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Voyage Question

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  • DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2019
    To show the utility of the Formula, when it is useful:

    I currently have 2,619 Anti-Matter at 4:19.

    Using the formula I get:

    2600/22=118.18 repeating minutes.

    I have 101 minutes to go, so I know that it should be safe. {+17 minutes}

    I'll do a few more checkpoints if I remember, to see if the minutes go up or down.


    EDIT: At 4:37, I have 2422.

    2400/22=109+. 83 minutes left, and got 109 by the formula. {+26 Minutes}

    EDIT: At 5:18 I have 1,824.
    1800/22=81+. 42 Minutes left, and got 81+ minutes left I can do. {+39 minutes}

    EDIT: At 5:33, 1,595 Anti-Matter left.

    1500/22=68 minutes. 27 minutes to go, 68 left I can do safely. {+41 minutes}





    "The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    AviTrek wrote: »
    You guys are talking past each other. The question is about planning a voyage at the start and improving a current best of of 10:48 to hit 11 hours. The answer being given is the general AM burn formula to indicate how long a voyage will last once all skills start to fail.

    The answer is correct, but is answering a completely unrelated question to the topic at hand.

    Back to the original question. Yes improving a 3rd skill will help extend the overall voyage length. That will be true for all voyages. If that third good skill occurs 15% of the time instead of 10% or 7% you will be lucky and do better.

    But unless you are running a monte carlo simulation to optimize your voyage, the difference between 12% or 20% is irrelevant. Give some more stats to your third skill and send your voyage. You're not deciding what that total amount should be before looking to improve skill 4-6.

    I did misunderstand. I thought banjo was asking "Can I make another 12 minutes from 10:48?" having REACHED 10:48 in a current Voyage. Sorry, Brother Banjo!!!!!


    I see I could have been clearer. The stars will align someday

  • ~peregrine~~peregrine~ ✭✭✭✭✭
    Okay. To avoid heavy maths, this is what I do:

    1. Maximize/equalize primary & secondary skills (I know, 35/25, but bear with me), then adjust those downward to equalize tertiaries.

    2. Divide secondary by 21. That is how many minutes I can go before worrying about skills failing & AM consumption.

    3. After all skills start failing, divide AM by 22, then subtract 3 minutes, then monitor closely.

    4. If unable to monitor, just recall after last dilemma & recycle.

    @Peachtree Rex once wrote that three 6-hour Voyages are better than two 8-hour. I am beginning to agree, given the paucity of useable (to me) crew that drop.

    Sorry for rambling. ☮️
    "In the short run, the game defines the players. But in the long run, it's us players who define the game." — Nicky Case, The Evolution of Trust
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Okay. To avoid heavy maths, this is what I do:

    1. Maximize/equalize primary & secondary skills (I know, 35/25, but bear with me), then adjust those downward to equalize tertiaries.

    2. Divide secondary by 21. That is how many minutes I can go before worrying about skills failing & AM consumption.

    3. After all skills start failing, divide AM by 22, then subtract 3 minutes, then monitor closely.

    4. If unable to monitor, just recall after last dilemma & recycle.

    @Peachtree Rex once wrote that three 6-hour Voyages are better than two 8-hour. I am beginning to agree, given the paucity of useable (to me) crew that drop.

    Sorry for rambling. ☮️

    I totally agree about the three 6 hour being better than 2 eight hour, but now I’m on a mission. My strategy has became first and foremost getting the gold and silver skills to 13,000. A voyage will never get to 11 hours if the main skills can’t survive that long. Next step is to look for a tertiary I can inflate, hoping to catch that lightning in a bottle and inflate the one that occurs third most. Now another decent question....is it better to try to catch that featured trait and get another 25 AM, or is it wiser to go with someone that may have100-200 more skill points at the expense of hitting that featured trait?
  • ~peregrine~~peregrine~ ✭✭✭✭✭
    Banjo1012 wrote: »
    Okay. To avoid heavy maths, this is what I do:

    1. Maximize/equalize primary & secondary skills (I know, 35/25, but bear with me), then adjust those downward to equalize tertiaries.

