Take any pack that you like, and look at the odds:
Odds for a Purple: 5.06%
Odds for a Legendary: 1.27%
How is guaranteeing these odds as minimums make immortalizing a Legendary any harder?
It would be the same difficulty that it's always been....if the above odds are normalized across the STT Universe. And locally.
You can change the odds to any minimum you like. Just make sure that a player receives a Legendary at the minimum odds every time.
Otherwise, your reasoning is tantamount to the "hitting your head with a hammer" argument: It feels so good when I stop. IE: I like getting burned on Packs because it makes getting a Legendary...and immortalizing a Character....just that much sweeter.
At the regret of sounding blunt -
I should advise you stop spending as many in this conversation have already done. The spending mechanics of this game are closer to that of a slot machine at a large casino as opposed to a simple mobile game. Putting your money at that magnitude in must be done with care and the knowledge *up front* that there will be no return on it.
Yes; you did spend a very large sum of monies over many years in this game, however its best now that you stop. And to the others who say that 'whales' are being mistreated, you aren't hearing from the real whales in this context, as those whales are the ones who are spending 10x what our friend here did and they get the same results, they however just spend more to 'fix' it instead of coming to have an open discussion. THat is something that cannot be fixed and will continue to drive the larger issues at hand.
The thing is....people like this game.
They like Star Trek.
They like the characters, the flow of the game, and even the challenges within the game.
They don't mind spending money for something of value to them.
Especially in small amounts: $5 here, $10 there.
What ruins things for players is when their reasonable expectations of fairness are obliterated MULTIPLE times.
So, they do what most do....they curtail their spending to only those options that retain some fairness, some value.
Campaigns....can be a super value. Drunk Troi isnt much of a card, but hey.....DB cant serve up a mega card every chance.
If you change the game to have a minimum level of fairness, people will spend, Ray.
They will come to Iowa, and spend their hard-earned cash for that 1 in 95 Legendary.
They will dip their toes into the cool waters with Grilka, and experience their childhood all over again.
What they won't do is spend for the 1 in 250 Grilka when you tell them its 1 in 100. Not for long
So then the real point of this thread becomes: What changes must DB make so that players who used to buy packs start buying them again? Or to make players buy more packs?
It all boils down to the same thing: Eliminate unfair outcomes for players, and/or give players more.
Here's a suggestion that I've been thinking about. Make the premium pull provide the user with a guaranteed usable outcome. When pull is initialized, DB inventories all my FF/FE 4* and 5* characters and removes them from the possible results. It then randomly chooses one of the remaining characters in the pool. This way, I am at least guaranteed a 4* or 5* that I can truly use, either for fusing up an existing character, or for a brand new character not in my crew.
I would pay for this "guaranteed premium pull" feature, because at least I know the money won't be wasted away on just schematics or honor.
So then the real point of this thread becomes: What changes must DB make so that players who used to buy packs start buying them again? Or to make players buy more packs?
It all boils down to the same thing: Eliminate unfair outcomes for players, and/or give players more.
Here's a suggestion that I've been thinking about. Make the premium pull provide the user with a guaranteed usable outcome. When pull is initialized, DB inventories all my FF/FE 4* and 5* characters and removes them from the possible results. It then randomly chooses one of the remaining characters in the pool. This way, I am at least guaranteed a 4* or 5* that I can truly use, either for fusing up an existing character, or for a brand new character not in my crew.
I would pay for this "guaranteed premium pull" feature, because at least I know the money won't be wasted away on just schematics or honor.
But what about the 3*? Or for the people who have finished the 4*? What cost would you have them set for this guaranteed premium pull? Because I'm thinking it would have to be pretty darn high to offset the lost revenue.
1) When you have x% of something happening per discrete action, then that x% is the average over an infinite number of those actions. A big enough sample set will hint at any issues.
2) DB's pRNG isn't great.
3) Don't believe 1)? Go Martingaling at a casino over a few nights and let us know the results. Hell, if you have a casino that tracks the roulette wheel save your money and go watch the %ages.
4) I agree with the 'pity roll' and have mentioned it myself before, incrementally tipping the odds in the players favour slightly everytime a 5* doesn't drop is just good relations with the customer base and common sense to avoid these situations.
So then the real point of this thread becomes: What changes must DB make so that players who used to buy packs start buying them again? Or to make players buy more packs?
It all boils down to the same thing: Eliminate unfair outcomes for players, and/or give players more.
Here's a suggestion that I've been thinking about. Make the premium pull provide the user with a guaranteed usable outcome. When pull is initialized, DB inventories all my FF/FE 4* and 5* characters and removes them from the possible results. It then randomly chooses one of the remaining characters in the pool. This way, I am at least guaranteed a 4* or 5* that I can truly use, either for fusing up an existing character, or for a brand new character not in my crew.
I would pay for this "guaranteed premium pull" feature, because at least I know the money won't be wasted away on just schematics or honor.
But what about the 3*? Or for the people who have finished the 4*? What cost would you have them set for this guaranteed premium pull? Because I'm thinking it would have to be pretty darn high to offset the lost revenue.
I would leave the 3* determination alone. Cost for the guaranteed pull is either the same as it is now (650 dilithium in honor hall or 10 for $10) or double the cost (1300 dilithium or 10 for $20).
My thought is that as the game matures, less and less people are investing real dollars to play the game. That is certainly the case with my experience: I've played since 2016, and have almost everything FF/FEd. It makes no sense for me to buy a premium pull now, because it mostly ends up being all schematics and honor. DB needs a way to keep us spending, so that we can keep the game afloat.
Could I chime in, in case DB are reading. The answer isn't to flood the game with more useless 4* & 5* cards bearing the images of people that had five minutes screen time. 👍
Question about the "pity roll"...
