I would echo the comments here, the description is clear, but the value isn't there.
You're on the right track. I like these targeted packs but why are you complicating things?
Why wasn't this the exact same pool of Romulans as the guarantee but otherwise a regular pack? Price it the same as a premium portal pack and depending on the theme, I think you'll get lot's of interest.
I would certainly like the idea of a Borg pack where unlike a premium portal I'm guaranteed one of (currently) ~650 purple or golds, I'm guaranteed one of purple or gold Borg.
Fairly sure I'll wind up as the person who spent the most dil on this pack and while part of that was the cost and pack contents, I also got very unlucky(<1/20 type luck on going as many pulls as I did without a copy of the new gold).
Objectively, this is basically 27.5k dil on average for the new gold, compared to 1/18k in a normal 10 pack. Which while pretty bad, isn't as bad as the Chef RIker cost was last year. The honor returns for this pack, while not up to a normal 10 pack, are in line with the 10 card 6500 pack pulls in a normal week.
One other comment I have is that not having the 6500/5500 pulls also runs the risk of people having to pull 100+ times for the gold. And note to the developers, going 0 for 5-10 on a 5500/6500 pull is a lot less mentally jarring than 0 for 50/100 on a 550/650 pull. And creating a memorable experience out of bad luck, is not something you want to be doing.
For all I know, this pack will wind up with decent sales because a few of us collectors spent more dil than usual. I'm sure the metrics will look nice until a few months from now when 10%+ of the people who pulled significantly on this pack wind up quiting the game or not spending any more.
I've decided to dub these 'demerit packs' - you use dil to get a merit pack pull. And TP/WR get a demerit in my score book for the very concept.
I like it. All in favor of dubbing these demerit packs say I!
Aye
Aye!
“A committee is a cul-de-sac, down which good ideas are lured and quietly strangled.” —Mark TwainMEMBER: [BoB] Barrel of Bloodwine... We are recruiting and putting the “curv” in scurvy! Best Event Finish: #3 Honor Debt: Inconceivable...Honor Bank Account: Slowly building...
I don't believe these packs lend themselves well to the way they are being used. A limited pull number would go over better if the "feature" wasn't made so much harder to get. The field is too big. They look like a way to drain dilithium faster than a 10 pack and give less back.
Slot one. Drop the honor and ration idea. It's filler, you know it and we know it.
Slot two. No one is going to pay dilithium for 1*, 2*, or 3* crew. Unless they are uber-gratification oriented, we know the cards will get to portal and those drop in the first 6 hours of a voyage. Again, the pay out is filler and we all know it. Unless you are certain to get it and it's new, no one will spend dilithium for < 3* crew.
Slot three. You have reduced the chance to get a specific SR or Gold considerablely. And because the other two are filler you only have a single shot at it. (10/650 vs 1/500). The feature card's odds may seem better but 1% ten times from a field of 3, versus 10% one time from a field the size of a collection. By simple math you have reduced the pay out to a single slot. So at a ratio of 10:650, the price for this pack should scale to 65 dilithium for that slot. For three slots the price should be no higher than 200 dilithium.
This may be super rude, but I'm going to get super arrogant and simply state, you are using this concept wrong.
This pack concept needs to be used for times when you want to drop something new that isn't crew or the feature crew is from a narrow field or simply certain.
For example, if you were launching the Artifact. Cut the price to 360. Slot1 (a field of SR or Gold romulan ships. Slot2 300 Artifact. Slot3 a bonus of Romulan crew, from the Collection, of SR>. The feature should be easier to get.
Example2. When you are offer a limited quantity buy. A new Gold with random garnish. Or a random chance at three new crew, but only a single shot.
When the feature is crew. Offering < 3* crew as a feature for Dilithium is only going to work if the odds are certain or very narrow. If the feature is SR> the field can't be higher than a BePurple or a BeGold. In a 10x people pay 65/slot. If you are going to raise the price per slot the payout will be expected to be better. No one buys a lottery ticket at double the price unless the odds look better or the prize is bigger. You are essentially offering the same "SR> guarantee" for a single slot that people expect from a 10x. But you shrunk the extra payout from 9 to 2.
