Like I said before, it's unethical to continue running Faction events with this problem still present. Shows DB's lack of integrity, as if there were any allusions to the contrary.
A "stealth fix" would still show a decided lack of integrity because that would be DB skirting responsibility by not even acknowledging that the bug existed in the first place. We've been complaining about the problems with shuttle missions displayed percent vs actual win percent for years now and DB has repeatedly said there was no bug. The closest we've gotten to an acknowledgement was Shan sending the info in this thread to the team to be "investigated".
In other words, "If we don't say we fixed it then we can say there never was a problem in the first place."
I am not going to defend either side here, just offer what might help as an explanation. Also, I think it is never a good idea to call foul in the form of saying "DB's lack of integrity", because they haven't fixed something you cannot prove is broken.
I am absolutely NOT bragging here, just sharing info...
First off, several months ago, when I was still a level 50 or so, I was experiencing the same things. Fail after fail after fail. Frustrating to no end! I spent over 200 hours compiling data from Faction events, trying to find the problem, and went on to do the same with daily Faction Missions, since I noticed they were failing too often as well. When I compared notes with a few other players on the forum, we still had no hard conclusions.
Most of my Fleet mates also continually complain about the shuttle fails, and most of them are <level 58.
It was only weeks later that I went through an entire faction event (at then level 58, and with considerably better crew), with only 4 fails. That had never happened! I conceded somewhat to the element that I did have over 20 bonus crew and 2 event crew maxed out. So I waited for the next one. Again, only a handful of fails, I believe it was 6 or 7 or so. I only had 12 bonus crew for that event.
Fast forward another 7 weeks, and I went through an entire Faction Event with NO FAILS! Part of it was careful strategy planning due to the "AND vs. OR" ordeal, and carefully selecting crew and boosts accordingly. (Note: I used 3* time boosts or no boosts at all and got to VP4000 before I switched to regular boosts.)
In the last 2 Faction events, I have had less than desirable amount of bonus crew, but still only 2-4 total fails. And I got to 4000VP shuttles WITHOUT jump starting in <18 hours from the start.
The difference? Gold crew, plain and simple. All crew I use for Faction Events now are newer SR FF/FE (meaning they came out on in the last 2-3 months, so power creep in effect), or my high level Gold crew, of which I have over 40 at level 100, and quite a few FF, or at least 3/5-4/5. Look at and compare the stats. The spread difference is huge between gold and purple for %.
Observing that I can use time boost at any time when I am at VP4000, and get a 7/8+ success rate, I could probably finish much higher, but as you know, the difference between finishing an event in 76th place vs finishing 1000th place is virtually identical for rewards. So I have to shoot for 50th or better, or save resources for the next event and take the win.
I have effectively figured out a way to use the RNG of the game to my advantage, which carries over into the Gauntlet as well.
It is IMHO that there is nothing wrong with the shuttle missions, showing correct/incorrect % or otherwise, just that it is BY DESIGN meant to be hard and the % would "look" the same for different crew, but actually be higher based on the potential "RNG skill spread".
(What I am calling "RNG skill spread", I can only find reference from DB as calling it "hidden/unlisted skill" – e.g. the numbers in parenthesis after their skill number)
For example (With NO Starbase bonuses): 1701 Jadzia Dax (4/4* FF) vs. Lt Jadzia Dax (2/5* lvl 100)
Both very strong in SCI.
1701 Jadzia rates a 813 with +(61–128) RNG spread
Lt Jadzia Dax only rates a 790 but has a +(196–418) RNG spread
The % of that shuttle slot for both crew would surely show within about 1%, but the RNG can let Lt Jadzia Dax go up to 28% higher total. 28%! Just for being a Gold.
Flame me if you wish, this is only my observation based on over 6 months of data collecting.
I hope this helps, I am sure it just frustrate some people more. All I can say is keep at it if you are below level 60 and the game will improve as you get higher.
I am not going to defend either side here, just offer what might help as an explanation. Also, I think it is never a good idea to call foul in the form of saying "DB's lack of integrity", because they haven't fixed something you cannot prove is broken.
