Between all the comments on this thread and on past observations, I am now wondering how much the Proficiency of each crew per each skill plays into the hazards? And perhaps even the secondary traits that add AM? Also, since you only see one crew at a time during the Hazard, we have to assume each stage of the Hazard is only affected by that individual crew. (I had originally thought each Hazard would have been the combined Skill of that Crew, now I don't think so.)
Think of any Away mission and how the Skills and Proficiency works...
Step 1: Apply Basic Skill
Step 2: Apply Additional (Secondary) Skills if applicable
Step 3: Apply Specialized Crew Trait:
Step 4: Apply Proficiency:
This is how I assume most of the game works, the away missions just give us the best graphic. Factions are the same, Space battles are the same, etc., we just can't see the proficiencies in action.
Thus, I also assume Voyages are the same. This may be why there are 3+ stages to a Hazard, similar to the Away mission process.
Here's how I believe the Hazards work, if there were actual Graphics supplied with them:
Step 1: Identify Type of Hazard, and apply crew with appropriate Skill
Step 2: Apply additional Traits
Step 3: Apply Proficiency
Step 4: Final Result (Succeed/Fail)
(Please ignore the obvious cut&paste from Spock's Away mission)
While I know there is a chart for this somewhere, I am going to find it easier to setup my next Voyage with very specific crew that can maximize on the Proficiencies by looking them up individually, and see if that nets a better result both on the top and bottom ends. It will probably take me 20-30 minutes just to launch that Voyage, but what else am I going to do on a lazy Sunday?
At least this has reinvigorated my enthusiasm for the game a bit after a bout of staleness.
But then how can you pass a hazard at say 8 hours when you have 10000 at that skill but you can’t when you only have say 5000? If it picks one crew to use, I always have someone at the 5000 skill that’s just as good as someone at the 10000 skill
Proficiency or something else must play a part though because there is some randomness on hazard success. A 12,500 command skill should pass all hazards until 10 hrs but it does not always. It can fail at about 9.5 hours. It can still fail but it fails at a smaller rate than a 12,000 command skill which fails at a smaller rate than 11,500 command skill and so on. There is a potential of hazard failure that is decreased by skill lvl but increased by time. The equation appears to be something like this:
Hazard Outcome = (Skill Amount) - R(1250 x Hours of Voyage)
With R being a limited Range of Randomness. A positive number result meaning a successful hazard outcome and a negative number result meaning a failed hazard outcome.
For example with a 12,500 command skill at a command hazard skill at 9 hrs 30 min hours it would be: (12,500) - R(1250 x 9.5) or put simply 12500 - R(11875). Whether it is successful is dependent on what R is but I think we can assume R exists. There is a limited Range of Randomness. 9 hrs 30 min is about the time a 12,500 skill can fail. My equations involve some assumptions but provided those assumptions are accurate or near accurate as is my math and we solve the equation of 12500 - R(11875) we would get a value for R of slightly more than 1.05 but I do not know what the range of R is except that it cannot exceed much more than 1.05 if I am correct . I also do not know the probability for the different values of range R is. These are my thoughts, not sure if they help or not but it is fun to think about.
Between all the comments on this thread and on past observations, I am now wondering how much the Proficiency of each crew per each skill plays into the hazards? And perhaps even the secondary traits that add AM? Also, since you only see one crew at a time during the Hazard, we have to assume each stage of the Hazard is only affected by that individual crew. (I had originally thought each Hazard would have been the combined Skill of that Crew, now I don't think so.)
Think of any Away mission and how the Skills and Proficiency works...
Step 1: Apply Basic Skill
Step 2: Apply Additional (Secondary) Skills if applicable
Step 3: Apply Specialized Crew Trait:
Step 4: Apply Proficiency:
This is how I assume most of the game works, the away missions just give us the best graphic. Factions are the same, Space battles are the same, etc., we just can't see the proficiencies in action.
Thus, I also assume Voyages are the same. This may be why there are 3+ stages to a Hazard, similar to the Away mission process.
