What do you mean there is no actual math used? Odds specified in the app must be the real odds of RNG used. So we can actually expect, is it worth to deal with it or not. 1.27% doesn’t mean that in 80 pulls we receive a legendary, of course. But we can calculate expectations.
So if they specify the odds for pulls, those odds should work close to what is expected by math. No-one can say “okay, we have the odds 1.27% but if you run it million times and this is not happening it still perfectly fine” cause it’s not.
I am becoming confused now, lol. What i mean by “no real” or reasonable math is that simply put, to most ppl a 1.27% basically equates to 1/100. This is why ppl complain when they pull 200 or 250 cards at once and get no 5* drop. The stated % makes it seem you should get at least 1 legendary per 100 cards, or at least 1-2 legendary drops when doing repetitive 10pks equaling 200-250 cards. (Which is the beginning statement/question of this thread.)
C/S quote: “Please note that the drop rates listed do not constitute a guarantee. For example, if you have a 1% chance of obtaining a Legendary Crew, this does not mean that you are assured one Legendary Crew within ten 10x packs; merely that each pull has a 1% chance of yeilding a Legendary.”
It clearly says “drop rate listed does not constitute guarantee” meaning NO expectation as you have suggested. And thats why ppl complain. Because they figure math which should be an expectation of around 1/100 for a legendary drop.
So they should fix the RNG drop rate to the stated % which could be expected as simply 1/100 cards or change % to “chance” so that ppl dont expect 1.27% in 100 cards.
Idk if i am misunderstanding you or not? Thats why i pasted the CS response which says no guarantee. To me that means no expectation of 1.27% drop rate can be implied.
Yes, no guarantee. That's what 1.27% means. It is also what math says. This is all covered in intro to probability.
A coin flip is 50% chance to land on heads. If you flip a coin 4 times on average you should expect 2 heads. But if you flip a coin 4 times you might get no heads. In fact there is a 6.25% chance that you would get no heads.
That is all that is happening here. A random probability. Unfortunately you got 4 tails. That doesn't mean DB is lying. That doesn't mean 1.27% is incorrect. It means you got unlucky.
They said that “1% drop rate doesn’t mean you are guaranteed to get a legendary in 10 premium pulls”, and that’s true. In fact, chance of not getting something with 1% drop rate in 100 attempts is 36.6%, quite big, isn’t it? You correctly mention that people tend to misunderstand probabilities and think “chance to get = probability * number of attempts”, it doesn’t work like that.
But we’re dealing with larger numbers of pulls. And while the chance of being screwed still never equals zero technically, it will get closer and closer to 0 with increased numbers. For 200 attempts and 1% probability chance of being screwed is 13.3%. For 300 - 4.9%. With 1.27% numbers would be even smaller, I just want to show the principle.
So when you calculate after N pulls that the chance of not getting a legendary was 30%, that’s ok. When you calculate that the chance was 0.1%, and you still didn’t get it - that’s when questions to DB arise. Someone mentioned above that his fleet mate didn’t get a legendary in 60 premium pulls. Chance of such ‘megaluck’ is 0.04% And even that, if it happened just from time to time it could be understandable, but such things happen more often than it should.
One more point: I just calculated that the chance of getting 4 legendaries out of 10 premium pulls is slightly bigger than the chance of not getting a single legendary in 30 premium pulls (2.9% vs 2.1%)
The latter happens on a regular basis, but I’m not aware of people who got 4 legendaries out of 10 premium pulls.
What do you mean there is no actual math used? Odds specified in the app must be the real odds of RNG used. So we can actually expect, is it worth to deal with it or not. 1.27% doesn’t mean that in 80 pulls we receive a legendary, of course. But we can calculate expectations.
So if they specify the odds for pulls, those odds should work close to what is expected by math. No-one can say “okay, we have the odds 1.27% but if you run it million times and this is not happening it still perfectly fine” cause it’s not.