I am absolutely NOT bragging here, just sharing info...
First off, several months ago, when I was still a level 50 or so, I was experiencing the same things. Fail after fail after fail. Frustrating to no end! I spent over 200 hours compiling data from Faction events, trying to find the problem, and went on to do the same with daily Faction Missions, since I noticed they were failing too often as well. When I compared notes with a few other players on the forum, we still had no hard conclusions.
Most of my Fleet mates also continually complain about the shuttle fails, and most of them are <level 58.
It was only weeks later that I went through an entire faction event (at then level 58, and with considerably better crew), with only 4 fails. That had never happened! I conceded somewhat to the element that I did have over 20 bonus crew and 2 event crew maxed out. So I waited for the next one. Again, only a handful of fails, I believe it was 6 or 7 or so. I only had 12 bonus crew for that event.
Fast forward another 7 weeks, and I went through an entire Faction Event with NO FAILS! Part of it was careful strategy planning due to the "AND vs. OR" ordeal, and carefully selecting crew and boosts accordingly. (Note: I used 3* time boosts or no boosts at all and got to VP4000 before I switched to regular boosts.)
In the last 2 Faction events, I have had less than desirable amount of bonus crew, but still only 2-4 total fails. And I got to 4000VP shuttles WITHOUT jump starting in <18 hours from the start.
The difference? Gold crew, plain and simple. All crew I use for Faction Events now are newer SR FF/FE (meaning they came out on in the last 2-3 months, so power creep in effect), or my high level Gold crew, of which I have over 40 at level 100, and quite a few FF, or at least 3/5-4/5. Look at and compare the stats. The spread difference is huge between gold and purple for %.
Observing that I can use time boost at any time when I am at VP4000, and get a 7/8+ success rate, I could probably finish much higher, but as you know, the difference between finishing an event in 76th place vs finishing 1000th place is virtually identical for rewards. So I have to shoot for 50th or better, or save resources for the next event and take the win.
I have effectively figured out a way to use the RNG of the game to my advantage, which carries over into the Gauntlet as well.
It is IMHO that there is nothing wrong with the shuttle missions, showing correct/incorrect % or otherwise, just that it is BY DESIGN meant to be hard and the % would "look" the same for different crew, but actually be higher based on the potential "RNG skill spread".
(What I am calling "RNG skill spread", I can only find reference from DB as calling it "hidden/unlisted skill" – e.g. the numbers in parenthesis after their skill number)
For example (With NO Starbase bonuses): 1701 Jadzia Dax (4/4* FF) vs. Lt Jadzia Dax (2/5* lvl 100)
Both very strong in SCI.
1701 Jadzia rates a 813 with +(61–128) RNG spread
Lt Jadzia Dax only rates a 790 but has a +(196–418) RNG spread
The % of that shuttle slot for both crew would surely show within about 1%, but the RNG can let Lt Jadzia Dax go up to 28% higher total. 28%! Just for being a Gold.
Flame me if you wish, this is only my observation based on over 6 months of data collecting.
I hope this helps, I am sure it just frustrate some people more. All I can say is keep at it if you are below level 60 and the game will improve as you get higher.
Try loading AND slots "backwards" for a while and see what you think. The single slot FED missions are the best to see it in action.
Speculation is that it might be fixed with the recent server update, but jury is still out.
I am not going to defend either side here, just offer what might help as an explanation. Also, I think it is never a good idea to call foul in the form of saying "DB's lack of integrity", because they haven't fixed something you cannot prove is broken.
I am absolutely NOT bragging here, just sharing info...
First off, several months ago, when I was still a level 50 or so, I was experiencing the same things. Fail after fail after fail. Frustrating to no end! I spent over 200 hours compiling data from Faction events, trying to find the problem, and went on to do the same with daily Faction Missions, since I noticed they were failing too often as well. When I compared notes with a few other players on the forum, we still had no hard conclusions.
Most of my Fleet mates also continually complain about the shuttle fails, and most of them are <level 58.
