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95%+ Shuttles Failing Way Too Often

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  • 3/4 shuttle returns at 90% being the lowest percentage. This is why my money migrated from STT to SWGOH.

    BEST. IDEA. EVER!
  • [BL] Q [BL] Q ✭✭✭✭✭
    3/4 shuttle returns at 90% being the lowest percentage. This is why my money migrated from STT to SWGOH.

    BEST. IDEA. EVER!

    Just wait till your level 70+ account gets lost on EA's server. I put over €1200 on SWGOH they lost my account i couldn't log in yet my allies could still use my heroes. EA compensated my loss of €1200 with €1.99 in ingame currency to start over.
  • This usually happens to me at much beyond 2250 VP shuttles, I'm lucky if I get 2/4 success on any one run, usually it's 1/4. But strangely on this event my luck appears to have flipped. I had one 1/4 run, but literally every other one has been 3/4 or occasionally 4/4. And that's at a consistent 4k VP with between 70% and 85% chance on each shuttle. I haven't a clue how I'm doing it, but I hope it holds.
    Level 99. Latest Immortal (957): Chancellor Gowron - October 2023.
  • ~peregrine~~peregrine~ ✭✭✭✭✭
    I sent out 4 Federation shuttles overnight with 2X time boosters, all above 75% predicted success, and 3 failed. Last week, I did the same thing (once) with Maquis shuttles below 70%, and all 4 succeeded. So my mileage varies, which I attribute to RNGesus, and I don’t worry about it too much. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

    “Success is the ability to go
    from one failure to another
    with no loss of enthusiasm.”
    – Winston Churchill
    "In the short run, the game defines the players. But in the long run, it's us players who define the game." — Nicky Case, The Evolution of Trust
  • 150k vp and I had 0 rounds where I passed all 4. 3 rounds where I only passed 2. 85 percent was my lowest shuttle %. Seems awful but it might just be me. At least we get 800 on the mass of losses
  • DScottHewittDScottHewitt ✭✭✭✭✭
    as you work better with someone, your efficiency goes DOWN. The fact that they implemented it that way

    Just for the sake of trying, I will repeat it once more.

    THEY.

    DID.

    NOT.

    IMPLEMENT.

    IT.


    That is because:

    1) There is no necessary correlation between shuttle difficulty and faction honor.
    2) Correlation does not imply causation.

    ... yeah, why am I even trying.

    Yeah.

    HAVE

    A

    NICE

    DAY
    "The truth is like a lion; you don't have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself."
  • DavideBooksDavideBooks ✭✭✭✭✭
    My VP level is at 4000 level right now and it hasn't been dropping with my failures. I'm happy with that, on the one hand, but shouldn't it be dropping since I can't get above 60% probability without boosts (and often even with boosts).

    After several initial failures at high percentages, I've settled into failing about half the time.
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My VP level is at 4000 level right now and it hasn't been dropping with my failures. I'm happy with that, on the one hand, but shouldn't it be dropping since I can't get above 60% probability without boosts (and often even with boosts).

    After several initial failures at high percentages, I've settled into failing about half the time.

    I believe it’s a point system. Each success is a point. A failure Is -1.5. As long as you are at 40 or better you stay at 4000

  • ~peregrine~~peregrine~ ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2018
    My VP level is at 4000 level right now and it hasn't been dropping with my failures. I'm happy with that, on the one hand, but shouldn't it be dropping since I can't get above 60% probability without boosts (and often even with boosts).

    After several initial failures at high percentages, I've settled into failing about half the time.

    I believe it’s a point system. Each success is a point. A failure Is -1.5. As long as you are at 40 or better you stay at 4000

    That is correct, according to the Wiki:

    https://stt.wiki/wiki/Events#Faction_Event
    "In the short run, the game defines the players. But in the long run, it's us players who define the game." — Nicky Case, The Evolution of Trust
  • [BL] Q wrote: »
    3/4 shuttle returns at 90% being the lowest percentage. This is why my money migrated from STT to SWGOH.

    BEST. IDEA. EVER!

    Just wait till your level 70+ account gets lost on EA's server. I put over €1200 on SWGOH they lost my account i couldn't log in yet my allies could still use my heroes. EA compensated my loss of €1200 with €1.99 in ingame currency to start over.

    Ouch! Sorry about that.
  • kapukapu ✭✭✭
    edited January 2018
    Mbannar wrote: »
    Ok sent a email and got this response , after email if im reading right

    1.Faction mission are graded on a server cruve not a individual curve

    So a guy can run 4k 4/4 @5% and if gets really luckyand gets all four , then some where else on server someone running 4k 4/4 @ 95% would fail all his 

    That was not implied, you're misunderstanding the response... There is no causal link between one guy failing and the other succeeding, it's all statistics and maths. With simple rng and big enough playerbase there will be some really unexpected results for few players, both good and bad. Some other guy jokingly said earlier something about shuttles being in bell curve, but that is indeed the case for the 'sum total' when looking at invidual players and all of their shuttles over the course of the event (or any period of time really).