I am becoming confused now, lol. What i mean by “no real” or reasonable math is that simply put, to most ppl a 1.27% basically equates to 1/100. This is why ppl complain when they pull 200 or 250 cards at once and get no 5* drop. The stated % makes it seem you should get at least 1 legendary per 100 cards, or at least 1-2 legendary drops when doing repetitive 10pks equaling 200-250 cards. (Which is the beginning statement/question of this thread.)
C/S quote: “Please note that the drop rates listed do not constitute a guarantee. For example, if you have a 1% chance of obtaining a Legendary Crew, this does not mean that you are assured one Legendary Crew within ten 10x packs; merely that each pull has a 1% chance of yeilding a Legendary.”
It clearly says “drop rate listed does not constitute guarantee” meaning NO expectation as you have suggested. And thats why ppl complain. Because they figure math which should be an expectation of around 1/100 for a legendary drop.
So they should fix the RNG drop rate to the stated % which could be expected as simply 1/100 cards or change % to “chance” so that ppl dont expect 1.27% in 100 cards.
Idk if i am misunderstanding you or not? Thats why i pasted the CS response which says no guarantee. To me that means no expectation of 1.27% drop rate can be implied.
You seem to be contradicting yourself. You say:
"It clearly says “drop rate listed does not constitute guarantee”"
then:
"So they should fix the RNG drop rate to the stated % which could be expected"
The word expected has an implication that you anticipate a guaranteed result where there is none. Maybe it would be helpful if I explain that the 1.27% drop rate is an AVERAGE. That means, with a large data set you'd see the average rate of legend drops is 1.27% per drop. That does not mean after 127 drops, almost everyone should have a legend. That's just the AVERAGE. This means a significant portion of people will get LESS than the average odds.
Just because the 1.27% drop rate is not guaranteed, does not mean the drop rate does not exist at all. If the game does not explicitly state it's guaranteed (like 6500 dill pulls instead of 650dil pulls), you are exposed to chance. Just as when playing at a casino you are subject to chance for the number of sides of a dice in craps, or the number of numbers on a roulette wheel. The previous roulette wheel result or your last roll of the dice, have ZERO influence on the next spin/roll.
You can use statistics to estimate how likely it is for you to miss a legend in 250 rolls, but that's showing you how rare that scenario is, but still not impossible.
What do you mean there is no actual math used? Odds specified in the app must be the real odds of RNG used. So we can actually expect, is it worth to deal with it or not. 1.27% doesn’t mean that in 80 pulls we receive a legendary, of course. But we can calculate expectations.
So if they specify the odds for pulls, those odds should work close to what is expected by math. No-one can say “okay, we have the odds 1.27% but if you run it million times and this is not happening it still perfectly fine” cause it’s not.
I am becoming confused now, lol. What i mean by “no real” or reasonable math is that simply put, to most ppl a 1.27% basically equates to 1/100. This is why ppl complain when they pull 200 or 250 cards at once and get no 5* drop. The stated % makes it seem you should get at least 1 legendary per 100 cards, or at least 1-2 legendary drops when doing repetitive 10pks equaling 200-250 cards. (Which is the beginning statement/question of this thread.)
C/S quote: “Please note that the drop rates listed do not constitute a guarantee. For example, if you have a 1% chance of obtaining a Legendary Crew, this does not mean that you are assured one Legendary Crew within ten 10x packs; merely that each pull has a 1% chance of yeilding a Legendary.”
It clearly says “drop rate listed does not constitute guarantee” meaning NO expectation as you have suggested. And thats why ppl complain. Because they figure math which should be an expectation of around 1/100 for a legendary drop.
So they should fix the RNG drop rate to the stated % which could be expected as simply 1/100 cards or change % to “chance” so that ppl dont expect 1.27% in 100 cards.
Idk if i am misunderstanding you or not? Thats why i pasted the CS response which says no guarantee. To me that means no expectation of 1.27% drop rate can be implied.