It was only weeks later that I went through an entire faction event (at then level 58, and with considerably better crew), with only 4 fails. That had never happened! I conceded somewhat to the element that I did have over 20 bonus crew and 2 event crew maxed out. So I waited for the next one. Again, only a handful of fails, I believe it was 6 or 7 or so. I only had 12 bonus crew for that event.
Fast forward another 7 weeks, and I went through an entire Faction Event with NO FAILS! Part of it was careful strategy planning due to the "AND vs. OR" ordeal, and carefully selecting crew and boosts accordingly. (Note: I used 3* time boosts or no boosts at all and got to VP4000 before I switched to regular boosts.)
In the last 2 Faction events, I have had less than desirable amount of bonus crew, but still only 2-4 total fails. And I got to 4000VP shuttles WITHOUT jump starting in <18 hours from the start.
The difference? Gold crew, plain and simple. All crew I use for Faction Events now are newer SR FF/FE (meaning they came out on in the last 2-3 months, so power creep in effect), or my high level Gold crew, of which I have over 40 at level 100, and quite a few FF, or at least 3/5-4/5. Look at and compare the stats. The spread difference is huge between gold and purple for %.
Observing that I can use time boost at any time when I am at VP4000, and get a 7/8+ success rate, I could probably finish much higher, but as you know, the difference between finishing an event in 76th place vs finishing 1000th place is virtually identical for rewards. So I have to shoot for 50th or better, or save resources for the next event and take the win.
I have effectively figured out a way to use the RNG of the game to my advantage, which carries over into the Gauntlet as well.
It is IMHO that there is nothing wrong with the shuttle missions, showing correct/incorrect % or otherwise, just that it is BY DESIGN meant to be hard and the % would "look" the same for different crew, but actually be higher based on the potential "RNG skill spread".
(What I am calling "RNG skill spread", I can only find reference from DB as calling it "hidden/unlisted skill" – e.g. the numbers in parenthesis after their skill number)
For example (With NO Starbase bonuses): 1701 Jadzia Dax (4/4* FF) vs. Lt Jadzia Dax (2/5* lvl 100)
Both very strong in SCI.
1701 Jadzia rates a 813 with +(61–128) RNG spread
Lt Jadzia Dax only rates a 790 but has a +(196–418) RNG spread
The % of that shuttle slot for both crew would surely show within about 1%, but the RNG can let Lt Jadzia Dax go up to 28% higher total. 28%! Just for being a Gold.
Flame me if you wish, this is only my observation based on over 6 months of data collecting.
I hope this helps, I am sure it just frustrate some people more. All I can say is keep at it if you are below level 60 and the game will improve as you get higher.
Try loading AND slots "backwards" for a while and see what you think. The single slot FED missions are the best to see it in action.
Speculation is that it might be fixed with the recent server update, but jury is still out.
Exactly. I have been using nothing but immortalized golds on shuttles for in the neighborhood of a year. I suffered the perplexing fails that would annoy me to no end. All over 90% yet two fail way too often. Once I read about the solution as determined by the phenomenal people who exposed it, I have been failing less than ten throughout entire events. I’ve had three or four events with this new information which is plenty to see the trend. Point is I’ve been using the same crew through all of this. I can say without a doubt, these people are right. The AND missions are broken.
I am not going to defend either side here, just offer what might help as an explanation. Also, I think it is never a good idea to call foul in the form of saying "DB's lack of integrity", because they haven't fixed something you cannot prove is broken.
What you seem to have missed is that is HAS been statistically proven to be broken.
I am not going to defend either side here, just offer what might help as an explanation. Also, I think it is never a good idea to call foul in the form of saying "DB's lack of integrity", because they haven't fixed something you cannot prove is broken.
What you seem to have missed is that is HAS been statistically proven to be broken.
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him read the math I guess.
This makes this event difficult. I'm not seeing any good shuttle missions with MED as primary, so Darth Bashir is kind of useless in this event?
Terran: Enlisted by force - 4 seater, one med that is AND with com but he will be good even without Com bonus.
