stated crit rate, skill selection for matches immediately after a crew loses (or if someone is very weak in a particular skill across the five crew), and even which opponents are offered. A lot of data collection is happening right now and early conclusions are that it isn’t broken RNG or Evil DB pulling the strings to make us lose...just a lot of selection bias and other fun quirks of human psychology that make it seem worse than it is. More data needs to be collected, of course.
And if it is such a horrible, game-ruining experience for you...why participate? No daily missions require you to go through the meat grinder and the achievements are pretty out of whack with the effort required to get them, so why put yourself though such a terrible experience? Let people enjoy things.
You should just say it without the /sarc /sarc
I have been on and off the game myself the past few months... sometimes I could miss gauntlet for a day or more, so I don't care much about it either now. I already had my locutus immortalized also, so I don't care about the 20k achievement
I enjoyed the game for a year and half myself.
Yes the terrible experience kills but I never said to anyone don't enjoy the game.
Even though I am on and off, I still play events that interest me and I still love grinding certain events for crew that I am interested in.
If you like to collect data, feel free to do that, I never said no.
IMO, it is the developer job to do that. Many successful companies do that so they can react and plan for better product before things turn south
But for me the point to play game is to play game, I have enough stuff with real life and work, and game is not for me to do another work. In other threads I admired ppl doing that and I thanked them for sharing info that help me play this game better.
Comments
Thanks for the screens, but I'm not manually entering all that. Plus, there are a number of data points iampicard tool tracks that would be impossible to extract from your screens.
They end up being nearly identical implementations. In terms of average rolls and what not, that distinction doesn't actually matter at all and it's me just being picky.
Perhaps I need to look more closely, but I didn't see tracking of merit and dilithium refreshes, player rank, or match selection.
Intriguing breakdown otherwise. Wish I could contribute, but using Microsoft products is against my religion. May you reach 100,000 rounds collected!
However, I decided to try a little experiment of my own: In the current gauntlet I'm in, I purposefully left out the ENG trait (no ENGs entered) and have only 1 MED trait. The result is that the last 14 matchups in a row either had ENG or MED, or had both. What kind of BS nonsense is that?
Correct. I'm, personally, uninterested in such metrics. I recommend opening a ticket on the iampicard tool to collect that information separately.
We (or at least some of us) know there is something wrong with gauntlet algorithm. imho There is no need for players to collect data to prove this.
if you read the forums, gauntlet needs major redesign.
DB most likely understand this is a problem, but they just don’t want to spend resources to address this as it won’t give the any revenue increase
I bet it was cmd primary too
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Can you be more specific as to what you think is wrong? I'd be happy to try to put together an analysis that looks into it.
There are two good questions to be asked:
1) For a given set of gauntlet crew that is deficient in a particular skill, does RNGesus preferentially choose said deficient skill(s) for the next two days? Ex.: I have only one of five crew that has ENG. Does ENG show up more frequently in battles during this gauntlet? If there is a preference for a weak skill, is it based on the crew count with said skill or the total proficiency in that skill for the whole crew (such as The Caretaker being your only ENG crew or having both Gangster Spock and the Borg Queen)?
2) When a crew loses a round and is exhausted, do one or two of their skills preferentially show up in the following round? Ex.: I lose a round with The Keeper. Does the next skill pairing contain both MED and SCI, SCI and COM, or MED and COM? Do at least one of these three skills show up in the following round at a higher rate than random chance would suggest?
Again, it’s probably a memory trick but it feels like a huge middle finger when you lose a battle, exhaust a crew, and get that crew member’s exact skills showing up in the next round...or when you skimp on a skill and seem to get a ton of rounds featuring that skill.
We've seen DB is not interested in doing anything until they are given indisputable proof. Unfortunately that means players need to collect the data to prove that. Look at the shuttle issue and the portal bug before that. DB ignored the issues for months. Then they were shown it had to be broken and they at least acknowledged the issue.
So, like I said earlier, I'm not, personally, interested in match selection. I both highly doubt anything is "wrong" there and if there was, it would be extraordinarily difficult to prove. Trying to set up specific rules for what it should/not do is a very tall effort.
That said, I recommend you go to this link:
https://github.com/IAmPicard/StarTrekTimelinesSpreadsheet/issues
And request an update that tracks for each time new crew is presented (post-match or post-refresh):
Why I'm suspicious that this is actually an issue is because, simply over time, in a given gauntlet, you have more and more "bad" matchups as your crew gets weaker from use. The likelyhood of being presented a "bad" matchup is just going to increase with every time you use your crew. That's just how it's designed.
Edit: And, also, the worst-case scenario here just means I end up having to spend more merits to find a favorable matchup. At least the match choice is still transparent (even if it is "rigged")
Right now, we're actually outpacing iampicard's win expectation:
I have also added a third analysis sheet just for mirror matches. This looks at ALL mirror matches (even ones with characters that are fatigued or not fully equipped). With only 26 matches to look at, so far, it'll take a while before these results are anywhere close to meaningful.
Wow, that is awesome work
It's definitely not an error, it's rigged.
28 rounds is an incredibly small sample size. If either ENG or MED was the focused trait for the gauntlet (you didn't actually specify) then it would significantly skew your results. Additionally, you'd need to test it missing other trait combinations as well.
Some more stats we need to check up on then
Check out our website to find out more:
https://wiki.tenforwardloungers.com/
Yes, you also need to develop a definition of what would be fair/expected. For example, in my analyses here, I have looked at crit rates, percentile distribution, and performance vs expectations for three different scenarios (all rounds, "reward" rounds, and mirror matches). Significant deviations from expected performance would warrant further investigation.
