Gauntlet since Red Angel

Roxton

Has anyone else noticed since Red Angel appeared Gauntlet rounds have become skewed.
Many rounds I think I should have won and would have done in the past seem to be destroying me.

Gib - Admiral Mariners

No, I have lost some I thought I should have won, but know I might not.

Zombie Squirrel

Roxton wrote: »

Has anyone else noticed since Red Angel appeared Gauntlet rounds have become skewed.
Many rounds I think I should have won and would have done in the past seem to be destroying me.

Not at all. You lose some which percentage wise you were in favor to win, and u win some where percentage wise you should have lost. It‘s all even, as usual.

DScottHewitt

Par for the course. Had several Gauntlet matches since I've been playing, where the exact Crew would face each other. One with lower Rolls wins quite often. Depends on which end of he range each hit rolls, and Crits......

=GBP= Bear

It's Gauntlet.
You lose!
I've had too many rounds lately that just amazed me... 25% 2-skilled crew with 1500+ points vs a 5% 1-skilled opponent with 700 points? I got slaughtered!
RNGesus must be angry with me.

Ivanstone

I have done the Gauntlet since they added the Red Angel.

I am filled with despair every time I lose because I don't have the Red Angel.

Kind of like when I didn't have Armus or Caretaker or Guinan or Locutus.

Exanimus

I don't know that the game forces a loss any more or less than usual. But what is noticeable is an expected shift because of interest. I actually had 6 walls of Caretaker in a row. Not a complaint, but being competitive now costs considerably more merits that people who haven't had an interest I'm a while likely have to spare. The shift to a more powerful general representation even at the low end is disrupting the ability to maintain a win streak even at lower ranks. It is certainly a more expensive activity, though I wouldnt go so far as to say the mechanics in the background have changed. Again, the shift was expected, just irritating.

DScottHewitt

Ivanstone wrote: »

I have done the Gauntlet since they added the Red Angel.

I am filled with despair every time I lose because I don't have the Red Angel.

Kind of like when I didn't have Armus or Caretaker or Guinan or Locutus.

I hope you start getting them to start dropping, soon. Two nights ago, Red Angel dropped for me from a 29th place or so finish. Just did my five crates for finishing 60s and got Banjo Bob. Only one I did not have.




My Red Angel won her first Battle she fought...

~peregrine~

Exanimus wrote: »

I don't know that the game forces a loss any more or less than usual. But what is noticeable is an expected shift because of interest. I actually had 6 walls of Caretaker in a row. Not a complaint, but being competitive now costs considerably more merits that people who haven't had an interest I'm a while likely have to spare. The shift to a more powerful general representation even at the low end is disrupting the ability to maintain a win streak even at lower ranks. It is certainly a more expensive activity, though I wouldnt go so far as to say the mechanics in the background have changed. Again, the shift was expected, just irritating.

Well said. 🖖

Almost a Angel

What annoys me the most is how the Gauntlet was described to work laid out by DB at the beginning (and I wish I had kept a snapshot of it). Which was one of the drives to join a Fleet and build up the Starbase, plus your Collections. That has been in my opinion a Contractual failure.
Like so many other pains you just get use to it, grab your coffee and "gummies" and take what you get🙂

Bylo Band

I'll admit, it is a struggle at times to accept how Gauntlet works, I am almost always competing very hard and am one of the crazies that actually drops (too much) dilithium in there, and if I was going off of a strict return on investment model of analysis I'd go bonkers given how few times I've actually won the "prize" vs all the reports of people who casually announce they hit the jackpot TWICE in a week from finishes in the 50s or similar stories, but I'm just enough of a contrarian to enjoy the process. Mostly.

Prime Lorca

When there is a new crew to chase, the losses are extra frustrating. When you're trying harder and picking matches more carefully, you're more invested. When you still end up losing, the defeats are even more emotional. I don't think there are game mechanics at work here, but I certainly wouldn't swear to it.

*Nomad* {PoF}

Almost a Angel wrote: »

What annoys me the most is how the Gauntlet was described to work laid out by DB at the beginning (and I wish I had kept a snapshot of it). Which was one of the drives to join a Fleet and build up the Starbase, plus your Collections. That has been in my opinion a Contractual failure.
Like so many other pains you just get use to it, grab your coffee and "gummies" and take what you get🙂

What annoys me is that after 4 years, they still cant fix this........

/SSR/ Tichy

RNG at work

https://dilbert.com/strip/2001-10-25

Ishmael Marx

The only thing I’ve noticed is more people playing the way Bylo plays (no criticism, just using the example). A few days ago, my gauntlet leader had 8100 pts at the 24hr mark. So basically it’s harder to win one for those of us that don’t use Dil, but otherwise it’s business as usual for me.

Bylo Band

Ishmael Marx wrote: »

The only thing I’ve noticed is more people playing the way Bylo plays (no criticism, just using the example). A few days ago, my gauntlet leader had 8100 pts at the 24hr mark. So basically it’s harder to win one for those of us that don’t use Dil, but otherwise it’s business as usual for me.