    2. Divide secondary by 21. That is how many minutes I can go before worrying about skills failing & AM consumption.

    3. After all skills start failing, divide AM by 22, then subtract 3 minutes, then monitor closely.

    4. If unable to monitor, just recall after last dilemma & recycle.

    @Peachtree Rex once wrote that three 6-hour Voyages are better than two 8-hour. I am beginning to agree, given the paucity of useable (to me) crew that drop.

    Sorry for rambling. ☮️

    I totally agree about the three 6 hour being better than 2 eight hour, but now I’m on a mission. My strategy has became first and foremost getting the gold and silver skills to 13,000. A voyage will never get to 11 hours if the main skills can’t survive that long. Next step is to look for a tertiary I can inflate, hoping to catch that lightning in a bottle and inflate the one that occurs third most. Now another decent question....is it better to try to catch that featured trait and get another 25 AM, or is it wiser to go with someone that may have100-200 more skill points at the expense of hitting that featured trait?

    25 AM = 1 minute, +/- depending on where it falls in the Hazard cycle.

    (conservative) 100 skill points on primary/secondary yields 4 minutes.

    Given the goal, ignore the trait & take the skill points, methinks. And when you reach it, please share your skill numbers & starting AM, because I am nosy. 🖖🏻
    "In the short run, the game defines the players. But in the long run, it's us players who define the game." — Nicky Case, The Evolution of Trust
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Banjo1012 wrote: »
    Okay. To avoid heavy maths, this is what I do:

    1. Maximize/equalize primary & secondary skills (I know, 35/25, but bear with me), then adjust those downward to equalize tertiaries.

    2. Divide secondary by 21. That is how many minutes I can go before worrying about skills failing & AM consumption.

    3. After all skills start failing, divide AM by 22, then subtract 3 minutes, then monitor closely.

    4. If unable to monitor, just recall after last dilemma & recycle.

    @Peachtree Rex once wrote that three 6-hour Voyages are better than two 8-hour. I am beginning to agree, given the paucity of useable (to me) crew that drop.

    Sorry for rambling. ☮️

    I totally agree about the three 6 hour being better than 2 eight hour, but now I’m on a mission. My strategy has became first and foremost getting the gold and silver skills to 13,000. A voyage will never get to 11 hours if the main skills can’t survive that long. Next step is to look for a tertiary I can inflate, hoping to catch that lightning in a bottle and inflate the one that occurs third most. Now another decent question....is it better to try to catch that featured trait and get another 25 AM, or is it wiser to go with someone that may have100-200 more skill points at the expense of hitting that featured trait?

    25 AM = 1 minute, +/- depending on where it falls in the Hazard cycle.

    (conservative) 100 skill points on primary/secondary yields 4 minutes.

    Given the goal, ignore the trait & take the skill points, methinks. And when you reach it, please share your skill numbers & starting AM, because I am nosy. 🖖🏻

    I was thinking the same thing but wanted some verification from others. Thank you for that and I most certainly will share should I reach that plateau
  • The thought behind my original post was basically wondering if I got the tertiary skills, say com/dip/sec over 10k, and the primary and secondary skills, say eng/sci to 6-7k, would that yield a similar or better voyage length than focusing all the crew on getting the primary and secondary as high as possible?

    Right now i can hit 8 hrs with no problem but that's about it, so maybe the question really doesn't matter at that voyage length.
  • Synthetic CommanderSynthetic Commander ✭✭✭✭✭
    No Falken Maze that won't work, a few different lunatics (people with a LOT more patience and diligence than me) on this forum have tracked large amounts of data from multiple players in the past and confirmed that most of the time, the primary and secondary skills will hit much more than the rest of them. There will be very rare bad RNG roll occasions when they are CLOSE to the other skills, but I am not sure I've seen a single instance of someone showing data where a voyage had a primary/secondary skill LOWER than the average 10% the rest of them get. I'd never set up a voyage just for the extremely low chance of that happening.

