Predictions on Polestar Values in the Celestial Market

[GoT] LuckyNumberHat

With the market coming soon, here are some of my predictions regarding values of various categories of polestars:

Very High Value - Unique or very rare traits on powerful or popular crew (e.g Kataan for Kamin Picard, Pandronion for Commander Ari bn Bem)

High Value - Rare traits linked to collections (e.g. Borg, Athlete [Niners Collection], Cardassian) or traits that greatly narrow character pools (traits generally in the 30-60ish range)

Moderate Value - Uncommon traits linked to collections (e.g. Costumed, Inspiring, Survivalist), Rarity traits, Skill traits, and unique traits on less useful crew (e.g. Deltan for either Illia, traits linked to a single 4* crew)

Low Value - Common traits that are still useful, but due to RNG will end up with some having to many and some having none. This is the basic trading functionality of the market, the redistribution of available, but randomly acquired resources.

No Value/Meme Value/Stonks - Federation, Human, Starfleet. (I hear Elon Musk just tweeted that Federation Polestars are the currency of the future!!!1!)

Other than the No Value/Meme Value/Stonks and the Low Value categories, I don't really have much by way of predictions on how these values are actually going to pan out, especially early on. I expect a lot of volatility early on, especially as Whales blow their ISM stashes to nab traits they've been hunting. I then expect the bottom to fall out for a while as the rest of us (non-whale forum folks and casuals) correct the market to what most are actually willing to pay.

Disclosure: I am not a financial ISM advisor. I just like the Polestar.

Zombie Squirrel

My add prediction on the marekt is, that some players will (ab)use the market system to „transfer“ huge amounts of ISM from their alt accounts to their main accounts(i won t tell how, to not advertise it, but i guess most will know how to do it anyway).

Not that it matters much though, since quantum is mostly the limiting factor.

Ishmael Marx

It should be interesting. I personally don't expect to make much use of the market, since I rarely try to target specific cards for retrieval. I just start filtering using a dragonball and whatever polestars I have the most of (excluding the F/H/S trio), and see what options that produces (and then hopefully I can remove the dragonball and still have the same options). I've done as many 1-crew retrievals as I have done 3-7 crew pool retrievals (spin the wheel and get fun prizes!). My only rule has been "no gambling if there's a FF crew in the pool" ('cause we all know what would happen). But this is just me - I'm sure plenty of players will love the market, and that's a good thing.

[GoT] LuckyNumberHat

Zombie Squirrel wrote: »

My add prediction on the marekt is, that some players will use their alt accounts to transfer huge amounts of ISM from their alts to their main accounts, by
loophole the system(i won t tell how, to not advertise it, but i guess most will know how to do it anyway). Not that it matters much though, since quantum is mostly the limiting factor.

I thought about addressing ISM laundering, but frankly, most people aren't likely to do that to the point where I think it only really affects the upper tiers of costs. Like you said, eventually you have either all the Polestars you need or more ISM than you can ever spend and you're just waiting on Quantum.

[GoT] LuckyNumberHat

Ishmael Marx wrote: »

It should be interesting. I personally don't expect to make much use of the market, since I rarely try to target specific cards for retrieval. I just start filtering using a dragonball and whatever polestars I have the most of (excluding the F/H/S trio), and see what options that produces (and then hopefully I can remove the dragonball and still have the same options). I've done as many 1-crew retrievals as I have done 3-7 crew pool retrievals (spin the wheel and get fun prizes!). My only rule has been "no gambling if there's a FF crew in the pool" ('cause we all know what would happen). But this is just me - I'm sure plenty of players will love the market, and that's a good thing.

I'm with you on probably not using the market a ton. When Retrieval came out, I thought I was going to spend a lot more energy fishing for crew I've been wanting for a long time (come to me, Conflicted Sisko!), but the real use has been as another source of 5* Citations. Using DataCore, I've figured out which crew I have multiple combinations of common/uncommon polestars for to get 4th and 5th stars for to send to the freezer. Then I can use 5* Citations on crew that are either new and I want to use before they hit the pool or ones that can't be guaranteed retrieves.

EnderW

Skill polestars will be the most expensive, as access to them is limited mostly to the top event ranking players.

Legendary polestars will also be valuable, as it's what most people are gunning for with CR. The other rarity polestars will have no to little value (though happy to sell my SR polestars to whoever wants them!).

The value of a polestar should be linked roughly to its availability; so the more common the trait -> the more common the polestar -> less value. For example, I just had a funny accomplishment: I now have as many desperate polestars as Starfleet (12; which is 1 more than Federation and an amazing 4 more than Human). Of course, desperate is the fourth or fifth most common trait, so odd but not that surprising.

I'm actually aiming for a very rare polestar, Barzan, which is good for only one card. It'll be interesting to see if my initial bid will be taken...and if anyone has that polestar.

[GoT] LuckyNumberHat

EnderW wrote: »

Skill polestars will be the most expensive, as access to them is limited mostly to the top event ranking players.