I think I get away with it for 2 reasons. First, I called my shot in advance so people are mentally prepared...



...and 2, I think people know that I won't win so at the end of the day it isn't such a big deal

Roxton

My wins are about 40% atm I normally run at about 60 - 80%
Maybe it's because there are more people returning to play.
I am not sure why. But I am sure there has been a shift.
I am not complaining about rewards those I put down to RNG it's the match ups that are getting to me.

Drago Musevni

Gauntlet has always been skewed in favor of your opponent, it's nothing new. Nothing the gauntlet likes more than metaphorically flipping you the bird when you have a 2-1 skill advantage and a hefty crit bonus advantage over your opponent. Invariably, your opponent with less of a crit % chance than you will crit 3 times for triple their max roll each time, while the juggernaut you're using rolls six of the lowest rolls possible, snatching defeat from the jaws of sure victory you had. I only do gauntlet match-ups that are heavily skewed in my favor, and I still end up losing 20% of the time. It's the same RNG that can fail 6-out-of-10 96% shuttles. The RNG needs taken out back and shot, and replaced with something that works accurately.

DScottHewitt

This one was closer than the numbers said it should have been.....

ShadowPresence

It's the biggest reason why I quit playing Gauntlet. The rounds just don't make sense. I stopped playing because I felt like I kept saying, "this game cheats". Plus, I've been playing for a year and half and the entire time Armus was the main reward. So it felt stagnant. Honestly, since I haven't been playing gauntlet anymore, my merits have built up. When Red Angel was released I had 120k merits to work with. Now I'm hitting 30+ consecutive wins and still getting irritated with trainers being the top reward for those boxes. Don't get me wrong, I dont want easy Red Angel payouts, the market doesn't need to be flooded with her, but if we could just get the RNG to at least make a modicum of sense that would be great! Oh, and get rid of trainers! Definitely get rid of trainers! I foresee myself losing interest in gauntlet soon if trainers are my reward for the 30, 33, and 36 boxes again!

Princess Trista

Bylo Band wrote: »

I'll admit, it is a struggle at times to accept how Gauntlet works, I am almost always competing very hard and am one of the crazies that actually drops (too much) dilithium in there, and if I was going off of a strict return on investment model of analysis I'd go bonkers given how few times I've actually won the "prize" vs all the reports of people who casually announce they hit the jackpot TWICE in a week from finishes in the 50s or similar stories, but I'm just enough of a contrarian to enjoy the process. Mostly.

I enjoy the Gauntlet but I agree it is very frustrating. How can a 5% crit chance have almost the same chance as a 45% crit crew? The 45% has a 9 times chance of getting a crit EACH time over a 5% crit crew. But not in this game. I think DB added a RNG into the percentages which skews that chance

<TGE> Darxide

Oh, look. It's this thread again.

Cpt_insano_2k1

Gauntlet is definitely geared towards luring people into micro spending their dilithium and merits in pursuit of “the prize”.

I was lucky enough to get a red angel early on, from a 12 win streak crate. So, i wont be dropping crazy amounts of dilithium to try and get another.

For those who do feel compelled to drop dilithium in this pursuit, just a friendly reminder that IF your gauntlet crate contains a legendary crew, there is only a 1/5 chance that it will be the red angel. Just putting it in perspective folks. Manage those expectations.

(HGH)Apollo

Cpt_insano_2k1 wrote: »

Gauntlet is definitely geared towards luring people into micro spending their dilithium and merits in pursuit of “the prize”.

I was lucky enough to get a red angel early on, from a 12 win streak crate. So, i wont be dropping crazy amounts of dilithium to try and get another.

For those who do feel compelled to drop dilithium in this pursuit, just a friendly reminder that IF your gauntlet crate contains a legendary crew, there is only a 1/5 chance that it will be the red angel. Just putting it in perspective folks. Manage those expectations.

The odds for the featured gauntlet crew member is higher than the odds for the other gauntlet legendaries. How much more TP has not said. You are right though that the odds of getting one is low so you have to play a lot of gauntlets to get it.

AviTrek

(HGH)Apollo wrote: »

Cpt_insano_2k1 wrote: »

Gauntlet is definitely geared towards luring people into micro spending their dilithium and merits in pursuit of “the prize”.

I was lucky enough to get a red angel early on, from a 12 win streak crate. So, i wont be dropping crazy amounts of dilithium to try and get another.

For those who do feel compelled to drop dilithium in this pursuit, just a friendly reminder that IF your gauntlet crate contains a legendary crew, there is only a 1/5 chance that it will be the red angel. Just putting it in perspective folks. Manage those expectations.

The odds for the featured gauntlet crew member is higher than the odds for the other gauntlet legendaries. How much more TP has not said. You are right though that the odds of getting one is low so you have to play a lot of gauntlets to get it.

