Wow, that is harsh. I just was able to stay on 4K this event so far, but never had a clean run.
If you are still in the 4k range this not clean run thingie is a luxury "problem" really, don´t you think? As you can imagine many would be happy to reach that point range at all. So occasional failures aside you are doing well...
Seems we get one of these threads every time a faction event takes place. I've definitely had extended streaks of bad luck in the past, but nothing like that this weekend (knock wood). And that's all I think it is, just bad luck.
During this new event with Spiderman Barclay, I have meowticed that my very well stocked shuttles (all with 2x or 3x Legendary or Super-Rare 3x Event Bonus Crew), all in the 96-99% range, fail very often, and not only in one run, but in every run since event start.
Have your shuttles also failed ridiculously often above 95% during this event, as in 50%-75% only coming through and not a single 100% run of four shuttles?
Ever since I started playing I had this issue. I mostly have a -20% return rate than the one stated by DB. The RiggedNumberGenerator is just one of the many problems cause by DB's greed or incompetence.
Seems we get one of these threads every time a faction event takes place. I've definitely had extended streaks of bad luck in the past, but nothing like that this weekend (knock wood). And that's all I think it is, just bad luck.
Maybe because there is an actual problem?
I don't think there's an actual problem, just the RNG doing tricks on you. In the current event, I had a few 95%+ shuttles fail for me in the first day of the event as well, but in the end, it's not that big of a deal. My observations are that everything evens out in the end - if you, like me like to play with shuttles between 75-85% chance to succeed, it evens out at 3/4 successes in the end. If you play between 66-75%, it evens out at around 2.5/4 successes, which, if you play dilligently (and maybe if the event doesn't have over 100 crew providing bonuses), is enough to put you in top 1000. I consider anything above 85% to be a godsend, as it usually evens out at 3.5/4 successes, which guarantees you a top 1000 spot.
Unless you are really going for the top 75 (which in my opinion you should never ever do), I do not see how that would hugely affect your standings. Anything from 76-1000 is a good deal, because there is very little difference in the rewards: you just get a few less blue portal pulls. Big deal.
Seems we get one of these threads every time a faction event takes place. I've definitely had extended streaks of bad luck in the past, but nothing like that this weekend (knock wood). And that's all I think it is, just bad luck.
Maybe because there is an actual problem?
I don't think there's an actual problem, just the RNG doing tricks on you. In the current event, I had a few 95%+ shuttles fail for me in the first day of the event as well, but in the end, it's not that big of a deal. My observations are that everything evens out in the end - if you, like me like to play with shuttles between 75-85% chance to succeed, it evens out at 3/4 successes in the end. If you play between 66-75%, it evens out at around 2.5/4 successes, which, if you play dilligently (and maybe if the event doesn't have over 100 crew providing bonuses), is enough to put you in top 1000. I consider anything above 85% to be a godsend, as it usually evens out at 3.5/4 successes, which guarantees you a top 1000 spot.
Unless you are really going for the top 75 (which in my opinion you should never ever do), I do not see how that would hugely affect your standings. Anything from 76-1000 is a good deal, because there is very little difference in the rewards: you just get a few less blue portal pulls. Big deal.
When what they claim contradicts the results, it is a problem. I wouldn't mind seeing lower but accurate percentages...But when you say 95%...then it should be 95% give or take 5%, not -20%.
Seems we get one of these threads every time a faction event takes place. I've definitely had extended streaks of bad luck in the past, but nothing like that this weekend (knock wood). And that's all I think it is, just bad luck.
Maybe because there is an actual problem?
I don't think there's an actual problem, just the RNG doing tricks on you. In the current event, I had a few 95%+ shuttles fail for me in the first day of the event as well, but in the end, it's not that big of a deal. My observations are that everything evens out in the end - if you, like me like to play with shuttles between 75-85% chance to succeed, it evens out at 3/4 successes in the end. If you play between 66-75%, it evens out at around 2.5/4 successes, which, if you play dilligently (and maybe if the event doesn't have over 100 crew providing bonuses), is enough to put you in top 1000. I consider anything above 85% to be a godsend, as it usually evens out at 3.5/4 successes, which guarantees you a top 1000 spot.
