We are not dealing with a random number generator but a Pseudorandom number generator.
But the biggest concern to me is how the numbers are given to us from this generator.
Say I run 80 missions. I think I have received 80 different numbers. We do not know this. It could be one (unlikely) and It could be any number in between.
The point is there are problems in giving us a random number as well as its actual generation.
DB could actually say there had been no change and it is true.
We are not dealing with a random number generator but a Pseudorandom number generator.
But the biggest concern to me is how the numbers are given to us from this generator.
Say I run 80 missions. I think I have received 80 different numbers. We do not know this. It could be one (unlikely) and It could be any number in between.
The point is there are problems in giving us a random number as well as its actual generation.
DB could actually say there had been no change and it is true.
I've long suspected, that the way poor results clumped together, 1/4 on 95% missions and such, I though there could be an issue with how the RNG is seeded. Large sample sizes would show more accurate results, while still explaining the clumping. I think it was Nod who even said theoretically it could be the case but he didn't know.
Yeah, as I said in another post, If they are already making changes to the shuttles, and doing ver/val testing, they would address significant bugs/defects. That is why I am so called that we are getting no response.
They arguably can't respond. If they admit fault, even if just in saying it is corrected, players would have a case for compensation. They can stand behind the "affected all players equally" line, but for folks who time boosted a displayed high percent due to that high percent, or dilithium completed it, they were affected more. And folks who learned of the problem and avoided the shuttles were impacted less, so the line would not hold true as a defense.
They are kinda backed into a corner. The right thing to do would be to admit it, and send out some large compensation to everyone, and then use the "all players equally" stance after doing SOMETHING as reimbursement for the issue. At the same time they are likely looking to reduce this type of liability, so since there is an easy no compensation defense, I'm not surprised they don't deviate from it.
This is why I think they are essentially ignoring the issue and hoping it goes away. People have spent hundreds of dollars or more under the assumption the game behaves a certain way. I could see a more than a few Apple or Google reps giving you your money back if DB admitted it had been broken for over a year.
I could also see Apple pulling the game from the store if they found out that the game was broken for a year and a half and the company is now denying that it was broken despite the company fixing it.
I once again used my own calculations to pick crew, assuming the error was still in play.
- 124 missions run
- 91.0% average expected success rate based on in-game posted rates
- 95.0% actual success rate!
For the first time, my actual success rate surpassed my expected success rate, with 116/124 shuttles succeeding.
This doesn't help determine whether or not the 'AND' issue is resolved, but it once again confirms that selecting crew based on the forum formula [skill 1 + (skill 2 x 0.25)] will lead to results that are aligned to expected success rates.
I started with the new Forum way, but one day in switched to the game's suggestions. I didn't keep track specifically, but it seemed to me that I only lost about 1 in 10.
It's so sad when customers must go to such extremes to prove how the product is behaving.
[DCC] bebe
Privileged to be Admiral of the Great Fleet
Dilithium Causes Cancer, maxed Starbase level 134
Featuring photonic flee free holodecks and
All you can drink Neelix's Even Better Than Coffee Substitute!
They have insisted for two years that it works correctly. I would be pleasantly shocked if they admitted otherwise and did anything about it.
FWIW, it hasn't been broken two years. The "AND" slot change happened around August 2017. I saw the post linked recently here, but couldn't find it just now. I've linked the wiki update below that reflected that change: https://stt.wiki/w/index.php?title=Faction_Missions&oldid=138909
There was no indication it was broken prior to this.
They have insisted for two years that it works correctly. I would be pleasantly shocked if they admitted otherwise and did anything about it.
FWIW, it hasn't been broken two years. The "AND" slot change happened around August 2017. I saw the post linked recently here, but couldn't find it just now. I've linked the wiki update below that reflected that change: https://stt.wiki/w/index.php?title=Faction_Missions&oldid=138909
There was no indication it was broken prior to this.
Here’s a link to @Shan ‘s post from 18 May 2017 regarding the AND slots change:
They have insisted for two years that it works correctly. I would be pleasantly shocked if they admitted otherwise and did anything about it.