    I know I'm asking you to take my word for it instead of searching the forum to find a link to these past data results, but please take my word for it I've seen spreadsheets with a bunch of stored user data for past run voyages on them used to calculate various things. Also seen it for shuttle stats.
  • I appreciate the helpful advice, Synthetic Commander!
  • Average GuyAverage Guy ✭✭✭✭
    Banjo1012 wrote: »
    Banjo1012 wrote: »
    AviTrek wrote: »
    If you're interested in maximizing your average return over multiple voyages, then it's not worth the gamble. But if you're goal is something like break 10/11 hours for the first time without a refill, then the gamble is worth it. You may only be right 1/4 times, but if you just want to hit your best score, then being right once is all it takes.

    That being said, I don't really know how fine grained you're getting with your selection that there is a difference between expecting a stat to be 12% vs 10%. I may be happy to let my third skill approach the points of my second skill to hope for the best, but I'm not thinking about what it means for the skill to come up 10% vs 12% vs 20%.

    I’m less than 12 minutes away. 12% versus 10% or 7% could make the difference

    Simple "safe" way to figure the following formula:

    Remaining Anti-Matter divided by 22 equals minimum minutes you can go.

    For twelve minutes, you would reverse it.

    Twelve minutes times twenty-two equals 264 minimum Anti-matter to be safe.

    {The normal divisor is 21, but many of us use 22 just for "padding" to make sure.}

    You didn’t finish. At 10:48 will that extra percentage provide those 12 needed minutes?

    Stack it with the most number of voyage points you can (especially main stats) and see if you have any more stat bonuses you can work towards to boost your total voyage scores (base or proficiency).
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    So Here’s my last voyage, pulled in early due to event starting but 8 hours which is a good sample length. As you can see, those distributions are certainly not 10%, 10%, 10%, 10%

    1uu7ygbsx383.png
  • Commander SinclairCommander Sinclair ✭✭✭✭✭
    The thought behind my original post was basically wondering if I got the tertiary skills, say com/dip/sec over 10k, and the primary and secondary skills, say eng/sci to 6-7k, would that yield a similar or better voyage length than focusing all the crew on getting the primary and secondary as high as possible?

    Right now i can hit 8 hrs with no problem but that's about it, so maybe the question really doesn't matter at that voyage length.

    After tracking many dozens of Voyages, I have also began to see a pattern of the Secondary skill start to fall off before the Primary does.

    Let's say you have 11K/11K/9K/5K/5K/3K Voyage

    The Primary skill will continue to gain well into 10:30+ (doesn't matter if you had to revive or not)
    The Secondary Skill, even if it pops up hazards at it's 20-25% rate, fails far more often after about 9 hours than it succeeds. This leads me to believe there is more than just RNG going on, but rather something in the programming to curtail the hazard successes after a certain points with all skills.

    As you can see here, I passed a hazard once just before the 11 hour mark with the Primary skill.

    235zv246b4cz.jpg


    I have even tried a couple times going way overboard and doing like 10.5K/13.5K Primary/Secondary
    to test this, and the result gets me an overall shorter Voyage than if I kept them both at 11K+.

    I would personally love to see the algorithm involved to be able to test more and to see the theoretical max Voyage time.

    I am guessing if you could get your numbers up to 14K/12K/9K/9K/8K/5K (ish), you could hit 11-11:30. It's a hard ask, and you would have to pull a perfect voyage for your particular crew, but I think it could be done.
    I want to become a Dilionaire...
  • MiT SanoaMiT Sanoa ✭✭✭✭✭
    Today I constantly started to lose lots of hazards with 8870 points from 7:18. That is when I started watching, AM was quite drained already, it could have started earlier also. I was not using Gauntlet crew for this skill.

    I watched for around 20 minutes and found around 3/4 of the checks to fail, then had to recall it.