These packs aren't good for featured golds. They may be ok for featured new SR cards as long as the payout is more certain. They can work as a draw to spend on new schematics with a bonus. But they will not work for as is for anything more than 100 dilithium/slot. It's basic math.
I've decided to dub these 'demerit packs' - you use dil to get a merit pack pull. And TP/WR get a demerit in my score book for the very concept.
I like it. All in favor of dubbing these demerit packs say I!
Aye
Aye!!!!!
And someone actually suggested that they make the price higher than a Merit Pull? 1000 Merits would be a step back in the wrong direction. Yeah, this "Pack" guarantees one SuperRare. However, with the regular 725 Merit Pull, there is the statistically slim, but still possible chance, of pulling more than one SuperRare or even Legendary. Limited to one, and only one SuperRare or Legendary? I would suggest 250 Merits a Pull. {A little over 1/3 the cost of a regular Merit Pull.} For Dilithiums, 1/10 of the possible SuperRare or Legendary Drops, in a regular Ten Pull? And two guaranteed Whammies? Perhaps 70-75 Dilithiums.
For posts of examples of great Merit Pulls, check out the Merit Pull thread:
The last one was most certainly a Demerit pack. The last one was one drop of a rare or better crew. The odds of a legendary dropping was 2%. Of course, the new crew was a rare so better chance of getting that rare new crew. But the cost of 650 dil.🙄
This weeks is one drop guaranteed to be either a superrare at 90% odds or a legendary at 10%. At a cost of 550 dil. However, the new crew of a legendary is in a group of 5 total. When compared to the normal x10 pack for Tuesday, it is not worth it.
So most certainly improvements were made making it about 6 times better than a merit pull. A comparable cost in merits might be 4500 merits. (Edit: 1.62% is the odds of a legendary crew dropping in a merit pull) Edit2: @mejoyh my calculation is the average number of legendaries you will get from a merit pull. The odds of getting one or more legendaries in a merit pull is 1.61%
I was not going to agree with calling this a demerit pack. However, when I compare it to the standard Tuesday new crew pack offers, it is less value for the dil. paid, so it does become meritless.
I would be more inclined to purchase, under some different circumstances.
If the featured collection was a smaller group, such as wild west, holoprogram enthusiasts, set sail etc.
And then ONLY if mini events were to become regular occurrences, like once or twice a month, and remained free to play.
Unless I had just participated in a mini event and had dilithium to burn, I would not buy this type of pack. Too little potential for my precious dilithium.
I think this pack is miles better than the diplomat deluge in 2 ways.
1) Its cheaper (by 100 dil)
2) It guarantees a purple which at least starts to match the guarantee of a normal 650 dil pack
On the other hand, you are definitely getting less 'pulls' but I wanted to do some analysis. This is predicated on the basis that you are opening packs for the 5* card and all those 4* and under are just honor for you.
The new pack format has a 5* drop rate of 10% vs a drop rate of 1.27% on a normal 10 pack. So if your main goal was to get 5* cards, does the increased drop rate make up for the less cards? (CAVEAT! Its been a long time since my stats classes so if there are any math whizzes out there pls feel free to correct)
Ill calculate the chance of a 5* in a pack by looking at the probability of NOT getting a gold
New pack format - Chance of no gold = 90% => Chance of gold = 10% (pretty straight forward, what it says on the tin)
Standard pack format - Chance of no gold = (98.73%)^10 = 88% => Chance of gold = 12%
So if you compare it against the 490 dil pack, this the new pack format is worse off in many ways
1) Lower chance to get a gold (per pack)
2) Lower Honor return (from airlocking 4* and below)
3) Replicator Rations vs Ship Schematics
4) More expensive
The only thing going for the new packs is that the pool is smaller than a normal pack so if you are specifically short on Romulans, then this might be a marginal benefit? And if you really wanted Narek, then this is the pack for you!