The odds of getting a legendary (not necessarily the Tuesday legendary) are assumed to be 10% on a 10x pull. Let's say that the pity roll kicks in at 20 pulls - 2x more than odds would suggest. Would you agree to a mechanic that prevents you from pulling a legendary twice in a row? Anecdotally, I've heard that three times in a row has happened. That isn't the greatest outcome for the company in terms of selling more packs. Would that be an equitable compromise?
So then the real point of this thread becomes: What changes must DB make so that players who used to buy packs start buying them again? Or to make players buy more packs?
It all boils down to the same thing: Eliminate unfair outcomes for players, and/or give players more.
Here's a suggestion that I've been thinking about. Make the premium pull provide the user with a guaranteed usable outcome. When pull is initialized, DB inventories all my FF/FE 4* and 5* characters and removes them from the possible results. It then randomly chooses one of the remaining characters in the pool. This way, I am at least guaranteed a 4* or 5* that I can truly use, either for fusing up an existing character, or for a brand new character not in my crew.
I would pay for this "guaranteed premium pull" feature, because at least I know the money won't be wasted away on just schematics or honor.
But what about the 3*? Or for the people who have finished the 4*? What cost would you have them set for this guaranteed premium pull? Because I'm thinking it would have to be pretty darn high to offset the lost revenue.
Lost revenue?
What about all the lost revenue from people who have just stopped pulling packs?
That is real lost revenue, every day, every week.
DB has an infinite supply of characters.
There will always be demand for new characters.
DB can trot out any character they feel like, any time (yes yes, they need approvals, etc)
DB's marketing strategy is to trot out just enough characters....and give out Legendaries...just enough...to keep a player buying.
Obviously, people do stop buying when their actual results fall below their expectations.
And the ironic thing....were DB to actually institute a guaranteed minimum on pulls....1.27% for 5*.....they could do it and not even announce it.
Players would know because they would experience it.
And you would see the rants about the unfair RNG disappear.
Pack sales would increase, too
This game is the main source of my. entertainment. I spend what I feel is good value. I buy the premium campaign for my main account and a monthly card about every 6 weeks. My alt gets a monthly card paid for with google rewards. I don't buy the premium campaign there. So, I spend about £10 per month but the entertainment value i get for that is worthwhile for me. If i don't get a behold in 20 packs I don't sweat it! I still have fun.
I did used to spend more. Id buy the monthly card, 10x10 packs and sometimes a legend offer. After Polywater Yar I pulled my spending back a lot and yet i still enjoy the gane just as much
So then the real point of this thread becomes: What changes must DB make so that players who used to buy packs start buying them again? Or to make players buy more packs?
It all boils down to the same thing: Eliminate unfair outcomes for players, and/or give players more.
Here's a suggestion that I've been thinking about. Make the premium pull provide the user with a guaranteed usable outcome. When pull is initialized, DB inventories all my FF/FE 4* and 5* characters and removes them from the possible results. It then randomly chooses one of the remaining characters in the pool. This way, I am at least guaranteed a 4* or 5* that I can truly use, either for fusing up an existing character, or for a brand new character not in my crew.
I would pay for this "guaranteed premium pull" feature, because at least I know the money won't be wasted away on just schematics or honor.
But what about the 3*? Or for the people who have finished the 4*? What cost would you have them set for this guaranteed premium pull? Because I'm thinking it would have to be pretty darn high to offset the lost revenue.
Lost revenue?
What about all the lost revenue from people who have just stopped pulling packs?
That is real lost revenue, every day, every week.
DB has an infinite supply of characters.
There will always be demand for new characters.
DB can trot out any character they feel like, any time (yes yes, they need approvals, etc)
DB's marketing strategy is to trot out just enough characters....and give out Legendaries...just enough...to keep a player buying.
Obviously, people do stop buying when their actual results fall below their expectations.
And the ironic thing....were DB to actually institute a guaranteed minimum on pulls....1.27% for 5*.....they could do it and not even announce it.
Players would know because they would experience it.
And you would see the rants about the unfair RNG disappear.
Pack sales would increase, too
You really haven’t haven’t thought of what would happen to pack prices if DB put in those guarantees. Mr. robownage thought it would double but if DB wants to not lose money compared to people chasing packs, I think it would at least triple and maybe quadruple. Congrats, your idea has now priced anyone except for whales out of the market for buying more than one or two event packs in a month! That 10x pack offered at 350k VP in every event? That’s probably now at 500k instead. Way to go, you’ve now also made it harder for all but the people already gunning for first place to rank in events! Those 15/3k/3k offers for $25? Those are now $100, if they were kept around at all. I suggest some further reading on the Law of Unintended Consequences.
So then the real point of this thread becomes: What changes must DB make so that players who used to buy packs start buying them again? Or to make players buy more packs?
It all boils down to the same thing: Eliminate unfair outcomes for players, and/or give players more.
Here's a suggestion that I've been thinking about. Make the premium pull provide the user with a guaranteed usable outcome. When pull is initialized, DB inventories all my FF/FE 4* and 5* characters and removes them from the possible results. It then randomly chooses one of the remaining characters in the pool. This way, I am at least guaranteed a 4* or 5* that I can truly use, either for fusing up an existing character, or for a brand new character not in my crew.
I would pay for this "guaranteed premium pull" feature, because at least I know the money won't be wasted away on just schematics or honor.
But what about the 3*? Or for the people who have finished the 4*? What cost would you have them set for this guaranteed premium pull? Because I'm thinking it would have to be pretty darn high to offset the lost revenue.
Lost revenue?
What about all the lost revenue from people who have just stopped pulling packs?
That is real lost revenue, every day, every week.
DB has an infinite supply of characters.