You seem to be contradicting yourself. You say:
"It clearly says “drop rate listed does not constitute guarantee”"
then:
"So they should fix the RNG drop rate to the stated % which could be expected"
The word expected has an implication that you anticipate a guaranteed result where there is none. Maybe it would be helpful if I explain that the 1.27% drop rate is an AVERAGE. That means, with a large data set you'd see the average rate of legend drops is 1.27% per drop. That does not mean after 127 drops, almost everyone should have a legend. That's just the AVERAGE. This means a significant portion of people will get LESS than the average odds.
Just because the 1.27% drop rate is not guaranteed, does not mean the drop rate does not exist at all. If the game does not explicitly state it's guaranteed (like 6500 dill pulls instead of 650dil pulls), you are exposed to chance. Just as when playing at a casino you are subject to chance for the number of sides of a dice in craps, or the number of numbers on a roulette wheel. The previous roulette wheel result or your last roll of the dice, have ZERO influence on the next spin/roll.
You can use statistics to estimate how likely it is for you to miss a legend in 250 rolls, but that's showing you how rare that scenario is, but still not impossible.
Indeed. The dice do not care how many snake eyes you’ve rolled when you’re trying to get a lucky 7; the same is true for the 100,000-sided die with only 127 sides saying “drop a 5* crew” on them. As improbable as it would be to go fifty rolls in a row without a 7 (or a 5* crew), it’s not impossible....just on the very far end of the bell curve of possibilities, opposite the handful of screenshots we’ve seen where people get three or four legendaries in the same pack.
the same is true for the 100,000-sided die with only 127 sides saying “drop a 5* crew” on them.
It is a 10,000-sided die, but apart from that you are right.
Wir, die Mirror Tribbles [MiT] haben freie Plätze zu vergeben. Kein Zwang und kein Stress, dafür aber Spaß, Discord und eine nette, hilfsbereite Gemeinschaft, incl. voll ausgebauter Starbase und täglich 700 ISM.
One more point: I just calculated that the chance of getting 4 legendaries out of 10 premium pulls is slightly bigger than the chance of not getting a single legendary in 30 premium pulls (2.9% vs 2.1%)
The latter happens on a regular basis, but I’m not aware of people who got 4 legendaries out of 10 premium pulls.
It's also a question of what people come here to post. People complain about streaks of no 5*. But if they get 4 in a single pack or 3 packs in a row with a 5* they think they're lucky and move on. So the reports on this forum are a very biased sample. The only way to be sure is to record every pack pull yourself and then look at your trends over time.
One more point: I just calculated that the chance of getting 4 legendaries out of 10 premium pulls is slightly bigger than the chance of not getting a single legendary in 30 premium pulls (2.9% vs 2.1%)
The latter happens on a regular basis, but I’m not aware of people who got 4 legendaries out of 10 premium pulls.
It's also a question of what people come here to post. People complain about streaks of no 5*. But if they get 4 in a single pack or 3 packs in a row with a 5* they think they're lucky and move on. So the reports on this forum are a very biased sample. The only way to be sure is to record every pack pull yourself and then look at your trends over time.
Following the campaign pull I'm up to 41 without a gold, it may well be more as whatever the previous purchase/ campaign/ event award was would probably have given me what I considered reasonable for the purchase, but the last 2/3/4/5 may well have been blanks too.
One thing for sure now is that I won't be buying any more, with dil or cash. Event packs maybe if the gold is one of three guaranteed and one that I want.
So I just did 30 premium pulls and got 0 legendaries as well. And it’s really not the first time. On the other side, I’ve never been so lucky as getting 4 legendaries from 10 pulls, or whatever else lucky outcome with the same level of probability.
So I really want to see when these things equalize for me. Like, really-really want to see. For now, based on pure empiric experience of many pulls I did, I have no reasons to think that RNG in this game is really random distribution (or it may be really random, but the odds described in the game are wrong).
So I just did 30 premium pulls and got 0 legendaries as well. And it’s really not the first time. On the other side, I’ve never been so lucky as getting 4 legendaries from 10 pulls, or whatever else lucky outcome with the same level of probability.