All in all this is still a terrible idea and its priced way too high. Some suggestions to improve
1) Dropping the price - I feel like something in the 320-350 dil range would be more digestible
2) For 1st card slot - Swap out replicators for 4* (80%) or 5* (20%) ship schematics
3) For 2nd card slot - Just get rid of 1* and 2* cards and add in chance to roll 4* and 5* cards (maybe 3*-80%, 4*-15%, 5*-5%)
This would still result in a lower honor return per pack but the cheaper price and increased chance of a 5* would make it more appealing.
I think this pack is miles better than the diplomat deluge in 2 ways.
1) Its cheaper (by 100 dil)
2) It guarantees a purple which at least starts to match the guarantee of a normal 650 dil pack
On the other hand, you are definitely getting less 'pulls' but I wanted to do some analysis. This is predicated on the basis that you are opening packs for the 5* card and all those 4* and under are just honor for you.
The new pack format has a 5* drop rate of 10% vs a drop rate of 1.27% on a normal 10 pack. So if your main goal was to get 5* cards, does the increased drop rate make up for the less cards? (CAVEAT! Its been a long time since my stats classes so if there are any math whizzes out there pls feel free to correct)
Ill calculate the chance of a 5* in a pack by looking at the probability of NOT getting a gold
New pack format - Chance of no gold = 90% => Chance of gold = 10% (pretty straight forward, what it says on the tin)
Standard pack format - Chance of no gold = (98.73%)^10 = 88% => Chance of gold = 12%
So if you compare it against the 490 dil pack, this the new pack format is worse off in many ways
1) Lower chance to get a gold (per pack)
2) Lower Honor return (from airlocking 4* and below)
3) Replicator Rations vs Ship Schematics
4) More expensive
The only thing going for the new packs is that the pool is smaller than a normal pack so if you are specifically short on Romulans, then this might be a marginal benefit? And if you really wanted Narek, then this is the pack for you!
All in all this is still a terrible idea and its priced way too high. Some suggestions to improve
1) Dropping the price - I feel like something in the 320-350 dil range would be more digestible
2) For 1st card slot - Swap out replicators for 4* (80%) or 5* (20%) ship schematics
3) For 2nd card slot - Just get rid of 1* and 2* cards and add in chance to roll 4* and 5* cards (maybe 3*-80%, 4*-15%, 5*-5%)
This would still result in a lower honor return per pack but the cheaper price and increased chance of a 5* would make it more appealing.
The 490 Pack is a much better deal. Ten Slots, and the chance of the featured Legendary is 1/3. {33.3% repeating.}
Why was Vicki not expelled from Greendale after she literally stabbed Pierce in the face with a pencil?!?!?
I've seen a fair number of mentions of a diluted pool. Personally, I snagged Annika today because I like a sure thing. Maybe the community would find these packs to be a better deal if the odds were adjusted a bit. Maybe something like this:
90% chance of SR crew from featured collection
6% chance of legendary crew from featured collection
4% chance of featured legendary
Then there is the price point. I'm a little torn here. I tend to do recap packs because the dilithium to honor conversion is the most favorable. These collection packs are nearly devoid of honor by comparison. Would the improved odds make up for getting less honor? Not in my mind. I may not be the target market, though.
I tried playing with a few scenarios in my mind. It keeps coming back to honor. I think the best way to sell more Tuesday packs is to load in some honor. Recap packs are kind of the gold standard. They are the gold standard for dilithium to honor. The options I see are to load about 2 honor per 1 dilithium or improve the odds of getting the desired crew enough to justify spending the dilithium.
Oh, and I do want to mention that Paladin made a great point about player experience. Well said.
I think this pack is miles better than the diplomat deluge in 2 ways.
1) Its cheaper (by 100 dil)
2) It guarantees a purple which at least starts to match the guarantee of a normal 650 dil pack
On the other hand, you are definitely getting less 'pulls' but I wanted to do some analysis. This is predicated on the basis that you are opening packs for the 5* card and all those 4* and under are just honor for you.