Legendary polestars will also be valuable, as it's what most people are gunning for with CR. The other rarity polestars will have no to little value (though happy to sell my SR polestars to whoever wants them!).

The value of a polestar should be linked roughly to its availability; so the more common the trait -> the more common the polestar -> less value. For example, I just had a funny accomplishment: I now have as many desperate polestars as Starfleet (12; which is 1 more than Federation and an amazing 4 more than Human). Of course, desperate is the fourth or fifth most common trait, so odd but not that surprising.

I'm actually aiming for a very rare polestar, Barzan, which is good for only one card. It'll be interesting to see if my initial bid will be taken...and if anyone has that polestar.

Seems like you and I are in agreement, just that I added some stratification within rarity. I don't think there's a world in which Kataan and Ramatis III Native are worth the same. I also think Costumed will be worth more than Desperate despite being slightly less rare due to the Collection. I agree things will mostly follow rarity, but I also think there will be more to it than that.

robownage

I have exactly one polestar that I'm after so that I can get the one version of Stamets I don't have (and probably won't even be in the next portal update). Hopefully I won't have to pay too much for it, but I hope my Pandronian will net enough to offset it.

Emperor Borg Drone (SC)

I have already retrieved everyone on my top 5 wishlist and I'm low on crew slots, so I'm not in a hurry to buy or sell any specific polestars. At least not until there's a portal update, and even then we're talking about one polestar that I want to buy (if it doesn't drop from a constellation in the meantime).

I guess I'll try to purchase that one polestar and a few that would allow me to add stars on crew that I'm not willing to spend cites on. And I'll try to sell a few rare but unspectacular polestars that I happen to have and others of moderate value that I happen to have dupes of.

I'll just wait until someone is willing to buy or sell for the price I'm comfortable with, since it doesn't look like there's an expiry date on the marketplace offers/bids (or is there?).

As for the original question, I guess I'll look at the prices that others chose for their polestars when selling and I'll just stick to whatever feels acceptable to me for purchases.

EnderW

Emperor Borg Drone (AR) wrote: »

I'll just wait until someone is willing to buy or sell for the price I'm comfortable with, since it doesn't look like there's an expiry date on the marketplace offers/bids (or is there?).

Offers have a lifespan of 30 days, if I recall correctly. Though you can cancel your offers at any time.

(HGH)Apollo

Katla

I'm going to short sell like mad with all my human/federation/starfleet cons.
After I crash the game, I'll expect a bailout.

Emperor Borg Drone (SC)

EnderW wrote: »

Emperor Borg Drone (AR) wrote: »

I'll just wait until someone is willing to buy or sell for the price I'm comfortable with, since it doesn't look like there's an expiry date on the marketplace offers/bids (or is there?).

Offers have a lifespan of 30 days, if I recall correctly. Though you can cancel your offers at any time.

I guess we'll get our resources back if no one agrees to the offer, so that shouldn't be an issue. Or at least I hope so

Prime Lorca

I used to play WoW. After the game got boring, I just started playing the auction house. This will be fun for me. I'll probably sell early, then buy when the market cools down.

The tools mentioned in the announcement greatly interest me. Those are something I never saw in WoW. Seeing how many of a polestar are available in the game will be fun. I can see how many other unlucky players got Kai and Edosian polestars.

Gib - Admiral Mariners

Prime Lorca I need kai, but have a few that are one off races

Seven Constanza

I have a Zahl polestar that I’ll put out there for fun that I’m sure no one will want. 😆

Myimaginary

Seven Constanza wrote: »

I have a Zahl polestar that I’ll put out there for fun that I’m sure no one will want. 😆

I have a Jem'hadar polestar which should be just as popular 😅

Trollita

Myimaginary wrote: »

Seven Constanza wrote: »

I have a Zahl polestar that I’ll put out there for fun that I’m sure no one will want. 😆

I have a Jem'hadar polestar which should be just as popular 😅

I have an Obsidian Order polestar. I’ll be set for life after I sell this baby!

[SSR] GTMET

I have not one, but TWO t’kon polestars, take that!

Wildstar19

I'll see your Federation polestar, and raise you 2 Starfleet and 2 Human polestars. What's that? They're worthless? aw man . . .

Veterinary Phlox

I have ten orders planned, ranging from 2500 to 5000. They're generally fairly common, or go to relatively unpopular crew. Those numbers are probably on the low end for Day 1, but I think pricing will come down pretty quickly, and I don't mind waiting.

I'm still working on my listings, but I plan to have similar pricing. Maybe a little higher for "Prophet," since it's a unique polestar to a solid voyager.

This may work poorly for me, and I could easily see my sales snapped up for being prices low, with no interest in my orders. But I don't mind risking half my ISM stash if it helps establish more accessible pricing. And with six legendary revivals already in my queue, I really have no reason to rush.

Edit: I figure if a polestar can be scrapped for 800 ISM, than getting 3x is pretty reasonable for a low end polestar, and 6x is good for moderate ones.

