Those also appear to be the odds for any given slot, versus the odds for, say, a 10-pack as a whole. Especially since the 10x packs, which are what most people will purchase, guarantee one super-rare (specific to the event in the case of event packs).
I would presume in the case of a 10 pack you would get a 5/6 chance of getting a purple and a 1/6 getting a gold. It's still quite misleading because we all have witnessed that more than 1 legendary or purple can drop in a 10 pack before at some point.
I’m wondering about when you buy a theme or event pack, where you’re guaranteed one of the selected crew, what are the odds you get one of the gold vs purple in the selected crew. I’d like to know that when considering on theme/event packs
“With the first link, the chain is forged. The first speech censured, the first thought forbidden, the first freedom denied, chains us all irrevocably.” Captain Picard quoting Judge Aaron Satie.
You can thank Apple for the transparency. They had to do it if they wanted to remain on the app store. But it does confirm that the Legendary drop rate is 10% (based on the 6500 pack) for the nine non-guaranteed Legendary slots.
Talking with the fleet, I just noticed, the chances of a behold aren't displayed.
Also, how do we explain this behavior?
"All the packs I've opened if I get a 4* first that is the only one I get. If I get a 3* or schematics first I always get a behold at the end and usually at least two 4* or 5*"
Talking with the fleet, I just noticed, the chances of a behold aren't displayed.
Also, how do we explain this behavior?
"All the packs I've opened if I get a 4* first that is the only one I get. If I get a 3* or schematics first I always get a behold at the end and usually at least two 4* or 5*"
Check the announcement. This is being rolled out over a few days, depending on the platform being used. I wont see it on my Android until Monday.
Talking with the fleet, I just noticed, the chances of a behold aren't displayed.
Also, how do we explain this behavior?
"All the packs I've opened if I get a 4* first that is the only one I get. If I get a 3* or schematics first I always get a behold at the end and usually at least two 4* or 5*"
Check the announcement. This is being rolled out over a few days, depending on the platform being used. I wont see it on my Android until Monday.
I'm talking about behavior and stats that are independent of rollout date. Our friends on Steam and FB have gotten us the percentages that we'll all see the same pictures on our smart devices within a few days.
Talking with the fleet, I just noticed, the chances of a behold aren't displayed.
Also, how do we explain this behavior?
"All the packs I've opened if I get a 4* first that is the only one I get. If I get a 3* or schematics first I always get a behold at the end and usually at least two 4* or 5*"
My assumption of the algorithm based on what I've seen:
1) Perform 9 random pulls.
2) If there is a 4* or 5* that is selected, it is a behold.
3) After the 9 pulls, look at the results, if there has been a 4*, do a 10th random pull. If there was no 4*, then pick a random 4*.
If it was a guaranteed pack the algorithm for that 10th pick is likely a little different to handle the chance of the 5*.
But outside of guaranteed packs, I've never gotten a 5* non-behold and any 10x that had 2+ 4* always had at least one behold.
Also, they say 4* or better(and 2* or better in credit 10x), but I've never gotten only better. There is a 4*/2* in every pack. So even if you get lucky with a 5*/3+*, you will still get the guaranteed 4*(non-behold)/2*.
My assumption of the algorithm based on what I've seen:
1) Perform 9 random pulls.
2) If there is a 4* or 5* that is selected, it is a behold.
3) After the 9 pulls, look at the results, if there has been a 4*, do a 10th random pull. If there was no 4*, then pick a random 4*.
If the first slot is a 4*, it will be a straight drop. If it isn't, there will be one or more beholds, as the last drops.
Also, they say 4* or better(and 2* or better in credit 10x), but I've never gotten only better. There is a 4*/2* in every pack. So even if you get lucky with a 5*/3+*, you will still get the guaranteed 4*(non-behold)/2*.
I don't have evidence, but I think I've had only a 5* from a 10 pull.
So if we open 10 10x premium packs and managed to net 0 legendary, i guess we are losers!
No it means you're amongst the 28% who don't get a 5* from a 10x10.
where do you get 28%? And 72% get legendary? Grrrr
Mathematics. Roughly speaking you have a 98.73% chance of getting no 5* from a pull. 100 pulls means 0.9873^100 = ~28%. Its a little fuzzier than that because the math behind a premium pack isn't explained well.
On the plus side there's a decent chance of pulling two 5*'s from 10 premium pulls.
My assumption of the algorithm based on what I've seen:
1) Perform 9 random pulls.
2) If there is a 4* or 5* that is selected, it is a behold.
3) After the 9 pulls, look at the results, if there has been a 4*, do a 10th random pull. If there was no 4*, then pick a random 4*.
If the first slot is a 4*, it will be a straight drop. If it isn't, there will be one or more beholds, as the last drops.