The new pack format has a 5* drop rate of 10% vs a drop rate of 1.27% on a normal 10 pack. So if your main goal was to get 5* cards, does the increased drop rate make up for the less cards? (CAVEAT! Its been a long time since my stats classes so if there are any math whizzes out there pls feel free to correct)
Ill calculate the chance of a 5* in a pack by looking at the probability of NOT getting a gold
New pack format - Chance of no gold = 90% => Chance of gold = 10% (pretty straight forward, what it says on the tin)
Standard pack format - Chance of no gold = (98.73%)^10 = 88% => Chance of gold = 12%
So if you compare it against the 490 dil pack, this the new pack format is worse off in many ways
1) Lower chance to get a gold (per pack)
2) Lower Honor return (from airlocking 4* and below)
3) Replicator Rations vs Ship Schematics
4) More expensive
The only thing going for the new packs is that the pool is smaller than a normal pack so if you are specifically short on Romulans, then this might be a marginal benefit? And if you really wanted Narek, then this is the pack for you!
All in all this is still a terrible idea and its priced way too high. Some suggestions to improve
1) Dropping the price - I feel like something in the 320-350 dil range would be more digestible
2) For 1st card slot - Swap out replicators for 4* (80%) or 5* (20%) ship schematics
3) For 2nd card slot - Just get rid of 1* and 2* cards and add in chance to roll 4* and 5* cards (maybe 3*-80%, 4*-15%, 5*-5%)
This would still result in a lower honor return per pack but the cheaper price and increased chance of a 5* would make it more appealing.
The premium portal pull statistics given are for one pull. So for x10 pack it is a 12.7% chance of getting a legendary. You did seem to calculate this any how. But it is just 10 times the single chance. I realize though your calculation should be right you are calculating what the odds of not getting a legendary in a x10 pack you are correct. Where as my calculation 'edit: does not include' the chance of getting more legendaries then one in a x10 pack.
I posted above that I think the solution is just to increase the legendary drop rate to 20%. I think that would be an adequate solution. Because I was thinking of that making up for honor and schematics (I think a lot of us still need some of the newer ship schematics) I was not thinking of the diluted drop of newer crew. But it seems adequate for that too.
Edit clarification: my odds are the average number of legendaries you will get for a x10 pack. mejoyh is the odds of an x10 pack containing one or more legendaries.
I think it's great to try different types of packs, and I'm glad to see TP iterating on feedback.
If these dropped a behold I'd be more interested. The risk of a useless card is just too high otherwise.
Granted, I'm not interested in Romulans, which is fine. I'm not, others are. But considering this for a collection I haven't completed, like my 6/10 Borg . . . I still wouldn't risk it without a behold. But if it had one, I could see grabbing a few of these.
Six degrees in Inter-species Veterinary Medicine. Treating all manner of critters, from Tribbles to Humans.
Thinking about it again, what makes the pack so disappointing is that:
1) it offers a lower chance to get the crew you want if compared to a normal Tuesday pack,
2) it offers less honor as a consolation prize.
Both those things would have to change, or at least one of them would have to change significantly, to make them worth considering.
But Tuesday packs and packs in general are already frustrating to long-time players, because most of the time they only drop a little bit of honor and nothing else of use.
What people here seem to like the most are campaigns, mega recap packs and the honor pulls for Convergence Day.
The things they include(d) are: citations, a certainty of a specific crew, a good chance of a specific crew, (a chance of) more stars on a specific crew, decent amounts of honor, begolds. A decent amount of specific 5* ship schematics wouldn't be bad either.
Generally speaking, a pack that gives us more of what we want and need instead of less would be great. And even if the price was higher than I'm willing to pay, someone else here would be happy about it. The current format is just giving us less than what we're used to.
The description text is more clear, the legendary drop rates are better, there are no trainers, and the price is slightly lower. This is one step forward.
Except Romulans in this game are terrible, the new card is a legendary in a watered down pool, it's still only three drops with mostly trash offerings in addition to trash cards, and the price is too damn high. This is two steps back.
Seeing this "<snip>~Shan" type of offer return is a serous erosion of trust in the new ownership.
And yet, people are still buying. 🤦
If Picard and Disco are considered by some to be "dark", this aĉa fripono must be akin to the dark of a black hole.
The description text is more clear, the legendary drop rates are better, there are no trainers, and the price is slightly lower. This is one step forward.