Kanon

I would love to know which ones are the most sought after, I'm sure there are many that I might have and I don't care for... And It would be interesting to have some idea of initial values for some polestars, just to know what to do if I have one I want to list, and was never listed before (should I post a huge price just in case? Where is the place for counter offers? Do we need a price guide?)

Darth Skippy wrote: »

I'll see your Federation polestar, and raise you 2 Starfleet and 2 Human polestars. What's that? They're worthless? aw man . . .

Federation/Human/Starfleet can be very useful, but yeah, due to everyone having tons of them they will have zero value in the market

AviTrek

Kanon wrote: »

I would love to know which ones are the most sought after, I'm sure there are many that I might have and I don't care for... And It would be interesting to have some idea of initial values for some polestars, just to know what to do if I have one I want to list, and was never listed before (should I post a huge price just in case? Where is the place for counter offers? Do we need a price guide?)

Darth Skippy wrote: »

I'll see your Federation polestar, and raise you 2 Starfleet and 2 Human polestars. What's that? They're worthless? aw man . . .

Federation/Human/Starfleet can be very useful, but yeah, due to everyone having tons of them they will have zero value in the market

My guess, rare polestars that will help to uniquely isolate highly desirable crew.

As an example, only 10 constellations will drop Temporal Agent. It can be used to retrieve Captain Braxton with Pilot or Crafty which are both more common. So I would expect Temporal Agent to be a valuable polestar.

Kanon

AviTrek wrote: »

My guess, rare polestars that will help to uniquely isolate highly desirable crew.

As an example, only 10 constellations will drop Temporal Agent. It can be used to retrieve Captain Braxton with Pilot or Crafty which are both more common. So I would expect Temporal Agent to be a valuable polestar.

Aha, but here is the catch: You can also retrieve Braxton with Pilot + Saboteur + Human/Starfleet/Federation, so Temporal Agent is as valuable as Saboteur in this scenario. So, while rare, is as useful as a more common one (and hence, more versatile). Here a more common polestar, which on its own doesn't do much could be as pricey or more than the limited Temporal Agent... ('cause with Human/Starfleet/Federation you can do just the same, or you can use it in other combos)

AviTrek

Kanon wrote: »

AviTrek wrote: »

My guess, rare polestars that will help to uniquely isolate highly desirable crew.

As an example, only 10 constellations will drop Temporal Agent. It can be used to retrieve Captain Braxton with Pilot or Crafty which are both more common. So I would expect Temporal Agent to be a valuable polestar.

Aha, but here is the catch: You can also retrieve Braxton with Pilot + Saboteur + Human/Starfleet/Federation, so Temporal Agent is as valuable as Saboteur in this scenario. So, while rare, is as useful as a more common one (and hence, more versatile). Here a more common polestar, which on its own doesn't do much could be as pricey or more than the limited Temporal Agent... ('cause with Human/Starfleet/Federation you can do just the same, or you can use it in other combos)

Good point. So they should be roughly similar except that Saboteur may have other uses.

There may be a case to be made buying the cheaper one and selling the more expensive one.

I feel like there are going to be a lot of market inefficiencies. I'll be curious to see what community and private tools are created to try and arb the market.

EnderW

I thought my Orion polestar was unique and valuable. But today I got a Presage polestar and I’m kinda thrilled! 😃 Not putting that on the market.

Veterinary Phlox

It's hard to isolate Mobile Doctor, and the best you can do is a 50/50 with Virtuoso Doctor, so I imagine any polestars that let you take a shot at him will be pretty valuable.

Mirror Cartman

EnderW wrote: »

Skill polestars will be the most expensive, as access to them is limited mostly to the top event ranking players.

I cannot see that. Skill polestars could rare, but they reference a lot of crew, e.g. there are currently about 500 Security, and 500 Command crew in the pool.

[SSR] GTMET

Mirror Cartman wrote: »

EnderW wrote: »

Skill polestars will be the most expensive, as access to them is limited mostly to the top event ranking players.

I cannot see that. Skill polestars could rare, but they reference a lot of crew, e.g. there are currently about 500 Security, and 500 Command crew in the pool.

However they are really good at isolating crew variants, (i.e. Datas are almost all "Federation, Android, Starfleet, cyberneticist, Musician, and a bunch more are costumed). Throwing in a Med will get you carlos data. They are REALLY usefull and flexible for isolating specific crew.

Wildstar19

Veterinary Phlox wrote: »

It's hard to isolate Mobile Doctor, and the best you can do is a 50/50 with Virtuoso Doctor, so I imagine any polestars that let you take a shot at him will be pretty valuable.

this

SoupKitchen Riker

Darth Skippy wrote: »

Veterinary Phlox wrote: »

It's hard to isolate Mobile Doctor, and the best you can do is a 50/50 with Virtuoso Doctor, so I imagine any polestars that let you take a shot at him will be pretty valuable.

this

I know this issue well. When I was trying to finish Cheesecake Seven (not using cites, but getting the characters) I took some 50/50 shots at Mobile Doc...but got Virtuoso Doc instead. However, such are the chances of the game. In the end, I did use one citation