So I really want to see when these things equalize for me. Like, really-really want to see. For now, based on pure empiric experience of many pulls I did, I have no reasons to think that RNG in this game is really random distribution (or it may be really random, but the odds described in the game are wrong).
Track all your pulls on a spreadsheet.
My feeling is that you'll be surprised about the number of times where you get a legendary from a pull, but because you're having fun it doesnt stick in your mind. How often have you perhaps just done a single 10 pull and got a gold straight away?
So I just did 30 premium pulls and got 0 legendaries as well. And it’s really not the first time. On the other side, I’ve never been so lucky as getting 4 legendaries from 10 pulls, or whatever else lucky outcome with the same level of probability.
So I really want to see when these things equalize for me. Like, really-really want to see. For now, based on pure empiric experience of many pulls I did, I have no reasons to think that RNG in this game is really random distribution (or it may be really random, but the odds described in the game are wrong).
Track all your pulls on a spreadsheet.
My feeling is that you'll be surprised about the number of times where you get a legendary from a pull, but because you're having fun it doesnt stick in your mind. How often have you perhaps just done a single 10 pull and got a gold straight away?
That happened to me only with specific packs with one legendary and two super rares in them. With regular premium pull that never happened. I remember quite clearly what and how often happened to me in this game. I got once a legendary from merit pull. I got once 3 legendaries from 10 premium pulls, that’s the best outcome for me so far. I got many times 2 legendaries per 10 pulls, and I got many times 0 legendaries per 10-20-30 pulls. Overall so far the balance is not on my side.
and to confirm 71 10x pulls without a sniff of a gold
Wow. The chance for this is 0,0001452%. Maybe THESE are the technical difficulties Shan was talking about in the other thread (RNG broken)?! At this point a ticket sounds legit to me.
Wir, die Mirror Tribbles [MiT] haben freie Plätze zu vergeben. Kein Zwang und kein Stress, dafür aber Spaß, Discord und eine nette, hilfsbereite Gemeinschaft, incl. voll ausgebauter Starbase und täglich 700 ISM.
and to confirm 71 10x pulls without a sniff of a gold
Wow. The chance for this is 0,0001452%. Maybe THESE are the technical difficulties Shan was talking about in the other thread (RNG broken)?! At this point a ticket sounds legit to me.
Won’t try to tie out exactly on the math but it is .01xx% or .0001xx not .0001xx%.
and to confirm 71 10x pulls without a sniff of a gold
Wow. The chance for this is 0,0001452%. Maybe THESE are the technical difficulties Shan was talking about in the other thread (RNG broken)?! At this point a ticket sounds legit to me.
Won’t try to tie out exactly on the math but it is .01xx% or .0001xx not .0001xx%.
Yes, you are absolutely right. Thanks!
It is still disturbing.
Wir, die Mirror Tribbles [MiT] haben freie Plätze zu vergeben. Kein Zwang und kein Stress, dafür aber Spaß, Discord und eine nette, hilfsbereite Gemeinschaft, incl. voll ausgebauter Starbase und täglich 700 ISM.
and to confirm 71 10x pulls without a sniff of a gold
I don’t post this to annoy, just to show it can go both ways.....from the last two Gauntlets I have received 7 single premium pulls and 3 single premium pulls from the loot boxes. In the first instance I got 3 beholds from those 7 pulls, two of which were Legendary. This allowed me to immortalise Proto Barclay and add third star to Con Picard. In the second instance I got 1 behold which added a third star to Ripper.
I do feel for you, 71 premium portal pulls with no legendary characters would be a bitter pill to swallow.
In hundreds, if not thousands, of normal premium non event or themed 10x pulls, they have always been as follows:
Option 1: a single purple straight drop in the upper left and the other 9 slots are blues or schematics
Option 2: 1 or more beholds, with the beholds at the end of the pack and the first several slots blues and schematics. Once you get a behold all remaining slots are beholds.