Here's how I believe the Hazards work, if there were actual Graphics supplied with them:
Step 1: Identify Type of Hazard, and apply crew with appropriate Skill
Step 2: Apply additional Traits
Step 3: Apply Proficiency
Step 4: Final Result (Succeed/Fail)
(Please ignore the obvious cut&paste from Spock's Away mission)
While I know there is a chart for this somewhere, I am going to find it easier to setup my next Voyage with very specific crew that can maximize on the Proficiencies by looking them up individually, and see if that nets a better result both on the top and bottom ends. It will probably take me 20-30 minutes just to launch that Voyage, but what else am I going to do on a lazy Sunday?
At least this has reinvigorated my enthusiasm for the game a bit after a bout of staleness.
But then how can you pass a hazard at say 8 hours when you have 10000 at that skill but you can’t when you only have say 5000? If it picks one crew to use, I always have someone at the 5000 skill that’s just as good as someone at the 10000 skill
Proficiency or something else must play a part though because there is some randomness on hazard success. A 12,500 command skill should pass all hazards until 10 hrs but it does not. It can still fail but it fails and a smaller rate than a 12,000 command skill which fails at a smaller rate than 11,500 command skill and so on.
I have noticed this too: that these numbers aren’t exact guarantees
Looking at @(HGH)Apollo's formula, I think the success rates vary like faction missions. Each voyage skill total results in 100% success rate up to a certain point as if plotted on an x and y axis between voyage skill and time. When your skill plugs into the calculation, if you are on one side of the curve, you pass. Once your voyage skill level passes to the other side of the curve at a certain point, the probability becomes less than 100% and you can start failing. The curve is more likely non linear instead of linear at the upper end and that is probably why you can fail and then start passing again or why failure rates happen sooner than expected the longer your voyage. I have seen numbers mentioned between 1000-1200 skill points per hour but that doesn't hold up on longer voyages. I am sure the RNG factor in his formula would kick and be more meaningful as you get closer to and beyond that fail threshold which would change the failure rate between voyages, just to keep them interesting.
But then how can you pass a hazard at say 8 hours when you have 10000 at that skill but you can’t when you only have say 5000? If it picks one crew to use, I always have someone at the 5000 skill that’s just as good as someone at the 10000 skill
Proficiency or something else must play a part though because there is some randomness on hazard success. A 12,500 command skill should pass all hazards until 10 hrs but it does not. It can still fail but it fails and a smaller rate than a 12,000 command skill which fails at a smaller rate than 11,500 command skill and so on.
I have noticed this too: that these numbers aren’t exact guarantees
Okay, I agree with this, so perhaps it is combining not only the individual crew for that skill but all combined skills and all combined proficiencies (which I now believe to be the randomness @Banjo1012 refers to.)
Example: (Proficiencies in Yellow / Min-Max)
I made up a quick spreadsheet to get the combined Proficiencies, and I noticed a discrepancy between the Voyage number and ACTUAL Stats. (I took these stats directly from my Crew Roster, so they may not make sense to anyone else. The "Actual" refers to the Skill numbers in the game after the Starbase and Collection bonuses are added.)
I tried multiple ways to get these Voyage numbers, and I can't figure out where they are from.
Looking at @(HGH)Apollo's formula, I think the success rates vary like faction missions. Each voyage skill total results in 100% success rate up to a certain point as if plotted on an x and y axis between voyage skill and time. When your skill plugs into the calculation, if you are on one side of the curve, you pass. Once your voyage skill level passes to the other side of the curve at a certain point, the probability becomes less than 100% and you can start failing. The curve is more likely non linear instead of linear at the upper end and that is probably why you can fail and then start passing again or why failure rates happen sooner than expected the longer your voyage. I have seen numbers mentioned between 1000-1200 skill points per hour but that doesn't hold up on longer voyages. I am sure the RNG factor in his formula would kick and be more meaningful as you get closer to and beyond that fail threshold which would change the failure rate between voyages, just to keep them interesting.
This is specifically why I latched on to the idea of the proficiencies working as the RNG. The spread of the proficiencies is so large it is quite non-linear.