There will always be demand for new characters.
DB can trot out any character they feel like, any time (yes yes, they need approvals, etc)
DB's marketing strategy is to trot out just enough characters....and give out Legendaries...just enough...to keep a player buying.
Obviously, people do stop buying when their actual results fall below their expectations.
And the ironic thing....were DB to actually institute a guaranteed minimum on pulls....1.27% for 5*.....they could do it and not even announce it.
Players would know because they would experience it.
And you would see the rants about the unfair RNG disappear.
Pack sales would increase, too
You really haven’t haven’t thought of what would happen to pack prices if DB put in those guarantees. Mr. robownage thought it would double but if DB wants to not lose money compared to people chasing packs, I think it would at least triple and maybe quadruple. Congrats, your idea has now priced anyone except for whales out of the market for buying more than one or two event packs in a month! That 10x pack offered at 350k VP in every event? That’s probably now at 500k instead. Way to go, you’ve now also made it harder for all but the people already gunning for first place to rank in events! Those 15/3k/3k offers for $25? Those are now $100, if they were kept around at all. I suggest some further reading on the Law of Unintended Consequences.
I could not agree with this any less.
Pack prices are going to quadruple if I get a Legendary every 1.27% of the time?
Every player should ALREADY be getting a Legendary 1.27% of the time!
You've got to be kidding.
Pack prices wouldnt move a dime.
"Law of Unintended Consequences"... too funny.
All that revenue from unpurchased packs must be rolling in the doors right now.
So then the real point of this thread becomes: What changes must DB make so that players who used to buy packs start buying them again? Or to make players buy more packs?
It all boils down to the same thing: Eliminate unfair outcomes for players, and/or give players more.
Here's a suggestion that I've been thinking about. Make the premium pull provide the user with a guaranteed usable outcome. When pull is initialized, DB inventories all my FF/FE 4* and 5* characters and removes them from the possible results. It then randomly chooses one of the remaining characters in the pool. This way, I am at least guaranteed a 4* or 5* that I can truly use, either for fusing up an existing character, or for a brand new character not in my crew.
I would pay for this "guaranteed premium pull" feature, because at least I know the money won't be wasted away on just schematics or honor.
But what about the 3*? Or for the people who have finished the 4*? What cost would you have them set for this guaranteed premium pull? Because I'm thinking it would have to be pretty darn high to offset the lost revenue.
Lost revenue?
What about all the lost revenue from people who have just stopped pulling packs?
That is real lost revenue, every day, every week.
DB has an infinite supply of characters.
There will always be demand for new characters.
DB can trot out any character they feel like, any time (yes yes, they need approvals, etc)
DB's marketing strategy is to trot out just enough characters....and give out Legendaries...just enough...to keep a player buying.
Obviously, people do stop buying when their actual results fall below their expectations.
And the ironic thing....were DB to actually institute a guaranteed minimum on pulls....1.27% for 5*.....they could do it and not even announce it.
Players would know because they would experience it.
And you would see the rants about the unfair RNG disappear.
Pack sales would increase, too
You really haven’t haven’t thought of what would happen to pack prices if DB put in those guarantees. Mr. robownage thought it would double but if DB wants to not lose money compared to people chasing packs, I think it would at least triple and maybe quadruple. Congrats, your idea has now priced anyone except for whales out of the market for buying more than one or two event packs in a month! That 10x pack offered at 350k VP in every event? That’s probably now at 500k instead. Way to go, you’ve now also made it harder for all but the people already gunning for first place to rank in events! Those 15/3k/3k offers for $25? Those are now $100, if they were kept around at all. I suggest some further reading on the Law of Unintended Consequences.
I could not agree with this any less.
Pack prices are going to quadruple if I get a Legendary every 1.27% of the time?
Every player should ALREADY be getting a Legendary 1.27% of the time!
You've got to be kidding.
Pack prices wouldnt move a dime.
"Law of Unintended Consequences"... too funny.
All that revenue from unpurchased packs must be rolling in the doors right now.
No, your idea was to guarantee a legendary on each ten-pull. If you don’t think that would cause the prices for packs to increase, I really don’t know what to say.
So then the real point of this thread becomes: What changes must DB make so that players who used to buy packs start buying them again? Or to make players buy more packs?
It all boils down to the same thing: Eliminate unfair outcomes for players, and/or give players more.
Here's a suggestion that I've been thinking about. Make the premium pull provide the user with a guaranteed usable outcome. When pull is initialized, DB inventories all my FF/FE 4* and 5* characters and removes them from the possible results. It then randomly chooses one of the remaining characters in the pool. This way, I am at least guaranteed a 4* or 5* that I can truly use, either for fusing up an existing character, or for a brand new character not in my crew.
I would pay for this "guaranteed premium pull" feature, because at least I know the money won't be wasted away on just schematics or honor.
But what about the 3*? Or for the people who have finished the 4*? What cost would you have them set for this guaranteed premium pull? Because I'm thinking it would have to be pretty darn high to offset the lost revenue.
Lost revenue?
What about all the lost revenue from people who have just stopped pulling packs?
That is real lost revenue, every day, every week.
DB has an infinite supply of characters.
There will always be demand for new characters.
DB can trot out any character they feel like, any time (yes yes, they need approvals, etc)
DB's marketing strategy is to trot out just enough characters....and give out Legendaries...just enough...to keep a player buying.
Obviously, people do stop buying when their actual results fall below their expectations.
And the ironic thing....were DB to actually institute a guaranteed minimum on pulls....1.27% for 5*.....they could do it and not even announce it.
Players would know because they would experience it.
And you would see the rants about the unfair RNG disappear.