31: Fragments of battle - 4 seater, one med
31: A future in jeopardy - 5 seater but with three med - drop three Bashirs, Mirror Picard, T'Kuvma (or whoever you have on sec and com) and med booster and it's actually a fine one probably.
Either of three is fine enough for 3rd-4th shuttle depending on what are you farming. If you are purely to win event then yes, he doesn't fit any 3-seater.
Soong is a bit better (and comparable before Bashir gets 3rd star) but not by much. Sci do not shine in this event too.
Would've been better if not for AND bug. Bashir a bit, Soong by much.
PS. Mine and shared Bashirs cover sec/dip and dip/sec on Terran 3-seaters currently. Not the best use by far....
Terran: Enlisted by force - 4 seater, one med that is AND with com but he will be good even without Com bonus.
Oh, I missed that one somehow. Hmm, I'll have to see if I should switch to Terran. Currently doing both Cardassian and Section 31. Seems like Cardassian and Terran might be better.
im annoyed with the number of Eng AND Sci, regardless of faction. Most dax variants have a greater Science value.
+1 on the comments about the MED, did you all notice the Sec AND Med? Im not rich with 5*s, but the only crew im aware for this bungled slot is Rakal Troi
im annoyed with the number of Eng AND Sci, regardless of faction. Most dax variants have a greater Science value.
+1 on the comments about the MED, did you all notice the Sec AND Med? Im not rich with 5*s, but the only crew im aware for this bungled slot is Rakal Troi
im annoyed with the number of Eng AND Sci, regardless of faction. Most dax variants have a greater Science value.
+1 on the comments about the MED, did you all notice the Sec AND Med? Im not rich with 5*s, but the only crew im aware for this bungled slot is Rakal Troi
I thought I remembered there was a thread with more data testing post-fix, but this has been the best I've been able to find. While a somewhat small sample set (a few hundred individual runs between multiple people's posts), this gave me enough comfort to run AND shuttles in any order ever since. That's a whole lot of faction events and hybrids, and I've never felt significantly RNG shuttle burned since.
Unfortunately when trying to prove a negative, people are more likely to expend resources (time) to gather data for change. Once the change seems accomplished, we're less likely to put so much effort in proving the positive outcome.
I thought I remembered there was a thread with more data testing post-fix, but this has been the best I've been able to find. While a somewhat small sample set (a few hundred individual runs between multiple people's posts), this gave me enough comfort to run AND shuttles in any order ever since. That's a whole lot of faction events and hybrids, and I've never felt significantly RNG shuttle burned since.
Unfortunately when trying to prove a negative, people are more likely to expend resources (time) to gather data for change. Once the change seems accomplished, we're less likely to put so much effort in proving the positive outcome.
Agreed, It seems pretty good, and I ran a batch of shuttles that should have been disasters and they all came out OK. Since then I've been following the % shown and do pretty well. Sometimes I fail 1/4 despite showing 92%, sometimes I hit 100% for most of an event. I think we are in the clear
This is just a small sample size from 1 player, but...
Results from the the past 6 faction events (at 4000 vp), filling seats based on skill pairs with the best scores, not skill order.
Temporal Misalignment (2) - 37/40 (92.5% actual, 94.2% predicted)
Faster Future - 75/79 (94.9% actual, 92.8% predicted)
Stream of Lives - 63/71 (88.7% actual, 93.0% predicted)
Crime of Last Century - 105/110 (95.5% actual, 94.7% predicted)
One Step Behind - 45/48 (93.8% actual, 96.1% predicted)
Everywhere at Once - 121/124 (97.6% actual, 95.1% predicted)
Other than a bit of bad RNG during Stream of Lives, these outcomes are within 1-2 successes or failures of their predicted rates.
As far as I'm concerned, there is no bug at this time. I totally get it if players are suspicious and want to stick with skill-order seating, but any string of bad outcomes is just bad luck (in my opinion).
I rarely pay attention to skill order anymore. It's my subjective observation that the percentages are fairly accurate.
I totally agree for new Faction events but I feel like the daily shuttle missions tend to fail more often if I ignore the sequence of skills. But I lack a decent base of data as I again use to avoid swapped skills on the regular missions after only a few sets of shuttles ignoring the sequence and having many fails (which could of course have been a stupid incident).