I believe the only real part of the equation we are missing at this point is the actual "point of diminishing returns", eg deductions of skills per X (X=time). I am guessing the deductions are per 10,
or 20 minute intervals, not per hour. (it's a Programmer thing, the log entries/events happen every 20 seconds, so if it were me, I would also do intervals of 20 on everything else related to time.)
But then how can you pass a hazard at say 8 hours when you have 10000 at that skill but you can’t when you only have say 5000? If it picks one crew to use, I always have someone at the 5000 skill that’s just as good as someone at the 10000 skill
Proficiency or something else must play a part though because there is some randomness on hazard success. A 12,500 command skill should pass all hazards until 10 hrs but it does not. It can still fail but it fails and a smaller rate than a 12,000 command skill which fails at a smaller rate than 11,500 command skill and so on.
I have noticed this too: that these numbers aren’t exact guarantees
Okay, I agree with this, so perhaps it is combining not only the individual crew for that skill but all combined skills and all combined proficiencies (which I now believe to be the randomness @Banjo1012 refers to.)
Example: (Proficiencies in Yellow / Min-Max)
I made up a quick spreadsheet to get the combined Proficiencies, and I noticed a discrepancy between the Voyage number and ACTUAL Stats. (I took these stats directly from my Crew Roster, so they may not make sense to anyone else. The "Actual" refers to the Skill numbers in the game after the Starbase and Collection bonuses are added.)
I tried multiple ways to get these Voyage numbers, and I can't figure out where they are from.
So in short, is what you’re saying is the voyage totals don’t equal what you get when you add up the crew numbers yourself?
I tried multiple ways to get these Voyage numbers, and I can't figure out where they are from.
DIP is Base of 801 + Avg Roll of 633 (437 + 829 ÷ 2) = 1434
SCI is Base of 717 + Avg Roll of 49 (20 + 78 ÷ 2) = 766
CMD is Base of 195 + Avg Roll of 308 (223 + 393 ÷ 2) = 503
I tried multiple ways to get these Voyage numbers, and I can't figure out where they are from.
DIP is Base of 801 + Avg Roll of 633 (437 + 829 ÷ 2) = 1434
SCI is Base of 717 + Avg Roll of 49 (20 + 78 ÷ 2) = 766
CMD is Base of 195 + Avg Roll of 308 (223 + 393 ÷ 2) = 503
Nice catch @[7TW] UnkieB. Now I am mad at you both for catching what I missed, and for completely and utterly blowing up my theory.
If they already took into account the proficiencies as a hard number and not the spread, then they really are leaving the rolls up to RNG. To me that's just not as nice of programming.
I tried multiple ways to get these Voyage numbers, and I can't figure out where they are from.
DIP is Base of 801 + Avg Roll of 633 (437 + 829 ÷ 2) = 1434
SCI is Base of 717 + Avg Roll of 49 (20 + 78 ÷ 2) = 766
CMD is Base of 195 + Avg Roll of 308 (223 + 393 ÷ 2) = 503
Not to be a stickler Meseeks but I believe you need an additional set of parentheses to make the equations correct otherwise you are dividing the second number in the parentheses by two before adding in the first number in the parentheses.
DIP is Base of 801 + Avg Roll of 633 ((437 + 829) ÷ 2) = 1434
SCI is Base of 717 + Avg Roll of 49 ((20 + 78) ÷ 2) = 766
CMD is Base of 195 + Avg Roll of 308 ((223 + 393) ÷ 2) = 503
When I looked at the iampicard source code, it was using the proficiency and simulating the roll. That's not too say that is what DB is doing, but it's possible that's what they do and that's why we see random win/losses happen.
When I looked at the iampicard source code, it was using the proficiency and simulating the roll. That's not too say that is what DB is doing, but it's possible that's what they do and that's why we see random win/losses happen.
That makes total sense as to how you can cover a little more than your skill points say and how you sometimes fall short of those skill points. So higher base, less prof is a more solid guarantee of what you see is what you get but lower base with higher prof gives you that chance that you could squeak out a little more. This is fascinating stuff!