Except Romulans in this game are terrible, the new card is a legendary in a watered down pool, it's still only three drops with mostly trash offerings in addition to trash cards, and the price is too damn high. This is two steps back.
Seeing this "<snip>~Shan" type of offer return is a serous erosion of trust in the new ownership.
And yet, people are still buying. 🤦
If Picard and Disco are considered by some to be "dark", this aĉa fripono must be akin to the dark of a black hole.
If I ever start an indie band, we are definitely calling ourselves Watered Down Pool. At minimum, our first album will be called that.
I saw this and while I appreciate your trying something new, you forget most long term players have the SR crew already immortal. You are therefore alienating 90% of your playerbase for a lower chance than the usual tuesday packs so not even the whales would be advised to buy.
While the description is more clear, it's still a bad deal. The chances to get a Romulan you can't get elsewhere is too low and the fact it's only 3 pulls, one of which is replicator rations easily gotten through inventory, doesn't make it worth the price.
As Dennis Miller said, "Hey folks, two of **tsk tsk** is still **tsk tsk**."
I think these pull offers should be a bit like a campaign with two options
Tier 1 = 1 pull based on merits which gives you one Super rare behold for the SR cards in the featured pack along with 3/4 star trainers and rations/ 3 star crew. Cost....around 1000 merits (as the merit pull is currently 725)
Tier 2 = 1 pull based on dilthium which gives you one Legendary behold for the cards in the featured pack on offer plus 4/5 star trainers and rations. Cost...around 1000 dilithium (as a premium pull is currently 650)
Frankly, I think TP paid attention to my comparison to the single pull I posted last time. So it did adjust the price towards that single pull. However, at the 550 dil. price the comparison still will be made by us to the x10 pull.
So either as I suggested the chance of a legendary drop should be increased to 20% or the cost in dil. needs to be lowered to make it less similar to an x10 pull.
I would say if they just wanted to lower dil. then something like 350 might be the better choice. And, they may have to work on x10 version that drops a guaranteed legendary.
I think it's becoming obvious the new PTB intend to make the game cost more. Not a complaint. It's just capitalism. They could try and make it less obvious, but maybe extreme honesty is better (if I wasted effort on that reference, I'll be upset).
I pulled the pack expecting a discounted 10x and ended up with trash.
If you guys are going to pull this sort of stunt, then make it obvious what we are getting.
The Picard pack was at least clear that we'd get shafted by both the price and the odds.
This one is worse because...
- Poor and unclear grammar (what is 'Get a The Romulan'?).
- Poor interface (an 'i' icon the size of a pebble... I look at that for ODDS not content).
- It uses misleading and similar art style as the Mega Event Recap packs or the Elusive Treasures packs (a pointless collage).
- It's advertised using the same space as a weekly or special offer, but wasting all the space that could be used to explain the pack (which is done on Fenris Seven, EV Nahn, all those shuttle boost packs, the above mentioned Recap or ET packs, etc.).
The Picard Diplomacy pack was SPECIFIC and CLEAR on what you get, which is why I purchased that item even with the terrible odds and return (what flaming bag of shiitakes).
This pack is unclear and the worst hogwash you guys have done in a long time.
Comments
I like it. All in favor of dubbing these demerit packs say I!
Aye
You're on the right track. I like these targeted packs but why are you complicating things?
Why wasn't this the exact same pool of Romulans as the guarantee but otherwise a regular pack? Price it the same as a premium portal pack and depending on the theme, I think you'll get lot's of interest.
I would certainly like the idea of a Borg pack where unlike a premium portal I'm guaranteed one of (currently) ~650 purple or golds, I'm guaranteed one of purple or gold Borg.
Objectively, this is basically 27.5k dil on average for the new gold, compared to 1/18k in a normal 10 pack. Which while pretty bad, isn't as bad as the Chef RIker cost was last year. The honor returns for this pack, while not up to a normal 10 pack, are in line with the 10 card 6500 pack pulls in a normal week.