    Normal or weird?
    Wir, die Mirror Tribbles [MiT] haben freie Plätze zu vergeben. Kein Zwang und kein Stress, dafür aber Spaß, Discord und eine nette, hilfsbereite Gemeinschaft, incl. voll ausgebauter Starbase und täglich 700 ISM.
  • (HGH)Apollo(HGH)Apollo ✭✭✭✭✭
    Today I constantly started to lose lots of hazards with 8870 points from 7:18. That is when I started watching, AM was quite drained already, it could have started earlier also. I was not using Gauntlet crew for this skill.

    I watched for around 20 minutes and found around 3/4 of the checks to fail, then had to recall it.

    Normal or weird?

    That is normal. You want 9500 or higher in your primary and secondary to reliably get to 8 hrs.
    Let’s fly!
  • MiT SanoaMiT Sanoa ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2019
    Ok, this means 8870 was a safe bet until... 7:00 hours only?

    /edit: So far I assumed that 8870 shoud work until 8:00 at least with 75% from earlier observations with the 6 hour mark.
    Wir, die Mirror Tribbles [MiT] haben freie Plätze zu vergeben. Kein Zwang und kein Stress, dafür aber Spaß, Discord und eine nette, hilfsbereite Gemeinschaft, incl. voll ausgebauter Starbase und täglich 700 ISM.
  • DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ok, this means 8870 was a safe bet until... 7:00 hours only?

    /edit: So far I assumed that 8870 shoud work until 8:00 at least with 75% from earlier observations with the 6 hour mark.

    The amount most people go by is 1200 per hour.

    Seven hours would be around 8400 and eight hours would be around 9600.

    "The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
  • MiT SanoaMiT Sanoa ✭✭✭✭✭
    The amount most people go by is 1200 per hour.

    Seven hours would be around 8400 and eight hours would be around 9600.
    This is really good to know, I did not read this before. Thank you!
    Wir, die Mirror Tribbles [MiT] haben freie Plätze zu vergeben. Kein Zwang und kein Stress, dafür aber Spaß, Discord und eine nette, hilfsbereite Gemeinschaft, incl. voll ausgebauter Starbase und täglich 700 ISM.
  • DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    The amount most people go by is 1200 per hour.

    Seven hours would be around 8400 and eight hours would be around 9600.
    This is really good to know, I did not read this before. Thank you!

    What people here always say. I have usually had good luck going six hours with the Gold/Silver at 6000+ and not getting them to fail before 5 hours.

    This is where I am right now:

    y98sjtq1a5lz.jpg
    "The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
  • Dirk GundersonDirk Gunderson ✭✭✭✭✭
    The amount most people go by is 1200 per hour.

    Seven hours would be around 8400 and eight hours would be around 9600.
    This is really good to know, I did not read this before. Thank you!

    Do be careful to not drop your tertiary skills too much an an attempt to boost the primary and secondary skills - if they aren’t high enough, you’ll lose AM earlier in the voyage and have less to sustain you later on. I recalled my current voyage at just past 9 hours (and probably could have let it go 9:15 or maybe even 9:30 if I had the time to watch it carefully) with these skills:

    qfxa4i6nznrk.jpeg
  • muwoomuwoo ✭✭✭
    Great post, guys. Good information in here.
  • (HGH)Apollo(HGH)Apollo ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2019
    The amount most people go by is 1200 per hour.

    Seven hours would be around 8400 and eight hours would be around 9600.
    This is really good to know, I did not read this before. Thank you!