I have never had a direct drop purple outside of the first slot, or a behold followed by non-behold cards.
This behavior does not apply to event or themed packs.
I just had a behold of 3 immortalized 4* followed by Groundskeeper Boothby and some schematics.
In hundreds, if not thousands, of normal premium non event or themed 10x pulls, they have always been as follows:
Option 1: a single purple straight drop in the upper left and the other 9 slots are blues or schematics
Option 2: 1 or more beholds, with the beholds at the end of the pack and the first several slots blues and schematics. Once you get a behold all remaining slots are beholds.
I have never had a direct drop purple outside of the first slot, or a behold followed by non-behold cards.
This behavior does not apply to event or themed packs.
I just had a behold of 3 immortalized 4* followed by Groundskeeper Boothby and some schematics.
Was that a 10x pull from the regular premium portal, or was it a 650 dilithium pull of the “Staff Favorites” (themed) pack featuring Ambassador K'Ehleyr, among others?
"In the short run, the game defines the players. But in the long run, it's us players who define the game." — Nicky Case, The Evolution of Trust
What do you mean there is no actual math used? Odds specified in the app must be the real odds of RNG used. So we can actually expect, is it worth to deal with it or not. 1.27% doesn’t mean that in 80 pulls we receive a legendary, of course. But we can calculate expectations.
So if they specify the odds for pulls, those odds should work close to what is expected by math. No-one can say “okay, we have the odds 1.27% but if you run it million times and this is not happening it still perfectly fine” cause it’s not.
I am becoming confused now, lol. What i mean by “no real” or reasonable math is that simply put, to most ppl a 1.27% basically equates to 1/100. This is why ppl complain when they pull 200 or 250 cards at once and get no 5* drop. The stated % makes it seem you should get at least 1 legendary per 100 cards, or at least 1-2 legendary drops when doing repetitive 10pks equaling 200-250 cards. (Which is the beginning statement/question of this thread.)
C/S quote: “Please note that the drop rates listed do not constitute a guarantee. For example, if you have a 1% chance of obtaining a Legendary Crew, this does not mean that you are assured one Legendary Crew within ten 10x packs; merely that each pull has a 1% chance of yeilding a Legendary.”
It clearly says “drop rate listed does not constitute guarantee” meaning NO expectation as you have suggested. And thats why ppl complain. Because they figure math which should be an expectation of around 1/100 for a legendary drop.
So they should fix the RNG drop rate to the stated % which could be expected as simply 1/100 cards or change % to “chance” so that ppl dont expect 1.27% in 100 cards.
Idk if i am misunderstanding you or not? Thats why i pasted the CS response which says no guarantee. To me that means no expectation of 1.27% drop rate can be implied.
Yes, no guarantee. That's what 1.27% means. It is also what math says. This is all covered in intro to probability.
A coin flip is 50% chance to land on heads. If you flip a coin 4 times on average you should expect 2 heads. But if you flip a coin 4 times you might get no heads. In fact there is a 6.25% chance that you would get no heads.
That is all that is happening here. A random probability. Unfortunately you got 4 tails. That doesn't mean DB is lying. That doesn't mean 1.27% is incorrect. It means you got unlucky.
I flipped a quarter ten times to research this. Statistics tell us what might happen. The real world, what happens happens. I got Heads nine out of ten times, including eight in a row!!!!!
"The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
What do you mean there is no actual math used? Odds specified in the app must be the real odds of RNG used. So we can actually expect, is it worth to deal with it or not. 1.27% doesn’t mean that in 80 pulls we receive a legendary, of course. But we can calculate expectations.
So if they specify the odds for pulls, those odds should work close to what is expected by math. No-one can say “okay, we have the odds 1.27% but if you run it million times and this is not happening it still perfectly fine” cause it’s not.
