Has anyone else won a gauntlet and still not got Guinean? Won my first gauntlet since locutus and only got crons and equipment.
Yes, but you are less likely to win Guinan with the vault, because of more things to win, than the others.
On my second account only won one gauntlet (since Guinan was added) to get that achievement. Do not have Guinan. I usually finish in the 11-15 rank on purpose. But may have better chance in the reward one lower than that still.
Has anyone else won a gauntlet and still not got Guinean? Won my first gauntlet since locutus and only got crons and equipment.
Yes, but you are less likely to win Guinan with the vault, because of more things to win, than the others.
Do you have a source for this?
In-game description (for what it's worth) describes the vault as the "Best chance of Rare Reward".
Data in the wiki is far from complete and I've never seen any sort of analysis comparing the chances at different levels. Without a TON of drop data, it would be very very hard to accurately make that assertion (since we're dealing with fractions-of-a-percent-chance here).
I have more unbelievable losses percentage wise than I have unbelievable wins percentage wise.
My solution, I at most play gauntlet for 30 hours a week. That way I have less to get mad about and it does help. I still almost threw my phone against the wall once though.
I wish I had more of those unbelievable wins. But as Murphy Laws say if the chance for a bad outcome exists it will happen. In this case if I give the game a chance to beat me it will. Though I must admit it usually happens for me if my odds to win are 60%. Those 90% chance to win that I lose are very rare for me and still probably are happening less than 10% when they should be happening at 10%.
But they are more frustrating than any other losses and usually end a streak.
I only have had two unbelievable wins since I have played gauntlet on two accounts. That is over 9000 gauntlet rounds. You can be sure that 8000 of those are battles I am most likely to win. And probably only 500 are battles where I am most likely to lose. Usually after one of those unbelievable losses all I chose are battles that I am sure to lose to finish round. Some of those battles may not be winnable I do believe two more losses I had 5% Crit chance and Crit every one. But it could have been my max and I still would have lost.
I had most of my crew already spent, and I don't like to use Merits to refresh when I have few good options available, and so I just run matches to exhaust everyone to continue growing my count towards eventually adding a star to Locutus ... therefore I had my 20% fatigued Guinan with only a 5% Crit chance going against the non-fatigued Kirk with a 45% Crit chance, totally expecting to lose ... but instead:
Please don't tell me the Defender always has better luck with their rolls / Crit's
No Guinan yet, here, either. I'd really like to get her! I'm a regular Gauntlet player, however I am not spending dil on restoring fatigued players or extending streaks after losses...I was spending a little when I got Locutus, but I was sporadic with it at best. I wonder if that's the difference? Anyone with more knowledge of how the RNG works for Gauntlet? Is it biased towards spending?
Spending doesn't seem to matter. I received 4 Guinen's from a 6-win streak, 12-win streak, 30-win streak & a 3rd place finish, never spent any dilithium. Never did get Locutus though. It's just seems like random luck.
I don't usually have such moments, except when I lose when I thought I had good stats. But a few minutes ago I had two wins when I was significantly out-classed. By the numbers, I should have lost both of these.
I'm willing to bet there are many more players that encounter these unlikely events quite often but they either don't say it for x reasons or they don't visit the forums.
We were exactly matched. I expected a 50/50 shot and it to be very close. I'm surprised to have lost by so much. (No complaint. This morning I won three in a row where the numbers were not on my side.)
I actually was not intending this to be a "O the gauntlet is unfair" post but simply a "wow I didn't see that one coming" post.
I like the premise of the thread as I think it might do some people good to understand and maybe even find humor in the nature and tyranny of the RNG every once in awhile.
For a time I was collecting screenshots of underdog victories and thinking of making a graphic and a thread about it, but after all the time I put into Gauntlet Data Set: Mirror Matches, I decided against it. Perhaps some people who perceive shenanigans might find that, and some of the other posts linked to from there, an interesting resource to consider.
On the subject of Guinan, I got mine from a 3rd win box, IIRC. Didn't win a Locutus.
We are all downstream from each other and ourselves, therefore choose to be relaxed and groovy. Consider participating in civil discourse, understanding the Tardigrade, and wandering with the Subspace Eddies.