    Do be careful to not drop your tertiary skills too much an an attempt to boost the primary and secondary skills - if they aren’t high enough, you’ll lose AM earlier in the voyage and have less to sustain you later on. I recalled my current voyage at just past 9 hours (and probably could have let it go 9:15 or maybe even 9:30 if I had the time to watch it carefully) with these skills:

    qfxa4i6nznrk.jpeg

    Yes well said. If you can get your tertiary skills all at 4500 or higher you will not miss more than about three hazards before 4 hrs. If you can get them to 5000-5500 you should not miss any. Every two hrs that you do not fail any hazards you gain about 100 am. If you pass all hazards the first four hours you will have added about an extra 200 am to your voyage which helps quite a bit for long voyages.
    Let’s fly!
  • Mirror CartmanMirror Cartman ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2019
    Banjo1012 wrote: »
    I feel it’s 35, 25, 12, 10, 10, 7. I’m banking on this to get an 11 hour voyage. If I can guess the order right I may be able to do it

    1 tick of the clock is 20s. Every 28 ticks you get 6 hazards, and four lots of free stuff. Every 56 minutes you have 36 hazards, An 11 hour voyage will have just under 36*12= 432 hazards. If the non-silver and non-gold skills have a probability of 10% then you will see an average of 43 of each one of these skills per voyage. The statistical error is sqrt(43) = 6.5,

    So the 12,10,10,7 pattern you are seeing is just statistical error from the RNG.
  • Mirror CartmanMirror Cartman ✭✭✭✭✭
    My method or traits is to see who matches which traits first.

    e.g. If I put Guianne, Cornwell and Darth Bashir in, I check all the dip and med slots to see which if any match.

    When putting the lesser skills in, I don't look at individual skills, I look at the average, the higher the better. e.g. for an 8 hour voyage I need the average of to be at least 4000-5000.

    If e.g. I have a com/sec voyage, and I currently have med at 3000, and dip at 5000, and I have a choice of increasing med by 400 or dip by 800, with the other skills remaining the same, I will go for the larger increase in dip.
  • [SSR] GTMET[SSR] GTMET ✭✭✭✭✭
    The lower the variability the less likely you are to hit 11 hours, since on average, no one has the crew to hit 11 hours. The more variability you introduce the higher the chance you have of hitting an outlier result. Thus, I agree with Banjo, if you want to hit 11 hours, you need to build an unbalanced voyage and hope the RNG gods are in your favor.
  • Dirk GundersonDirk Gunderson ✭✭✭✭✭
    The amount most people go by is 1200 per hour.

    Seven hours would be around 8400 and eight hours would be around 9600.
    This is really good to know, I did not read this before. Thank you!

    Do be careful to not drop your tertiary skills too much an an attempt to boost the primary and secondary skills - if they aren’t high enough, you’ll lose AM earlier in the voyage and have less to sustain you later on. I recalled my current voyage at just past 9 hours (and probably could have let it go 9:15 or maybe even 9:30 if I had the time to watch it carefully) with these skills:

    qfxa4i6nznrk.jpeg

    Yes well said. If you can get your tertiary skills all at 4500 or higher you will not miss more than about three hazards before 4 hrs. If you can get them to 5000-5500 you should not miss any. Every two hrs that you do not fail any hazards you gain about 100 am. If you pass all hazards the first four hours you will have added about an extra 200 am to your voyage which helps quite a bit for long voyages.

    Thanks to the game giving me the same skills and ship trait even after a reset voyage, I was able to entirely replicate my voyage from yesterday and just recalled at 9:16, with enough AM to maybe push it to 9:25 or so:

    1be8jz0f49c7.png

    It’s hard to tell from the log when I started failing hazard checks because the log uses local time rather than voyage duration; given that I didn’t process each dilemma immediately as it came up, there are added delay hours that are going to be a PITA to try and remove without being able to export to a spreadsheet. Unspecific as it is, I had to scroll about halfway down to find the first hazard failure, so figure about 4 hours in.
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Another of the 4 lesser skill imbalance

    ixgby6umoqzj.png
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    xmxwtpcp4mt3.png
  • Commander SinclairCommander Sinclair ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 2019
    Voyage Breakdown

    Between all the comments on this thread and on past observations, I am now wondering how much the Proficiency of each crew per each skill plays into the hazards? And perhaps even the secondary traits that add AM? Also, since you only see one crew at a time during the Hazard, we have to assume each stage of the Hazard is only affected by that individual crew. (I had originally thought each Hazard would have been the combined Skill of that Crew, now I don't think so.)