Pack sales would increase, too
You really haven’t haven’t thought of what would happen to pack prices if DB put in those guarantees. Mr. robownage thought it would double but if DB wants to not lose money compared to people chasing packs, I think it would at least triple and maybe quadruple. Congrats, your idea has now priced anyone except for whales out of the market for buying more than one or two event packs in a month! That 10x pack offered at 350k VP in every event? That’s probably now at 500k instead. Way to go, you’ve now also made it harder for all but the people already gunning for first place to rank in events! Those 15/3k/3k offers for $25? Those are now $100, if they were kept around at all. I suggest some further reading on the Law of Unintended Consequences.
I could not agree with this any less.
Pack prices are going to quadruple if I get a Legendary every 1.27% of the time?
Every player should ALREADY be getting a Legendary 1.27% of the time!
You've got to be kidding.
Pack prices wouldnt move a dime.
"Law of Unintended Consequences"... too funny.
All that revenue from unpurchased packs must be rolling in the doors right now.
No, your idea was to guarantee a legendary on each ten-pull. If you don’t think that would cause the prices for packs to increase, I really don’t know what to say.
My idea was to guarantee a Legendary every 1.27% of the time. A ten pack of 10 pulls.
Where are the people now who say....Don't worry, it all evens out in the RNG universe....
I’m right here, the guy who saved up 228 premium ten-pulls and got nearly dead-on the expected number of golds. 26 received from 2,280 drops, whereas 29 would be expected from the posted drop rate.
You got slightly below what you expected. (And even that says it all)
Show me the guy on the other side of the bell curve.....the guy who got 58 golds from 228 pulls.
Here's a hint: he doesnt exist.
I don't exist?
I rarely have the willpower to save my packs, but I had accrued enough dilithium from the monthly card to get 21 390-dil packs after the April Mega, and got eight Legendaries from them. That ratio would be 88 Legendaries from 231 10-pulls, so I guess I beat your "the guy who got 58 golds from 228 pulls" by quite a margin!
Here are my screenshots of those packs. Sorry, the second pack is missing - it was just another super-rare Lorca. Still, not bad overall for ~$11. (Actually about ~20% cheaper than that - I buy Steam gift cards when there are discounts!)
To get directly back to the topic, I'm surprised no-one's mentioned this already, but one of the most important rules of gambling is that you never gamble more than you're prepared to lose. If you were never taught that in your youth, learning it over a couple hundred bucks in a Star Trek phone game is probably one of the cheaper ways to learn that lesson as an adult.
Whining and complaining and blaming everyone else for gambling and losing... I don't think that works as well, personally. But that's just my opinion.
So then the real point of this thread becomes: What changes must DB make so that players who used to buy packs start buying them again? Or to make players buy more packs?
It all boils down to the same thing: Eliminate unfair outcomes for players, and/or give players more.
Here's a suggestion that I've been thinking about. Make the premium pull provide the user with a guaranteed usable outcome. When pull is initialized, DB inventories all my FF/FE 4* and 5* characters and removes them from the possible results. It then randomly chooses one of the remaining characters in the pool. This way, I am at least guaranteed a 4* or 5* that I can truly use, either for fusing up an existing character, or for a brand new character not in my crew.
I would pay for this "guaranteed premium pull" feature, because at least I know the money won't be wasted away on just schematics or honor.
But what about the 3*? Or for the people who have finished the 4*? What cost would you have them set for this guaranteed premium pull? Because I'm thinking it would have to be pretty darn high to offset the lost revenue.
Lost revenue?
What about all the lost revenue from people who have just stopped pulling packs?
That is real lost revenue, every day, every week.
DB has an infinite supply of characters.
There will always be demand for new characters.
DB can trot out any character they feel like, any time (yes yes, they need approvals, etc)
DB's marketing strategy is to trot out just enough characters....and give out Legendaries...just enough...to keep a player buying.
Obviously, people do stop buying when their actual results fall below their expectations.
And the ironic thing....were DB to actually institute a guaranteed minimum on pulls....1.27% for 5*.....they could do it and not even announce it.
Players would know because they would experience it.
And you would see the rants about the unfair RNG disappear.
Pack sales would increase, too
You really haven’t haven’t thought of what would happen to pack prices if DB put in those guarantees. Mr. robownage thought it would double but if DB wants to not lose money compared to people chasing packs, I think it would at least triple and maybe quadruple. Congrats, your idea has now priced anyone except for whales out of the market for buying more than one or two event packs in a month! That 10x pack offered at 350k VP in every event? That’s probably now at 500k instead. Way to go, you’ve now also made it harder for all but the people already gunning for first place to rank in events! Those 15/3k/3k offers for $25? Those are now $100, if they were kept around at all. I suggest some further reading on the Law of Unintended Consequences.
I could not agree with this any less.
Pack prices are going to quadruple if I get a Legendary every 1.27% of the time?
Every player should ALREADY be getting a Legendary 1.27% of the time!
You've got to be kidding.
Pack prices wouldnt move a dime.
"Law of Unintended Consequences"... too funny.
All that revenue from unpurchased packs must be rolling in the doors right now.
No, your idea was to guarantee a legendary on each ten-pull. If you don’t think that would cause the prices for packs to increase, I really don’t know what to say.
My idea was to guarantee a Legendary every 1.27% of the time. A ten pack of 10 pulls.
It’s still early, I must have misread it...sorry! I don’t necessarily disagree with a pity counter, though I don’t know at what point that should trigger. Every tenth 10x premium pack? 20th? How would that be affected by single premium pulls, merit pulls, and surprise drops from basic pulls? Would doing so cause DB to put another thumb on the other scale and ensure that only one legendary would drop from a 10x pull?
Question about the "pity roll"...
