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The Post-Waddle Winter Season

NoNameNamerNoNameNamer ✭✭✭✭
edited September 2021 in The Bridge
Am I the only one completely disappointed with crew releases in the past 4-5 months?

Let's begin by looking at 2020 data of new 3-skill legendary crew, in chronological order.
711m5x1co0p6.png

This is a scatter graph of their debut voyage ranks. The blue straight line is a trend line. While trend was slightly going up (meaning we were getting progressively worse crew), we were also constantly getting top 100 voyagers. The running total of new top 100 voyagers are represented by the red triangles -- see the right vertical axis.

Note: In the first 7 months of 2020, only 3 crew were introduced with a voyage rank above 100. After that, we were still getting them at a steady pace as you can clearly draw a straight line through all triangles. With a single exception, the longest streak of no new top 100 voyager was 2 crew.

Here are the median and average voyage ranks based on how they were obtained:
unknown.png


Let's take a look at 2021 data.unknown.png

The first 4.5 months were, up to Klingon West, already turbulent. It's only during the Waddle mega that we had anything resembling 2020. And then the winter came. The blue trendline not only crossed the vrank 100 line, it's going above 150. While you could still draw a more or less straight line through the red triangles in the first 4.5 months, you can almost draw a flat one in the time since then. The longest streak of no new top100 voyager was 7 crew, followed by 5 crew - twice.

Here are the equivalent median and average voyage ranks for 2021:
unknown.png

Edit: For emphasis, here are the new crew releases with a voyage rank over 150, 2020 vs 2021 (Year-to-date), represented by blue dots:
ncgcwlhizoei.png

Edit: Here's another data point that includes year over year power creep of 3-skill golds, on average, highlighted in red. Given the current trend, that negative number will continue to fall. All data is normalized for today's stat boosts.
6ekxhpnmbjta.png

To reach the power creep level of last year, which is the lowest ever recorded, we'd have to get new crew with an average score of 4411 for the rest of the year. That means that all 3-skill golds released for the rest of the year would need to have an average voyage rank of what is now #3.

What is going on? Am I the only one troubled by these new trends?
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Comments

  • (HGH)Apollo(HGH)Apollo ✭✭✭✭✭
    The second half you mislabeled the 2021 as 2020 when you said “let’s take a look at 2020 data” then showed the second graph. I agree the crew since the Barry Waddle mega have generally been quite bad and disappointing. I firmly believe no new card should be over top 100 in voyage rank unless it brings something else to the table like strong gauntlet or arena use.
    Let’s fly!
  • Captain IdolCaptain Idol ✭✭✭✭✭
    This some stunning work!! Voyage trends have definitely been down not to mention the ever over-saturation of CMD/DIP/SEC combinations!
  • NoNameNamerNoNameNamer ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2021
    This some stunning work!! Voyage trends have definitely been down not to mention the ever over-saturation of CMD/DIP/SEC combinations!

    There's definitely something to say about that too. Most of the top voyagers added this winter season were CMD/DIP/SEC. WRG was reluctant to give us anything in top 100 that didn't have an awful skill set. No wonder then that one of the biggest values we've got was Chuft-Captain, released as a Tuesday 6-pack, despite breaking top 100 only just.

    Not counting Scapegoat O'Brien, we've had 3 crew in top 70 this winter season. Two are CMD/DIP/SEC and the other is the next worst thing, CMD/DIP/SCI.

    We've had 7 crew in top 100 released as event rewards. 4 are CMD/DIP/SEC, 1 CMD/DIP/SCI and the other 2 are Kal'Hyah Bashir (debuted at #87) and Tribble Quark (#92).
    The second half you mislabeled the 2021 as 2020 when you said “let’s take a look at 2020 data” then showed the second graph. I agree the crew since the Barry Waddle mega have generally been quite bad and disappointing. I firmly believe no new card should be over top 100 in voyage rank unless it brings something else to the table like strong gauntlet or arena use.
    Thank you. I have made the correction.
  • NoNameNamerNoNameNamer ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2021
    In case this wasn't immediately visible, I manually drew these straight lines through the red triangles.
    unknown.png
    These are important because:
    1. The fact that we can draw straight lines means we're getting top100 voyagers at a regular pace, and the pace is given by the steepness of these lines
    2. We can identify changes in the rate at which we're getting them if the straight line is broken

    The beginning of the post-Waddle winter season is perfectly visible here. We've had 23 top100 voyagers in the first 4.5 months of this year, followed by 9 top100 voyagers in the following 4.5 months.