I just need the faction stuff too much to thoroughly test it at the risk of many fails.
Also, for reruns (or flashbacks) I never know if the issue was fixed then already so I always use to stay on the cautious side.
Wir, die Mirror Tribbles [MiT] haben freie Plätze zu vergeben. Kein Zwang und kein Stress, dafür aber Spaß, Discord und eine nette, hilfsbereite Gemeinschaft, incl. voll ausgebauter Starbase und täglich 700 ISM.
For non event shuttles, the easiest way to test is to run the following two federation missions repeatedly over several days.
Investigate Corruption DIP and CMD, test with a crew with high cmd and no dip. For instance, my Niners Sisko is CMD 1323 and that shows as 76%. If the shuttle is bugged the actual success rate would be based off of 1323/4 and be ~26%.
Rescue Citizen Captives DIP and SEC, test with a crew with High SEC and no DIP, For instance, my Ripper is SEC 1532 and that shows as 84%. If the shuttle is bugged the actual success rate would be based off of 1532/4 and be ~28%.
As this is a deliberate controlled test (and not based off data with selection bias) the two values you are testing are so far apart percentage wise a sample of 20-30 runs each will give a pretty good indication of which values are the true percentages 76%/84% or 26%/28%.
For non event shuttles, the easiest way to test is to run the following two federation missions repeatedly over several days.
Investigate Corruption DIP and CMD, test with a crew with high cmd and no dip. For instance, my Niners Sisko is CMD 1323 and that shows as 76%. If the shuttle is bugged the actual success rate would be based off of 1323/4 and be ~26%.
Rescue Citizen Captives DIP and SEC, test with a crew with High SEC and no DIP, For instance, my Ripper is SEC 1532 and that shows as 84%. If the shuttle is bugged the actual success rate would be based off of 1532/4 and be ~28%.
As this is a deliberate controlled test (and not based off data with selection bias) the two values you are testing are so far apart percentage wise a sample of 20-30 runs each will give a pretty good indication of which values are the true percentages 76%/84% or 26%/28%.
This sounds like you already tried it, did you?
Wir, die Mirror Tribbles [MiT] haben freie Plätze zu vergeben. Kein Zwang und kein Stress, dafür aber Spaß, Discord und eine nette, hilfsbereite Gemeinschaft, incl. voll ausgebauter Starbase und täglich 700 ISM.
For non event shuttles, the easiest way to test is to run the following two federation missions repeatedly over several days.
Investigate Corruption DIP and CMD, test with a crew with high cmd and no dip. For instance, my Niners Sisko is CMD 1323 and that shows as 76%. If the shuttle is bugged the actual success rate would be based off of 1323/4 and be ~26%.
Rescue Citizen Captives DIP and SEC, test with a crew with High SEC and no DIP, For instance, my Ripper is SEC 1532 and that shows as 84%. If the shuttle is bugged the actual success rate would be based off of 1532/4 and be ~28%.
As this is a deliberate controlled test (and not based off data with selection bias) the two values you are testing are so far apart percentage wise a sample of 20-30 runs each will give a pretty good indication of which values are the true percentages 76%/84% or 26%/28%.
This sounds like you already tried it, did you?
Started running some this morning since this thread was resurrected, I think a few people tried right after the shuttle changes last year and it seemed fixed but I never verified myself at that point.
I Did notice during the last event, when sending more than 6 shuttles I began running out of skill pair combos for proper shuttle seats, so started sending single skill in those. Surprised the result came out about the same as with or without combined pair skills. I had a single shuttle fail the whole event, and that was shuttle #6 Friday night with 3*-9 hour boost, so I expected it to fail, but sent it "just in case".
Comments
Voyage Estimator Tool thread
In other words, "If we don't say we fixed it then we can say there never was a problem in the first place."
It's not like we haven't seen this behavior before.
I am absolutely NOT bragging here, just sharing info...