Unless you are really going for the top 75 (which in my opinion you should never ever do), I do not see how that would hugely affect your standings. Anything from 76-1000 is a good deal, because there is very little difference in the rewards: you just get a few less blue portal pulls. Big deal.
When what they claim contradicts the results, it is a problem. I wouldn't mind seeing lower but accurate percentages...But when you say 95%...then it should be 95% give or take 5%, not -20%.
It's like that for some, and different for others. I was keeping tabs on my success rates between june 2017 and september 2017 and it showed acceptable variation. For example, I had 4 shuttle fails until now with all of my shuttles being at 88%+ on this event. Our fleet leader hasn't failed a single shuttle and he's in the top 50 now. It's all RNG and luck. I had events where my chances were between 75%-85% that ended with 3.2/4 success rate, which is more than decent. For the same token, I had events with the same % to finish with 2.8/4 success rate in other cases.
Sometimes you're lucky, sometimes you're not. I keep telling my fleet mates to just stop paying attention to the numbers, calm down, don't get disheartened by fails, and just play the game as it is intended to be played
I believe there is still a display problem when it comes to boosts and AND shuttles. In past events we've had others document and I verified that if you didn't have one of the skills and boosted that skill on a character in the slot, you'd still see the display percentage go up.
I've not retested that in a few events, but it was there for a long time. I think knowing that has helped me pick missions and boosts that have given a better representation of their actual chances.
During this new event with Spiderman Barclay, I have meowticed that my very well stocked shuttles (all with 2x or 3x Legendary or Super-Rare 3x Event Bonus Crew), all in the 96-99% range, fail very often, and not only in one run, but in every run since event start.
Have your shuttles also failed ridiculously often above 95% during this event, as in 50%-75% only coming through and not a single 100% run of four shuttles?
I only see "Borg Cube" of text. How about putting some purragraphs in? Would make this whole text a lot easier to Reed, as Malcolm would say. Thanks in advance. You know us Vorta ... bad eyes ... good ears!
I'll come back to this thread in a bit.
You put down Zann Calcore for lack of structure to his post on another topic yet you can't correctly spell NOTICED - meowticed, READ - Reed or PARAGRAPHS - purragraphs.
Guess Zann Calcore never had enough words spelled wrong for your reading and writing level!
During this new event with Spiderman Barclay, I have meowticed that my very well stocked shuttles (all with 2x or 3x Legendary or Super-Rare 3x Event Bonus Crew), all in the 96-99% range, fail very often, and not only in one run, but in every run since event start.
Have your shuttles also failed ridiculously often above 95% during this event, as in 50%-75% only coming through and not a single 100% run of four shuttles?
I only see "Borg Cube" of text. How about putting some purragraphs in? Would make this whole text a lot easier to Reed, as Malcolm would say. Thanks in advance. You know us Vorta ... bad eyes ... good ears!
I'll come back to this thread in a bit.
You put down Zann Calcore for lack of structure to his post on another topic yet you can't correctly spell NOTICED - meowticed, READ - Reed or PARAGRAPHS - purragraphs. LOL
Umm, she's in a bit of a cat character. Hang around the forums long enough to have a real name and you might pick up on that.
That being said if our favorite furry Vorta thinks that THAT was a wall of text, she might need a catnap....
24 shuttles launched with a chance of success between 88 and 92%.
6 failures.
At this point for me it's 75% of success.
Sounds like my boosts don't work?
Seems we get one of these threads every time a faction event takes place. I've definitely had extended streaks of bad luck in the past, but nothing like that this weekend (knock wood). And that's all I think it is, just bad luck.
Maybe because there is an actual problem?
I don't think there's an actual problem, just the RNG doing tricks on you. In the current event, I had a few 95%+ shuttles fail for me in the first day of the event as well, but in the end, it's not that big of a deal. My observations are that everything evens out in the end - if you, like me like to play with shuttles between 75-85% chance to succeed, it evens out at 3/4 successes in the end. If you play between 66-75%, it evens out at around 2.5/4 successes, which, if you play dilligently (and maybe if the event doesn't have over 100 crew providing bonuses), is enough to put you in top 1000. I consider anything above 85% to be a godsend, as it usually evens out at 3.5/4 successes, which guarantees you a top 1000 spot.