    Think of any Away mission and how the Skills and Proficiency works...

    Step 1: Apply Basic Skill

    2qlwe8vjumjm.jpg

    Step 2: Apply Additional (Secondary) Skills if applicable

    mjhir8qq4otd.jpg

    Step 3: Apply Specialized Crew Trait:

    85dnsn7uvjx2.jpg

    Step 4: Apply Proficiency:

    a7ukgkucc0jg.jpg


    This is how I assume most of the game works, the away missions just give us the best graphic. Factions are the same, Space battles are the same, etc., we just can't see the proficiencies in action.

    Thus, I also assume Voyages are the same. This may be why there are 3+ stages to a Hazard, similar to the Away mission process.

    Here's how I believe the Hazards work, if there were actual Graphics supplied with them:

    Step 1: Identify Type of Hazard, and apply crew with appropriate Skill

    9lyx0qxtfkzz.jpg

    Step 2: Apply additional Traits

    2s35rz0kfa2i.jpg
    g6t97sfnwgsp.jpg

    Step 3: Apply Proficiency

    femb9pk66hkm.jpg

    Step 4: Final Result (Succeed/Fail)
    v8528stb26rz.jpg

    (Please ignore the obvious cut&paste from Spock's Away mission)

    While I know there is a chart for this somewhere, I am going to find it easier to setup my next Voyage with very specific crew that can maximize on the Proficiencies by looking them up individually, and see if that nets a better result both on the top and bottom ends. It will probably take me 20-30 minutes just to launch that Voyage, but what else am I going to do on a lazy Sunday? :wink:

    At least this has reinvigorated my enthusiasm for the game a bit after a bout of staleness.
    I want to become a Dilionaire...
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Voyage Breakdown

    Between all the comments on this thread and on past observations, I am now wondering how much the Proficiency of each crew per each skill plays into the hazards? And perhaps even the secondary traits that add AM? Also, since you only see one crew at a time during the Hazard, we have to assume each stage of the Hazard is only affected by that individual crew. (I had originally thought each Hazard would have been the combined Skill of that Crew, now I don't think so.)

    Think of any Away mission and how the Skills and Proficiency works...

    Step 1: Apply Basic Skill

    2qlwe8vjumjm.jpg

    Step 2: Apply Additional (Secondary) Skills if applicable

    mjhir8qq4otd.jpg

    Step 3: Apply Specialized Crew Trait:

    85dnsn7uvjx2.jpg

    Step 4: Apply Proficiency:

    a7ukgkucc0jg.jpg


    This is how I assume most of the game works, the away missions just give us the best graphic. Factions are the same, Space battles are the same, etc., we just can't see the proficiencies in action.

    Thus, I also assume Voyages are the same. This may be why there are 3+ stages to a Hazard, similar to the Away mission process.

    Here's how I believe the Hazards work, if there were actual Graphics supplied with them:

    Step 1: Identify Type of Hazard, and apply crew with appropriate Skill

    9lyx0qxtfkzz.jpg

    Step 2: Apply additional Traits

    2s35rz0kfa2i.jpg
    g6t97sfnwgsp.jpg

    Step 3: Apply Proficiency

    femb9pk66hkm.jpg

    Step 4: Final Result (Succeed/Fail)
    v8528stb26rz.jpg

    (Please ignore the obvious cut&paste from Spock's Away mission)

    While I know there is a chart for this somewhere, I am going to find it easier to setup my next Voyage with very specific crew that can maximize on the Proficiencies by looking them up individually, and see if that nets a better result both on the top and bottom ends. It will probably take me 20-30 minutes just to launch that Voyage, but what else am I going to do on a lazy Sunday? :wink:

    At least this has reinvigorated my enthusiasm for the game a bit after a bout of staleness.

    But then how can you pass a hazard at say 8 hours when you have 10000 at that skill but you can’t when you only have say 5000? If it picks one crew to use, I always have someone at the 5000 skill that’s just as good as someone at the 10000 skill
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