If the end result varies, then the percentages are inaccurate.
thats how RNG works ffs. didn't you understand anything i was explaining in the longer post??
I get it...so if the percentage says 80%, the outcome can vary? The why does it say 80%? Do you understand the difference between RNG and real life random? If not, let me clear that up for you:
Real outcome percentage prediction is based on the number of possible outcomes but it can't be controlled, thus, the results may vary.
RNG is a man made algorithm that is programmed for a certain outcome, thus, the results should not vary, otherwise the programming is flawed and the results can't be predicted.
In other words, do you think a company would allow their income to be determined by random chance?
Like, the percentages do seem off, and that is truly annoying. I have long since taken off 10% and felt better about my success rate.
However annoying it may be, though, this should be happening to everyone else right? Like, RNG might **tsk tsk** but it **tsk tsk** for everyone. The game wins.
But when it comes to events, they're still handing out the rewards. Someone's getting them. And they are subject to the same RNG as I am. Yeah, a good 1500 others tend to do better than me in factions, but that's not surprising since I have a six month old crew and I don't spend a vast fortune on the game.
At the end of the day, RNG **tsk tsk** for everyone some days, but not others. So long as we're all ground equally undo the RNGesus boot of pain, I don't care.
May I take the those three hugs from you? *giggles*
I actually decided to not score Top 1000 (for the first time in a pure Faction Event over half a year) to give one space to someone who actually needs Spiderman Barclay more. I got him immortal, and since RNG is kicking me badly in this event, all I'm doing is 3hr-pure shuttles and hoping for some sweet 0* case files, 0* holoprograms and 2* security codes. A few 2* red alerts and 2* covert contacts wouldn't hurt either.
"Everything about the Jem'Hadar is lethal!" - Eris (ST-DS9 Episode 2x26 "The Jem'Hadar")
I never said they werent collected, only that it would be an onerous amout of work to send them on demand.
No, it would be a copy-paste amount of work. And the idea that "you shouldn't ask for x cause it strains their work" is the same with what governments cry when asked for transparency. They are getting payed by us, they are not doing us any favors. They are claiming something, they should prove what they are claiming.
It's copy/paste for one person. But what about fifty? A thousand? That guy that requests it every single week? There gets to be a point where it IS a lot of work.
I never said you shouldn't request it. if they're willing to give it out, then go for it. It looks like they were willing to give it out at one point.
However, to say they have no reasonable reason to not distribute it is, like I said earlier, disingenuous at best. There is, at a minimum, one legitimate reason they would decline to do this: they have decided to spend their limited resources servicing other classes of tickets and decided these are less important.
Plus, given your general distrust of all things DB, why would you even trust any statistics they share with you? (Especially if it refuted your observations) The most likely way to actually get the information you seek in a way that you trust is if you collect it yourself.
@Peachtree Rex their incompetence is not my problem. Just because something like this MIGHT make them busy is not an argument against it.
This is not distrust, is common sense. It is not a matter of belief or disbelief, but an actual conclusion based on actual facts. They have lied time and time again. Their incompetence speaks volumes. So, I ask you, how can you believe that they might be honest? Just because? That's your right, but it's just a belief with no basis on fact.
@Peachtree Rex their incompetence is not my problem. Just because something like this MIGHT make them busy is not an argument against it.
This is not distrust, is common sense. It is not a matter of belief or disbelief, but an actual conclusion based on actual facts. They have lied time and time again. Their incompetence speaks volumes. So, I ask you, how can you believe that they might be honest? Just because? That's your right, but it's just a belief with no basis on fact.
I am unsure how you could possibly read any of my words and generate the response you have created. I am unwilling to further engage with you because you constantly misconstrue and misrepresent my points. It is not a productive conversation.
Whenever I participate in such topics, I always get reminded of the huge backlash following the relaunch of XCOM: Enemy Unknown and subsequently, XCOM2 on PC and Consoles. People were bashing the "erroneous" calculation of the shots because they were missing 75%, 89%, even 100% shots (with the latter being due to the game rounding it up), while in essence, there was nothing wrong with the formulae, and it was all about the RNG.