Also, they say 4* or better(and 2* or better in credit 10x), but I've never gotten only better. There is a 4*/2* in every pack. So even if you get lucky with a 5*/3+*, you will still get the guaranteed 4*(non-behold)/2*.
I don't have evidence, but I think I've had only a 5* from a 10 pull.
I don't care how they display it, I care how it's calculated. I've gotten only a single 4* behold. Since they can't know what the next 9 pulls will be, they can't change the behavior of the first pull. They have to do the first 9 random pulls first and then do logic for the guarantee at the end. They may then display the pulls in reverse(starting with the guarantee) or have some predefined order for how they display it to increase "excitement", but the actual server calculations have to start with the 9 random pulls first,
I've also gotten a 5* from a premium single and a credit 10x. As the published odds show, a 5* is possible anywhere, it's just a question of the odds.
I've also gotten a 5* from a premium single and a credit 10x. As the published odds show, a 5* is possible anywhere, it's just a question of the odds.
The last part was in response to your claim that a premium 10x always gives a 4*, even if it gives a 5* as well. I think that's false, but my memory can't be trusted.
As to the rest, it sounds reasonable - you may well be correct. We know that individual gauntlet rolls are presented after the final result is known. Pulls could very well be the same.
My assumption of the algorithm based on what I've seen:
1) Perform 9 random pulls.
2) If there is a 4* or 5* that is selected, it is a behold.
3) After the 9 pulls, look at the results, if there has been a 4*, do a 10th random pull. If there was no 4*, then pick a random 4*.
If the first slot is a 4*, it will be a straight drop. If it isn't, there will be one or more beholds, as the last drops.
Also, they say 4* or better(and 2* or better in credit 10x), but I've never gotten only better. There is a 4*/2* in every pack. So even if you get lucky with a 5*/3+*, you will still get the guaranteed 4*(non-behold)/2*.
I don't have evidence, but I think I've had only a 5* from a 10 pull.
I don't care how they display it, I care how it's calculated. I've gotten only a single 4* behold. Since they can't know what the next 9 pulls will be, they can't change the behavior of the first pull. They have to do the first 9 random pulls first and then do logic for the guarantee at the end. They may then display the pulls in reverse(starting with the guarantee) or have some predefined order for how they display it to increase "excitement", but the actual server calculations have to start with the 9 random pulls first,
I've also gotten a 5* from a premium single and a credit 10x. As the published odds show, a 5* is possible anywhere, it's just a question of the odds.
Yes, and I’ve beat them. It says you have a .02% chance of a legendary out of a single credit pull. I’ve gotten Orion Vina from one. I’ve also landed the legendary and a 4* from a 5000 Dabo spin so I guess I’m way ahead of the odds
For those interested in the odds on the merit pull and basic pull as well.
I'm finding myself a bit surprised by those odds, seeing as I've pulled (as I recall) 4 Legendary crew from Merit pulls, and a half-dozen Legendaries from basic 10-pulls (including one from a single basic pull). And yet, I have never gotten a Legendary from Dabo in over 15 months of daily playing (and doing perhaps 100 extra spins in that time). Granted, I've surely done more basic pulls than Dabo spins (counting a 10-pull as 10 single units), but have done probably less than 60 Merit pulls total. I'm no statistician, to say the least, so perhaps that all still falls within normal odds — it just strikes me as curious.
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing. ~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
I've also gotten a 5* from a premium single and a credit 10x. As the published odds show, a 5* is possible anywhere, it's just a question of the odds.
The last part was in response to your claim that a premium 10x always gives a 4*, even if it gives a 5* as well. I think that's false, but my memory can't be trusted.
Ah, that's possible. I've never seen it, but my data on premium 10x with a 5* is small enough that I can't make any definitive statements other than it hasn't happened to me.
Another point, if I got more than one 4*, they are all beholds. I only ever saw a non-behold 4* if it was the only 4* in a premium 10x(excluding guaranteed packs).
Again, I don't have enough occurrences to be positive about that, but it does make me think that any randomly selected 4* is a behold and a non-behold 4* only occurs if the pack contains no 4*.
I've also gotten a 5* from a premium single and a credit 10x. As the published odds show, a 5* is possible anywhere, it's just a question of the odds.
The last part was in response to your claim that a premium 10x always gives a 4*, even if it gives a 5* as well. I think that's false, but my memory can't be trusted.
Ah, that's possible. I've never seen it, but my data on premium 10x with a 5* is small enough that I can't make any definitive statements other than it hasn't happened to me.
Dug into my screenshots going back to December 2017, and found the following five instances of premium 10-pulls yielding 5* crew but no 4* crew. (I don't believe any of these were from special packs.)
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing. ~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
So just for fun, here´s the math on how big your Chance is to get a legendary in a 10 Card pack:
You have a Chance of 1.27% to draw one, meaning a 98.73% Chance NOT to draw one.