    2020 had a perfect straight line, no trend changes and a much regular pace of releasing top 100 voyagers.

    If you are concerned about power creep as far as it impacts this data, and the expanding number of crew, I can draw these same graphs using voyage rank percentiles at the time of their debut to normalize for total number of crew and the pictures would tell the exact same story.
  • NoNameNamerNoNameNamer ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2021
    Here are voyage rank percentiles at the time of debut, on a color gradient.
    EDIT: this % represents the percentage of crew that are below that voyage rank, taking into account the pool of available crew at the time.

    This winter:
    unknown.png

    vs Waddle mega
    unknown.png

    vs early 2021
    nqne217skk0c.png


    vs some other periods in recent years (too many to choose from):
    unknown.png

    unknown.png

    And my favorite:
    unknown.png

  • As impressive as that looks, there’s no way I can read all that so I will faithfully take your word for it 🖖
    “What's a knockout like you doing in a computer-generated gin joint like this?”

    Check out my ‘Characters’ thread on the holodeck!

    Proud member of Patterns of Force
    Captain Level 93
    Played since January 2017

    TP: Do better!!!


  • ~peregrine~~peregrine~ ✭✭✭✭✭
    As impressive as that looks, there’s no way I can read all that so I will faithfully take your word for it 🖖

    @TP do better!! ~Colli~ (PoF) , welcome to the meta-game, LOL. Now, can I interest you in a spreadsheet? 😉
    "In the short run, the game defines the players. But in the long run, it's us players who define the game." — Nicky Case, The Evolution of Trust
  • Makes me think of @Automaton_2000's nuts (for the winter - get your mind out of the gutter!)
    Going boldly since April 2020
    VIP 6 | Currently level 87 | My Datacore profile!
    Best Event Finishes: #160 in Sto'Vo'Kor Lost 2 | #303 in Symbiosis | #315 in Living a Legend | #334 in Boogeyman
  • NoNameNamerNoNameNamer ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2021
    Makes me think of @Automaton_2000's nuts (for the winter - get your mind out of the gutter!)
    That's the inspiration ;)

    For the tl;dr crew, here's a simplification. Red/white color bad, green color good. On the left is what we've been getting recently, on the right is what we used to get at some point.

    z8j8rnlyryvz.png

    This can't be a revelation to anyone paying any attention to this game. This has also been a topic of discussion for months now in other communities.
  • Captain IdolCaptain Idol ✭✭✭✭✭
    Makes me think of @Automaton_2000's nuts (for the winter - get your mind out of the gutter!)
    That's the inspiration ;)

    For the tl;dr crew, here's a simplification. Red/white color bad, green color good. On the left is what we've been getting recently, on the right is what we used to get at some point.

    z8j8rnlyryvz.png

    This can't be a revelation to anyone paying any attention to this game. This has also been a topic of discussion for months now in other communities.

    It's not just the downward trend for voyages but the overall use of a crew. How many 1/5s do we have that were event one offs, destined for a large base in the one trait match they get once a year, or have terrible stats bordering on utterly useless (looking at you Tribble Chekov) but forfill a very difficult, if not impossible collection.
    Where is the MEDaissance of mid 2019 where we had bangers like God Q, Dr Pollard, Mycelial Culber. Where are the strange but useful crew like Dr. Bones McCoy or niche Gauntlet crew like Twilight T'Pol.
    Where are the crew that interesting to talk about, like Korby, Prisoner Kim, Homesteader Janeway or EV Suit Nhan. Since Barry Waddle, Dexa, Human Saru It's just been a long run of straight up boring crew intersected by the odd powerhouse.
  • ~peregrine~~peregrine~ ✭✭✭✭✭
    Makes me think of @Automaton_2000's nuts (for the winter - get your mind out of the gutter!)
    That's the inspiration ;)

    For the tl;dr crew, here's a simplification. Red/white color bad, green color good. On the left is what we've been getting recently, on the right is what we used to get at some point.

    z8j8rnlyryvz.png

    This can't be a revelation to anyone paying any attention to this game. This has also been a topic of discussion for months now in other communities.

    It's not just the downward trend for voyages but the overall use of a crew. How many 1/5s do we have that were event one offs, destined for a large base in the one trait match they get once a year, or have terrible stats bordering on utterly useless (looking at you Tribble Chekov) but forfill a very difficult, if not impossible collection.
    Where is the MEDaissance of mid 2019 where we had bangers like God Q, Dr Pollard, Mycelial Culber. Where are the strange but useful crew like Dr. Bones McCoy or niche Gauntlet crew like Twilight T'Pol.
    Where are the crew that interesting to talk about, like Korby, Prisoner Kim, Homesteader Janeway or EV Suit Nhan. Since Barry Waddle, Dexa, Human Saru It's just been a long run of straight up boring crew intersected by the odd powerhouse.