Suffice it to say, I am also relatively displeased with the shuttle success rate on this event. I have some choice words for my crewmen on this one. I have been sending 4 shuttles with an average of 92% success rate, and I am barely holding top 500 while meticulously participating in each 3 hour iteration - simply because I had so many fails, and so few 4/4 successes. Why am I not angry then? Because I had other events where the good old RNGesus was seriously tipping things in my favor, especially with 66-75% shuttles.
I understand why many would be incensed by high percentage success rates yielding bad results, but if you had played XCOM as much as I did, you get so used to it, you just push through further and try to make the best out of a bad situation. It is quite rewarding, in fact.
The "There's millions of shuttles blah blah" argument doesn't hold water. It's almost the reverse Gambler's Fallacy. People think they're too smart to fall for the typical random probability traps, so they go too far in the other direction. If that's you, you don't understand probability properly.
If it really was a case of that, then I wouldn't see failure after failure after failure. I'd instead get hit every so often (you might say.... randomly) with three or four shuttles failing over 90%. But that's not what I observe. I observe high success shuttles failing constantly over the course of many events.
This event, I lost exactly half of my overnight shuttles with the double boost. 8 success, 8 failures. These shuttles were displaying 88%/89%/90%/91% before sending. If one of those overnights had a big fail of 2 or 3 or if I had lost one shuttle each overnight, then THAT is what you call probability. If I lose big each and every night, this is not just simple probability coming to get me. More so when I am not the only one.
When I did use normal boosts during the day my displayed success was 90/93/94/96 on those same shuttles. These shuttles during the day failed once or twice per day, yet the overnight boosts failed very consistently. That's cause for suspicion.
I've been saying for a long time now that the displayed success chance on shuttles (and perhaps in Galaxy events) is not correct and that when the server calculates whether or not a shuttle failed or not, it's using a much lower value than what we're told. This would make a lot of sense in my case. Using overnight boosts adds a very tiny amount to the success percentage, usually no more than 1% for a 3* boost. On the other hand, using 3* skill boosts will add a significant amount when there are multiple seats using that skill or when there are event/bonus crew. In this event, I used nothing but event/bonus crew so the gains from skill boosts would have been significant. Let's assume my actual success rates were lower than displayed to me. Let's say they were close to 70% instead. Getting 50% failures using the double boosts overnight would be close enough for the small sample size of 16 shuttles that I'd chalk that up to RNG. And the skill boosts would bring those 70% chances up into the mid 80% (closer to 90% for shuttles with event crew) and so me seeing so few failures during the day would be expected. This falls very much in line with my suspicion that the displayed success% is NOT the value being used in the calculations.
My success rate in the just completed event was actually substantially higher than the Faction event one week previous - 2 events ago I just squeaked past 120,000 VP to get the 3rd copy of the Threshold reward character; this event, with what I can comfortably say was actually less effort, I easily ended up north of 200,000 VP's. I had numerous missions sent out with between 50% and 70% chance that came back a success - maybe it helps to not have really strong crew, and thereby "avoid" sending shuttles out with a 90%+ chance
Anecdotally, this is what I've experiences as well. I ran Augment missions for a while because I needed 2* Science Experiments...I was failing 3 our of 4 missions each run. Stepped away for a week or two. In that time I picked up a few crew members who needed the 2* Science Experiments and the missions were coming back 3/4 and 4/4 successfully. Unfortunately, I need over 30 of these damn things, so it is going to take quite some time....
Good luck McDuck! I have been EXACTLY where you are now. I also had an immediate need for the 2* science experiments in early December (I believe it was for Mirror Picard) and began doing multiple Augment missions only to have them fail repeatedly. I finally just resolved to move onto other characters that could use my attention and level them instead. After successfully FF/FE a few characters I chanced a return to Augment missions in early January and I was successfully completing them at about a 6:7 ratio. Finally got the needed amount of 2* Science Experiments and was able to FF/FE the characters I'd started earlier. Recently I had a need for the same equipment to complete leveling Graduation Burnham to 100. I had better luck having the 2* Science Experiments drop then, as well as successfully finishing shuttle missions. You'll get there eventually...