When I looked at the iampicard source code, it was using the proficiency and simulating the roll. That's not too say that is what DB is doing, but it's possible that's what they do and that's why we see random win/losses happen.
I've gotten the same hazard twice in a row, failing it the first time and passing it the second, then failing it again when the same one came up again five minutes later.
When I looked at the iampicard source code, it was using the proficiency and simulating the roll. That's not too say that is what DB is doing, but it's possible that's what they do and that's why we see random win/losses happen.
I've gotten the same hazard twice in a row, failing it the first time and passing it the second, then failing it again when the same one came up again five minutes later.
My understanding (and really the only way to explain this behavior) is that there is a threshold based on time elapsed that works out to the 1200 or 1250 per hour and then on each skill check, it takes the base score and rolls a proficiency score and compares to this threshold.
The one question I have is if the proficiency score is rolled for each crew member based on their individual high and low or if the high and lows for the crew are added together first and then rolled.
While it doesn't change the average roll, this does impact the standard deviation. (e.g. picking a random number from 2 to 12, average is 7, all have a 1/11 chance and the standard deviation is 3.16, while rolling two 6 sided dice also has an average of 7, but a 2 or 12 is 1/36 while a 7 is 1/6 and the standard deviation is 2.42).
When I looked at the iampicard source code, it was using the proficiency and simulating the roll. That's not too say that is what DB is doing, but it's possible that's what they do and that's why we see random win/losses happen.
I've gotten the same hazard twice in a row, failing it the first time and passing it the second, then failing it again when the same one came up again five minutes later.
My understanding (and really the only way to explain this behavior) is that there is a threshold based on time elapsed that works out to the 1200 or 1250 per hour and then on each skill check, it takes the base score and rolls a proficiency score and compares to this threshold.
The one question I have is if the proficiency score is rolled for each crew member based on their individual high and low or if the high and lows for the crew are added together first and then rolled.
While it doesn't change the average roll, this does impact the standard deviation. (e.g. picking a random number from 2 to 12, average is 7, all have a 1/11 chance and the standard deviation is 3.16, while rolling two 6 sided dice also has an average of 7, but a 2 or 12 is 1/36 while a 7 is 1/6 and the standard deviation is 2.42).
If that were true, then they are adding proficiency into the equation TWICE. Once for the initial Skill numbers as a hard (non-random) add-on as Unkie pointed out, and a second time during each Hazard?
That would explain a lot. For example, I just had two identical Voyages back to back (as happens on occasion. Looking closer, all the individual traits were identical, the ship was the identical, but the PRI/SEC skills were flipped. Very interesting.)
The first one I went high on the proficiency ratings for each crew, the Second I went high on combined skill. (Personal note, I just sent a 3rd nearly identical Voyage out with all the same Skills & Traits, but different ship. Sometimes random is not random enough.)
Here are the results.
As you can see, proficiency wins over combined Skill. I have to laugh on the fact that I got O'Brien from the same Dilemma twice in a row, too. What are the odds of THAT with all the random elements, eh? (or IS IT random? )
As you may have surmised, the second one was about 40 minutes shorter. This observation makes me wonder again if proficiency is a key element to better Voyages, regardless of how they are implemented.
Proficiency: Win more on the PRI/SEC – Lose more on the low end, bye bye Red Shirts!
Combined Skill: Win less...er, overall, but save all the Red Shirts? LOL
When I looked at the iampicard source code, it was using the proficiency and simulating the roll. That's not too say that is what DB is doing, but it's possible that's what they do and that's why we see random win/losses happen.
I've gotten the same hazard twice in a row, failing it the first time and passing it the second, then failing it again when the same one came up again five minutes later.
My understanding (and really the only way to explain this behavior) is that there is a threshold based on time elapsed that works out to the 1200 or 1250 per hour and then on each skill check, it takes the base score and rolls a proficiency score and compares to this threshold.