I hate Sulan vs. Mirror Phlox duels because the pendulum can swing so wildly due to their proficiency ranges. Even when Sulan has both skills and Phlox just has one, it's a gamble. This one went in my favor earlier:
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Yes, but you are less likely to win Guinan with the vault, because of more things to win, than the others.
On my second account only won one gauntlet (since Guinan was added) to get that achievement. Do not have Guinan. I usually finish in the 11-15 rank on purpose. But may have better chance in the reward one lower than that still.
Do you have a source for this?
In-game description (for what it's worth) describes the vault as the "Best chance of Rare Reward".
Data in the wiki is far from complete and I've never seen any sort of analysis comparing the chances at different levels. Without a TON of drop data, it would be very very hard to accurately make that assertion (since we're dealing with fractions-of-a-percent-chance here).
My solution, I at most play gauntlet for 30 hours a week. That way I have less to get mad about and it does help. I still almost threw my phone against the wall once though.
I wish I had more of those unbelievable wins. But as Murphy Laws say if the chance for a bad outcome exists it will happen. In this case if I give the game a chance to beat me it will. Though I must admit it usually happens for me if my odds to win are 60%. Those 90% chance to win that I lose are very rare for me and still probably are happening less than 10% when they should be happening at 10%.
But they are more frustrating than any other losses and usually end a streak.
I only have had two unbelievable wins since I have played gauntlet on two accounts. That is over 9000 gauntlet rounds. You can be sure that 8000 of those are battles I am most likely to win. And probably only 500 are battles where I am most likely to lose. Usually after one of those unbelievable losses all I chose are battles that I am sure to lose to finish round. Some of those battles may not be winnable I do believe two more losses I had 5% Crit chance and Crit every one. But it could have been my max and I still would have lost.
Just so you know.... That would make the Gauntlet your part-time job.
Blondie has 45%, ugly has 25%.
4 rounds against him, 4 loses, always outcrited.
8 times i have used nechayev this gauntlet, 7 crits in total, never more than 1...
LE.
Thank you, DB!
I had most of my crew already spent, and I don't like to use Merits to refresh when I have few good options available, and so I just run matches to exhaust everyone to continue growing my count towards eventually adding a star to Locutus ... therefore I had my 20% fatigued Guinan with only a 5% Crit chance going against the non-fatigued Kirk with a 45% Crit chance, totally expecting to lose ... but instead:
Please don't tell me the Defender always has better luck with their rolls / Crit's
This was just a few minutes ago. Na Hayes is a 45% and Riker a 25%, but she had him well beat on stats.
Spending doesn't seem to matter. I received 4 Guinen's from a 6-win streak, 12-win streak, 30-win streak & a 3rd place finish, never spent any dilithium. Never did get Locutus though. It's just seems like random luck.
Kira 45% vs sela 25%.... this is the 3rd time today that something like this did not just happen
45% against 5% smh
45% vs 25%...
I'm willing to bet there are many more players that encounter these unlikely events quite often but they either don't say it for x reasons or they don't visit the forums.
We were exactly matched. I expected a 50/50 shot and it to be very close. I'm surprised to have lost by so much. (No complaint. This morning I won three in a row where the numbers were not on my side.)
I like the premise of the thread as I think it might do some people good to understand and maybe even find humor in the nature and tyranny of the RNG every once in awhile.
For a time I was collecting screenshots of underdog victories and thinking of making a graphic and a thread about it, but after all the time I put into Gauntlet Data Set: Mirror Matches, I decided against it. Perhaps some people who perceive shenanigans might find that, and some of the other posts linked to from there, an interesting resource to consider.
On the subject of Guinan, I got mine from a 3rd win box, IIRC. Didn't win a Locutus.
Consider participating in civil discourse, understanding the Tardigrade, and wandering with the Subspace Eddies.
65% vs 5%
And they complain when we call them out on their cheating
Don't remember who had higher stats off hand but losing by 1 point hurts.
My favorite which I can't find a screenshot of was when I lost by 1 point... I rolled 0 1 0 on the bottom and they rolled 0 1 1 on the top.
And, then, BAM!!!!!
Scott
Bam!!!!! The Sequel:
Scott
Next battle, 0/6 45% vs 2/3 25%.
Not your day, huh?
Nope.