The odds of getting a legendary (not necessarily the Tuesday legendary) are assumed to be 10% on a 10x pull. Let's say that the pity roll kicks in at 20 pulls - 2x more than odds would suggest. Would you agree to a mechanic that prevents you from pulling a legendary twice in a row? Anecdotally, I've heard that three times in a row has happened. That isn't the greatest outcome for the company in terms of selling more packs. Would that be an equitable compromise?
I wouldn't want to see one to kick in after x number of rolls, just add a player-scoped modifier that increases with every 10x pull until a 5* is acquired and then resets back to zero.
For me, the intention is to remove the outliers that don't benefit the players (you can argue they don't benefit DB either in terms of player saltiness) and leave the ones that do as they're a nice, and very rare, surprise which makes players feel good about the game.
I personally can't recall going more than 15 10x pulls without getting a 5*, but for those who hit a run of serious bad luck it's in everyones benefit for that run to get negated - for the player, who has spent money, for DB who may lose a player or that players willingness to spend, and for the general community who will lose one thing to be ranted about on the forum.
I have saved and puled 10 or more 10x packs with no 5* several times. I have , in the past, punched several 10x packs on the special tuesday or other packs offered. I have been disappointed on special packs so many times i stopped doing them. With the exception of chasing cheesecake seven.
In my saved premium portal pks punching over 10 x 10 packs in a row, over 100 cards, and got nothing of value. The second time this happened i sent a ticket and DB C/S said each card dropped has a 1.27% chance of being a 5*. It doesnt matter how many packs or card you pull. Its an individual “per card “chance of 1.27%. Most reasonable ppl equate this to a minimum of one, 5* drop in 100 cards. As i tried to point this out i was told there is no guarantee just a chance. Clearly i was very perturbed and fed up. I pointed out this C/S response in a few threads and got back arguments of (probability vs chance and RNG). Imo it is false advertising as any average normal human equates 1.27% to an actual math percentage which is defined as percentage being a portion of 100. So a min of one 5* should drop on 100 cards.
1. Absolutely the droprate should be increased and the droprate should be guaranteed. 5* cards are not as limited as they used to be, therefore not as valuable. The pool is so diluted with 5*’s now.
2. I refer you to a great idea “decrepit legendaries” ( not my idea) invite everyone to search topic.
3. And balancing honor hall cost vs dismissal amount of honor so that ppl feel better about purchasing 5* cite with honor may go a long way in alleviating the 1/5,2/5 problem.
Three great ideas to implement easily and stop the frustration.
I 100% agree, in a guaranteed 100 being the whole part of the portion, that if DB doesnt change its ways the game will fail from fed up ppl. So many ppl have gone to only mo di and campaign cards now due to this issue.
That would be disappointing since for so many trek fans this has become a daily get-away from real life for relaxation.
The pity counter... don't we already have that, indirectly? If you open 50 ten-packs and don't get a Legendary, don't you still have enough Honor from those packs to grab a Begold from the Honor Hall, if that's what you want?
So then the real point of this thread becomes: What changes must DB make so that players who used to buy packs start buying them again? Or to make players buy more packs?
It all boils down to the same thing: Eliminate unfair outcomes for players, and/or give players more.
Here's a suggestion that I've been thinking about. Make the premium pull provide the user with a guaranteed usable outcome. When pull is initialized, DB inventories all my FF/FE 4* and 5* characters and removes them from the possible results. It then randomly chooses one of the remaining characters in the pool. This way, I am at least guaranteed a 4* or 5* that I can truly use, either for fusing up an existing character, or for a brand new character not in my crew.
I would pay for this "guaranteed premium pull" feature, because at least I know the money won't be wasted away on just schematics or honor.
But what about the 3*? Or for the people who have finished the 4*? What cost would you have them set for this guaranteed premium pull? Because I'm thinking it would have to be pretty darn high to offset the lost revenue.
Lost revenue?
What about all the lost revenue from people who have just stopped pulling packs?
That is real lost revenue, every day, every week.
DB has an infinite supply of characters.
There will always be demand for new characters.
DB can trot out any character they feel like, any time (yes yes, they need approvals, etc)
DB's marketing strategy is to trot out just enough characters....and give out Legendaries...just enough...to keep a player buying.
Obviously, people do stop buying when their actual results fall below their expectations.
And the ironic thing....were DB to actually institute a guaranteed minimum on pulls....1.27% for 5*.....they could do it and not even announce it.
Players would know because they would experience it.
And you would see the rants about the unfair RNG disappear.
Pack sales would increase, too
You really haven’t haven’t thought of what would happen to pack prices if DB put in those guarantees. Mr. robownage thought it would double but if DB wants to not lose money compared to people chasing packs, I think it would at least triple and maybe quadruple. Congrats, your idea has now priced anyone except for whales out of the market for buying more than one or two event packs in a month! That 10x pack offered at 350k VP in every event? That’s probably now at 500k instead. Way to go, you’ve now also made it harder for all but the people already gunning for first place to rank in events! Those 15/3k/3k offers for $25? Those are now $100, if they were kept around at all. I suggest some further reading on the Law of Unintended Consequences.
I could not agree with this any less.
Pack prices are going to quadruple if I get a Legendary every 1.27% of the time?
Every player should ALREADY be getting a Legendary 1.27% of the time!
You've got to be kidding.
Pack prices wouldnt move a dime.
"Law of Unintended Consequences"... too funny.
All that revenue from unpurchased packs must be rolling in the doors right now.
No, your idea was to guarantee a legendary on each ten-pull. If you don’t think that would cause the prices for packs to increase, I really don’t know what to say.
My idea was to guarantee a Legendary every 1.27% of the time. A ten pack of 10 pulls.