The one question I have is if the proficiency score is rolled for each crew member based on their individual high and low or if the high and lows for the crew are added together first and then rolled.
While it doesn't change the average roll, this does impact the standard deviation. (e.g. picking a random number from 2 to 12, average is 7, all have a 1/11 chance and the standard deviation is 3.16, while rolling two 6 sided dice also has an average of 7, but a 2 or 12 is 1/36 while a 7 is 1/6 and the standard deviation is 2.42).
If that were true, then they are adding proficiency into the equation TWICE. Once for the initial Skill numbers as a hard (non-random) add-on as Unkie pointed out, and a second time during each Hazard?
That would explain a lot. For example, I just had two identical Voyages back to back (as happens on occasion. Looking closer, all the individual traits were identical, the ship was the identical, but the PRI/SEC skills were flipped. Very interesting.)
The first one I went high on the proficiency ratings for each crew, the Second I went high on combined skill. (Personal note, I just sent a 3rd nearly identical Voyage out with all the same Skills & Traits, but different ship. Sometimes random is not random enough.)
Here are the results.
As you can see, proficiency wins over combined Skill. I have to laugh on the fact that I got O'Brien from the same Dilemma twice in a row, too. What are the odds of THAT with all the random elements, eh? (or IS IT random? )
As you may have surmised, the second one was about 40 minutes shorter. This observation makes me wonder again if proficiency is a key element to better Voyages, regardless of how they are implemented.
Proficiency: Win more on the PRI/SEC – Lose more on the low end, bye bye Red Shirts!
Combined Skill: Win less...er, overall, but save all the Red Shirts? LOL
More to ponder...
@Commander Sinclair I thank you for opening up a whole new world of thought and discussion. This is very interesting to think about and something new and exciting to experiment with. A million awesomes to you!!
When I looked at the iampicard source code, it was using the proficiency and simulating the roll. That's not too say that is what DB is doing, but it's possible that's what they do and that's why we see random win/losses happen.
I've gotten the same hazard twice in a row, failing it the first time and passing it the second, then failing it again when the same one came up again five minutes later.
My understanding (and really the only way to explain this behavior) is that there is a threshold based on time elapsed that works out to the 1200 or 1250 per hour and then on each skill check, it takes the base score and rolls a proficiency score and compares to this threshold.
The one question I have is if the proficiency score is rolled for each crew member based on their individual high and low or if the high and lows for the crew are added together first and then rolled.
While it doesn't change the average roll, this does impact the standard deviation. (e.g. picking a random number from 2 to 12, average is 7, all have a 1/11 chance and the standard deviation is 3.16, while rolling two 6 sided dice also has an average of 7, but a 2 or 12 is 1/36 while a 7 is 1/6 and the standard deviation is 2.42).
If that were true, then they are adding proficiency into the equation TWICE. Once for the initial Skill numbers as a hard (non-random) add-on as Unkie pointed out, and a second time during each Hazard?
That would explain a lot. For example, I just had two identical Voyages back to back (as happens on occasion. Looking closer, all the individual traits were identical, the ship was the identical, but the PRI/SEC skills were flipped. Very interesting.)
The first one I went high on the proficiency ratings for each crew, the Second I went high on combined skill. (Personal note, I just sent a 3rd nearly identical Voyage out with all the same Skills & Traits, but different ship. Sometimes random is not random enough.)
Here are the results.
As you can see, proficiency wins over combined Skill. I have to laugh on the fact that I got O'Brien from the same Dilemma twice in a row, too. What are the odds of THAT with all the random elements, eh? (or IS IT random? )
As you may have surmised, the second one was about 40 minutes shorter. This observation makes me wonder again if proficiency is a key element to better Voyages, regardless of how they are implemented.
Proficiency: Win more on the PRI/SEC – Lose more on the low end, bye bye Red Shirts!
Combined Skill: Win less...er, overall, but save all the Red Shirts? LOL
More to ponder...
It may explain why all the Gauntlet crew are great on voyages since they also have high proficiencies.