One other comment I have is that not having the 6500/5500 pulls also runs the risk of people having to pull 100+ times for the gold. And note to the developers, going 0 for 5-10 on a 5500/6500 pull is a lot less mentally jarring than 0 for 50/100 on a 550/650 pull. And creating a memorable experience out of bad luck, is not something you want to be doing.
For all I know, this pack will wind up with decent sales because a few of us collectors spent more dil than usual. I'm sure the metrics will look nice until a few months from now when 10%+ of the people who pulled significantly on this pack wind up quiting the game or not spending any more.
I hope other collectors evened the odds, so the metric will still show a worse result.
Aye!
Aye
I don't believe these packs lend themselves well to the way they are being used. A limited pull number would go over better if the "feature" wasn't made so much harder to get. The field is too big. They look like a way to drain dilithium faster than a 10 pack and give less back.
Slot one. Drop the honor and ration idea. It's filler, you know it and we know it.
Slot two. No one is going to pay dilithium for 1*, 2*, or 3* crew. Unless they are uber-gratification oriented, we know the cards will get to portal and those drop in the first 6 hours of a voyage. Again, the pay out is filler and we all know it. Unless you are certain to get it and it's new, no one will spend dilithium for < 3* crew.
Slot three. You have reduced the chance to get a specific SR or Gold considerablely. And because the other two are filler you only have a single shot at it. (10/650 vs 1/500). The feature card's odds may seem better but 1% ten times from a field of 3, versus 10% one time from a field the size of a collection. By simple math you have reduced the pay out to a single slot. So at a ratio of 10:650, the price for this pack should scale to 65 dilithium for that slot. For three slots the price should be no higher than 200 dilithium.
This may be super rude, but I'm going to get super arrogant and simply state, you are using this concept wrong.
This pack concept needs to be used for times when you want to drop something new that isn't crew or the feature crew is from a narrow field or simply certain.
For example, if you were launching the Artifact. Cut the price to 360. Slot1 (a field of SR or Gold romulan ships. Slot2 300 Artifact. Slot3 a bonus of Romulan crew, from the Collection, of SR>. The feature should be easier to get.
Example2. When you are offer a limited quantity buy. A new Gold with random garnish. Or a random chance at three new crew, but only a single shot.
When the feature is crew. Offering < 3* crew as a feature for Dilithium is only going to work if the odds are certain or very narrow. If the feature is SR> the field can't be higher than a BePurple or a BeGold. In a 10x people pay 65/slot. If you are going to raise the price per slot the payout will be expected to be better. No one buys a lottery ticket at double the price unless the odds look better or the prize is bigger. You are essentially offering the same "SR> guarantee" for a single slot that people expect from a 10x. But you shrunk the extra payout from 9 to 2.
These packs aren't good for featured golds. They may be ok for featured new SR cards as long as the payout is more certain. They can work as a draw to spend on new schematics with a bonus. But they will not work for as is for anything more than 100 dilithium/slot. It's basic math.
Aye!!!!!
And someone actually suggested that they make the price higher than a Merit Pull? 1000 Merits would be a step back in the wrong direction. Yeah, this "Pack" guarantees one SuperRare. However, with the regular 725 Merit Pull, there is the statistically slim, but still possible chance, of pulling more than one SuperRare or even Legendary. Limited to one, and only one SuperRare or Legendary? I would suggest 250 Merits a Pull. {A little over 1/3 the cost of a regular Merit Pull.} For Dilithiums, 1/10 of the possible SuperRare or Legendary Drops, in a regular Ten Pull? And two guaranteed Whammies? Perhaps 70-75 Dilithiums.
For posts of examples of great Merit Pulls, check out the Merit Pull thread:
https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/12388/klytus-im-booooooored/p1
This weeks is one drop guaranteed to be either a superrare at 90% odds or a legendary at 10%. At a cost of 550 dil. However, the new crew of a legendary is in a group of 5 total. When compared to the normal x10 pack for Tuesday, it is not worth it.