I didn't keep track during this event, but my guess is that the % prediction was about right. Did well enough to be Top 1500 and get a 4/4 Gillian Taylor.
No complaints this event in regard to RNG. Did have a funny occurrence where I failed all 4 shuttles with 3* boosts, said screw it, did the +6 hour boost and then passed all of those.
If the end result varies, then the percentages are inaccurate.
thats how RNG works ffs. didn't you understand anything i was explaining in the longer post??
I get it...so if the percentage says 80%, the outcome can vary? The why does it say 80%? Do you understand the difference between RNG and real life random? If not, let me clear that up for you:
Real outcome percentage prediction is based on the number of possible outcomes but it can't be controlled, thus, the results may vary.
RNG is a man made algorithm that is programmed for a certain outcome, thus, the results should not vary, otherwise the programming is flawed and the results can't be predicted.
In other words, do you think a company would allow their income to be determined by random chance?
ok, So you really aren't getting it.
Do you understand the concept of chance?
Like if you flip a coin it has 50-50 chance of being head or tails? Now flip that coin 10 times. repeat. Do you always get exactly 5 tails and 5 heads? Go on, try it. I bet you have lots of faulty coins in your pocket.
edit and if your rng algorithm doesn't show this same behaviour then it isnt R at all but some pseudo deterministic number generator and it should feel bad.
Captain Lvl 99; Vip0; 552 Unique Immortals; Fleet: Omega Molecules; Base Lvl 134 (MAX); Playing Since March 2016.
If the end result varies, then the percentages are inaccurate.
thats how RNG works ffs. didn't you understand anything i was explaining in the longer post??
I get it...so if the percentage says 80%, the outcome can vary? The why does it say 80%? Do you understand the difference between RNG and real life random? If not, let me clear that up for you:
Real outcome percentage prediction is based on the number of possible outcomes but it can't be controlled, thus, the results may vary.
RNG is a man made algorithm that is programmed for a certain outcome, thus, the results should not vary, otherwise the programming is flawed and the results can't be predicted.
In other words, do you think a company would allow their income to be determined by random chance?
ok, So you really aren't getting it.
Do you understand the concept of chance?
Like if you flip a coin it has 50-50 chance of being head or tails? Now flip that coin 10 times. repeat. Do you always get exactly 5 tails and 5 heads? Go on, try it. I bet you have lots of faulty coins in your pocket.
edit and if your rng algorithm doesn't show this same behaviour then it isnt R at all but some pseudo deterministic number generator and it should feel bad.
So, for you, RNG and random chance follow the same rules?
Someone may have already noticed this - but I am not going to read through pages of complaints to see. And I really didn't wan't to share this but... I have vary few shuttles fail. But I always go by the suggested traits - if it says SCI and ENG - I make sure that whoever I fill the slot with has higher SCI and then ENG trait. The reverse is the same ENG and SCI - I make sure that whoever I put in the slot has a higher ENG trait than SCI. If it something like CMD or ENG - I always go with the first trait (CMD in this case) and make sure that CMD is there primary trait. The same goes for one trait slots - I make sure it's the primary trait of whoever I pick. Many times this has lowered my chances from 75% (if I had just picked the top listed crew) to 50% and the shuttle mission is still a success. I would say I am running at a 95% success rate since I started playing this way about a year ago. Maybe I am just lucky.
Whenever I participate in such topics, I always get reminded of the huge backlash following the relaunch of XCOM: Enemy Unknown and subsequently, XCOM2 on PC and Consoles. People were bashing the "erroneous" calculation of the shots because they were missing 75%, 89%, even 100% shots (with the latter being due to the game rounding it up), while in essence, there was nothing wrong with the formulae, and it was all about the RNG.
Suffice it to say, I am also relatively displeased with the shuttle success rate on this event. I have some choice words for my crewmen on this one. I have been sending 4 shuttles with an average of 92% success rate, and I am barely holding top 500 while meticulously participating in each 3 hour iteration - simply because I had so many fails, and so few 4/4 successes. Why am I not angry then? Because I had other events where the good old RNGesus was seriously tipping things in my favor, especially with 66-75% shuttles.