It’s still early, I must have misread it...sorry! I don’t necessarily disagree with a pity counter, though I don’t know at what point that should trigger. Every tenth 10x premium pack? 20th? How would that be affected by single premium pulls, merit pulls, and surprise drops from basic pulls? Would doing so cause DB to put another thumb on the other scale and ensure that only one legendary would drop from a 10x pull?
My initial comment was in response to a different user's idea of guaranteeing a useful card on every pull - not the same concept as a pity pull at all, so I don't think you misread.
That said, I would think the idea of a pity pull is significantly more palatable to DB than a guaranteed usable card if we're talking about revenue. I would certainly be onboard if DB went that direction. Perhaps a 10 for 10 offer which guarantees that at least one pack will have a legendary, or 2 guaranteed in the $25 pack etc. I suspect that would attract those who have cut down on spending due to diminishing returns.
Where are the people now who say....Don't worry, it all evens out in the RNG universe....
I’m right here, the guy who saved up 228 premium ten-pulls and got nearly dead-on the expected number of golds. 26 received from 2,280 drops, whereas 29 would be expected from the posted drop rate.
You got slightly below what you expected. (And even that says it all)
Show me the guy on the other side of the bell curve.....the guy who got 58 golds from 228 pulls.
Here's a hint: he doesnt exist.
I don't exist?
I rarely have the willpower to save my packs, but I had accrued enough dilithium from the monthly card to get 21 390-dil packs after the April Mega, and got eight Legendaries from them. That ratio would be 88 Legendaries from 231 10-pulls, so I guess I beat your "the guy who got 58 golds from 228 pulls" by quite a margin!
Here are my screenshots of those packs. Sorry, the second pack is missing - it was just another super-rare Lorca. Still, not bad overall for ~$11. (Actually about ~20% cheaper than that - I buy Steam gift cards when there are discounts!)
To get directly back to the topic, I'm surprised no-one's mentioned this already, but one of the most important rules of gambling is that you never gamble more than you're prepared to lose. If you were never taught that in your youth, learning it over a couple hundred bucks in a Star Trek phone game is probably one of the cheaper ways to learn that lesson as an adult.
Whining and complaining and blaming everyone else for gambling and losing... I don't think that works as well, personally. But that's just my opinion.
So basically what you’re saying is that STT is a gamble app. Well, it have to be clearly stated as such then. And banned at least in the US (as it has servers in the US), Belgium and China (is it even available now in China? I just don’t know)
If DB is going to code for guaranteed legendaries every 10 pulls, oh wait THEY ALREADY DID THAT, for 6500 Dil (10) you can get a guaranteed legendary. Save up your dil and enjoy. I fear that if they tried to implement a guaranteed legendary after x- number of 10x pulls, to keep the average chance the same, they would also have to implement a guaranteed not-to-exceed drop rate. For example, remove the chance for multiple drops in 1 pull or drops in back-to-back pulls, effectively cutting off both ends of the statistical bell curve.
If DB is going to code for guaranteed legendaries every 10 pulls, oh wait THEY ALREADY DID THAT, for 6500 Dil (10) you can get a guaranteed legendary. Save up your dil and enjoy. I fear that if they tried to implement a guaranteed legendary after x- number of 10x pulls, to keep the average chance the same, they would also have to implement a guaranteed not-to-exceed drop rate. For example, remove the chance for multiple drops in 1 pull or drops in back-to-back pulls, effectively cutting off both ends of the statistical bell curve.
Or just raise legendary drop rates a little to 1/7 instead of 1/10 and make the 6500 guaranteed legendary pack cost 4550 (650x7) dilithium instead. Or if that is too much, 1/8, 1/9. Even a slight increase would be great for players and encourage more spending. People in my fleet have complained that legendary drop rates are so low that some of them have given up even trying to buy packs and have stopped purchasing dilithium in any of its forms. That cannot be what DB wants.
Or just raise legendary drop rates a little to 1/7 instead of 1/10 and make the 6500 guaranteed legendary pack cost 4550 (650x7) dilithium instead. Or if that is too much, 1/8, 1/9. Even a slight increase would be great for players and encourage more spending. People in my fleet have complained that legendary drop rates are so low that some of them have given up even trying to buy packs and have stopped purchasing dilithium in any of its forms. That cannot be what DB wants.
The chance to have at least one legendary in a portal 10-pack currently is 12% already.
But I agree that 6500 dil for a guarantee pack is way to much given that it comes with zero honor if you are lucky and have use for all the purples - and without schematics. 500 chrons cannot remedy this.
/edit: Oh just realized that you are talking about featured crew. Never mind!
Wir, die Mirror Tribbles [MiT] haben freie Plätze zu vergeben. Kein Zwang und kein Stress, dafür aber Spaß, Discord und eine nette, hilfsbereite Gemeinschaft, incl. voll ausgebauter Starbase und täglich 700 ISM.
In my saved premium portal pks punching over 10 x 10 packs in a row, over 100 cards, and got nothing of value. The second time this happened i sent a ticket and DB C/S said each card dropped has a 1.27% chance of being a 5*. It doesnt matter how many packs or card you pull. Its an individual “per card “chance of 1.27%.
Patently not true, packs are formulaic, 1st, 8th, 9th & 10th cards drop your SRs or Legendaries. Cards 2-7 appear to have zero chance of either. Unless I've missed a couple of differing packs where they might.
First card is a purple, you expect blues or schems from the other 9.
Nothing from the first 7 and you're hoping the 8th is a behold as 9th and 10th tend to be too.
We have no way of knowing for sure, but I suspect that the server performs the 10 pulls and sorts them prior to displaying the results so that 2-x never have a behold.
We have no way of knowing for sure, but I suspect that the server performs the 10 pulls and sorts them prior to displaying the results so that 2-x never have a behold.