So most certainly improvements were made making it about 6 times better than a merit pull. A comparable cost in merits might be 4500 merits. (Edit: 1.62% is the odds of a legendary crew dropping in a merit pull) Edit2: @mejoyh my calculation is the average number of legendaries you will get from a merit pull. The odds of getting one or more legendaries in a merit pull is 1.61%
I was not going to agree with calling this a demerit pack. However, when I compare it to the standard Tuesday new crew pack offers, it is less value for the dil. paid, so it does become meritless.
So I guess that is a Demerit pack @eXo | SilverRose
If the featured collection was a smaller group, such as wild west, holoprogram enthusiasts, set sail etc.
And then ONLY if mini events were to become regular occurrences, like once or twice a month, and remained free to play.
Unless I had just participated in a mini event and had dilithium to burn, I would not buy this type of pack. Too little potential for my precious dilithium.
I think this pack is miles better than the diplomat deluge in 2 ways.
1) Its cheaper (by 100 dil)
2) It guarantees a purple which at least starts to match the guarantee of a normal 650 dil pack
On the other hand, you are definitely getting less 'pulls' but I wanted to do some analysis. This is predicated on the basis that you are opening packs for the 5* card and all those 4* and under are just honor for you.
The new pack format has a 5* drop rate of 10% vs a drop rate of 1.27% on a normal 10 pack. So if your main goal was to get 5* cards, does the increased drop rate make up for the less cards? (CAVEAT! Its been a long time since my stats classes so if there are any math whizzes out there pls feel free to correct)
Ill calculate the chance of a 5* in a pack by looking at the probability of NOT getting a gold
New pack format - Chance of no gold = 90% => Chance of gold = 10% (pretty straight forward, what it says on the tin)
Standard pack format - Chance of no gold = (98.73%)^10 = 88% => Chance of gold = 12%
So if you compare it against the 490 dil pack, this the new pack format is worse off in many ways
1) Lower chance to get a gold (per pack)
2) Lower Honor return (from airlocking 4* and below)
3) Replicator Rations vs Ship Schematics
4) More expensive
The only thing going for the new packs is that the pool is smaller than a normal pack so if you are specifically short on Romulans, then this might be a marginal benefit? And if you really wanted Narek, then this is the pack for you!
All in all this is still a terrible idea and its priced way too high. Some suggestions to improve
1) Dropping the price - I feel like something in the 320-350 dil range would be more digestible
2) For 1st card slot - Swap out replicators for 4* (80%) or 5* (20%) ship schematics
3) For 2nd card slot - Just get rid of 1* and 2* cards and add in chance to roll 4* and 5* cards (maybe 3*-80%, 4*-15%, 5*-5%)
This would still result in a lower honor return per pack but the cheaper price and increased chance of a 5* would make it more appealing.
The 490 Pack is a much better deal. Ten Slots, and the chance of the featured Legendary is 1/3. {33.3% repeating.}
90% chance of SR crew from featured collection
6% chance of legendary crew from featured collection
4% chance of featured legendary
Then there is the price point. I'm a little torn here. I tend to do recap packs because the dilithium to honor conversion is the most favorable. These collection packs are nearly devoid of honor by comparison. Would the improved odds make up for getting less honor? Not in my mind. I may not be the target market, though.
I tried playing with a few scenarios in my mind. It keeps coming back to honor. I think the best way to sell more Tuesday packs is to load in some honor. Recap packs are kind of the gold standard. They are the gold standard for dilithium to honor. The options I see are to load about 2 honor per 1 dilithium or improve the odds of getting the desired crew enough to justify spending the dilithium.
Oh, and I do want to mention that Paladin made a great point about player experience. Well said.
The premium portal pull statistics given are for one pull.
So for x10 pack it is a 12.7% chance of getting a legendary. You did seem to calculate this any how. But it is just 10 times the single chance. I realize though your calculation should be right you are calculating what the odds of not getting a legendary in a x10 pack you are correct. Where as my calculation 'edit: does not include' the chance of getting more legendaries then one in a x10 pack.
I posted above that I think the solution is just to increase the legendary drop rate to 20%. I think that would be an adequate solution. Because I was thinking of that making up for honor and schematics (I think a lot of us still need some of the newer ship schematics) I was not thinking of the diluted drop of newer crew. But it seems adequate for that too.
