is it just me?
Team Zero
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in The Bridge
23 10x pulls today and only purples, statistically I should have 2 golds, didn't get one, which might have been acceptable depending on who/ choices, but nothing, just purples, nearly everyone first of the 10. Anyone getting my golds or are we all being ripped off?
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Honestly, no. Would have happily taken Troi, but that's got nothing to do with the card:-)
Only a tiny bit unlucky. Several times I've done 20-30 pulls without a gold and once well over 40. Other times I'll a couple in 10. It all averages out eventually.
Each and every portal pull gives the same chance of drawing a legendary regardless of how many or how few legendaries you have drawn in previous pulls. Each individual pull giving you a 1/10 chance of a legendary drop. Statistically over 23 pulls you were more likely than not to get at least one legendary but it was not guaranteed. But I sympathize, 23 pulls without a legendary stinks. Stinks so bad that were it me I would have some choice words for the game and those words would not be kind. I cannot prove it but sometimes it feels like the game gets stuck in a mode of giving only super rares with pulls. I see this with event packs that drop the same super rare every time many times in a row. When I feel like the game is stuck in this loop I exit the portal screen and reenter it. It seems to help. I haven't done it enoug to prove it but it seems to help. Good luck to you when next you do pulls. May the legendaries be plentiful with strong stats.
23, 10 packs is 230 cards total. At 1.27% you should have gotten 2 if not 3 legendary drops. Using normal human math.
However..... when i did the same thing with 23-25 10pks i was told by
DB C/S that “each individual card dropped has a 1.27% chance of being a legendary drop”, “it makes no difference how many you pull at one time, in a row, singles or 10pk” “it is a chance per card only”
So going by that non mathematical statement, technically a % does not matter bcuz you could get 500 cards at once and still no legendary.
The expected value of the 230 cards is 2.9 5*. But that doesn't mean that's a guarantee.
If the odds of a 5* are 1.27%, then the odds of not getting a 5* are 98.73%.
For 230 pulls, the odds of getting no 5* are .9873^230 = 5.29%
The odds are low, but not impossible. Still better than the odds of getting two 5* in a pack which people report happening plenty of times.
Opened 16 premium 10-pulls between yesterday and today:
Two Legendary beholds...
Five super-rare beholds...
the rest were straight drops.
I’ve even gotten 3 golds in a pack. I don’t even want to think about how long of a goldless streak is needed to offset that good luck.
So for 10x pulls let’s assume the chance of getting super rare is x% and the chance of getting a legendary is y%. Then x + y must be 100%, but what are x and y exactly? I don’t know, it’s a problem of DB not clearly specifying all the odds in the game as they have to do.
While it is true that chances are for a single attempt and they don’t change by large number of attempts, there are well known formulas to calculate the chance of some event happening exactly 1, 2, 3..x times out of N attempts. And while the chance of not happening at all (0 times) will never be 0 theoretically, in practice it will eventually get so close to 0 with the large number of attempts that we can safely consider it as 0. Especially that we don’t live in a theoretical world and I doubt DB use some physical white noice generator as the source for RNG. So basically I see that they have some real problems with their RNG implementation, as I see many users consistently get this problems with legendaries distribution (I did have them too)
Just wanted to bring some exact numbers. If we consider that 10x pull is just 10 1x pulls (it’s not, but let’s consider this for calculations), the chances for 23 10x pulls are:
1 legendary: 15%
2 legendaries: 23%
3 legendaries: 23%
4 legendaries: 16%
5 legendaries: 9.5%
6 legendaries: 4.6%
So that's 91.1%, leaving 8.9% to cover zero and >6, rough guess is that the chances of zero would be 3-4%. BTW, threshold pull makes it 24 without :-)
@AviTrek did the math already, the chance of zero is 5.29%.
In the aggregate, DB has stated their system works out as it should. I also think several players have done their own data research, and it is in threads somewhere on the forums. I, myself, don’t possess the statistical math drive to try to prove/disprove one way or another. I leave that to the “math folks” out there.