I am becoming confused now, lol. What i mean by “no real” or reasonable math is that simply put, to most ppl a 1.27% basically equates to 1/100. This is why ppl complain when they pull 200 or 250 cards at once and get no 5* drop. The stated % makes it seem you should get at least 1 legendary per 100 cards, or at least 1-2 legendary drops when doing repetitive 10pks equaling 200-250 cards. (Which is the beginning statement/question of this thread.)
C/S quote: “Please note that the drop rates listed do not constitute a guarantee. For example, if you have a 1% chance of obtaining a Legendary Crew, this does not mean that you are assured one Legendary Crew within ten 10x packs; merely that each pull has a 1% chance of yeilding a Legendary.”
It clearly says “drop rate listed does not constitute guarantee” meaning NO expectation as you have suggested. And thats why ppl complain. Because they figure math which should be an expectation of around 1/100 for a legendary drop.
So they should fix the RNG drop rate to the stated % which could be expected as simply 1/100 cards or change % to “chance” so that ppl dont expect 1.27% in 100 cards.
Idk if i am misunderstanding you or not? Thats why i pasted the CS response which says no guarantee. To me that means no expectation of 1.27% drop rate can be implied.
Yes, no guarantee. That's what 1.27% means. It is also what math says. This is all covered in intro to probability.
A coin flip is 50% chance to land on heads. If you flip a coin 4 times on average you should expect 2 heads. But if you flip a coin 4 times you might get no heads. In fact there is a 6.25% chance that you would get no heads.
That is all that is happening here. A random probability. Unfortunately you got 4 tails. That doesn't mean DB is lying. That doesn't mean 1.27% is incorrect. It means you got unlucky.
I flipped a quarter ten times to research this. Statistics tell us what might happen. The real world, what happens happens. I got Heads nine out of ten times, including eight in a row!!!!!
That’s a well-known thing, if a coin is spun rather then tossed it’s hugely biased to land heavier side down. How exactly have you flipped a quarter?
In hundreds, if not thousands, of normal premium non event or themed 10x pulls, they have always been as follows:
Option 1: a single purple straight drop in the upper left and the other 9 slots are blues or schematics
Option 2: 1 or more beholds, with the beholds at the end of the pack and the first several slots blues and schematics. Once you get a behold all remaining slots are beholds.
I have never had a direct drop purple outside of the first slot, or a behold followed by non-behold cards.
This behavior does not apply to event or themed packs.
I just had a behold of 3 immortalized 4* followed by Groundskeeper Boothby and some schematics.
I pulled three packs. Two of them had a straight purple drop + two all-immortalized purple beholds (each). The third had a straight drop of Uhura. It was an unusual result, but not unwelcome lol
In hundreds, if not thousands, of normal premium non event or themed 10x pulls, they have always been as follows:
Option 1: a single purple straight drop in the upper left and the other 9 slots are blues or schematics
Option 2: 1 or more beholds, with the beholds at the end of the pack and the first several slots blues and schematics. Once you get a behold all remaining slots are beholds.
I have never had a direct drop purple outside of the first slot, or a behold followed by non-behold cards.
This behavior does not apply to event or themed packs.
I just had a behold of 3 immortalized 4* followed by Groundskeeper Boothby and some schematics.
Was that a 10x pull from the regular premium portal, or was it a 650 dilithium pull of the “Staff Favorites” (themed) pack featuring Ambassador K'Ehleyr, among others?
One of my saved premium portals. I know better than to spend dil on a "Staff Favorite".
In hundreds, if not thousands, of normal premium non event or themed 10x pulls, they have always been as follows:
Option 1: a single purple straight drop in the upper left and the other 9 slots are blues or schematics
Option 2: 1 or more beholds, with the beholds at the end of the pack and the first several slots blues and schematics. Once you get a behold all remaining slots are beholds.
I have never had a direct drop purple outside of the first slot, or a behold followed by non-behold cards.
This behavior does not apply to event or themed packs.
I just had a behold of 3 immortalized 4* followed by Groundskeeper Boothby and some schematics.