We actually have way of knowing. Remember iampicard and its code? Results of a pull, be it 1x or 10x, are received at once before displaying starts
Comments
Odds for a Purple: 5.06%
Odds for a Legendary: 1.27%
How is guaranteeing these odds as minimums make immortalizing a Legendary any harder?
It would be the same difficulty that it's always been....if the above odds are normalized across the STT Universe. And locally.
You can change the odds to any minimum you like. Just make sure that a player receives a Legendary at the minimum odds every time.
Otherwise, your reasoning is tantamount to the "hitting your head with a hammer" argument: It feels so good when I stop. IE: I like getting burned on Packs because it makes getting a Legendary...and immortalizing a Character....just that much sweeter.
I should advise you stop spending as many in this conversation have already done. The spending mechanics of this game are closer to that of a slot machine at a large casino as opposed to a simple mobile game. Putting your money at that magnitude in must be done with care and the knowledge *up front* that there will be no return on it.
Yes; you did spend a very large sum of monies over many years in this game, however its best now that you stop. And to the others who say that 'whales' are being mistreated, you aren't hearing from the real whales in this context, as those whales are the ones who are spending 10x what our friend here did and they get the same results, they however just spend more to 'fix' it instead of coming to have an open discussion. THat is something that cannot be fixed and will continue to drive the larger issues at hand.
They like Star Trek.
They like the characters, the flow of the game, and even the challenges within the game.
They don't mind spending money for something of value to them.
Especially in small amounts: $5 here, $10 there.
What ruins things for players is when their reasonable expectations of fairness are obliterated MULTIPLE times.
So, they do what most do....they curtail their spending to only those options that retain some fairness, some value.
Campaigns....can be a super value. Drunk Troi isnt much of a card, but hey.....DB cant serve up a mega card every chance.
If you change the game to have a minimum level of fairness, people will spend, Ray.
They will come to Iowa, and spend their hard-earned cash for that 1 in 95 Legendary.
They will dip their toes into the cool waters with Grilka, and experience their childhood all over again.
What they won't do is spend for the 1 in 250 Grilka when you tell them its 1 in 100. Not for long
Here's a suggestion that I've been thinking about. Make the premium pull provide the user with a guaranteed usable outcome. When pull is initialized, DB inventories all my FF/FE 4* and 5* characters and removes them from the possible results. It then randomly chooses one of the remaining characters in the pool. This way, I am at least guaranteed a 4* or 5* that I can truly use, either for fusing up an existing character, or for a brand new character not in my crew.
I would pay for this "guaranteed premium pull" feature, because at least I know the money won't be wasted away on just schematics or honor.
But what about the 3*? Or for the people who have finished the 4*? What cost would you have them set for this guaranteed premium pull? Because I'm thinking it would have to be pretty darn high to offset the lost revenue.
1) When you have x% of something happening per discrete action, then that x% is the average over an infinite number of those actions. A big enough sample set will hint at any issues.
2) DB's pRNG isn't great.
3) Don't believe 1)? Go Martingaling at a casino over a few nights and let us know the results. Hell, if you have a casino that tracks the roulette wheel save your money and go watch the %ages.
4) I agree with the 'pity roll' and have mentioned it myself before, incrementally tipping the odds in the players favour slightly everytime a 5* doesn't drop is just good relations with the customer base and common sense to avoid these situations.
I would leave the 3* determination alone. Cost for the guaranteed pull is either the same as it is now (650 dilithium in honor hall or 10 for $10) or double the cost (1300 dilithium or 10 for $20).
My thought is that as the game matures, less and less people are investing real dollars to play the game. That is certainly the case with my experience: I've played since 2016, and have almost everything FF/FEd. It makes no sense for me to buy a premium pull now, because it mostly ends up being all schematics and honor. DB needs a way to keep us spending, so that we can keep the game afloat.
The odds of getting a legendary (not necessarily the Tuesday legendary) are assumed to be 10% on a 10x pull. Let's say that the pity roll kicks in at 20 pulls - 2x more than odds would suggest. Would you agree to a mechanic that prevents you from pulling a legendary twice in a row? Anecdotally, I've heard that three times in a row has happened. That isn't the greatest outcome for the company in terms of selling more packs. Would that be an equitable compromise?
Lost revenue?
What about all the lost revenue from people who have just stopped pulling packs?
That is real lost revenue, every day, every week.
DB has an infinite supply of characters.
There will always be demand for new characters.
DB can trot out any character they feel like, any time (yes yes, they need approvals, etc)
DB's marketing strategy is to trot out just enough characters....and give out Legendaries...just enough...to keep a player buying.
Obviously, people do stop buying when their actual results fall below their expectations.
And the ironic thing....were DB to actually institute a guaranteed minimum on pulls....1.27% for 5*.....they could do it and not even announce it.
Players would know because they would experience it.
And you would see the rants about the unfair RNG disappear.
Pack sales would increase, too
I did used to spend more. Id buy the monthly card, 10x10 packs and sometimes a legend offer. After Polywater Yar I pulled my spending back a lot and yet i still enjoy the gane just as much
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You really haven’t haven’t thought of what would happen to pack prices if DB put in those guarantees. Mr. robownage thought it would double but if DB wants to not lose money compared to people chasing packs, I think it would at least triple and maybe quadruple. Congrats, your idea has now priced anyone except for whales out of the market for buying more than one or two event packs in a month! That 10x pack offered at 350k VP in every event? That’s probably now at 500k instead. Way to go, you’ve now also made it harder for all but the people already gunning for first place to rank in events! Those 15/3k/3k offers for $25? Those are now $100, if they were kept around at all. I suggest some further reading on the Law of Unintended Consequences.
I could not agree with this any less.