    Oh, do you want something new to do with your crew? Hm, maybe you could ask @WRG Ben about that. 😉
    "In the short run, the game defines the players. But in the long run, it's us players who define the game." — Nicky Case, The Evolution of Trust
  • NoNameNamerNoNameNamer ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2021
    Here's another data point that includes year over year power creep of 3-skill golds, on average, highlighted in red. Given the current trend, that negative number will continue to fall. All data is normalized for today's stat boosts, as usual.

    gacnqim1rzf7.png

    To reach the power creep level of last year, which is the lowest ever recorded, we'd have to get new crew with an average score of 4411 for the rest of the year. That means that all 3-skill golds released for the rest of the year would need to have an average voyage rank of what is now #3.
  • TrollitaTrollita ✭✭✭✭
    I had no idea Luma pulled out so far ahead when compared to her peers, though I suppose that is more a testament to the mean score of 2021 power levels rather than her individual merit. Likewise, I had no idea how OBJECTIVELY AWFUL Regency Riker was, even by 2021 standards.
  • Honestly? I don't mind them slowing down the power creep of the game. It means that your crew doesn't get progressively worse that fast and has a staying power of about 3 years compared to 1-1.5. If they wanted (which we don't know for sure) to increase voyage strength, they can allow us to use more ship traits on voyages than 1.
  • (HGH)Apollo(HGH)Apollo ✭✭✭✭✭
    Trollita wrote: »
    I had no idea Luma pulled out so far ahead when compared to her peers, though I suppose that is more a testament to the mean score of 2021 power levels rather than her individual merit. Likewise, I had no idea how OBJECTIVELY AWFUL Regency Riker was, even by 2021 standards.

    Regency Riker has poor stats because he is two skilled but no one gets that Riker for the stats, you get him for the art.

    vr465r2yfmdw.png
    Let’s fly!
  • Zombie Squirrel [Retired]Zombie Squirrel [Retired] ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2021
    Trollita wrote: »
    I had no idea Luma pulled out so far ahead when compared to her peers, though I suppose that is more a testament to the mean score of 2021 power levels rather than her individual merit. Likewise, I had no idea how OBJECTIVELY AWFUL Regency Riker was, even by 2021 standards.

    Regency Riker has poor stats because he is two skilled but no one gets that Riker for the stats, you get him for the art.

    vr465r2yfmdw.png

    Wrong!

    Even for 2 skill crew his stats is poor.
    2021 it should be 1300+ for skill 1 and 1050+ for skill 2,
    and not 1100/100!
  • Great presentation of the data. I've observed this, too, but didn't go full stats on it. I think the change in direction was made with added collection tiers/new collections in mind. New crew aren't better than old ones you have necessarily, but you still "need" them to chase that new milestone and stat boost. The "rising tide lifts all boats" effect in action.
  • And y'all thought I went down some chart-y rabbit holes! This is remarkable work, @NoNameNamer . You've made my little pie charts laughably primitive. Very nicely done.

    For me, the bigger picture is the point made by @Captain Idol that the crew themselves have been mundane. I'll scrutinize stats and traits in a behold, but never for an event. In fairness to WRG, it was inevitable that after five years most everyone who would excite me would already be added. Even being among the remaining DS9 pool isn't enough to guarantee my excitement.

    On that note, I would add that it is disappointing when a crew member does excite me, but seldom use once I have them. One thing that would at least help with that would be to expand the pools of crew with certain skill combinations, or traits. Right now, for instance, there are only six MED Mavericks. Only two are 5*'s: Kelis (added last November) and Delta Flyer Paris (added back in 2016). Of the remaining four, one is 2* Nurse Paris. Two candidates occur to me offhand: Crusher when she organized that summit that went wrong, and Bashir when he and O'Brien infiltrated Sloane's mind. I'm sure there are others. I realize this would make it harder to narrow down specific crew in the retrieval portal but that's a price I'm willing to pay to rejuvenate my interest.
  • (HGH)Apollo(HGH)Apollo ✭✭✭✭✭
    Trollita wrote: »
    I had no idea Luma pulled out so far ahead when compared to her peers, though I suppose that is more a testament to the mean score of 2021 power levels rather than her individual merit. Likewise, I had no idea how OBJECTIVELY AWFUL Regency Riker was, even by 2021 standards.