    RNG is not meant to make things or treat people equal or even. (im sure theres a better word for it somewhere but my english aint that good.) RNG is meant to make things random (well du'h), in doing so it will also treat people 'unfairly' because it doesnt know what's happened to them in the past. Because of this the end result is indeed a bell curve, some poor sods get the short stick while some others win the jackpot. However most people will sit somewhere in the middle and get the results they were expecting to get, more or less.

    And lucky people don't complain in the forums.

    edit slightly of topic but rng related:
    Back in uni one of the math professors told us a funny tidbit about 'cheating' with homeworks. I believe it was the first course into statistics and probabilities, one of them had people throwing dice for very many times and then doing some analysis on the results. Well as you'd guess some people didn't really feel like throwing dice so they made up the numbers. The prof told us it was quite easy to tell who faked the results because they were too evenly spread.
    Captain Lvl 99; Vip0; 552 Unique Immortals; Fleet: Omega Molecules; Base Lvl 134 (MAX); Playing Since March 2016.
  • Peachtree RexPeachtree Rex ✭✭✭✭✭
    @kapu I believe the word you're looking for is "fair".
  • kapukapu ✭✭✭
    @kapu I believe the word you're looking for is "fair".

    well it is fair in the sense that the mechanics are the same for everyone, only the end result varies (which makes it random).
    Captain Lvl 99; Vip0; 552 Unique Immortals; Fleet: Omega Molecules; Base Lvl 134 (MAX); Playing Since March 2016.
  • I haven't had a shuttle go out under 90% this event. I getting about a 50% fail rate right now.
    Drunken Dahar Masters is recruiting active players.
    PM for details.

    So long and thanks for all the fish.
  • JhamelJhamel ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just had another 2/4 with 96-99% all shuttles, none below 96% ... ridi-Q-lous!
    "Everything about the Jem'Hadar is lethal!" - Eris (ST-DS9 Episode 2x26 "The Jem'Hadar")
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2018
    Someone is succeeding cuz I’m averaging three out of four successes with 1:30 boosts on every mission from the start. I haven’t been below 4000 since I got there yet I’m not climbing the ranks. Staying steadily around 40th since the beginning
  • Data1001Data1001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Someone is succeeding cuz I’m averaging three out of four successes with 1:30 boosts on every mission from the start. I haven’t been below 4000 since I got there yet I’m not climbing the ranks. Staying steadily around 40th since the beginning

    I stopped using speed-up boosts yesterday but have been getting at least 3/4 on each round of shuttles, yet I've been dropping like a rock. Thursday evening I was in the 100s, now I'm in the 1000s. As I suspected, with this many bonus crew, competition is really fierce.


    Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing.
    ~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Data1001 wrote: »
    Someone is succeeding cuz I’m averaging three out of four successes with 1:30 boosts on every mission from the start. I haven’t been below 4000 since I got there yet I’m not climbing the ranks. Staying steadily around 40th since the beginning

    I stopped using speed-up boosts yesterday but have been getting at least 3/4 on each round of shuttles, yet I've been dropping like a rock. Thursday evening I was in the 100s, now I'm in the 1000s. As I suspected, with this many bonus crew, competition is really fierce.

    The large amount of bonus crew is what got me to dip into my 400+ 1:30 boost stash. Figured I wouldn’t be sacrificing much percentage wise by putting time boosts on versus skill boosts

  • Data1001Data1001 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The large amount of bonus crew is what got me to dip into my 400+ 1:30 boost stash. Figured I wouldn’t be sacrificing much percentage wise by putting time boosts on versus skill boosts

    400+??? 😮

    hxRrLFx.gif


    Could you please continue the petty bickering? I find it most intriguing.
    ~ Data, ST:TNG "Haven"
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2018
    Data1001 wrote: »
    The large amount of bonus crew is what got me to dip into my 400+ 1:30 boost stash. Figured I wouldn’t be sacrificing much percentage wise by putting time boosts on versus skill boosts

    400+??? 😮

    hxRrLFx.gif

    Yeah. I buy 4 extra sets of tickets every Thursday and save my time boosts for event runs. You never know when I’m gonna show up at the top
  • kapu wrote: »
    @kapu I believe the word you're looking for is "fair".

    well it is fair in the sense that the mechanics are the same for everyone, only the end result varies (which makes it random).

    which makes YOU BELIEVE it's random.

    The simple fact that they're withholding the statistics for no reason besides "we don't wanna!" speaks volumes.

    If the end result varies, then the percentages are inaccurate.
  • Peachtree RexPeachtree Rex ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2018
    kapu wrote: »
    @kapu I believe the word you're looking for is "fair".

    well it is fair in the sense that the mechanics are the same for everyone, only the end result varies (which makes it random).

    which makes YOU BELIEVE it's random.

    The simple fact that they're withholding the statistics for no reason besides "we don't wanna!" speaks volumes.

    If the end result varies, then the percentages are inaccurate.