Pack prices are going to quadruple if I get a Legendary every 1.27% of the time?
Every player should ALREADY be getting a Legendary 1.27% of the time!
You've got to be kidding.
Pack prices wouldnt move a dime.
"Law of Unintended Consequences"... too funny.
All that revenue from unpurchased packs must be rolling in the doors right now.
No, your idea was to guarantee a legendary on each ten-pull. If you don’t think that would cause the prices for packs to increase, I really don’t know what to say.
My idea was to guarantee a Legendary every 1.27% of the time. A ten pack of 10 pulls.
I rarely have the willpower to save my packs, but I had accrued enough dilithium from the monthly card to get 21 390-dil packs after the April Mega, and got eight Legendaries from them. That ratio would be 88 Legendaries from 231 10-pulls, so I guess I beat your "the guy who got 58 golds from 228 pulls" by quite a margin!
Here are my screenshots of those packs. Sorry, the second pack is missing - it was just another super-rare Lorca.
To get directly back to the topic, I'm surprised no-one's mentioned this already, but one of the most important rules of gambling is that you never gamble more than you're prepared to lose. If you were never taught that in your youth, learning it over a couple hundred bucks in a Star Trek phone game is probably one of the cheaper ways to learn that lesson as an adult.
Whining and complaining and blaming everyone else for gambling and losing... I don't think that works as well, personally. But that's just my opinion.
It’s still early, I must have misread it...sorry! I don’t necessarily disagree with a pity counter, though I don’t know at what point that should trigger. Every tenth 10x premium pack? 20th? How would that be affected by single premium pulls, merit pulls, and surprise drops from basic pulls? Would doing so cause DB to put another thumb on the other scale and ensure that only one legendary would drop from a 10x pull?
I wouldn't want to see one to kick in after x number of rolls, just add a player-scoped modifier that increases with every 10x pull until a 5* is acquired and then resets back to zero.
For me, the intention is to remove the outliers that don't benefit the players (you can argue they don't benefit DB either in terms of player saltiness) and leave the ones that do as they're a nice, and very rare, surprise which makes players feel good about the game.
I personally can't recall going more than 15 10x pulls without getting a 5*, but for those who hit a run of serious bad luck it's in everyones benefit for that run to get negated - for the player, who has spent money, for DB who may lose a player or that players willingness to spend, and for the general community who will lose one thing to be ranted about on the forum.
In my saved premium portal pks punching over 10 x 10 packs in a row, over 100 cards, and got nothing of value. The second time this happened i sent a ticket and DB C/S said each card dropped has a 1.27% chance of being a 5*. It doesnt matter how many packs or card you pull. Its an individual “per card “chance of 1.27%. Most reasonable ppl equate this to a minimum of one, 5* drop in 100 cards. As i tried to point this out i was told there is no guarantee just a chance. Clearly i was very perturbed and fed up. I pointed out this C/S response in a few threads and got back arguments of (probability vs chance and RNG). Imo it is false advertising as any average normal human equates 1.27% to an actual math percentage which is defined as percentage being a portion of 100. So a min of one 5* should drop on 100 cards.
1. Absolutely the droprate should be increased and the droprate should be guaranteed. 5* cards are not as limited as they used to be, therefore not as valuable. The pool is so diluted with 5*’s now.
2. I refer you to a great idea “decrepit legendaries” ( not my idea) invite everyone to search topic.
3. And balancing honor hall cost vs dismissal amount of honor so that ppl feel better about purchasing 5* cite with honor may go a long way in alleviating the 1/5,2/5 problem.
Three great ideas to implement easily and stop the frustration.
I 100% agree, in a guaranteed 100 being the whole part of the portion, that if DB doesnt change its ways the game will fail from fed up ppl. So many ppl have gone to only mo di and campaign cards now due to this issue.
That would be disappointing since for so many trek fans this has become a daily get-away from real life for relaxation.
PM for details.
So long and thanks for all the fish.
My initial comment was in response to a different user's idea of guaranteeing a useful card on every pull - not the same concept as a pity pull at all, so I don't think you misread.
That said, I would think the idea of a pity pull is significantly more palatable to DB than a guaranteed usable card if we're talking about revenue. I would certainly be onboard if DB went that direction. Perhaps a 10 for 10 offer which guarantees that at least one pack will have a legendary, or 2 guaranteed in the $25 pack etc. I suspect that would attract those who have cut down on spending due to diminishing returns.
So basically what you’re saying is that STT is a gamble app. Well, it have to be clearly stated as such then. And banned at least in the US (as it has servers in the US), Belgium and China (is it even available now in China? I just don’t know)
Or just raise legendary drop rates a little to 1/7 instead of 1/10 and make the 6500 guaranteed legendary pack cost 4550 (650x7) dilithium instead. Or if that is too much, 1/8, 1/9. Even a slight increase would be great for players and encourage more spending. People in my fleet have complained that legendary drop rates are so low that some of them have given up even trying to buy packs and have stopped purchasing dilithium in any of its forms. That cannot be what DB wants.
But I agree that 6500 dil for a guarantee pack is way to much given that it comes with zero honor if you are lucky and have use for all the purples - and without schematics. 500 chrons cannot remedy this.
/edit: Oh just realized that you are talking about featured crew. Never mind!
Patently not true, packs are formulaic, 1st, 8th, 9th & 10th cards drop your SRs or Legendaries. Cards 2-7 appear to have zero chance of either. Unless I've missed a couple of differing packs where they might.
First card is a purple, you expect blues or schems from the other 9.
Nothing from the first 7 and you're hoping the 8th is a behold as 9th and 10th tend to be too.
We actually have way of knowing. Remember iampicard and its code? Results of a pull, be it 1x or 10x, are received at once before displaying starts