    Regency Riker has poor stats because he is two skilled but no one gets that Riker for the stats, you get him for the art.

    vr465r2yfmdw.png

    Wrong!

    Even for 2 skill crew his stats is poor.
    2021 it should be 1300+ for skill 1 and 1050+ for skill 2,
    and not 1100/100!
    Trollita wrote: »
    I had no idea Luma pulled out so far ahead when compared to her peers, though I suppose that is more a testament to the mean score of 2021 power levels rather than her individual merit. Likewise, I had no idea how OBJECTIVELY AWFUL Regency Riker was, even by 2021 standards.

    Regency Riker has poor stats because he is two skilled but no one gets that Riker for the stats, you get him for the art.

    vr465r2yfmdw.png

    Wrong!

    Even for 2 skill crew his stats is poor.
    2021 it should be 1300+ for skill 1 and 1050+ for skill 2,
    and not 1100/100!

    Not wrong at all. Not many 2021 two skilled legendaries to compare him against but he has comparable to a lil better voyage scores than 2020 two skilled legendaries. It is correct his shuttle use would be more limited than other
    Trollita wrote: »
    I had no idea Luma pulled out so far ahead when compared to her peers, though I suppose that is more a testament to the mean score of 2021 power levels rather than her individual merit. Likewise, I had no idea how OBJECTIVELY AWFUL Regency Riker was, even by 2021 standards.

    Regency Riker has poor stats because he is two skilled but no one gets that Riker for the stats, you get him for the art.

    vr465r2yfmdw.png

    Wrong!

    Even for 2 skill crew his stats is poor.
    2021 it should be 1300+ for skill 1 and 1050+ for skill 2,
    and not 1100/100!

    Not wrong at all. Not many 2021 two skilled legendaries to compare him against but he has comparable to a lil better voyage scores than many 2020 two skilled legendaries. It is correct his base stats are worse so shuttle use would be more limited than other two skilled legendaries but you are ignoring his great proficiency stats. He has the #2 com-dip gauntlet pairing with him only behind Balok.
    Let’s fly!
  • I'm OK with some collection fodder, although it helps if they have other niche value, like best base for that trait.

    But I also have to admit I've only pursued ranked legendaries twice since the Waddle Mega, where I ranked all four times. While I may not share the level of concern that many here have . . . I'm also not pursuing recent crew.

    I don't need someone to be a top 50 voyager to pique my interest. Usually it's a character I really like, although it definitely grabs my attention when someone is a voyager with a rare skillset, or are a two-skill shuttle powerhouse.
    Six degrees in Inter-species Veterinary Medicine. Treating all manner of critters, from Tribbles to Humans.

    Starport
  • NoNameNamerNoNameNamer ✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2021
    Overlooking an earlier discussion in my fleet:
    I agree. Life’s too short. I don’t know why they don’t put in a good 5* card to make u play

    There’s not much more to it.
  • Overlooking an earlier discussion in my fleet:
    I agree. Life’s too short. I don’t know why they don’t put in a good 5* card to make u play

    There’s not much more to it.

    Probably because people buy them regardless?

    Plenty of "collectors" out there that don't care as much about stats.
  • Awsome work @NoNameNamer! Still I try not to see that part of the game, specially if you want to play on a low or almost null budget. The crewmen I obtain are mostly from events.
  • Zombie Squirrel [Retired]Zombie Squirrel [Retired] ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited September 2021
    Trend continues with todays new tuesday pack 5* 😣
    t69lqni91to6.jpeg
  • And with new Spock…the sad story goes on….
    I meanwhile doubt they have any clue about stats. We‘re seeing a stats deflation.

    hnu320xbappu.jpeg
  • ~peregrine~~peregrine~ ✭✭✭✭✭
    And with new Spock…the sad story goes on….
    I meanwhile doubt they have any clue about stats. We‘re seeing a stats deflation.

    hnu320xbappu.jpeg

    Dexa, Saruman, Spork … all good things …
    🖖
    "In the short run, the game defines the players. But in the long run, it's us players who define the game." — Nicky Case, The Evolution of Trust
  • He’s “free” so you can’t expect the best. Although i’m pretty happy with Spock myself 🖖
    “What's a knockout like you doing in a computer-generated gin joint like this?”

    Check out my ‘Characters’ thread on the holodeck!

    Proud member of Patterns of Force
    Captain Level 93
    Played since January 2017

    TP: Do better!!!


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