I understand why many would be incensed by high percentage success rates yielding bad results, but if you had played XCOM as much as I did, you get so used to it, you just push through further and try to make the best out of a bad situation. It is quite rewarding, in fact.
In all my XCOM and XCOM2 playing, I never had a 100% shot miss, but I have destroyed controlers throwing them across the room after a high-percentage shot failed leading to a wipeout.
I'm just glad that in STT when a shuttle fails the crew aren't permi-killed! Those kind of stakes would make shuttle percentages more important: smartphones are much more expensive than game controlers.
So, for you, RNG and random chance follow the same rules?
They should if the RNG is done properly.
for a 80% shuttle all the rng has to do is to pick a number, randomly, between 0 and 100. if it is lower than your shuttle percent, that shuttle is a succes, if it's higher the shuttle fails. easy enough?
also I played a lot of XCOM back in the days... Oh the joy of a marine with a turned over action point meter stuck at 0 points and a laser gun, pew pew pew, take the whole block down!! and then some..
edit pew pew!
Captain Lvl 99; Vip0; 552 Unique Immortals; Fleet: Omega Molecules; Base Lvl 134 (MAX); Playing Since March 2016.
Comments
I get it...so if the percentage says 80%, the outcome can vary? The why does it say 80%? Do you understand the difference between RNG and real life random? If not, let me clear that up for you:
Real outcome percentage prediction is based on the number of possible outcomes but it can't be controlled, thus, the results may vary.
RNG is a man made algorithm that is programmed for a certain outcome, thus, the results should not vary, otherwise the programming is flawed and the results can't be predicted.
In other words, do you think a company would allow their income to be determined by random chance?
However annoying it may be, though, this should be happening to everyone else right? Like, RNG might **tsk tsk** but it **tsk tsk** for everyone. The game wins.
But when it comes to events, they're still handing out the rewards. Someone's getting them. And they are subject to the same RNG as I am. Yeah, a good 1500 others tend to do better than me in factions, but that's not surprising since I have a six month old crew and I don't spend a vast fortune on the game.
At the end of the day, RNG **tsk tsk** for everyone some days, but not others. So long as we're all ground equally undo the RNGesus boot of pain, I don't care.
Check out our website to find out more:
https://wiki.tenforwardloungers.com/
I actually decided to not score Top 1000 (for the first time in a pure Faction Event over half a year) to give one space to someone who actually needs Spiderman Barclay more. I got him immortal, and since RNG is kicking me badly in this event, all I'm doing is 3hr-pure shuttles and hoping for some sweet 0* case files, 0* holoprograms and 2* security codes. A few 2* red alerts and 2* covert contacts wouldn't hurt either.
It's copy/paste for one person. But what about fifty? A thousand? That guy that requests it every single week? There gets to be a point where it IS a lot of work.
I never said you shouldn't request it. if they're willing to give it out, then go for it. It looks like they were willing to give it out at one point.
However, to say they have no reasonable reason to not distribute it is, like I said earlier, disingenuous at best. There is, at a minimum, one legitimate reason they would decline to do this: they have decided to spend their limited resources servicing other classes of tickets and decided these are less important.
Plus, given your general distrust of all things DB, why would you even trust any statistics they share with you? (Especially if it refuted your observations) The most likely way to actually get the information you seek in a way that you trust is if you collect it yourself.
This is not distrust, is common sense. It is not a matter of belief or disbelief, but an actual conclusion based on actual facts. They have lied time and time again. Their incompetence speaks volumes. So, I ask you, how can you believe that they might be honest? Just because? That's your right, but it's just a belief with no basis on fact.
I am unsure how you could possibly read any of my words and generate the response you have created. I am unwilling to further engage with you because you constantly misconstrue and misrepresent my points. It is not a productive conversation.
Suffice it to say, I am also relatively displeased with the shuttle success rate on this event. I have some choice words for my crewmen on this one. I have been sending 4 shuttles with an average of 92% success rate, and I am barely holding top 500 while meticulously participating in each 3 hour iteration - simply because I had so many fails, and so few 4/4 successes. Why am I not angry then? Because I had other events where the good old RNGesus was seriously tipping things in my favor, especially with 66-75% shuttles.