Drawing None in 2 packs is 98.73^2 = 97,47
Drawing None in 10 packs is 98.73^10 = 88.00%
So per 10 pack, you have a Chance of 88% NOT to draw at least one legendary.
Same can be done for the 10x10 pack, the chances not to draw one is 88.00^10 = 27.85%
So just for fun, here´s the math on how big your Chance is to get a legendary in a 10 Card pack:
You have a Chance of 1.27% to draw one, meaning a 98.73% Chance NOT to draw one.
Drawing None in 2 packs is 98.73^2 = 97,47
Drawing None in 10 packs is 98.73^10 = 88.00%
So per 10 pack, you have a Chance of 88% NOT to draw at least one legendary.
Same can be done for the 10x10 pack, the chances not to draw one is 88.00^10 = 27.85%
That is still a very high percentage.
I think you're misreading this. The 1.27% is for each slot, not for full Pack. So for a10x10 you have about a 72% chance of a legendary, not 12%.
So just for fun, here´s the math on how big your Chance is to get a legendary in a 10 Card pack:
You have a Chance of 1.27% to draw one, meaning a 98.73% Chance NOT to draw one.
Drawing None in 2 packs is 98.73^2 = 97,47
Drawing None in 10 packs is 98.73^10 = 88.00%
So per 10 pack, you have a Chance of 88% NOT to draw at least one legendary.
Same can be done for the 10x10 pack, the chances not to draw one is 88.00^10 = 27.85%
That is still a very high percentage.
I think you're misreading this. The 1.27% is for each slot, not for full Pack. So for a10x10 you have about a 72% chance of a legendary, not 12%.
These two situations (1.27% chance per slot in 10 slots pack and 1.27% chance for the entire pack) are the same. And yes, the chance for getting at least one legendary from 10 10x packs is 72.14% which is what he calculated. You just misread his calculations.
1) What are the rates for the "guaranteed" 4*+ drop?
2) With this now being disclosed, did DB alter the drop rates in any way, or have they always been these percentages/
1. Wouldn't that be 100%? It's guaranteed. All the drop rates apply to the non-guaranteed slots in the 10 pull on a per slot basis.
2. Good question.
Well, the gave us the odds for the other slots, but not for the 4*/guarantee slot. It may be confusing to some people to see the simultaneously different rates, but they are valid, and I'd like to see them, even if they're generally posted and they're 45/45/10 as we expect.
We'd also like to know if event packs have a higher chance of drawing "high bonus" and "low bonus" event crew in packs, and if otherwise non-available higher/lower crew are available. If these are greater than 0 values, it would only lead to more pack purchases.
Comments
I’m wondering about when you buy a theme or event pack, where you’re guaranteed one of the selected crew, what are the odds you get one of the gold vs purple in the selected crew. I’d like to know that when considering on theme/event packs
You can thank Apple for the transparency. They had to do it if they wanted to remain on the app store. But it does confirm that the Legendary drop rate is 10% (based on the 6500 pack) for the nine non-guaranteed Legendary slots.
Also, how do we explain this behavior?
"All the packs I've opened if I get a 4* first that is the only one I get. If I get a 3* or schematics first I always get a behold at the end and usually at least two 4* or 5*"
Check the announcement. This is being rolled out over a few days, depending on the platform being used. I wont see it on my Android until Monday.
I'm talking about behavior and stats that are independent of rollout date. Our friends on Steam and FB have gotten us the percentages that we'll all see the same pictures on our smart devices within a few days.
Not sure I wanna deal with more ugly.
I really want to know how DB manage to compute 1% drop rate. Otherwise it is just ~inappropriate language snipped number
No it means you're amongst the 28% who don't get a 5* from a 10x10.
where do you get 28%? And 72% get legendary? Grrrr
If the drop rate is for each pull in the 10x premium pack, It is 1.x% prob for each of 100 pulls, no?
Darn it!! we need 4.0.3 announcement to clarify this
My assumption of the algorithm based on what I've seen:
1) Perform 9 random pulls.
2) If there is a 4* or 5* that is selected, it is a behold.
3) After the 9 pulls, look at the results, if there has been a 4*, do a 10th random pull. If there was no 4*, then pick a random 4*.
If it was a guaranteed pack the algorithm for that 10th pick is likely a little different to handle the chance of the 5*.
But outside of guaranteed packs, I've never gotten a 5* non-behold and any 10x that had 2+ 4* always had at least one behold.
Also, they say 4* or better(and 2* or better in credit 10x), but I've never gotten only better. There is a 4*/2* in every pack. So even if you get lucky with a 5*/3+*, you will still get the guaranteed 4*(non-behold)/2*.
If the first slot is a 4*, it will be a straight drop. If it isn't, there will be one or more beholds, as the last drops.