First off, several months ago, when I was still a level 50 or so, I was experiencing the same things. Fail after fail after fail. Frustrating to no end! I spent over 200 hours compiling data from Faction events, trying to find the problem, and went on to do the same with daily Faction Missions, since I noticed they were failing too often as well. When I compared notes with a few other players on the forum, we still had no hard conclusions.
Most of my Fleet mates also continually complain about the shuttle fails, and most of them are <level 58.
It was only weeks later that I went through an entire faction event (at then level 58, and with considerably better crew), with only 4 fails. That had never happened! I conceded somewhat to the element that I did have over 20 bonus crew and 2 event crew maxed out. So I waited for the next one. Again, only a handful of fails, I believe it was 6 or 7 or so. I only had 12 bonus crew for that event.
Fast forward another 7 weeks, and I went through an entire Faction Event with NO FAILS! Part of it was careful strategy planning due to the "AND vs. OR" ordeal, and carefully selecting crew and boosts accordingly. (Note: I used 3* time boosts or no boosts at all and got to VP4000 before I switched to regular boosts.)
In the last 2 Faction events, I have had less than desirable amount of bonus crew, but still only 2-4 total fails. And I got to 4000VP shuttles WITHOUT jump starting in <18 hours from the start.
The difference? Gold crew, plain and simple. All crew I use for Faction Events now are newer SR FF/FE (meaning they came out on in the last 2-3 months, so power creep in effect), or my high level Gold crew, of which I have over 40 at level 100, and quite a few FF, or at least 3/5-4/5. Look at and compare the stats. The spread difference is huge between gold and purple for %.
Observing that I can use time boost at any time when I am at VP4000, and get a 7/8+ success rate, I could probably finish much higher, but as you know, the difference between finishing an event in 76th place vs finishing 1000th place is virtually identical for rewards. So I have to shoot for 50th or better, or save resources for the next event and take the win.
I have effectively figured out a way to use the RNG of the game to my advantage, which carries over into the Gauntlet as well.
It is IMHO that there is nothing wrong with the shuttle missions, showing correct/incorrect % or otherwise, just that it is BY DESIGN meant to be hard and the % would "look" the same for different crew, but actually be higher based on the potential "RNG skill spread".
(What I am calling "RNG skill spread", I can only find reference from DB as calling it "hidden/unlisted skill" – e.g. the numbers in parenthesis after their skill number)
For example (With NO Starbase bonuses): 1701 Jadzia Dax (4/4* FF) vs. Lt Jadzia Dax (2/5* lvl 100)
Both very strong in SCI.
1701 Jadzia rates a 813 with +(61–128) RNG spread
Lt Jadzia Dax only rates a 790 but has a +(196–418) RNG spread
The % of that shuttle slot for both crew would surely show within about 1%, but the RNG can let Lt Jadzia Dax go up to 28% higher total. 28%! Just for being a Gold.
the math: 1701 Jadzia minimum 813+61 = 874
Lt Jadzia Dax 790+418 = 1208 = 28% higher proficiency possible.
Flame me if you wish, this is only my observation based on over 6 months of data collecting.
I hope this helps, I am sure it just frustrate some people more. All I can say is keep at it if you are below level 60 and the game will improve as you get higher.
Try loading AND slots "backwards" for a while and see what you think. The single slot FED missions are the best to see it in action.
Speculation is that it might be fixed with the recent server update, but jury is still out.
Exactly. I have been using nothing but immortalized golds on shuttles for in the neighborhood of a year. I suffered the perplexing fails that would annoy me to no end. All over 90% yet two fail way too often. Once I read about the solution as determined by the phenomenal people who exposed it, I have been failing less than ten throughout entire events. I’ve had three or four events with this new information which is plenty to see the trend. Point is I’ve been using the same crew through all of this. I can say without a doubt, these people are right. The AND missions are broken.
What you seem to have missed is that is HAS been statistically proven to be broken.
You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him read the math I guess.
31: Fragments of battle - 4 seater, one med
31: A future in jeopardy - 5 seater but with three med - drop three Bashirs, Mirror Picard, T'Kuvma (or whoever you have on sec and com) and med booster and it's actually a fine one probably.