From the way they described it when they made the change, the odds of getting the featured crew is equal to the combined odds for the other crew. So let's say 1% for featured crew and then 1% for other gauntlet crew. If you hit the 1% for featured crew you get red angel. If you get the other, it then does a second spin to decide between which of the other crew you get.

Cpt_insano_2k1

AviTrek wrote: »

(HGH)Apollo wrote: »

Cpt_insano_2k1 wrote: »

Gauntlet is definitely geared towards luring people into micro spending their dilithium and merits in pursuit of “the prize”.

I was lucky enough to get a red angel early on, from a 12 win streak crate. So, i wont be dropping crazy amounts of dilithium to try and get another.

For those who do feel compelled to drop dilithium in this pursuit, just a friendly reminder that IF your gauntlet crate contains a legendary crew, there is only a 1/5 chance that it will be the red angel. Just putting it in perspective folks. Manage those expectations.

The odds for the featured gauntlet crew member is higher than the odds for the other gauntlet legendaries. How much more TP has not said. You are right though that the odds of getting one is low so you have to play a lot of gauntlets to get it.

From the way they described it when they made the change, the odds of getting the featured crew is equal to the combined odds for the other crew. So let's say 1% for featured crew and then 1% for other gauntlet crew. If you hit the 1% for featured crew you get red angel. If you get the other, it then does a second spin to decide between which of the other crew you get.

Interesting. Did not know that, but that explains why i ended up with so many Armus’

Septani Ainalrami

As somebody who both crunches numbers for a living, and has been constantly playing the gauntlet since he began this game, I feel I can say with confidence that the variables at play here have not changed with the Red Angel's arrival. Regular gauntleteers can likely attest to this as well, that the odds are as stacked against the attacker as much as they ever were...no more, no less. For any player who hasn't frequented the gauntlet but is now in pursuit of this new crew, there's going to be a frustrating period of adjustment before finding their footing and establishing realistic baseline expectations. It's all about expectations...understanding the dynamics and not setting yourself up for repeated disappointment.

As others have already mentioned, the gauntlet odds are heavily weighted in favor of the defender. The defender, on average, will score higher values within their skill proficiency ranges as well as more criticals, and they will always win ties. We would intuitively assume that the RNG generates values on a bell curve, and that higher crit %s (due to traits) equate to more criticals actually scored. Neither of these is necessarily the case, so throw common sense out the window! There exist an unknown number of "house" advantages programmed into a defender's scoring, completely undisclosed by the game designers. My best advice is, don't despair...set realistically low expectations, so that your overall strategy won't be derailed when your superior crew inevitably lose to inferior opponents. Stack the odds as high as possible in your favor, even when it doesn't seem necessary. Spend whatever merit you can reasonably spare, to arrange matches more favorable to your crew. And good luck!

AviTrek

I don't know if house advantages have ever been proven. But what I will point out, if you have a 90% chance of winning every matchup, your odds of winning 12 matchups in a row is only 28%. You are just not that likely to get long streak since the longer you go the odds of avoiding that bad beat get smaller and smaller.

Also, most players never even attempt a matchup where they are an underdog. If we take that 90% chance of success again, you remember the case when the 10% happens and you lose. Theoretically there is also a case where you had a 90% chance to lose and you won. But since you never attempted that matchup you never see it happen. So all you experience are the cases where you are favored and lose.

12345678 of 123456789

Septani Ainalrami wrote: »

As others have already mentioned, the gauntlet odds are heavily weighted in favor of the defender. The defender, on average, will score higher values within their skill proficiency ranges as well as more criticals, and they will always win ties.

Most of what you posted is spot on, but when there is a tie there is an additional roll to add 1 point to either the defender or the attacker. It is definitely possible to win ties.

On a tangent, I (had) gone back to pursuing a more rigorous red shirt strategy and the number of times that a skill combo would pop up for a crew I just sacrificed regularly happens 3-5 times in a row. Everyone always focuses on the gauntlet match roll outcomes, but a much heavier thumb is on the scale for match selection options.

[10F] Unnar

AviTrek wrote: »

Also, most players never even attempt a matchup where they are an underdog. If we take that 90% chance of success again, you remember the case when the 10% happens and you lose. Theoretically there is also a case where you had a 90% chance to lose and you won. But since you never attempted that matchup you never see it happen. So all you experience are the cases where you are favored and lose.

I attempt plenty of matchups as an underdog, and win a few shockers. If I don't have a good streak going, I play till all my crew lose. Just to get to the 20k Locutus sooner. Feels like the only way I will ever get him.

Septani Ainalrami

Since I lose more often than I win, I play roughly a dozen matches every day where I'm the underdog. It's simply because, after any hope of further rewards or winning streaks is gone, I still need to tank each crew for the sake of eventually reaching 20K matches. So I do regularly see the shoe on the other foot, as it were. And I can tell you that, all things being equal, defending underdogs win more matches than attacking underdogs do.