Edit clarification: my odds are the average number of legendaries you will get for a x10 pack. mejoyh is the odds of an x10 pack containing one or more legendaries.
Aye
If these dropped a behold I'd be more interested. The risk of a useless card is just too high otherwise.
Granted, I'm not interested in Romulans, which is fine. I'm not, others are. But considering this for a collection I haven't completed, like my 6/10 Borg . . . I still wouldn't risk it without a behold. But if it had one, I could see grabbing a few of these.
Starport
Pulled on it twice knowing full well I would get hosed. Sure enough, all junk. Will likely avoid these packs in the future.
At least I was told this time (in the fine print) that it is a crappy pack. So I knew what I was getting. Low Bar.
1) it offers a lower chance to get the crew you want if compared to a normal Tuesday pack,
2) it offers less honor as a consolation prize.
Both those things would have to change, or at least one of them would have to change significantly, to make them worth considering.
But Tuesday packs and packs in general are already frustrating to long-time players, because most of the time they only drop a little bit of honor and nothing else of use.
What people here seem to like the most are campaigns, mega recap packs and the honor pulls for Convergence Day.
The things they include(d) are: citations, a certainty of a specific crew, a good chance of a specific crew, (a chance of) more stars on a specific crew, decent amounts of honor, begolds. A decent amount of specific 5* ship schematics wouldn't be bad either.
Generally speaking, a pack that gives us more of what we want and need instead of less would be great. And even if the price was higher than I'm willing to pay, someone else here would be happy about it. The current format is just giving us less than what we're used to.
Except Romulans in this game are terrible, the new card is a legendary in a watered down pool, it's still only three drops with mostly trash offerings in addition to trash cards, and the price is too damn high. This is two steps back.
Seeing this "<snip>~Shan" type of offer return is a serous erosion of trust in the new ownership.
And yet, people are still buying. 🤦
If Picard and Disco are considered by some to be "dark", this aĉa fripono must be akin to the dark of a black hole.
If I ever start an indie band, we are definitely calling ourselves Watered Down Pool. At minimum, our first album will be called that.
For the best possible rewards, this price represents an acceptable value.
Given the gamble involved, I wouldn't go near it and nor would I advise my fleet to.
For 650, you either get a 10x, or a special behold (Elusive Treasures), for a 100 dil less you get something akin to a merit pull.
I could see this being useful if the 4* or greater was a behold, but pure RNG? No.
As Dennis Miller said, "Hey folks, two of **tsk tsk** is still **tsk tsk**."
Tier 1 = 1 pull based on merits which gives you one Super rare behold for the SR cards in the featured pack along with 3/4 star trainers and rations/ 3 star crew. Cost....around 1000 merits (as the merit pull is currently 725)
Tier 2 = 1 pull based on dilthium which gives you one Legendary behold for the cards in the featured pack on offer plus 4/5 star trainers and rations. Cost...around 1000 dilithium (as a premium pull is currently 650)
So either as I suggested the chance of a legendary drop should be increased to 20% or the cost in dil. needs to be lowered to make it less similar to an x10 pull.
I would say if they just wanted to lower dil. then something like 350 might be the better choice. And, they may have to work on x10 version that drops a guaranteed legendary.
If you guys are going to pull this sort of stunt, then make it obvious what we are getting.
The Picard pack was at least clear that we'd get shafted by both the price and the odds.
This one is worse because...
- Poor and unclear grammar (what is 'Get a The Romulan'?).
- Poor interface (an 'i' icon the size of a pebble... I look at that for ODDS not content).
- It uses misleading and similar art style as the Mega Event Recap packs or the Elusive Treasures packs (a pointless collage).
- It's advertised using the same space as a weekly or special offer, but wasting all the space that could be used to explain the pack (which is done on Fenris Seven, EV Nahn, all those shuttle boost packs, the above mentioned Recap or ET packs, etc.).
The Picard Diplomacy pack was SPECIFIC and CLEAR on what you get, which is why I purchased that item even with the terrible odds and return (what flaming bag of shiitakes).
This pack is unclear and the worst hogwash you guys have done in a long time.