Either of three is fine enough for 3rd-4th shuttle depending on what are you farming. If you are purely to win event then yes, he doesn't fit any 3-seater.
Soong is a bit better (and comparable before Bashir gets 3rd star) but not by much. Sci do not shine in this event too.
Would've been better if not for AND bug. Bashir a bit, Soong by much.
PS. Mine and shared Bashirs cover sec/dip and dip/sec on Terran 3-seaters currently. Not the best use by far....
Oh, I missed that one somehow. Hmm, I'll have to see if I should switch to Terran. Currently doing both Cardassian and Section 31. Seems like Cardassian and Terran might be better.
Cardassian has a 3 seater, Dulling The Silver Tongue which would work well with Soong. Currently using the SCI/DIP slot for a 2/4 Princess Jadzia.
+1 on the comments about the MED, did you all notice the Sec AND Med? Im not rich with 5*s, but the only crew im aware for this bungled slot is Rakal Troi
There are a few more:
Thank You!. I just have Rakal Troi. =P
I had 90+ shuttle missions fail too often for just a random effect
I am too skiddish to try it. I still go by the order listed when staffing my shuttles just to be on the safe side
https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/5781/did-shuttle-revamp-include-addressing-the-and-issue/p3
Unfortunately when trying to prove a negative, people are more likely to expend resources (time) to gather data for change. Once the change seems accomplished, we're less likely to put so much effort in proving the positive outcome.
Agreed, It seems pretty good, and I ran a batch of shuttles that should have been disasters and they all came out OK. Since then I've been following the % shown and do pretty well. Sometimes I fail 1/4 despite showing 92%, sometimes I hit 100% for most of an event. I think we are in the clear
Results from the the past 6 faction events (at 4000 vp), filling seats based on skill pairs with the best scores, not skill order.
Temporal Misalignment (2) - 37/40 (92.5% actual, 94.2% predicted)
Faster Future - 75/79 (94.9% actual, 92.8% predicted)
Stream of Lives - 63/71 (88.7% actual, 93.0% predicted)
Crime of Last Century - 105/110 (95.5% actual, 94.7% predicted)
One Step Behind - 45/48 (93.8% actual, 96.1% predicted)
Everywhere at Once - 121/124 (97.6% actual, 95.1% predicted)
Other than a bit of bad RNG during Stream of Lives, these outcomes are within 1-2 successes or failures of their predicted rates.
As far as I'm concerned, there is no bug at this time. I totally get it if players are suspicious and want to stick with skill-order seating, but any string of bad outcomes is just bad luck (in my opinion).
I totally agree for new Faction events but I feel like the daily shuttle missions tend to fail more often if I ignore the sequence of skills. But I lack a decent base of data as I again use to avoid swapped skills on the regular missions after only a few sets of shuttles ignoring the sequence and having many fails (which could of course have been a stupid incident).
I just need the faction stuff too much to thoroughly test it at the risk of many fails.
Also, for reruns (or flashbacks) I never know if the issue was fixed then already so I always use to stay on the cautious side.
Investigate Corruption DIP and CMD, test with a crew with high cmd and no dip. For instance, my Niners Sisko is CMD 1323 and that shows as 76%. If the shuttle is bugged the actual success rate would be based off of 1323/4 and be ~26%.
Rescue Citizen Captives DIP and SEC, test with a crew with High SEC and no DIP, For instance, my Ripper is SEC 1532 and that shows as 84%. If the shuttle is bugged the actual success rate would be based off of 1532/4 and be ~28%.
As this is a deliberate controlled test (and not based off data with selection bias) the two values you are testing are so far apart percentage wise a sample of 20-30 runs each will give a pretty good indication of which values are the true percentages 76%/84% or 26%/28%.
This sounds like you already tried it, did you?
Started running some this morning since this thread was resurrected, I think a few people tried right after the shuttle changes last year and it seemed fixed but I never verified myself at that point.
The question for me is has it been fixed for rerun faction events?
Also, ya know, an apology and compensation would be nice, but that request always used to fall on deaf ears so I dont hold out hope.