When I looked at the iampicard source code, it was using the proficiency and simulating the roll. That's not too say that is what DB is doing, but it's possible that's what they do and that's why we see random win/losses happen.
I've gotten the same hazard twice in a row, failing it the first time and passing it the second, then failing it again when the same one came up again five minutes later.
My understanding (and really the only way to explain this behavior) is that there is a threshold based on time elapsed that works out to the 1200 or 1250 per hour and then on each skill check, it takes the base score and rolls a proficiency score and compares to this threshold.
The one question I have is if the proficiency score is rolled for each crew member based on their individual high and low or if the high and lows for the crew are added together first and then rolled.
While it doesn't change the average roll, this does impact the standard deviation. (e.g. picking a random number from 2 to 12, average is 7, all have a 1/11 chance and the standard deviation is 3.16, while rolling two 6 sided dice also has an average of 7, but a 2 or 12 is 1/36 while a 7 is 1/6 and the standard deviation is 2.42).
If that were true, then they are adding proficiency into the equation TWICE. Once for the initial Skill numbers as a hard (non-random) add-on as Unkie pointed out, and a second time during each Hazard?
That would explain a lot. For example, I just had two identical Voyages back to back (as happens on occasion. Looking closer, all the individual traits were identical, the ship was the identical, but the PRI/SEC skills were flipped. Very interesting.)
The first one I went high on the proficiency ratings for each crew, the Second I went high on combined skill. (Personal note, I just sent a 3rd nearly identical Voyage out with all the same Skills & Traits, but different ship. Sometimes random is not random enough.)
Here are the results.
As you can see, proficiency wins over combined Skill. I have to laugh on the fact that I got O'Brien from the same Dilemma twice in a row, too. What are the odds of THAT with all the random elements, eh? (or IS IT random? )
As you may have surmised, the second one was about 40 minutes shorter. This observation makes me wonder again if proficiency is a key element to better Voyages, regardless of how they are implemented.
Proficiency: Win more on the PRI/SEC – Lose more on the low end, bye bye Red Shirts!
Combined Skill: Win less...er, overall, but save all the Red Shirts? LOL
More to ponder...
It may explain why all the Gauntlet crew are great on voyages since they also have high proficiencies.
Strangely, My Gauntlet crew rarely make it on my Voyages, and I have them all & they are all immortalized. Locutus OR Guinan might find a spot in maybe 1 in 20 Voyages (each).
Comments
Hazard Outcome = (Skill Amount) - R(1250 x Hours of Voyage)
With R being a limited Range of Randomness. A positive number result meaning a successful hazard outcome and a negative number result meaning a failed hazard outcome.
For example with a 12,500 command skill at a command hazard skill at 9 hrs 30 min hours it would be: (12,500) - R(1250 x 9.5) or put simply 12500 - R(11875). Whether it is successful is dependent on what R is but I think we can assume R exists. There is a limited Range of Randomness. 9 hrs 30 min is about the time a 12,500 skill can fail. My equations involve some assumptions but provided those assumptions are accurate or near accurate as is my math and we solve the equation of 12500 - R(11875) we would get a value for R of slightly more than 1.05 but I do not know what the range of R is except that it cannot exceed much more than 1.05 if I am correct . I also do not know the probability for the different values of range R is. These are my thoughts, not sure if they help or not but it is fun to think about.
I have noticed this too: that these numbers aren’t exact guarantees
Okay, I agree with this, so perhaps it is combining not only the individual crew for that skill but all combined skills and all combined proficiencies (which I now believe to be the randomness @Banjo1012 refers to.)
Example: (Proficiencies in Yellow / Min-Max)
I made up a quick spreadsheet to get the combined Proficiencies, and I noticed a discrepancy between the Voyage number and ACTUAL Stats. (I took these stats directly from my Crew Roster, so they may not make sense to anyone else. The "Actual" refers to the Skill numbers in the game after the Starbase and Collection bonuses are added.)
I tried multiple ways to get these Voyage numbers, and I can't figure out where they are from.