    I think it is a little disingenuous to say they are not releasing the info for "no reason". It would be a nontrivial effort for them to collect and distribute those statistics for each player that wanted it. I agree, it would be nice and would make it easier to prove or disprove the accuracy, but this company just had a significant RIF, I am unsurprised they would voluntarily compile and release that information.

    Similarly, I have never known any game that did release those sorts of numbers. Short of collecting it yourself, your best bet would be to request some in game view of said data (for example, the "results" screen at the end of a voyage).
  • [RO]BitterDevil[RO]BitterDevil ✭✭✭
    edited January 2018
    kapu wrote: »
    @kapu I believe the word you're looking for is "fair".

    well it is fair in the sense that the mechanics are the same for everyone, only the end result varies (which makes it random).

    which makes YOU BELIEVE it's random.

    The simple fact that they're withholding the statistics for no reason besides "we don't wanna!" speaks volumes.

    If the end result varies, then the percentages are inaccurate.

    I think it is a little disingenuous to say they are not releasing the info for "no reason". It would be a nontrivial effort for them to collect and distribute those statistics for each player that wanted it. I agree, it would be nice and would make it easier to prove or disprove the accuracy, but this company just had a significant RIF, I am unsurprised they would voluntarily compile and release that information.

    Similarly, I have never known any game that did release those sorts of numbers. Short of collecting it yourself, your best bet would be to request some in game view of said data (for example, the "results" screen at the end of a voyage).

    Post moderated, posting content of an exchange with PS is not allowed, neither is providing misleading information.˜Shan
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2018
    kapu wrote: »
    @kapu I believe the word you're looking for is "fair".

    well it is fair in the sense that the mechanics are the same for everyone, only the end result varies (which makes it random).

    which makes YOU BELIEVE it's random.

    The simple fact that they're withholding the statistics for no reason besides "we don't wanna!" speaks volumes.

    If the end result varies, then the percentages are inaccurate.

    I think it is a little disingenuous to say they are not releasing the info for "no reason". It would be a nontrivial effort for them to collect and distribute those statistics for each player that wanted it. I agree, it would be nice and would make it easier to prove or disprove the accuracy, but this company just had a significant RIF, I am unsurprised they would voluntarily compile and release that information.

    Similarly, I have never known any game that did release those sorts of numbers. Short of collecting it yourself, your best bet would be to request some in game view of said data (for example, the "results" screen at the end of a voyage).

    Post moderated, posting content of an exchange with PS is not allowed, neither is providing misleading information.˜Shan

    Expect this to be deleted once someone comes back from the weekend
  • Emmett KEmmett K ✭✭✭
    edited January 2018
    The normal shuttle difficulty shouldnt affect faction events. And most of the issues appear to stem from there. 270k VP and only 1 round that passed all 4. 4 rounds passed 2. Rest were all3. Running around 90 % at 4k.
  • ~peregrine~~peregrine~ ✭✭✭✭✭
    kapu wrote: »
    @kapu I believe the word you're looking for is "fair".

    well it is fair in the sense that the mechanics are the same for everyone, only the end result varies (which makes it random).

    which makes YOU BELIEVE it's random.

    The simple fact that they're withholding the statistics for no reason besides "we don't wanna!" speaks volumes.

    If the end result varies, then the percentages are inaccurate.

    I think it is a little disingenuous to say they are not releasing the info for "no reason". It would be a nontrivial effort for them to collect and distribute those statistics for each player that wanted it. I agree, it would be nice and would make it easier to prove or disprove the accuracy, but this company just had a significant RIF, I am unsurprised they would voluntarily compile and release that information.

    Similarly, I have never known any game that did release those sorts of numbers. Short of collecting it yourself, your best bet would be to request some in game view of said data (for example, the "results" screen at the end of a voyage).

    I am willing to believe that you do not know the situation. The statistics in question are actually already collected. This was aknowledged by a few CS workers but it is not supposed to be known to the general public.
    dorhbzrsx6jn.jpg
    those numbers represent successful missions minus failed ones.

    Expect this to be deleted once someone comes back from the weekend

    Screenshot! 😬
    "In the short run, the game defines the players. But in the long run, it's us players who define the game." — Nicky Case, The Evolution of Trust
  • kapukapu ✭✭✭
    If the end result varies, then the percentages are inaccurate.
    thats how RNG works ffs. didn't you understand anything i was explaining in the longer post??
    Captain Lvl 99; Vip0; 552 Unique Immortals; Fleet: Omega Molecules; Base Lvl 134 (MAX); Playing Since March 2016.
  • Peachtree RexPeachtree Rex ✭✭✭✭✭
    I never said they werent collected, only that it would be an onerous amout of work to send them on demand.
  • I never said they werent collected, only that it would be an onerous amout of work to send them on demand.

    No, it would be a copy-paste amount of work. And the idea that "you shouldn't ask for x cause it strains their work" is the same with what governments cry when asked for transparency. They are getting payed by us, they are not doing us any favors. They are claiming something, they should prove what they are claiming.
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