However, I look at some of the outcomes I experience on a regular basis and hope that someone out there is “hitting it like a caveman” at 1% odds and just raking in the loot. lol
We get straight 4* drop for the guarantee if it's needed. We get beholds when a 4+* crew drops randomly. Since we never see a 5* straight drop outside of event packs, the algorithm is likely perform 10 random drops, if there is a 4+* in the drops present the user with the results, if not then replace one of the selections with a 4*. Given that, the odds of a 5* are unchanged by the guarantee. It's only the odds of the 4* that need to account for the guarantee.
Event/Tuesday packs are different because they have the 5* guarantee chance. We don't have the data to know for sure what those odds are, although 10% is still a good estimate.
Was that an event pack? I have never see multiple 4* straight drops from a standard 10x premium pack.
Option 1: a single purple straight drop in the upper left and the other 9 slots are blues or schematics
Option 2: 1 or more beholds, with the beholds at the end of the pack and the first several slots blues and schematics. Once you get a behold all remaining slots are beholds.
I have never had a direct drop purple outside of the first slot, or a behold followed by non-behold cards.
This behavior does not apply to event or themed packs.
Ok. But you are using equations and true actual math.
As i stated above quite simply C/S told me directly that each card drop has a 1.27% CHANCE of being a legendary. They said the % is a CHANCE not a guarantee, and is NOT to be (calculated with or against or inclusive of previous, current or concurrent in a 10 pk) card drops. There is no actual math by % used. The advertised % is not a real % using math. It is a “chance”.
I have this answer bcuz i pulled 250 cards/25,10pks saved consecutively and got no legendary. So i sent a ticket. I was told quite clearly there is no math or equation used. Basically using a “%” leads ppl to assume a guaranteed legendary per 10 cards and imo is false advertising. Since there is no % calculation used when cards are dropping.
I could copy and paste that explanation but shan removes all C/S pasted posts.
Seriously folks i have been extremely frustrated at times by the droprates in premium, event, and special pks. If they would change the statement “% to chance” then that would clear it up. Unless it is a special pk that says “guaranteed” you cant expect anything.
I may be wrong about multiple straight drops though
So if they specify the odds for pulls, those odds should work close to what is expected by math. No-one can say “okay, we have the odds 1.27% but if you run it million times and this is not happening it still perfectly fine” cause it’s not.
I really don't know what you are saying with "true actual math" vs a "chance". This is all intro to probability. As CS told you, every card has a 1.27% chance of being a 5*. That is true for your first card or you 500th. There is no guarantee of a 5*. It doesn't matter if you're last card was a 5* or your last 300 were not 5*, the odds of a 5* on your next card is 1.27%.
The numbers we've given you are the chance to get no 5* after 230 chances. Or the chance to get a specific number of 5*. But as you see none of these are 100% or 0%. There is always a chance you do better and always a chance you do worse. 95% chance of getting a 5* doesn't mean you are guaranteed a 5*, it means that if you get that chance thousands of times, you will average a 5* in 95% of them over the long term. But any given attempt you still have that 5% chance of not getting a 5*.
I am becoming confused now, lol. What i mean by “no real” or reasonable math is that simply put, to most ppl a 1.27% basically equates to 1/100. This is why ppl complain when they pull 200 or 250 cards at once and get no 5* drop. The stated % makes it seem you should get at least 1 legendary per 100 cards, or at least 1-2 legendary drops when doing repetitive 10pks equaling 200-250 cards. (Which is the beginning statement/question of this thread.)
C/S quote: “Please note that the drop rates listed do not constitute a guarantee. For example, if you have a 1% chance of obtaining a Legendary Crew, this does not mean that you are assured one Legendary Crew within ten 10x packs; merely that each pull has a 1% chance of yeilding a Legendary.”
It clearly says “drop rate listed does not constitute guarantee” meaning NO expectation as you have suggested. And thats why ppl complain. Because they figure math which should be an expectation of around 1/100 for a legendary drop.
So they should fix the RNG drop rate to the stated % which could be expected as simply 1/100 cards or change % to “chance” so that ppl dont expect 1.27% in 100 cards.
Idk if i am misunderstanding you or not? Thats why i pasted the CS response which says no guarantee. To me that means no expectation of 1.27% drop rate can be implied.