In this case, your hypothesis seems to be that if you are missing a particular skill on your team, you are more likely to be presented with match choices of that skill. To investigate this, you need to compare team composition to the skills that are presented following each match/refresh.
Outputs:
With those numbers, you could set up a few views of the data. First, you'd want to assess ALL data. For a given featured skill, how often does it show up. When SEC is featured, how frequently is it presented? When MED is featured, how frequently is it presented? etc. If it is working, all of these things should be approximately identical. I'm not sure a detailed analysis has been done on how prevalent the featured skill is.
The next step is to isolate instances where the crew is missing a skill either via exhaustion or simply not being a part of the team. If the percentages deviate significantly from the control analysis, then your hypothesis might have legs.
Captain Level: 95
VIP Level: 12
Unique Crew Immortalized: 525
Collections Completed: Vulcan, Ferengi, Borg, Romulan, Cardassian, Uncommon, Rare, Veteran, Common, Engineered, Physician, Innovator, Inspiring, Diplomat, Jury Rigger, Gauntlet Legends
I hope you were tracking. Out of the nearly 700 results so far, only 32 were mirror matches.
Yes, you're right. It was a spur of the moment thing as I entered that gauntlet. It's intriguing however, and I'm going to test it further. In that particular round, neither Eng or Med were the primary, which is why I went so heavy in the others. When I saw the unbalance, I thought, why not do a little test and see what happens?
In what manner? Can you please elaborate?
If you have read the enough forum threads and played this game/gauntlet long enough, you don't need any more explanation or collecting any data.
1. When gauntlet starts, it is easy to win even without refresh.
But once you read top 50, your chance of losing is much much much bigger. You can lose 5/5 in 30s and be done for 4hr. Starts very easy and then suddenly it is like super hardcore hell level.
2. The crits/proficiency rolls are total BS. Same as #1.
I always choose the match where I have advantage: higher/better stats, higher crits, but there are always unbelievable loses that can only means it is rigged. feels like getting sucker punch and you just want to throw away the phone.
3. The round selection are designed to give you disadvantage: Skills that don't match your crews, Skills for the crew that you just lost, etc etc. I could refresh merits with 10 times and I still don't get the match that I want
4. Every 3rd match for the crate is always harder to win
5. Talking about merits, I have one thread asking about longest streak without any refresh (when in top 50), no one actually responded with video it can be done even though they did it.
6. The wall of same characters all the time esp combined with #3 above
7. others??
Gauntlet is not pure RNG, the algorithm there is messed up big time.
In fact when people blamed RNG, they are wrong, and they should blame the algorithm -- which means the developer that implemented that --- the designer that design it --- and the company that couldn't figure this out themselves and asking their players to prove it
To me the behold problem is a big problem for veteran players but players have options not to buy the pack since they require dil purchase that requires $$$.
OTOH Gauntlet is free and can get you legendary crew and free parts. Not playing is a loss, but playing is prob an even bigger "loss". FOMO forces ppl to play gauntlet whether they want it or not.
You can read how ppl respond when they play gauntlet:
1. try to make fun of it
2. just get the free stuff
3. turn the screen away and just click continue
4. etc etc
All in all, if DB gets rid gauntlet, it would have made my experience better.
It’s easy at first and then gets harder as you move up the ranks? Wow, who knew? /sarc
There are currently some good questions to be asked with regards to actual crit rate vs. stated crit rate, skill selection for matches immediately after a crew loses (or if someone is very weak in a particular skill across the five crew), and even which opponents are offered. A lot of data collection is happening right now and early conclusions are that it isn’t broken RNG or Evil DB pulling the strings to make us lose...just a lot of selection bias and other fun quirks of human psychology that make it seem worse than it is. More data needs to be collected, of course.
And if it is such a horrible, game-ruining experience for you...why participate? No daily missions require you to go through the meat grinder and the achievements are pretty out of whack with the effort required to get them, so why put yourself though such a terrible experience? Let people enjoy things.
Well, if you've read THIS thread, I am attempting to quantify some of these behaviors. The specifics on what people think is or isn't fair is really important from a data collection perspective. I have running total of around 750 gauntlet rounds worth of data.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sYlf7A6M-kaENSsxoHhiUrpNuv71zNRz50Izi-ARB6E/edit#gid=0
To take your specific points:
I plan on creating a followup post with a more detailed analysis/explanation of my findings once I get over 1000 rounds. If there's one part of the gauntlet that "looks" shady so far, it's that 25% crits are under performing across the board. It's running in about the 7th percentile against what a binomial distribution would expect. However, this observation is seen in both the player (23.63%) and opponent (23.82%) rolls.
EDIT: And to repeat, this is an ongoing collection. If you would like to contribute in helping my analysis of the gauntlet, I encourage you to use the iampicard tool and email me your exported results. All of this "how to" information is in the OP.
You should just say it without the /sarc /sarc
I have been on and off the game myself the past few months... sometimes I could miss gauntlet for a day or more, so I don't care much about it either now. I already had my locutus immortalized also, so I don't care about the 20k achievement
I enjoyed the game for a year and half myself.
Yes the terrible experience kills but I never said to anyone don't enjoy the game.
Even though I am on and off, I still play events that interest me and I still love grinding certain events for crew that I am interested in.
If you like to collect data, feel free to do that, I never said no.
IMO, it is the developer job to do that. Many successful companies do that so they can react and plan for better product before things turn south
But for me the point to play game is to play game, I have enough stuff with real life and work, and game is not for me to do another work. In other threads I admired ppl doing that and I thanked them for sharing info that help me play this game better.