Was that a 10x pull from the regular premium portal, or was it a 650 dilithium pull of the “Staff Favorites” (themed) pack featuring Ambassador K'Ehleyr, among others?
One of my saved premium portals. I know better than to spend dil on a "Staff Favorite".
You can tell it wasn’t a saved premium portal since the screenshot has the buy again button on the bottom right. That button only shows up when you spend dil directly on a pack.
Speaking of rough luck. I can’t remember who it was, but there was a player whose first Gauntlet Legendary was the Locutus reward at 20k rounds. I can’t even imagine the odds on that...
“A committee is a cul-de-sac, down which good ideas are lured and quietly strangled.” —Mark TwainMEMBER: [BoB] Barrel of Bloodwine... We are recruiting and putting the “curv” in scurvy! Best Event Finish: #3 Honor Debt: Inconceivable...Honor Bank Account: Slowly building...
#72 slot 10 gold behold! Took Soval over Emotion Chip and Detective Datas for the arena EV, may or may not prove useful, but neither Data appears worthwhile investing time and resources in.
#72 slot 10 gold behold! Took Soval over Emotion Chip and Detective Datas for the arena EV, may or may not prove useful, but neither Data appears worthwhile investing time and resources in.
Congrats on your behold! You really should have 9 of them in your 72nd pull after all those goldless pulls
I’d personally take EC Data for gauntlet even that I already have Okona and La Forge, the more the better
Comments
Yes, no guarantee. That's what 1.27% means. It is also what math says. This is all covered in intro to probability.
A coin flip is 50% chance to land on heads. If you flip a coin 4 times on average you should expect 2 heads. But if you flip a coin 4 times you might get no heads. In fact there is a 6.25% chance that you would get no heads.
That is all that is happening here. A random probability. Unfortunately you got 4 tails. That doesn't mean DB is lying. That doesn't mean 1.27% is incorrect. It means you got unlucky.
But we’re dealing with larger numbers of pulls. And while the chance of being screwed still never equals zero technically, it will get closer and closer to 0 with increased numbers. For 200 attempts and 1% probability chance of being screwed is 13.3%. For 300 - 4.9%. With 1.27% numbers would be even smaller, I just want to show the principle.
So when you calculate after N pulls that the chance of not getting a legendary was 30%, that’s ok. When you calculate that the chance was 0.1%, and you still didn’t get it - that’s when questions to DB arise. Someone mentioned above that his fleet mate didn’t get a legendary in 60 premium pulls. Chance of such ‘megaluck’ is 0.04% And even that, if it happened just from time to time it could be understandable, but such things happen more often than it should.
The latter happens on a regular basis, but I’m not aware of people who got 4 legendaries out of 10 premium pulls.
You seem to be contradicting yourself. You say:
"It clearly says “drop rate listed does not constitute guarantee”"
then:
"So they should fix the RNG drop rate to the stated % which could be expected"
The word expected has an implication that you anticipate a guaranteed result where there is none. Maybe it would be helpful if I explain that the 1.27% drop rate is an AVERAGE. That means, with a large data set you'd see the average rate of legend drops is 1.27% per drop. That does not mean after 127 drops, almost everyone should have a legend. That's just the AVERAGE. This means a significant portion of people will get LESS than the average odds.
Just because the 1.27% drop rate is not guaranteed, does not mean the drop rate does not exist at all. If the game does not explicitly state it's guaranteed (like 6500 dill pulls instead of 650dil pulls), you are exposed to chance. Just as when playing at a casino you are subject to chance for the number of sides of a dice in craps, or the number of numbers on a roulette wheel. The previous roulette wheel result or your last roll of the dice, have ZERO influence on the next spin/roll.
You can use statistics to estimate how likely it is for you to miss a legend in 250 rolls, but that's showing you how rare that scenario is, but still not impossible.