Unless you are really going for the top 75 (which in my opinion you should never ever do), I do not see how that would hugely affect your standings. Anything from 76-1000 is a good deal, because there is very little difference in the rewards: you just get a few less blue portal pulls. Big deal.
When what they claim contradicts the results, it is a problem. I wouldn't mind seeing lower but accurate percentages...But when you say 95%...then it should be 95% give or take 5%, not -20%.
It's like that for some, and different for others. I was keeping tabs on my success rates between june 2017 and september 2017 and it showed acceptable variation. For example, I had 4 shuttle fails until now with all of my shuttles being at 88%+ on this event. Our fleet leader hasn't failed a single shuttle and he's in the top 50 now. It's all RNG and luck. I had events where my chances were between 75%-85% that ended with 3.2/4 success rate, which is more than decent. For the same token, I had events with the same % to finish with 2.8/4 success rate in other cases.
Sometimes you're lucky, sometimes you're not. I keep telling my fleet mates to just stop paying attention to the numbers, calm down, don't get disheartened by fails, and just play the game as it is intended to be played
You can "blame" luck in the real world, where you can't control random factors. Here, the RNG is following parameters coded by programmers. It can't go outside its programming. So "luck" has no business here. The outcome is the intended outcome. If the RNG is wonkie, it is because they designed it this way.
So what is the formula on AND slots? I generally ignore the secondary (unless I happen to be able to fill it) and go with the primary. Wonky RNG appears more likely on my fourth shuttle, which invariably has leftover crew unless I can balance them well, which is riskier I think than getting a likely 75% success rate. I do notice RNG seems to have runs of either good 'luck' or bad. At the moment I'm having terrible luck in the gauntlet but better on shuttles. But I've actually had a 99/99/97 % set of shuttles fail in the past. It feels totally random at times.
The only thing I can recommend is to switch factions for a while. That might fix any 'sticky' RNG.
So flip flopping between fed and bajor faction out of 20 runs at 4k or 3.5 k with average of 97%,87%,87%,79% running 5/5 fe barclay, a 3/5 barclay @80, aand both event purples at 5/5 fe and all the rest 2nd tier event crew purple and golds at 5/5 fe with 3* reducers
I suspect you might be offended. You did not sign your message with "Scott".
But hey, seriously, part of the resentment that the community has against DB is based on things like this - things that are objectively false. People misunderstanding the way the game works, and then accusing DB of having implemented - to use your term - "stupid" dynamics.
I just think it's a sad thing, honestly. There are so many things that we can and must criticize about the game, starting with the monetization and disincentivizing collection model. With these many things that we can and must criticize, it's sad to see effort going into fixing a "stupid dynamics" that doesn't exist.
I believe there is still a display problem when it comes to boosts and AND shuttles. In past events we've had others document and I verified that if you didn't have one of the skills and boosted that skill on a character in the slot, you'd still see the display percentage go up.
I've not retested that in a few events, but it was there for a long time. I think knowing that has helped me pick missions and boosts that have given a better representation of their actual chances.
Hope this helps.
I believe this as well, so whenever feasible, I match both skills in AND slots. I know all I have is anecdotal evidence, but I don't experience the wide variance from displayed success chance that others do.
There may be other factors as well. I'm sure there are some issues with the displayed percentage that manifest in certain situations. There's just too many disparate reports for me to believe it's normal variance.
To my knowledge, the 95% doesn’t apply just to you. It applies to all shuttles.
It means for every 100 shuttles, 5 will fail. If there are 10,000 players and each sends 2 shuttles at 95% (for a total of 20,000 shuttles), at least 1,000 shuttles will fail.
The number goes up higher when you consider some players have 3 or 4 shuttles and the player base is higher.