I understand why many would be incensed by high percentage success rates yielding bad results, but if you had played XCOM as much as I did, you get so used to it, you just push through further and try to make the best out of a bad situation. It is quite rewarding, in fact.
“Success is the ability to go
from one failure to another
with no loss of enthusiasm.”
– Winston Churchill
If it really was a case of that, then I wouldn't see failure after failure after failure. I'd instead get hit every so often (you might say.... randomly) with three or four shuttles failing over 90%. But that's not what I observe. I observe high success shuttles failing constantly over the course of many events.
This event, I lost exactly half of my overnight shuttles with the double boost. 8 success, 8 failures. These shuttles were displaying 88%/89%/90%/91% before sending. If one of those overnights had a big fail of 2 or 3 or if I had lost one shuttle each overnight, then THAT is what you call probability. If I lose big each and every night, this is not just simple probability coming to get me. More so when I am not the only one.
When I did use normal boosts during the day my displayed success was 90/93/94/96 on those same shuttles. These shuttles during the day failed once or twice per day, yet the overnight boosts failed very consistently. That's cause for suspicion.
I've been saying for a long time now that the displayed success chance on shuttles (and perhaps in Galaxy events) is not correct and that when the server calculates whether or not a shuttle failed or not, it's using a much lower value than what we're told. This would make a lot of sense in my case. Using overnight boosts adds a very tiny amount to the success percentage, usually no more than 1% for a 3* boost. On the other hand, using 3* skill boosts will add a significant amount when there are multiple seats using that skill or when there are event/bonus crew. In this event, I used nothing but event/bonus crew so the gains from skill boosts would have been significant. Let's assume my actual success rates were lower than displayed to me. Let's say they were close to 70% instead. Getting 50% failures using the double boosts overnight would be close enough for the small sample size of 16 shuttles that I'd chalk that up to RNG. And the skill boosts would bring those 70% chances up into the mid 80% (closer to 90% for shuttles with event crew) and so me seeing so few failures during the day would be expected. This falls very much in line with my suspicion that the displayed success% is NOT the value being used in the calculations.
Good luck McDuck! I have been EXACTLY where you are now. I also had an immediate need for the 2* science experiments in early December (I believe it was for Mirror Picard) and began doing multiple Augment missions only to have them fail repeatedly. I finally just resolved to move onto other characters that could use my attention and level them instead. After successfully FF/FE a few characters I chanced a return to Augment missions in early January and I was successfully completing them at about a 6:7 ratio. Finally got the needed amount of 2* Science Experiments and was able to FF/FE the characters I'd started earlier. Recently I had a need for the same equipment to complete leveling Graduation Burnham to 100. I had better luck having the 2* Science Experiments drop then, as well as successfully finishing shuttle missions. You'll get there eventually...
No complaints this event in regard to RNG. Did have a funny occurrence where I failed all 4 shuttles with 3* boosts, said screw it, did the +6 hour boost and then passed all of those.
ok, So you really aren't getting it.
Do you understand the concept of chance?
Like if you flip a coin it has 50-50 chance of being head or tails? Now flip that coin 10 times. repeat. Do you always get exactly 5 tails and 5 heads? Go on, try it. I bet you have lots of faulty coins in your pocket.
edit and if your rng algorithm doesn't show this same behaviour then it isnt R at all but some pseudo deterministic number generator and it should feel bad.
So, for you, RNG and random chance follow the same rules?
In all my XCOM and XCOM2 playing, I never had a 100% shot miss, but I have destroyed controlers throwing them across the room after a high-percentage shot failed leading to a wipeout.
I'm just glad that in STT when a shuttle fails the crew aren't permi-killed! Those kind of stakes would make shuttle percentages more important: smartphones are much more expensive than game controlers.
They should if the RNG is done properly.
for a 80% shuttle all the rng has to do is to pick a number, randomly, between 0 and 100. if it is lower than your shuttle percent, that shuttle is a succes, if it's higher the shuttle fails. easy enough?
also I played a lot of XCOM back in the days... Oh the joy of a marine with a turned over action point meter stuck at 0 points and a laser gun, pew pew pew, take the whole block down!! and then some..
edit pew pew!