Indeed. The dice do not care how many snake eyes you’ve rolled when you’re trying to get a lucky 7; the same is true for the 100,000-sided die with only 127 sides saying “drop a 5* crew” on them. As improbable as it would be to go fifty rolls in a row without a 7 (or a 5* crew), it’s not impossible....just on the very far end of the bell curve of possibilities, opposite the handful of screenshots we’ve seen where people get three or four legendaries in the same pack.
You’re absolutely right...one too many zeroes somehow made it into the calculation in my head.
I had that happen sometimes. But also long streaks of nothing. At least in my personal experiences these things even themselves out over time...
It's also a question of what people come here to post. People complain about streaks of no 5*. But if they get 4 in a single pack or 3 packs in a row with a 5* they think they're lucky and move on. So the reports on this forum are a very biased sample. The only way to be sure is to record every pack pull yourself and then look at your trends over time.
Following the campaign pull I'm up to 41 without a gold, it may well be more as whatever the previous purchase/ campaign/ event award was would probably have given me what I considered reasonable for the purchase, but the last 2/3/4/5 may well have been blanks too.
One thing for sure now is that I won't be buying any more, with dil or cash. Event packs maybe if the gold is one of three guaranteed and one that I want.
So I really want to see when these things equalize for me. Like, really-really want to see. For now, based on pure empiric experience of many pulls I did, I have no reasons to think that RNG in this game is really random distribution (or it may be really random, but the odds described in the game are wrong).
Track all your pulls on a spreadsheet.
My feeling is that you'll be surprised about the number of times where you get a legendary from a pull, but because you're having fun it doesnt stick in your mind. How often have you perhaps just done a single 10 pull and got a gold straight away?
That happened to me only with specific packs with one legendary and two super rares in them. With regular premium pull that never happened. I remember quite clearly what and how often happened to me in this game. I got once a legendary from merit pull. I got once 3 legendaries from 10 premium pulls, that’s the best outcome for me so far. I got many times 2 legendaries per 10 pulls, and I got many times 0 legendaries per 10-20-30 pulls. Overall so far the balance is not on my side.
I wonder if it’s a record or there was even unluckier streaks. Anyway, I feel your pain mate
Won’t try to tie out exactly on the math but it is .01xx% or .0001xx not .0001xx%.
It is still disturbing.
I don’t post this to annoy, just to show it can go both ways.....from the last two Gauntlets I have received 7 single premium pulls and 3 single premium pulls from the loot boxes. In the first instance I got 3 beholds from those 7 pulls, two of which were Legendary. This allowed me to immortalise Proto Barclay and add third star to Con Picard. In the second instance I got 1 behold which added a third star to Ripper.
I do feel for you, 71 premium portal pulls with no legendary characters would be a bitter pill to swallow.
I just had a behold of 3 immortalized 4* followed by Groundskeeper Boothby and some schematics.
Was that a 10x pull from the regular premium portal, or was it a 650 dilithium pull of the “Staff Favorites” (themed) pack featuring Ambassador K'Ehleyr, among others?
I flipped a quarter ten times to research this. Statistics tell us what might happen. The real world, what happens happens. I got Heads nine out of ten times, including eight in a row!!!!!
That’s a well-known thing, if a coin is spun rather then tossed it’s hugely biased to land heavier side down. How exactly have you flipped a quarter?
I pulled three packs. Two of them had a straight purple drop + two all-immortalized purple beholds (each). The third had a straight drop of Uhura. It was an unusual result, but not unwelcome lol
One of my saved premium portals. I know better than to spend dil on a "Staff Favorite".
You can tell it wasn’t a saved premium portal since the screenshot has the buy again button on the bottom right. That button only shows up when you spend dil directly on a pack.
#72 slot 10 gold behold! Took Soval over Emotion Chip and Detective Datas for the arena EV, may or may not prove useful, but neither Data appears worthwhile investing time and resources in.
Congrats on your behold! You really should have 9 of them in your 72nd pull after all those goldless pulls
I’d personally take EC Data for gauntlet even that I already have Okona and La Forge, the more the better