FWIW, it hasn't been broken two years. The "AND" slot change happened around August 2017. I saw the post linked recently here, but couldn't find it just now. I've linked the wiki update below that reflected that change: https://stt.wiki/w/index.php?title=Faction_Missions&oldid=138909
There was no indication it was broken prior to this.
Here’s a link to @Shan ‘s post from 18 May 2017 regarding the AND slots change:
That's when we really started to notice the fails. Before that, shuttles averages in the 60s for a lot of us; after that, we started to hit the 80s and 90s. Expected fails in the 60s but the same amount of fails was still occuring at the higher levels.
It is not scientific by any means, but my shuttles have been constantly running since the last change and I have been assigning crew who are on the top of the list, not paying attention to the AND status. They have been returning with success rates that match the displayed percentages. Before we found out about the AND issue, those same shuttles always returned with lower success rates.
I'm sorry it isn't scientifically sound, but it is what I have. I'm running on the conclusion that the issue is resolved.
I'm still not convinced that AND missions, if fixed in daily shuttles, would mean they're fixed in event shuttles.
We already know they dare not touch the old faction code from Prince's own words.
It's entirely plausible that a new module is called for the math, display, and calculations of shuttles in events versus dailies.
And we know they're not the most adept at programming and maintaining orders of operations.
I won't be satisfied that event AND shuttles work correctly until we've had multiple events specifically testing it, but it would help if DB would deign to admit they at least looked at and tweaked the code.
The short of it is DB is horrible at communication and has done thing after thing to break their trust and I simply don't trust them.
I'm still not convinced that AND missions, if fixed in daily shuttles, would mean they're fixed in event shuttles.
We already know they dare not touch the old faction code from Prince's own words.
It's entirely plausible that a new module is called for the math, display, and calculations of shuttles in events versus dailies.
And we know they're not the most adept at programming and maintaining orders of operations.
I won't be satisfied that event AND shuttles work correctly until we've had multiple events specifically testing it, but it would help if DB would deign to admit they at least looked at and tweaked the code.
The short of it is DB is horrible at communication and has done thing after thing to break their trust and I simply don't trust them.
Here are my thoughts:
Are Regular Faction Shuttles Fixed? I burned out after running 28 single seat AND shuttles. I got 19/28 or 68% compared to my expected results of ~70%. It looks pretty promising here since I should have been seeing about a 24% success rate if the shuttles were still broken. Again, is this definitive? No, but it looks really likely.
Are the Faction event Shuttles Fixed? No way to tell for me in the last event, since the difference between the shuttle percentages calculated either way was less than 10%. You start needing huge sample sizes to tell a difference when the gap is that small. That said, since they apparently fixed the bug in the faction shuttles & they had to touch the event code to change the % displays and rewards, I have a hard time believing they wouldn't fix the bug that was leading to the miscalculation.
All the above is infuriating when they have committed to telling us something once there was an investigation of the bug. There is no way on earth that investigation hasn't happened and clearly changes have been made. I am going to keep bringing this up, an probably will start a thread referencing their commitment to us about this, because as much as we have a hunch things were fixed, we really need a straight answer.
Other than the last faction event after clearing all the thresholds (where I stopped caring what the success rate was), I have been playing AND missions as if the bug wasn’t fixed. I want an announcement from DB saying that they’re fixed...I know it’s a toss-up as to whether or not that will ever happen (due to the potential fallout of admitting shuttles were broken for a long time) but it’s the right thing to do.
Besides, sticking with first vs. second makes crew selection for shuttles more challenging, instead of just picking the available crew closest to the top of the list.
I'm still not convinced that AND missions, if fixed in daily shuttles, would mean they're fixed in event shuttles.
We already know they dare not touch the old faction code from Prince's own words.
It's entirely plausible that a new module is called for the math, display, and calculations of shuttles in events versus dailies.
And we know they're not the most adept at programming and maintaining orders of operations.
I won't be satisfied that event AND shuttles work correctly until we've had multiple events specifically testing it, but it would help if DB would deign to admit they at least looked at and tweaked the code.
The short of it is DB is horrible at communication and has done thing after thing to break their trust and I simply don't trust them.