This is specifically why I latched on to the idea of the proficiencies working as the RNG. The spread of the proficiencies is so large it is quite non-linear.
I believe the only real part of the equation we are missing at this point is the actual "point of diminishing returns", eg deductions of skills per X (X=time). I am guessing the deductions are per 10,
or 20 minute intervals, not per hour. (it's a Programmer thing, the log entries/events happen every 20 seconds, so if it were me, I would also do intervals of 20 on everything else related to time.)
So in short, is what you’re saying is the voyage totals don’t equal what you get when you add up the crew numbers yourself?
DIP is Base of 801 + Avg Roll of 633 (437 + 829 ÷ 2) = 1434
SCI is Base of 717 + Avg Roll of 49 (20 + 78 ÷ 2) = 766
CMD is Base of 195 + Avg Roll of 308 (223 + 393 ÷ 2) = 503
Nice catch @[7TW] UnkieB. Now I am mad at you both for catching what I missed, and for completely and utterly blowing up my theory.
If they already took into account the proficiencies as a hard number and not the spread, then they really are leaving the rolls up to RNG. To me that's just not as nice of programming.
BAH!
DIP is Base of 801 + Avg Roll of 633 ((437 + 829) ÷ 2) = 1434
SCI is Base of 717 + Avg Roll of 49 ((20 + 78) ÷ 2) = 766
CMD is Base of 195 + Avg Roll of 308 ((223 + 393) ÷ 2) = 503
That makes total sense as to how you can cover a little more than your skill points say and how you sometimes fall short of those skill points. So higher base, less prof is a more solid guarantee of what you see is what you get but lower base with higher prof gives you that chance that you could squeak out a little more. This is fascinating stuff!
I've gotten the same hazard twice in a row, failing it the first time and passing it the second, then failing it again when the same one came up again five minutes later.
My understanding (and really the only way to explain this behavior) is that there is a threshold based on time elapsed that works out to the 1200 or 1250 per hour and then on each skill check, it takes the base score and rolls a proficiency score and compares to this threshold.
The one question I have is if the proficiency score is rolled for each crew member based on their individual high and low or if the high and lows for the crew are added together first and then rolled.
While it doesn't change the average roll, this does impact the standard deviation. (e.g. picking a random number from 2 to 12, average is 7, all have a 1/11 chance and the standard deviation is 3.16, while rolling two 6 sided dice also has an average of 7, but a 2 or 12 is 1/36 while a 7 is 1/6 and the standard deviation is 2.42).
If that were true, then they are adding proficiency into the equation TWICE. Once for the initial Skill numbers as a hard (non-random) add-on as Unkie pointed out, and a second time during each Hazard?
That would explain a lot. For example, I just had two identical Voyages back to back (as happens on occasion. Looking closer, all the individual traits were identical, the ship was the identical, but the PRI/SEC skills were flipped. Very interesting.)
The first one I went high on the proficiency ratings for each crew, the Second I went high on combined skill. (Personal note, I just sent a 3rd nearly identical Voyage out with all the same Skills & Traits, but different ship. Sometimes random is not random enough.)
Here are the results.
As you can see, proficiency wins over combined Skill. I have to laugh on the fact that I got O'Brien from the same Dilemma twice in a row, too. What are the odds of THAT with all the random elements, eh? (or IS IT random?
As you may have surmised, the second one was about 40 minutes shorter. This observation makes me wonder again if proficiency is a key element to better Voyages, regardless of how they are implemented.
Proficiency: Win more on the PRI/SEC – Lose more on the low end, bye bye Red Shirts!
Combined Skill: Win less...er, overall, but save all the Red Shirts? LOL
More to ponder...
@Commander Sinclair I thank you for opening up a whole new world of thought and discussion. This is very interesting to think about and something new and exciting to experiment with. A million awesomes to you!!
It may explain why all the Gauntlet crew are great on voyages since they also have high proficiencies.
Strangely, My Gauntlet crew rarely make it on my Voyages, and I have them all & they are all immortalized. Locutus OR Guinan might find a spot in maybe 1 in 20 Voyages (each).