There has been times where I had 3 fails for an entire event, and other times where I had a lot of fails. It happen sometimes. But the overall % for shuttle success for all players is correct I believe
I have posted various event data also. Generally your actual success is about 5-10 points lower than what is shown. If you just look at the 236 shuttles above 90 percent, 32 failed. Meaning the average shown for him was 94 percent to an actual of 86.
That supports what I have seen. I even showed when one event was pretty much equal to shown but that was my first time seeing that. When you have a ton of bonus crew, I have been told that the display is off due to rounding errors. Like it rounds the base percentage, then the extra bonus is rounded for each crew. It sorta makes sense but who knows. I believe this is called a feature not a bug lol.
All the complaints I've put out before, and yet last night I sent out 3 shuttles with a double boost and only decent odds on 2 and half on 1 and they all succeeded. Then this morning I sent out 3 at about half odds and they all passed. It is all just weird odds.
I have noticed a significantly higher rate of failed missions during this event as well, to the point that it feels like more than simple bad luck.
Through a 12-hour stretch last evening and overnight, I went 2/4, 2/4, 3/4 and 2/4 on 4k shuttles, all of which had a posted success rate between 86%-89% (9/16 is an actual success rate of just 56%).
One out of ten 90% shuttles should fail over the long haul. Keep track of your displayed percentages and success rates throughout the event and see if it doesn't average out after the event is over.
DB really should just "dumb it down" and display a percentage that is 10% lower than the calculated one. Or just go with a progress bar with a gap at the end. There really isn't a necessary reason to show a shuttle has a 99% success prediction.
Folks will still complain about their short-term results, cause that's what folks do, but there'll be fewer of them.
Personally, since everyone is affected evenly by this and a mission with 98% still is better than 95%, it's a non-issue for me. Tho, I would love to see some simulations from DB showing proof of the RNG.
Yeah, RNGesus is really hating on me this event. My shuttles have all been in the 95-97% range and I've failed 7 of them since the event started. Just using 95% (19/20 successes) having 7 failures means I should have had 133 successes so far in the event LOL
Comments
If you are still in the 4k range this not clean run thingie is a luxury "problem" really, don´t you think? As you can imagine many would be happy to reach that point range at all. So occasional failures aside you are doing well...
Maybe because there is an actual problem?
Ever since I started playing I had this issue. I mostly have a -20% return rate than the one stated by DB. The RiggedNumberGenerator is just one of the many problems cause by DB's greed or incompetence.
I don't think there's an actual problem, just the RNG doing tricks on you. In the current event, I had a few 95%+ shuttles fail for me in the first day of the event as well, but in the end, it's not that big of a deal. My observations are that everything evens out in the end - if you, like me like to play with shuttles between 75-85% chance to succeed, it evens out at 3/4 successes in the end. If you play between 66-75%, it evens out at around 2.5/4 successes, which, if you play dilligently (and maybe if the event doesn't have over 100 crew providing bonuses), is enough to put you in top 1000. I consider anything above 85% to be a godsend, as it usually evens out at 3.5/4 successes, which guarantees you a top 1000 spot.
Unless you are really going for the top 75 (which in my opinion you should never ever do), I do not see how that would hugely affect your standings. Anything from 76-1000 is a good deal, because there is very little difference in the rewards: you just get a few less blue portal pulls. Big deal.
Please merge this duplicate into the already-existing-on-the-first-page thread: https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/3121/shuttle-mission-failure-rate-increase#latest
When what they claim contradicts the results, it is a problem. I wouldn't mind seeing lower but accurate percentages...But when you say 95%...then it should be 95% give or take 5%, not -20%.
It's like that for some, and different for others. I was keeping tabs on my success rates between june 2017 and september 2017 and it showed acceptable variation. For example, I had 4 shuttle fails until now with all of my shuttles being at 88%+ on this event. Our fleet leader hasn't failed a single shuttle and he's in the top 50 now. It's all RNG and luck. I had events where my chances were between 75%-85% that ended with 3.2/4 success rate, which is more than decent. For the same token, I had events with the same % to finish with 2.8/4 success rate in other cases.