FWIW, I loaded Bashir in a SEC + MED slot all event two events ago and saw no ill effects.
Comments
We are not dealing with a random number generator but a Pseudorandom number generator.
But the biggest concern to me is how the numbers are given to us from this generator.
Say I run 80 missions. I think I have received 80 different numbers. We do not know this. It could be one (unlikely) and It could be any number in between.
The point is there are problems in giving us a random number as well as its actual generation.
DB could actually say there had been no change and it is true.
I've long suspected, that the way poor results clumped together, 1/4 on 95% missions and such, I though there could be an issue with how the RNG is seeded. Large sample sizes would show more accurate results, while still explaining the clumping. I think it was Nod who even said theoretically it could be the case but he didn't know.
This is why I think they are essentially ignoring the issue and hoping it goes away. People have spent hundreds of dollars or more under the assumption the game behaves a certain way. I could see a more than a few Apple or Google reps giving you your money back if DB admitted it had been broken for over a year.
If so, who's participating and what do we need to do to contribute?
- 124 missions run
- 91.0% average expected success rate based on in-game posted rates
- 95.0% actual success rate!
For the first time, my actual success rate surpassed my expected success rate, with 116/124 shuttles succeeding.
This doesn't help determine whether or not the 'AND' issue is resolved, but it once again confirms that selecting crew based on the forum formula [skill 1 + (skill 2 x 0.25)] will lead to results that are aligned to expected success rates.
Privileged to be Admiral of the Great Fleet
Dilithium Causes Cancer, maxed Starbase level 134
Featuring photonic flee free holodecks and
All you can drink Neelix's Even Better Than Coffee Substitute!
FWIW, it hasn't been broken two years. The "AND" slot change happened around August 2017. I saw the post linked recently here, but couldn't find it just now. I've linked the wiki update below that reflected that change: https://stt.wiki/w/index.php?title=Faction_Missions&oldid=138909
There was no indication it was broken prior to this.
Here’s a link to @Shan ‘s post from 18 May 2017 regarding the AND slots change:
https://forums.disruptorbeam.com/stt/viewthread/63133
🖖🏻
Thank you. I've added a reference link on the Shuttle mission wiki page for that calculation. Will be much easier to refer to that now, for me.
I'm sorry it isn't scientifically sound, but it is what I have. I'm running on the conclusion that the issue is resolved.
It would still be nice if they said something.
We already know they dare not touch the old faction code from Prince's own words.
It's entirely plausible that a new module is called for the math, display, and calculations of shuttles in events versus dailies.
And we know they're not the most adept at programming and maintaining orders of operations.
I won't be satisfied that event AND shuttles work correctly until we've had multiple events specifically testing it, but it would help if DB would deign to admit they at least looked at and tweaked the code.
The short of it is DB is horrible at communication and has done thing after thing to break their trust and I simply don't trust them.
Here are my thoughts:
Are Regular Faction Shuttles Fixed? I burned out after running 28 single seat AND shuttles. I got 19/28 or 68% compared to my expected results of ~70%. It looks pretty promising here since I should have been seeing about a 24% success rate if the shuttles were still broken. Again, is this definitive? No, but it looks really likely.
Are the Faction event Shuttles Fixed? No way to tell for me in the last event, since the difference between the shuttle percentages calculated either way was less than 10%. You start needing huge sample sizes to tell a difference when the gap is that small. That said, since they apparently fixed the bug in the faction shuttles & they had to touch the event code to change the % displays and rewards, I have a hard time believing they wouldn't fix the bug that was leading to the miscalculation.
All the above is infuriating when they have committed to telling us something once there was an investigation of the bug. There is no way on earth that investigation hasn't happened and clearly changes have been made. I am going to keep bringing this up, an probably will start a thread referencing their commitment to us about this, because as much as we have a hunch things were fixed, we really need a straight answer.
Besides, sticking with first vs. second makes crew selection for shuttles more challenging, instead of just picking the available crew closest to the top of the list.
FWIW, I loaded Bashir in a SEC + MED slot all event two events ago and saw no ill effects.