I don't have evidence, but I think I've had only a 5* from a 10 pull.
Mathematics. Roughly speaking you have a 98.73% chance of getting no 5* from a pull. 100 pulls means 0.9873^100 = ~28%. Its a little fuzzier than that because the math behind a premium pack isn't explained well.
On the plus side there's a decent chance of pulling two 5*'s from 10 premium pulls.
I don't care how they display it, I care how it's calculated. I've gotten only a single 4* behold. Since they can't know what the next 9 pulls will be, they can't change the behavior of the first pull. They have to do the first 9 random pulls first and then do logic for the guarantee at the end. They may then display the pulls in reverse(starting with the guarantee) or have some predefined order for how they display it to increase "excitement", but the actual server calculations have to start with the 9 random pulls first,
I've also gotten a 5* from a premium single and a credit 10x. As the published odds show, a 5* is possible anywhere, it's just a question of the odds.
The last part was in response to your claim that a premium 10x always gives a 4*, even if it gives a 5* as well. I think that's false, but my memory can't be trusted.
As to the rest, it sounds reasonable - you may well be correct. We know that individual gauntlet rolls are presented after the final result is known. Pulls could very well be the same.
Yes, and I’ve beat them. It says you have a .02% chance of a legendary out of a single credit pull. I’ve gotten Orion Vina from one. I’ve also landed the legendary and a 4* from a 5000 Dabo spin so I guess I’m way ahead of the odds
I'm finding myself a bit surprised by those odds, seeing as I've pulled (as I recall) 4 Legendary crew from Merit pulls, and a half-dozen Legendaries from basic 10-pulls (including one from a single basic pull). And yet, I have never gotten a Legendary from Dabo in over 15 months of daily playing (and doing perhaps 100 extra spins in that time). Granted, I've surely done more basic pulls than Dabo spins (counting a 10-pull as 10 single units), but have done probably less than 60 Merit pulls total. I'm no statistician, to say the least, so perhaps that all still falls within normal odds — it just strikes me as curious.
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing.
~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
Ah, that's possible. I've never seen it, but my data on premium 10x with a 5* is small enough that I can't make any definitive statements other than it hasn't happened to me.
Another point, if I got more than one 4*, they are all beholds. I only ever saw a non-behold 4* if it was the only 4* in a premium 10x(excluding guaranteed packs).
Again, I don't have enough occurrences to be positive about that, but it does make me think that any randomly selected 4* is a behold and a non-behold 4* only occurs if the pack contains no 4*.
Dug into my screenshots going back to December 2017, and found the following five instances of premium 10-pulls yielding 5* crew but no 4* crew. (I don't believe any of these were from special packs.)
Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing.
~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
You have a Chance of 1.27% to draw one, meaning a 98.73% Chance NOT to draw one.
Drawing None in 2 packs is 98.73^2 = 97,47
Drawing None in 10 packs is 98.73^10 = 88.00%
So per 10 pack, you have a Chance of 88% NOT to draw at least one legendary.
Same can be done for the 10x10 pack, the chances not to draw one is 88.00^10 = 27.85%
That is still a very high percentage.
I think you're misreading this. The 1.27% is for each slot, not for full Pack. So for a10x10 you have about a 72% chance of a legendary, not 12%.
That is quite interesting, and certainly bares up well with my metrics of roughly 1 in 4, 10 for $10 packs dropping no legionaries.
That said, on one occasion I pulled 3 begolds from a 10-for $10 so I figured it evens itself out (the more packs you buy obviously).
Jim
These two situations (1.27% chance per slot in 10 slots pack and 1.27% chance for the entire pack) are the same. And yes, the chance for getting at least one legendary from 10 10x packs is 72.14% which is what he calculated. You just misread his calculations.
You have a ~22% chance of pulling 2x 5*'s and a ~9% chance of pulling 3x 5*'s.
1) What are the rates for the "guaranteed" 4*+ drop?
2) With this now being disclosed, did DB alter the drop rates in any way, or have they always been these percentages/
1. Wouldn't that be 100%? It's guaranteed. All the drop rates apply to the non-guaranteed slots in the 10 pull on a per slot basis.
2. Good question.
The data they posted seems close enough to what I've tracked that I would assume they didn't change anything and just published the true odds.
Well, the gave us the odds for the other slots, but not for the 4*/guarantee slot. It may be confusing to some people to see the simultaneously different rates, but they are valid, and I'd like to see them, even if they're generally posted and they're 45/45/10 as we expect.
We'd also like to know if event packs have a higher chance of drawing "high bonus" and "low bonus" event crew in packs, and if otherwise non-available higher/lower crew are available. If these are greater than 0 values, it would only lead to more pack purchases.
1. Random 4*
2. 4* Behold
3. Random 5*
4. 5* Behold
1+2+3+4=100%, but specifics are unknown.