Sometimes you're lucky, sometimes you're not. I keep telling my fleet mates to just stop paying attention to the numbers, calm down, don't get disheartened by fails, and just play the game as it is intended to be played
I've not retested that in a few events, but it was there for a long time. I think knowing that has helped me pick missions and boosts that have given a better representation of their actual chances.
Hope this helps.
You put down Zann Calcore for lack of structure to his post on another topic yet you can't correctly spell NOTICED - meowticed, READ - Reed or PARAGRAPHS - purragraphs.
Guess Zann Calcore never had enough words spelled wrong for your reading and writing level!
Umm, she's in a bit of a cat character. Hang around the forums long enough to have a real name and you might pick up on that.
That being said if our favorite furry Vorta thinks that THAT was a wall of text, she might need a catnap....
6 failures.
At this point for me it's 75% of success.
Sounds like my boosts don't work?
You can "blame" luck in the real world, where you can't control random factors. Here, the RNG is following parameters coded by programmers. It can't go outside its programming. So "luck" has no business here. The outcome is the intended outcome. If the RNG is wonkie, it is because they designed it this way.
Have a nice day.
Second Star to the Right - Join Today!
The only thing I can recommend is to switch factions for a while. That might fix any 'sticky' RNG.
Check out our website to find out more:
https://wiki.tenforwardloungers.com/
Im going 10/20 so 50% winrate
You get a bonus on the second skill if you use it. You get 25% of the lower skill.
******
I've failed exactly one shuttle this entire event. Doing better success wise than last week. RNG is RNG.
I suspect you might be offended. You did not sign your message with "Scott".
But hey, seriously, part of the resentment that the community has against DB is based on things like this - things that are objectively false. People misunderstanding the way the game works, and then accusing DB of having implemented - to use your term - "stupid" dynamics.
I just think it's a sad thing, honestly. There are so many things that we can and must criticize about the game, starting with the monetization and disincentivizing collection model. With these many things that we can and must criticize, it's sad to see effort going into fixing a "stupid dynamics" that doesn't exist.
I believe this as well, so whenever feasible, I match both skills in AND slots. I know all I have is anecdotal evidence, but I don't experience the wide variance from displayed success chance that others do.
There may be other factors as well. I'm sure there are some issues with the displayed percentage that manifest in certain situations. There's just too many disparate reports for me to believe it's normal variance.
It means for every 100 shuttles, 5 will fail. If there are 10,000 players and each sends 2 shuttles at 95% (for a total of 20,000 shuttles), at least 1,000 shuttles will fail.
The number goes up higher when you consider some players have 3 or 4 shuttles and the player base is higher.
There has been times where I had 3 fails for an entire event, and other times where I had a lot of fails. It happen sometimes. But the overall % for shuttle success for all players is correct I believe
lol
Second Star to the Right - Join Today!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h3wLNzSDOiu-OIIUhP9OlaKPqRH2YKT83BOPHpFxFCg
Is from this link:
https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/1713/shuttle-mission-success-chances-during-events-post-your-data-here#latest
I have posted various event data also. Generally your actual success is about 5-10 points lower than what is shown. If you just look at the 236 shuttles above 90 percent, 32 failed. Meaning the average shown for him was 94 percent to an actual of 86.
That supports what I have seen. I even showed when one event was pretty much equal to shown but that was my first time seeing that. When you have a ton of bonus crew, I have been told that the display is off due to rounding errors. Like it rounds the base percentage, then the extra bonus is rounded for each crew. It sorta makes sense but who knows. I believe this is called a feature not a bug lol.
Through a 12-hour stretch last evening and overnight, I went 2/4, 2/4, 3/4 and 2/4 on 4k shuttles, all of which had a posted success rate between 86%-89% (9/16 is an actual success rate of just 56%).
Folks will still complain about their short-term results, cause that's what folks do, but there'll be fewer of them.
Personally, since everyone is affected evenly by this and a mission with 98% still is better than 95%, it's a non-issue for me. Tho, I would love to see some simulations from DB showing proof of the RNG.
Edit: Well, up to 10 failures now